The Last Hurrah
So, we have less than two weeks left in the regular season. There is plenty of instability in closer land, but very little time for anything to happen. At this point, you're playing on luck. You can make your own luck by picking up setup men in the most volatile situations, like with Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Detroit. Just be warned; you might not get anything for your troubles.
With so little time left, there really isn't much to say. If you're still in the running, you should have an advantage on the waiver wire. The bulk of owners who have faded into oblivion don't care if Kevin Quackenbush gets a couple more save opportunities. If Joe Nathan gets set aside for Joakim Soria, you'll probably only need to beat a couple guys to the wire. Still, if a save or two can make or break your season, it might pay to keep Twitter running for instant updates.
Tier 1: Elite (4)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
It was an uneventful week in our top tier. The upper crust combined to pitch just six times. The big news was the return of Holland from an eight day respite. His triceps seems to be fine. Kimbrel allowed a solo home run in his most recent appearance, which was a full week ago.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (4)
David Robertson, New York Yankees
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
The Yankees probably pushed Robertson a little too far last week. After throwing 2.2 innings over the previous two days, Robertson appeared for the third day in a row last Sunday and took a blown save loss. I'm comfortable chalking this one up to workload.
Welcome back Doolittle. His return adds some depth to the top end of the reliever spectrum. He's appeared twice since returning with two innings, three strikeouts, and the minimum number of batters faced.
What's Giles doing here? It's quite possible you are blissfully unaware of Jonathan Papelbon's crotch grab, which earned him a week's suspension. So Giles will serve as closer for seven days. On the one hand, it's just a week. On the other hand, it's over half of the remaining season. Giles has a 1.08 ERA supported by a 1.28 FIP. His 12.96 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, and 15.7 swinging strike rate are similarly excellent.
There is a chance, however remote, that Giles retains the job going forward. By that, I mean this year AND next season. The Phillies needed an excuse to set Papelbon aside, and he may have just handed it to them. It should be an interesting story to watch unfold.
Tier 3: Rock Steady (5)
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
The difference between Britton and the pitchers in the top two tiers is strikeout rate. His 76.8 percent ground ball rate is wholly unreasonable, and it's a big reason for his excellent 1.74 ERA. While he has allowed one out of five fly balls to leave the yard, he still ranks in the top 50 of all relievers in home runs allowed per inning. He saved one in two appearances last week.
Melancon picked up two saves in four scoreless outings. While the club probably wishes they still had Jason Grilli for added bullpen depth, Melancon has helped them forget their erstwhile closer.
Allen grabbed a couple easy saves last week. He sometimes appears for more than one inning, as evidenced by his four out save last night. Multi-inning appearances could open up a spot save or two for Bryan Shaw.
Week after week, I've said one thing about Fernando Rodney – watch out for walks. He didn't forewarn us in any way that he would meltdown and walk four on Saturday. With so little time left in the season, you may just want to preemptively grab Danny Farquhar. The Mariners have no margin of error with their late game leads, so they won't be patient if Rodney blows another.
Tier 4: The Mid-Tier (4)
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Since returning from a minor neck injury, Perkins has allowed six runs in 2.1 innings. Each outing has included a home run. In the process he picked up a save, two blown saves, a loss, and a vulture win. Jared Burton is the next guy in the pen if Perkins is shelved. Neither pitcher makes for a useful asset over the remainder of the season, although Perkins could recover his previous form (hence his ranking here).
It was a confusing week for the Rays bullpen. Manager Joe Madden likes the committee approach, so it's not a surprise when McGee doesn't get a save opportunity. Even so, McGee blew two saves on home runs and picked up a hold in his other appearance. Brad Boxberger also allowed two home runs, and Grant Balfour was the only Ray to earn a save. McGee still looks like the guy to own.
Storen has stolen the closer job in Washington without a second thought. He's picked up saves in each of the last three games, so either Tyler Clippard or Rafael Soriano should be on call tonight.
Tier 5: Questions (5)
Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Edward Mujica, Boston Red Sox
It wasn't a great week for Reed. He allowed three runs over three innings. He worked hard to get through those innings with a total of 18 batters faced and eight hits allowed. Arizona isn't going to mix up the pecking order, especially with Brad Ziegler out for the year. Surprisingly, Oliver Perez may be the setup man now.
The Cardinals are trying to control Rosenthal's workload. After he pitched on Friday, Pat Neshek got the save opportunity on Saturday and converted it. Rosenthal blew yesterday's save with the help of a couple walks. The lesson here is to handcuff Neshek. He could earn a couple more saves.
Casilla allowed a home run last week in a non-save situation. He also converted his 16th save. It sure looks like the job is his and his alone. Sergio Romo isn't banging down the door or anything.
It's hard to look past Rodriguez's problem with home runs, but he tried his best to redeem himself over the last week. He picked up three saves and a win for a Brewers club in desperate need of every victory. The Crew is still four games back in the NL Central and 1.5 behind the Pirates for the second Wild Card. They'll need their closer to remain on point to edge into the postseason.
The big news with Mujica is the return of Koji Uehara. He's appeared twice and recorded four strikeouts in two innings of work. His splitter still isn't in tip top form, which is what caused the demotion in the first place. I think the Sox will keep the pressure off Uehara for the rest of the season, but you never know.
Tier 6: Roller Coasters (8)
Kevin Quackenbush, Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres
Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
Chad Qualls, Houston Astros
LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Jake Petricka, Chicago White Sox
Quackenbush has been shaky as the Padres interim closer. Benoit is expected to return on Friday, so the window is closing for Quackenbush. He may retain the job through the weekend, but expect Benoit to take over soon if healthy.
Every time I consider Mejia, I say to myself “the Mets must be ready to shut him down.” So far, no dice. Mejia had a solid week with two saves in three appearances. I don't really understand why the club is tempting fate and an injury cascade, but it doesn't look like they're going to back down.
Qualls picked up a save in his only appearance since his most recent blown save fiasco against the A's. Janssen also tossed one frame for an easy save. Meanwhile, Hawkins coughed up two runs for the second time in a row. He had over a week between outings.
It was a good week for Neftali Feliz, who pitched three innings and retired all nine batters faced. I wouldn't get overly excited with such a low strikeout rate, but his job is safe if nothing else. I expect the Rangers to sign a closer over the offseason.
Nathan started the week strong with a save, then he picked up another save while allowing one run. Then he took a blown save loss while allowing two runs. Soria picked up the save on Monday, but only because Nathan had worked two days in a row. I would install Soria as the closer were I the Tigers, but they're strangely committed to Nathan.
Petricka has a good chance to finish the season with a sub-3.00 ERA. I'd be happy to bet he has an ERA over 4.00 next season or throws fewer than 30 big league innings. He's just not very good. He blew the save on Monday in a week that also included a normal save and a win.
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Injured
Jesse Crain (calf, biceps), Houston Astros
Bobby Parnell (elbow), New York Mets
Jim Henderson (shoulder), Milwaukee Brewers
Joaquin Benoit (shoulder inflammation), San Diego Padres
Our injury list halved in size since last week with Benoit also preparing to return. It looks like Friday is the target date.
The Deposed
Jim Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
Jose Veras, Chicago Cubs
Josh Fields, Houston Astros
John Axford, Cleveland Indians
Jim Johnson, Oakland Athletics
Jason Grilli, Anaheim Angels
Ernesto Frieri, Pittsburgh Pirates
Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants
Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays
Ronald Belisario, Chicago White Sox
Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels
Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers
Zach Putnam, Chicago White Sox
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
If this were the middle of the season, I wouldn't bother listing Papelbon here. Since he'll miss over half of the remaining schedule, I think it fits. Long live Ken Giles.
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The Steals Department
For a last minute save in the stolen base category, you'll need a combination of availability on the waiver wire, frequent steal attempts, and plenty of playing time. Those elements don't often combine. When they do, it's in the form of a one or two category player. That said, here goes...
Jordan Schafer, Ender Inciarte, and Jose Ramirez are probably the upper class of stolen base options. They all bat first or second for their respective clubs. While none of them exhibits power, their position in the lineup could let them get lucky with some batting average help or runs scored in addition to a few swipes. Ramirez has eligibility as a second baseman and shortstop, which is a nice bonus. He could also drive in Michael Bourn on occasion.
Gerardo Parra is a little more well-rounded and he plays in a hitter's park. The Brewers start him against all right-handed pitchers, and he's capable of contributing across all categories in a 10 day burst.
The Phillies are now using Domonic Brown in a platoon role. And it's kind of working. Unlike the others listed here, he can swat some home runs (he actually has impressive raw power, but it rarely shows in-game). He could add some RBI too.
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
The difference between Britton and the pitchers in the top two tiers is strikeout rate. His 76.8 percent ground ball rate is wholly unreasonable, and it's a big reason for his excellent 1.74 ERA. While he has allowed one out of five fly balls to leave the yard, he still ranks in the top 50 of all relievers in home runs allowed per inning. He saved one in two appearances last week.
Melancon picked up two saves in four scoreless outings. While the club probably wishes they still had Jason Grilli for added bullpen depth, Melancon has helped them forget their erstwhile closer.
Allen grabbed a couple easy saves last week. He sometimes appears for more than one inning, as evidenced by his four out save last night. Multi-inning appearances could open up a spot save or two for Bryan Shaw.
Week after week, I've said one thing about Fernando Rodney – watch out for walks. He didn't forewarn us in any way that he would meltdown and walk four on Saturday. With so little time left in the season, you may just want to preemptively grab Danny Farquhar. The Mariners have no margin of error with their late game leads, so they won't be patient if Rodney blows another.
Tier 4: The Mid-Tier (4)
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Since returning from a minor neck injury, Perkins has allowed six runs in 2.1 innings. Each outing has included a home run. In the process he picked up a save, two blown saves, a loss, and a vulture win. Jared Burton is the next guy in the pen if Perkins is shelved. Neither pitcher makes for a useful asset over the remainder of the season, although Perkins could recover his previous form (hence his ranking here).
It was a confusing week for the Rays bullpen. Manager Joe Madden likes the committee approach, so it's not a surprise when McGee doesn't get a save opportunity. Even so, McGee blew two saves on home runs and picked up a hold in his other appearance. Brad Boxberger also allowed two home runs, and Grant Balfour was the only Ray to earn a save. McGee still looks like the guy to own.
Storen has stolen the closer job in Washington without a second thought. He's picked up saves in each of the last three games, so either Tyler Clippard or Rafael Soriano should be on call tonight.
Tier 5: Questions (5)
Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Edward Mujica, Boston Red Sox
It wasn't a great week for Reed. He allowed three runs over three innings. He worked hard to get through those innings with a total of 18 batters faced and eight hits allowed. Arizona isn't going to mix up the pecking order, especially with Brad Ziegler out for the year. Surprisingly, Oliver Perez may be the setup man now.
The Cardinals are trying to control Rosenthal's workload. After he pitched on Friday, Pat Neshek got the save opportunity on Saturday and converted it. Rosenthal blew yesterday's save with the help of a couple walks. The lesson here is to handcuff Neshek. He could earn a couple more saves.
Casilla allowed a home run last week in a non-save situation. He also converted his 16th save. It sure looks like the job is his and his alone. Sergio Romo isn't banging down the door or anything.
It's hard to look past Rodriguez's problem with home runs, but he tried his best to redeem himself over the last week. He picked up three saves and a win for a Brewers club in desperate need of every victory. The Crew is still four games back in the NL Central and 1.5 behind the Pirates for the second Wild Card. They'll need their closer to remain on point to edge into the postseason.
The big news with Mujica is the return of Koji Uehara. He's appeared twice and recorded four strikeouts in two innings of work. His splitter still isn't in tip top form, which is what caused the demotion in the first place. I think the Sox will keep the pressure off Uehara for the rest of the season, but you never know.
Tier 6: Roller Coasters (8)
Kevin Quackenbush, Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres
Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
Chad Qualls, Houston Astros
LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Jake Petricka, Chicago White Sox
Quackenbush has been shaky as the Padres interim closer. Benoit is expected to return on Friday, so the window is closing for Quackenbush. He may retain the job through the weekend, but expect Benoit to take over soon if healthy.
Every time I consider Mejia, I say to myself “the Mets must be ready to shut him down.” So far, no dice. Mejia had a solid week with two saves in three appearances. I don't really understand why the club is tempting fate and an injury cascade, but it doesn't look like they're going to back down.
Qualls picked up a save in his only appearance since his most recent blown save fiasco against the A's. Janssen also tossed one frame for an easy save. Meanwhile, Hawkins coughed up two runs for the second time in a row. He had over a week between outings.
It was a good week for Neftali Feliz, who pitched three innings and retired all nine batters faced. I wouldn't get overly excited with such a low strikeout rate, but his job is safe if nothing else. I expect the Rangers to sign a closer over the offseason.
Nathan started the week strong with a save, then he picked up another save while allowing one run. Then he took a blown save loss while allowing two runs. Soria picked up the save on Monday, but only because Nathan had worked two days in a row. I would install Soria as the closer were I the Tigers, but they're strangely committed to Nathan.
Petricka has a good chance to finish the season with a sub-3.00 ERA. I'd be happy to bet he has an ERA over 4.00 next season or throws fewer than 30 big league innings. He's just not very good. He blew the save on Monday in a week that also included a normal save and a win.
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Injured
Jesse Crain (calf, biceps), Houston Astros
Bobby Parnell (elbow), New York Mets
Jim Henderson (shoulder), Milwaukee Brewers
Joaquin Benoit (shoulder inflammation), San Diego Padres
Our injury list halved in size since last week with Benoit also preparing to return. It looks like Friday is the target date.
The Deposed
Jim Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
Jose Veras, Chicago Cubs
Josh Fields, Houston Astros
John Axford, Cleveland Indians
Jim Johnson, Oakland Athletics
Jason Grilli, Anaheim Angels
Ernesto Frieri, Pittsburgh Pirates
Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants
Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays
Ronald Belisario, Chicago White Sox
Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels
Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers
Zach Putnam, Chicago White Sox
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillis
If this were the middle of the season, I wouldn't bother listing Papelbon here. Since he'll miss over half of the remaining schedule, I think it fits. Long live Ken Giles.
*****************************
The Steals Department
For a last minute save in the stolen base category, you'll need a combination of availability on the waiver wire, frequent steal attempts, and plenty of playing time. Those elements don't often combine. When they do, it's in the form of a one or two category player. That said, here goes...
Jordan Schafer, Ender Inciarte, and Jose Ramirez are probably the upper class of stolen base options. They all bat first or second for their respective clubs. While none of them exhibits power, their position in the lineup could let them get lucky with some batting average help or runs scored in addition to a few swipes. Ramirez has eligibility as a second baseman and shortstop, which is a nice bonus. He could also drive in Michael Bourn on occasion.
Gerardo Parra is a little more well-rounded and he plays in a hitter's park. The Brewers start him against all right-handed pitchers, and he's capable of contributing across all categories in a 10 day burst.
The Phillies are now using Domonic Brown in a platoon role. And it's kind of working. Unlike the others listed here, he can swat some home runs (he actually has impressive raw power, but it rarely shows in-game). He could add some RBI too.
