Keselowski says Charlotte chaos means some could 'lay up' if they want at Kansas

Are we going to see two different races within the remainder of the second round of the Chase?

After five drivers finished 30th or worse at Charlotte, seventh-place Martin Truex Jr. — who finished 13th on Sunday — has a 19-point lead on ninth place in the points standings. Meanwhile, eighth-place Denny Hamlin is just up by three points over Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon.

“If you’re a car that has any kind of gap right now, you’re going to just go and lay up at Kansas,” Keselowski said Tuesday at a media appearance in Charlotte via USA Today. “You’re going to try really hard to not put yourself in any situations. … The reality is if you have a pretty good gap, you’re going to take a log off the fire.”

Eight drivers move on to the third round, meaning the top seven drivers can play it conservatively over the past two weeks as the five drivers at the bottom of the standings scramble to be the driver who advances to the final eight.

Keselowski added on Twitter Tuesday night that he and his team weren’t planning to race conservatively at Kansas and Talladega. And given his success at Talladega, it’s easy to see why Keselowski wouldn’t want to ‘lay up’ there. His four wins at the plate track are the most at any track in the Cup Series and he’s finished first, 22nd, fourth and first in his past four races there.

The separation after Charlotte is similar to what happened in the first race of the second round in the 2014 Chase. Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson all finished 36th or worse and Kasey Kahne was 22nd. The eight other Chase drivers finished 14th or better.

Keselowski advanced to the third round with a win at Talladega but Kahne, Junior and Johnson missed the next round along with Kyle Busch, who crashed at Talladega. Jeff Gordon, who finished 14th at Kansas and second at Charlotte, advanced despite finishing 26th at Talladega. Carl Edwards moved on after finishing fifth, eighth and 21st.

Edwards’ worst finish of the round came at Talladega too, which is why it’s imperative to minimize any possible damage at Kansas. Got a vibration? Pit and fix it. Same with a flat tire or any other potential problem. With NASCAR’s point-per-position scoring system, 25th is 12 points better than a 37th-place finish that could wipe out any of the gains the top seven drivers in the standings made at Charlotte.

We’ll also note Truex’s gap on 19th is not an insurmountable lead even if he can maintain it through Kansas, however. Keselowski had to win to advance in 2014 while Kyle Busch advanced (and ultimately won the Chase) in 2015 after entering 18 points behind Denny Hamlin, who missed the third round because of a roof hatch issue and subsequent crash.

So even if being conservative is the smart play, it’s no guarantee. Talladega can make the best-laid plans to go waste.

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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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