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Juggernaut Index, No. 8: The Cincinnati Bengals

If Andy Dalton remains at the level he reached in 2015, the Bengals will be a source of fantasy goodness. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
If Andy Dalton remains at the level he reached in 2015, the Bengals will be a source of fantasy goodness. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking and review of NFL teams for fantasy purposes — repeat: FANTASY PURPOSES. Here we concern ourselves with a franchise’s likely contributions to the fantasy player pool. We are not concerned with projected wins and losses. Instead, we’re focused on yards and points. As always, we’re beginning with the league’s least useful teams, working our way toward the elite fantasy juggernauts.

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Just in case you’d forgotten, a serious Andy-Dalton-for-MVP movement existed last year. It was a real thing — and not necessarily an illogical thing. He was great.

After Cincinnati’s twelfth game last season, Dalton had a passer rating of 107.4. He was averaging 8.4 yards per attempt while completing 66.1 percent of his throws. The Bengals were a 10-2 team, challenging for home field advantage in the AFC. Dalton was on pace to finish with 4255 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, numbers that would have been career bests across the board.

And then this happened, Dalton fractured his thumb and the MVP talk obviously ended. Cincinnati’s season would end with an appalling/improbable/hellish loss to the Steelers in the wild card round.

Here we are almost nine months later, and fantasy owners seem to be treating Dalton as if his excellent 2015 season was a complete mirage. As of this writing, he’s the No. 17 quarterback selected in a typical draft, going well outside the top-100 picks. That price, to me, seems crazy. Last year, the man finished as the No. 18 scorer at his position despite playing only three-quarters of the season. Dalton was consistently effective in 2015, to the point that it’s tough not to consider the gains to be real.

Andy Dalton, viable QB1 available at a deep discount. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Andy Dalton, viable QB1 available at a deep discount. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

If you’re worried about the departure of Hue Jackson, you should note that Cincy’s longtime quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese was promoted to OC. Zampese had backup QB A.J. McCarron ready to roll last season, following Dalton’s injury. If instead you’re fretting about the departure of two quality receivers … well, OK, that’s fair. Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu weren’t exactly Stallworth and Swann (or Pickens and Scott), but I hear you. We’re talking about a pair of receivers who accounted for 153 targets last season. Brandon LaFell and his crab-claw hands will likely start in two-wide sets, delivering his usual WR4 fantasy numbers. He’s certainly not an upgrade, but he’s not a severe downgrade, either. Rookie Tyler Boyd should serve as this team’s primary slot receiver, and he’s plenty interesting as an end-of-draft fantasy flier. Boyd isn’t a burner, but he has good size (6-foot-2), reliable hands and advanced technique. He was never not open at Pitt. Sixth-round rookie Cody Core has been a low-buzz player during the offseason — here’s a highlight — but he’s really only a name for the deep dynasty crowd.

A.J. Green is still in the team picture, of course, and his presence is a nice safety net for Dalton. Green is a no-doubt first-round fantasy asset, a receiver who’s never finished with less than 1000 yards in any of his five pro seasons. Green has reached double-digit touchdowns in three of the past four years, and, considering the turnover in Cincy’s receiving corps, he seems likely to draw 150-plus targets in 2016. He appeared to tweak a knee in preseason action on Sunday, but it sounds like we (and he) have dodged a bullet. Draft early and enjoy.

Tyler Eifert is still recovering from ankle surgery after suffering an injury in the Pro Bowl, a game that really should not exist. We may not see Eifert for a few weeks…

…so, if you’re drafting him, you’ll need to find an early-season placeholder. (Maybe Vance McDonald, maybe Virgil Green. Don’t look for options in Cincy.) Even if Eifert were completely healthy, he’d be a terrible bet to repeat last year’s touchdown total; 13 spikes on only 72 targets is insane. Let’s just hope he can find his way back and give us a dozen games. Health will always be a concern with Eifert, but he’s obviously a trusted red-zone weapon tied to a quality offense.

Cincinnati’s ground game was a colossal disappointment in 2015, after the team ranked sixth in rushing (and second in rushing TDs) the year prior. Jeremy Hill followed an outstanding rookie season with a miserable sophomore effort, averaging only 3.6 yards per tote. You might recall that his late fumble set the stage for additional disasters in the Bengals’ brutal playoff loss. Hill has become a popular bounce-back candidate in 2016, although he’s gained just 3.8 YPC in the preseason. He remains the preferred rushing option at the goal-line for Cincinnati, a role that partially saved his fantasy value last year (12 TDs). He’s barely a rumor in passing situations, so he gets less interesting in PPR. At Hill’s recent ADP (37.5), I’m out. I’d prefer Melvin Gordon two rounds later (55.7). Or Chris Ivory at his current price (65.2), or Isaiah Crowell at his (90.4). Of course I was also roasted by Hill last season, so it’s tough to go back.

Last year, goal-line work saved Jeremy Hill's otherwise miserable fantasy season. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images)
Last year, goal-line work saved Jeremy Hill’s otherwise miserable fantasy season. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images)

Giovani Bernard remains in the backfield mix for Cincinnati, and he out-rushed Hill last season by over a full yard per carry (3.6 to 4.7). Bernard set new career highs last season in both YPC and yards per reception (9.6), gaining 1202 scrimmage yards on 203 touches (49 REC). He’s a more dynamic and versatile back than Hill, but the team isn’t looking to feed him more than 210-225 touches. Hill dominated the inside-the-10 work last season, carrying 24 times to Bernard’s 13. If you’re playing in a full-point PPR league, Gio is the Bengals back to target. Elsewhere it’s Hill, despite his messy 2015. These guys run behind a quality O-line in a high-yield offense, so don’t sweat the ongoing committee arrangement.

The Bengals D is very good up front, where Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap wreak devastation and mayhem. Cincy ranked as the league’s No. 2 scoring defense last season (17.4 PPG) and finished third in interceptions (21), but a lack of defensive TDs (1) prevented this group from making a significant fantasy contribution. Defensive fantasy scoring can be a little rough, too reliant on quirky plays. In any case, this defense is entirely ownable in our game, a top-12 unit on most cheat sheets.

2015 Offensive Stats & Ranks
Points per game – 26.2 (7)
Pass YPG – 245.2 (15)
Rush YPG – 112.8 (13)
Yards per play – 5.6 (9)
Plays per game – 63.1 (25)

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Cleveland, 31) San Francisco, 30) Philadelphia, 29) Baltimore, 28) Tennessee, 27) Los Angeles, 26) Miami, 25) Detroit, 24) Chicago, 23) San Diego, 22) Minnesota, 21) Tampa Bay, 20) Atlanta, 19) Washington, 18) Buffalo, 17) Kansas City, 16) Oakland, 15) NY Giants, 14) Indianapolis, 13) Jacksonville, 12) Houston, 11) Denver, 10) NY Jets, 9) Dallas, 8) Cincinnati