Jabari Parker's Season is Over

Long-time readers know that when Kings news starts to heat up that I get sucked into reporter mode, and with Mike Malone’s firing the phone has been ringing quite a bit. I’ll save all that for Pro Basketball Talk and my Twitter feed, but along with that situation the trade winds have started to pick up and I wouldn’t be surprised if some blockbusters come through the pipeline.

As for last night, other than the circus in Sacramento, there was terrible news on Jabari Parker’s season-ending ACL injury, more Russell Westbrook insanity, a long overdue loss for the Warriors, continued dysfunction in New York, and Rudy Gobert continued to make the believers look good. So let’s get right to it.

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THE BIG NUMBERS

BUSTED

INJURIES

Jabari Parker’s knee was obviously jacked up if you saw the replay and the announcement that he has a torn ACL wasn’t a surprise. We wish him the best in his rehabilitation and now we turn to the business of figuring out what happens next in Milwaukee.

First things first, a lot will come down to how much the Bucks want to play Giannis Antetokounmpo at power forward, where he’ll get beat up and put into foul trouble at a faster rate. He posted a dud of six points on 2-of-7 shooting and eight boards on Monday with no other stats, highlighting the problems he has in fantasy leagues has been discussed here a whole lot, but he’s still worth owning in all formats because he’ll be needed to mop up a lot of minutes and touches.

From there I think we need to look at Ersan Ilyasova’s return in a week or so for long-term value, with the main barometer of his success being whether or not he can actually earn and keep a significant role. He has been a top 150-185 value (9/8 cat) this season in just 18.6 mpg and he has actually hit 50 percent of his shots on the year.

It’s no secret that he has fallen out of favor with the Bucks in general as a pet pickup of former owner Herb Kohl, but he’s the only true power forward option among the likely beneficiaries and he carries the best upside. I’d call him a must-own player for that mid-round upside alone, but if your roster is stacked you will want to weigh your options because a late-round return is much more likely. So if your reserves have a better path to their mid-round upside or you’re considering dropping a solid late-round producer you may want to think twice about the add. The distinction between must-add and must-own is important here.

From there owners should look at Zaza Pachulia (13 points, three boards, five assists, two steals, 29 minutes) and Khris Middleton (14 points, two threes, three assists, one steal, 29 minutes). Pachulia playing more center minutes moves foul-prone and now very inconsistent Larry Sanders to power forward, which is a workable fit in stretches, but neither of the big men are truly capable of handling big minutes.

Middleton has played as a small-ball four at times this year and the combo of Middleton and Pachulia will probably be used to sop up Parker’s 27 mpg in the short-term. We also saw Jared Dudley (10 points, five assists, three treys) play 31 minutes on Monday, but moving him into heavy rotation would stick Antetokounmpo in the power forward slot a whole lot. Chances are Kidd does a little of everything, and I have this crew ranked Middleton, Pachulia, and then Dudley, with Dudley being somebody to look at in 14-16 team leagues and the former two being worth a look in 12-14 teams, respectively.

Dwyane Wade tweaked his knee, stayed in the game and finished with 28 points, five boards, four assists, one steal and one 3-pointer in 36 minutes. You all know the drill here so keep your eyes peeled for updates in the next 24 hours.

Tony Allen left Tuesday’s game with a corneal abrasion and is questionable to play tonight. It feels like Courtney Lee (five points, seven boards, two assists) has been struggling but plainly put he hasn’t been. He’s a mid-round play in his last four games and a top 50-70 play on the year. He’ll have his minutes guaranteed and Vince Carter (16 points, four threes) could get another chance to show he’s simply starting his season in mid-December.

Derrick Favors (ankle) was ruled out of last night’s game after participating in shootaround, so it doesn’t sound like his absence will be a big one. Rudy Gobert (six points, nine boards, two assists, three blocks, 33 minutes) led the team in plus-minus and while Enes Kanter went for 29 and seven with two steals and a block, he had the team’s worst plus-minus. That sound you can hear is the Utah fans begging for Gobert to stay on the floor more when Favors returns. In any event, regular readers know that I have advised a tight-hold on Gobert for his serviceable floor in a low-minute role and his easy mid-round upside in a relatively low workload of 26+ mpg.

Robin Lopez updated his timetable to be 6-7 weeks due to a broken hand and not the month that had been previously reported. Chris Kaman was a must-add player before the new news and the rest of the crew is still too wishy-washy to get behind any one of them. But, if one of them starts to get an inside track, there’s a bigger window of opportunity to work with.

Kenneth Faried (ankle) will return to action tonight and try not to give his owners more heartburn, as everybody looks at game logs of last year to make themselves feel better about the choice they made on draft day. All semi-kidding aside, Denver can’t kill Kenny. He always comes back.

Kawhi Leonard’s hand injury doesn’t seem great and the only silver lining here is how well he has played. If it was bothering him more than that, perhaps he doesn’t put up the numbers he has been recently. X-rays revealed no fracture, so that’s good, but an MRI is probably upcoming and the Spurs are going to play it safe. He and Tony Parker (hamstring) are both out tonight. If you’re looking for dice-rolls you’re looking at Cory Joseph, Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli.

Dwight Howard’s knee is acting up again and he’s listed as questionable for tonight. His absence has put a few extra touches in the hands of Donatas Motiejunas and Patrick Beverley. Motie has barely been worth owning despite his solid play and big popcorn numbers lately, and Beverley has been great so plan accordingly.

For more injury news check out our injury page.

WELCOME BACK

Anthony Davis wore a flak jacket for his chest injury but played and posted 31 points with nine boards, one steal and three blocks in 35 minutes. I wrote about how he didn’t look right last week and he looked pretty good last night, so owners can take their concerns down from Defcon-1 to Defcon-0 if there is such a thing. All he has now is the normal level of concern one should have for the oft-injured wunderkind.

Mirza Teletovic (hip) returned to action and scored just five points with one assist and one three in 11 minutes. Often undervalued anyway, as long as he can get back up to full speed he’s still playing in a banged up frontcourt that’s heading toward Tanksville. With top-150 value in just 24 mpg owners it’s not hard to see the mid-round upside if he can creep north of 30 mpg, and one look at the roster shows it’s not that far-fetched. Unless I’m in a shallow 10-team league I don’t see how I don’t make a play at that.

PICKUPS

Remember Mason Plumlee? The guy that was supposedly going to knock DeMarcus Cousins off of Team USA? Well he’s back and he had another big night with 21 points, nine boards, one steal and one block in 32 minutes and he’s averaging 14.5 points and 10 boards over his last four games.

Brook Lopez (back) is going to be re-evaluated on Saturday and he could easily be being held out due to trade talks, and the bottom line is that his value proposition is the same as it was at the beginning of the year. Assuming he could play well, his teammates in Lopez and Kevin Garnett are Grade A injury risks and he doesn’t need many minutes to be a factor in fantasy leagues.

The only caveat here is that his foul shooting has been abysmal at 42.1 percent on 4.8 attempts per game in his last four contests, cancelling out any value he has had in most standard leagues over that span. He’s not going to be that bad from the stripe all year and if he can play 25-plus minutes he’ll be worth owning. Prior to his faceplant he held a nice mid-round upside if the guys ahead of him got hurt. There’s no way you can pass that up unless you’re well-situated down low (#TWSS). Unlike a streaky shooter like Ersan Ilyasova he shouldn’t disappear from night-to-night since his role is to rebound and play defense, even though that’s exactly what he has done this season.

Marreese Speights hit 7-of-14 shots last night for 18 and eight with two blocks in 26 minutes, and that comes with news that Andrew Bogut has runner’s knee. Chris Rock was pitching my #BubbleWrapPlan on TV last night and that all points to the Warriors being big Daily Dose fans, where we say bench Bogut until February and let him gear up for the playoffs then. Heck, the Dubs probably get to miss the Thunder that way.

All kidding aside, this add recommendation is for 12-14 team league owners that may have been holding off on Speights thinking Bogut’s return was imminent. He could very well return soon and play a bunch of games, but I think the Warriors will rely on Speights enough to keep his value at a low-end in those formats.

Regular readers know that I’ve been about as cold as one can be on Tim Hardaway Jr. due to his various deficiencies, but once Iman Shumpert got hurt I found myself bidding $100 of $1,000 FAAB dollars to get him in a 12-team, 16-player big money league. The bottom line is that Shumpert is officially injury-prone and off my hold list despite the golden opportunity presented by Carmelo Anthony’s shutdown risk. J.R. Smith could be hurt and/or he could also be in the doghouse, and it’s even more likely that he’s not in the team’s future plans.

Hardaway, despite griping with Anthony, has more potential for the franchise and he’s healthy, so he could be a guy playing heavy minutes in the second half of the year. Knowing that alone owners can feel pretty good about late-round value when you iron out all of the streaky peaks and valleys he’s going to bring. As a bonus he could end up being better in the peripheral categories as his usage increases, his teammates get worse due to attrition, and games plunge further into Sixers-style garbage affairs.

THE MIDDLE

Reggie Jackson has been underwhelming since Russell Westbrook has returned and all of it makes sense. Westy wants to lay the funk down and the Thunder are pushing to get back into the playoffs, not to mention show Jackson who the lead dogs are. Jackson doesn’t have a lot of leverage here so he’s going to try to keep his nose clean with the field goal attempts the best he can. There’s a lot of season to go and with Westbrook dunking like the rim killed his family, I probably won’t drop him at all in the million places I own the pair. But based on pure standalone value, Jackson has enough upside if one of the Thunder’s Big Three goes down to hold and he should level out into at least a late-round value, too.

With news that Ricky Rubio is running more and his timetable could be accelerated, I’m less inclined to have anybody go heavy on Mo Williams (14 minutes), who is basically a mess. He could get back up to 25-30 minutes and start putting up some big games, but he’s not a must-own player until he proves himself.

Shabazz Muhammad kept his foot on the gas with 21 points, 9-of-17 FGs, one three, four boards and three steals last night, and the steals were a nice, new wrinkle that owners shouldn’t get comfortable with. Looking to his two-week split he has logged 24.3 mpg and posted top 115-150 value (9/8 cat) leagues based on 17.0 points per game and that’s just about it. If owners want to assume he can hang onto that type of playing time his next trick will be to score at the same rate when Kevin Martin returns and Mo Williams starts playing more. Ricky Rubio’s return would be a good thing. Corey Brewer could get traded and help him out, too, so there’s some chance he can hold long-term value and I’d call him a low-end add in 12-team leagues, but not a must-own player.

Let’s get something straight on this next guy right off the bat – Rasual Butler is a different player than the one that looked like he was on his way out of the league last season. He’s in shape, he’s quicker, and he’s in the midst of a blistering start – hitting 54.2 percent of his field goals and 53.4 percent of his 3-point shots. He’s a top 80-115 value in 21.6 mpg this season and getting rave reviews in Washington. He had a big game last night with 23 points, five boards, one steal, one block and four threes in 28 minutes with Paul Pierce (toe) out.

Unless something happens to Pierce long-term, though, I’m simply betting heavy that Butler can’t keep it up. In fact, when his shooting percentages finally do hit something representative of Planet Earth, he’ll have probably shot something like 30 percent over the course of four weeks. Give him a solid round of applause for a job well-done, but if you did a quick glance at those early returns and got excited be sure to look again.

DROPS

Zach LaVine hit 3-of-9 shots with one three to finish with eight points, three boards and eight assists in another start. Mo Williams is back in a very low-minute role for now, and Ricky Rubio’s timetable could potentially be accelerated. The window is basically closed for LaVine and it never really opened up for owners in the first place.