High Fives: Lining up the outfield
In conjunction with our Outfield position primer, Brandon Funston, Dalton Del Don and Scott Pianowski offer their top-5 takes on various topics concerning the fantasy outfield positions, including the outfielders that are most overvalued and undervalued for '15 drafts, as well as a nod to both the future and the past. Let's get to it ...
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Top 5 outfield draft values, based on Yahoo ADP | ||
1. Avisail Garcia - His power/speed game is primed for a breakout - 242.6 ADP a filthy bargain | 1. A.J. Pollock - Had a .302-41-7-24-14 line over 75 games last season. Plays in terrific hitter's park | 1. Michael Brantley - Five categories outside Top 25 ADP, yes please |
2. Melky Cabrera - Good lineup, good park, track record of outperforming current ADP | 2. Marcel Ozuna - Have him as a top-25 OF, but he's not being drafted close to that | 2. Charlie Blackmon - The Regression Police went too far; at 77 ADP, I'm buying |
3. Mookie Betts - Fantasy-friendly skills and environment | 3. Joc Pederson - Legit ROY candidate | 3. Yelich/Ozuna - Emerging talents, screened by The Stanton Show |
4. A.J. Pollock - Round 20 ADP crazy cheap for a guy that has legit .280/15/25 upside | 4. Steve Pearce - I'm apparently more of a believer in last year's breakout than most | 4. Melky Cabrera - A mere duplication of 2014 makes him mad bargain |
5. Ben Revere - Explain to me why you'd take Hamilton when Revere can be had 100 picks later | 5. Drew Stubbs - No current starting role but had 15 homers/20 steals in 388 ABs last year | 5. J.D. Martinez - Low-walk, solid-average players often misunderstood. Hits ball hard consistently |
Bottom 5 outfield draft values, based on Yahoo ADP | ||
1. Billy Hamilton - Not paying top 50 price for a one-cat player who hit .200 post AS break | 1. Justin Upton - Not a big fan of spending a third round pick on a RHB who plays in PETCO Park | 1. Yoenis Cespedes - More name than game; .263 hitter, steals not bettable |
2. Michael Brantley - His top 30 tag assumes that 20/20 is his new normal - I'm not so sure | 2. Nelson Cruz - Coming off a career-year at age 34 and moving to a worse hitter's park | 2. Hunter Pence - Why go out of way to meet an injury issue? |
3. Justin Upton - Paying for a name brand - Doesn't run much, and Petco going to hurt his bat | 3. Alex Rios - Had 4 HRs in nearly 500 ABs last year in Texas | 3. Matt Kemp - Arthritic hips, worst of all ballparks |
4. Brett Gardner - Unlikely to sustain his HR/FB rate from '14 - no longer a big SB booster | 4. Josh Hamilton - He's borderline undraftable | 4. Matt Holliday - Rather be a year early than a year late |
5. Austin Jackson - For fantasy purposes, he's a one-cat player (Runs) and even that's a maybe | 5. Rusney Castillo - Like his potential but real chance he opens year in minors | 5. Alex Rios - Pop a concern, steals tough to trust into age-34 season |
Top 5 combined HR+SB bets for '15 among the OF-eligible crowd | ||
1. Billy Hamilton - I'll call it 7 HRs and 55 SBs | 1. Mike Trout - He's running less, but has averaged 63.7 HR+SB over his first 3 seasons | 1. Carlos Gomez - Three years in a row, can’t be denied. Defense also dreamy |
2. Mike Trout - I'll call it 35 HRs and 25 SBs | 2. Billy Hamilton - His O/U for SBs alone is probably around 59.5 | 2. Mike Trout - How much does he feel like running? |
3. Carlos Gomez - I'll call it 22 HRs and 32 SBs | 3. Carlos Gomez - Has averaged 59 HR+SB over past 3 seasons | 3. Andrew McCutchen - Does everything well, including stay healthy |
4. George Springer - I'll call it 29 HRs and 19 SBs | 4. George Springer - ZiPS projects 26 HRs and 17 SBs in just 113 games | 4. Jacoby Ellsbury - Case of Two Jakes - didn’t hit on road last year |
5. Andrew McCutchen - I'll call it 26 HRs and 19 SBs | 5. Andrew McCutchen - Tempted to go Giancarlo Stanton but 'Cutch seems safer. | 5. George Springer - Look for more confidence on bases this time around |
Top 5 projected fantasy rookie outfielders for '15 | ||
1. Jorge Soler - Great athlete with huge power and an idea of what he's doing at the plate | 1. Jorge Soler - He's the real deal and will be hitting in the middle of a suddenly potent looking Cubs lineup | 1. Jorge Soler - Loaded organization, could raise a flag before decade ends |
2. Rusney Castillo - BOS outfield is crowded but a Victorino trade/injury is bettable | 2. Joc Pederson - BA risk but ZiPS projects a 20/20 season in fewer than 140 games | 2. Joc Pederson - Don’t mess with him, Mattingly |
3. Joc Pederson - .303/33/30 line in 121 minor league games damn impressive, even in PCL | 3. Yasmany Tomas - Will help playing in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball | 3. Steven Souza - Traded into a job, 15-15 or 20-20 isn’t a stretch |
4. Yasmany Tomas - Becoming easier and easier to bank on power-packed Cuban imports | 4. Rusney Castillo - Not a fan of his ADP, but Castillo has major upside if things break right | 4. Dalton Pompey - Toolsy switch-hitter was a fast riser in 2014 |
5. Steven Souza - Will get chance in TB to see if his 20/20 skills translate to MLB | 5. Dalton Pompey - Could reach 30+ steals this year. Great first name | 5. Michael Taylor - First call when injury strikes; needs to work on contact rate |
Top 5 least favorite MLB outfielders of all-time | ||
1. Barry Bonds - Forget PEDs, he had a severely narcissistic personality that only a myopic Giants fan could pardon | 1. Ty Cobb - Was a bit before my time but seemingly an awful human being | 1. J.D. Drew - Marsellus Wallace stole his soul, stashed it in a briefcase |
2. Barry Bonds - My cup of haterade for Bonds runneth over - he needs two spots on my list | 2. Yasiel Puig - He nearly fought MadBum! I'm sure I'd love him if he were on my team though | 2. Jim Edmonds - A master of making catches look much harder than they really were |
3. Paul O'Neill - King of the pouty face | 3. Elijah Dukes - Kept buying in and spending big on him. Despicable dude | 3. Carl Crawford - Signs huge contract, then tells you everything he doesn’t want to do |
4. Jose Canseco - What a meathead | 4. Nyjer Morgan - Tony Plush! OK, he's kind of awesome, but there was this | 4. Milton Bradley - Go back to your own planet |
5. Jonny Gomes - Definition of hell is being forced to watch a video of his tick-laden pre-pitch preparation over and over | 5. Not Barry Bonds - If anyone picks Bonds in this category, they are dead to me | 5. Gregg Jefferies - None of his teammates liked him, either |