Forde's Fab Four: Who's on the move among college football's top contenders
Each week of the season, I will be a one-man College Football Playoff selection committee, picking the four teams that should be in the bracket if Selection Sunday were today. Call it Forde’s Fab Four, and call it an invitation to debate and discuss.
After Week 4 of the season, there were both more teams to consider for the Fab Four and fewer to be sure about. It has become harder to tell what should be considered a quality victory, as brand-name teams continue to lose. Notre Dame and USC have three losses each; LSU and Oklahoma have two. (If Duke can beat you at home, you’re not good.) On the flip side: Maybe beating Colorado (which Michigan has done) and Arkansas (which Texas A&M just did) are major victories.
Clarity will come in time: Alabama, Texas A&M and Tennessee all play each other. So do Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin. Louisville plays both Clemson and Houston. Stanford is the contender staring at some potential strength-of-schedule issues, with Washington its only remaining ranked opponent. For now, this week’s bracket is presented without much conviction:
PEACH BOWL: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
The Crimson Tide punched the clock by punching Kent State in the mouth, 48-0. There was nothing to learn from that game but perhaps something to lose, with two Alabama running backs being injured (including leading rusher Damien Harris). The Tide’s overall résumé may have taken a hit with another USC loss, but the comeback victory over Mississippi was buttressed by the Rebels’ destruction of Georgia. So it’s basically status quo for the defending national champions, who have given up 43 points to Ole Miss and 16 points to their other three opponents. Next for Alabama: home against Kentucky on Saturday, in what should be a woodshed game.
The new team in the mix is A&M, which picked up an impressive neutral-site victory over Arkansas on Saturday and saw its road win at Auburn add a little shine when the Tigers defeated LSU. UCLA’s loss in the final seconds to Stanford doesn’t hurt, either. That gives the newly physical Aggies three pretty good wins in four games, which is enough to squeak past a growing crowd of other contenders. While this matchup exists right now only in theory, A&M will host Alabama on Oct. 22. Tough to drop the Cougars from the bracket, but they still have a couple of opportunities to impress: at unbeaten Navy Oct. 8, and home against Fab Four inhabitant Louisville on Nov. 17. Next for Texas A&M: At offensively futile South Carolina on Saturday.
FIESTA BOWL: No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 3 Ohio State
The Cardinals avoided a clear and present trap Saturday at Marshall, an off-the-beaten-path road trip sandwiched between huge Atlantic Coast Conference games against Florida State and Clemson. Lamar Jackson was absurdly productive yet again, compiling seven total touchdowns and 479 yards total offense, and Todd Grantham’s defense allowed just 207 yards total offense. Three fourth-quarter Marshall touchdowns made it look closer than it was, but Louisville benefited from playing a far-from-vintage Thundering Herd team that was without its injured starting quarterback. The Cardinals were nowhere near as sharp as the previous week against Florida State, but they didn’t have to be and knew it. Next for Louisville: mammoth showdown at Clemson on Saturday.
The Buckeyes had the weekend off to get past their 21-point win at Oklahoma and start preparing for what should be a soft entry into Big Ten play: Rutgers and Indiana are the next two opponents, both at home. It remains unclear how good the Sooners are, and thus how good Ohio State’s win was. It seems increasingly clear that opening-week opponent Bowling Green is awful, after the Falcons gave up 77 points for the second time this month (first to Ohio State, now to Memphis). But the 45-point win over Tulsa has gained a little currency with the Golden Hurricane now sitting at 3-1. Next for Ohio State: Rutgers at home Saturday.
Dropped out: Houston.
Also considered: Houston, Wisconsin, Stanford, Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee.
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