Forde's Fab Four: One-loss Oregon sneaks into playoff bracket
Every Sunday, I will play Selection Committee member, take a look at the College Football Playoff picture and offer my bracket. Feel free to agree or disagree, starting with the latest development in Forde’s Fab Four: a new No. 1, and a one-loss team makes an appearance as we reach the midpoint of the 2014 season.
No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Oregon in the Sugar Bowl
The Bulldogs bullied their way into the top spot with a third straight victory over a top-10 opponent, this time then-No. 2 Auburn. Mississippi State threw haymakers at the shaken Tigers right away, jumping to a 21-0 lead after nine minutes and then basically holding serve the rest over the remaining 51 minutes. The 38 points State scored on Auburn matched the total points the Tigers had allowed in their previous three games. Stat: The Bulldogs aren’t just winning against ranked teams, they’re dominating. In victories over LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn, they trailed for a total of 2 minutes, 49 seconds. They led by double digits for nearly 125 minutes. Next: bye week, followed by trip to surprising Kentucky (5-1) for what is shaping up to be one of the most unlikely pivotal games in recent league history.
Oregon returns to the Fab Four after beating UCLA in Pasadena. The Ducks are the first team with a loss to crack the top four, thanks to owning a pair of double-digit wins that stack up well against the competition: by 19 over Michigan State and by 12 on the road over the Bruins. If undefeated Baylor had played Oregon’s schedule so far, their record would be no better and perhaps worse. The Bears finally got a quality win Saturday over TCU, but they had to come from 21 down in the fourth quarter and benefited from a controversial pass interference call at a key moment. Advantage – albeit a slight one – to Oregon. Stat: Quarterback Marcus Mariota has not thrown an interception in 155 attempts this season, and his no-pick streak extends back to through last season’s bowl game as well. Next: hosts Washington.
No. 2 Mississippi vs. No. 3 Florida State in the Rose Bowl
Mississippi showed its mettle by following a field-storming, cathartic victory over Alabama with a no-doubt-about-it road win over Texas A&M. That’s a powerful two-week statement. The Rebels' defense, which is among the nation’s best, throttled A&M’s running attack and held the Aggies scoreless for the first 2½ quarters. Ole Miss was a plus-three turnover margin Saturday, and returned two of those turnovers for touchdowns. Their 12 interceptions rank second nationally to only Louisville’s 14, and their 4.31 yards per play allowed is fifth nationally. Stat: The Rebels have won their two SEC road games by a combined 53 points, held both opponents scoreless in the first half and never trailed in either game. Next: hosts Tennessee.
With the latest negative Jameis Winston headlines coming out the night before the game, Florida State again disregarded any distractions and took care of business, this time beating Syracuse on the road 38-20. It was a solid but unspectacular performance, which continues the theme of the season. Last year the Seminoles won 12 of 14 games by more than 25 points; this year to date they’ve won just one. FSU surrendered more than 400 yards for the third time in four ACC games. The 'Noles may have tapped into some new backfield help, though, getting 122 rushing yards and a touchdown from freshman running back Dalvin Cook. Stat: The Seminoles’ average margin of victory of 18.3 points is smallest in Forde’s Fab Four, and they are the only member of the quartet without a victory over a team in the current Sagarin top 15. Next: hosts fellow unbeaten Notre Dame in the national game of the week.
Dropped out: Auburn.
Also considered: Baylor, Notre Dame, Michigan State, TCU.
