Forde's Fab Four: FSU slipping in bracket after another narrow escape
Every week, I will play Selection Committee member, take a look at the College Football Playoff picture and offer Forde’s Fab Four bracket as if today were Selection Sunday. Feel free to agree or disagree, starting with this question: who has Florida State beaten, really?
No. 1 seed Alabama vs. No. 4 seed Florida State in the Sugar Bowl
The Crimson Tide plodded through its designated late-season walkover game against FCS Western Carolina, 48-14. Many of Alabama’s key players sat out the second half, and running back T.J. Yeldon didn’t play at all. This was simply a game to get through unscathed on the way to a showdown this week, and potentially another one the week after. Plenty of people don’t like the late-season cupcake games SEC teams play, but most other leagues simply schedule those games earlier in the year – and don’t play anything near the conference gauntlet that is the SEC West. Speaking of which: with Arkansas’ shutout of Mississippi, the entire seven-team division is bowl eligible. That’s never happened before. Stat: In 11 fourth quarters this season (165 minutes), Alabama has trailed for a total of 6:05 – the final 2:54 against Mississippi, the first 2:24 against Arkansas and a late 47-second blip against LSU. That's just 3.7 percent of the fourth-quarter time. And the Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa this year. Next: Auburn, which has lost its last two SEC games to drop out of contention for divisional, conference and national titles. But that hardly lessens the stakes for the Tide, which not only has everything still to play for, there is a matter of payback for the unforgettably painful loss last year on The Plains.
What to do with the Seminoles? That’s the question of the week – and of the last six weeks (that includes an FSU bye week), really. I dropped them from No. 3 to No. 4 after wheezing past Boston College at home (my opinion: Jameis Winston deserved a flag for pushing the ref out of the way against the Eagles, but an ejection would have been excessive). Undefeated is great. Lack of domination against a succession of OK opponents is not great. As the season has gone on, virtually all of Florida State’s bigger wins have shrank: Oklahoma State is 5-6; Clemson and Louisville are 8-3; Notre Dame is 7-4. It’s true that all four of those teams were healthier at key positions when playing the Seminoles than they were before or after – the Cowboys and Tigers had their starting quarterbacks, the Cardinals had wideout DeVante Parker and running back Michael Dyer, and the Fighting Irish had most of what is now a decimated defense. But as it stands, Florida State has zero wins against teams in the Sagarin top 20. Against better competition, this habit of falling behind or pulling out close games late would likely result in one or more losses. Stat: The Seminoles haven’t led any opponent by more than two scores since Oct. 11 at Syracuse. Next: Rival Florida closes the Will Muschamp Era in Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday. The Gators are terrible offensively but good enough defensively to make this a sixth straight struggle for the Seminoles.
No. 2 seed Oregon vs. No. 3 seed Mississippi State in the Rose Bowl
The Ducks continue rolling at a high rate of speed, winning their sixth straight Saturday – all of them by double digits, all while scoring at least 42 points. They jumped on hapless Colorado 30-3 in the first half, upped the lead to 44-10 in the third quarter and then used the fourth as mop-up duty. In combination with Oregon’s pileup of strong wins, its lone loss (31-24 to Arizona on Oct. 2) has only gotten better as the season has gone along. The Wildcats now are 9-2 and remain in contention to win the Pac-12 South and have a potential league championship rematch with Oregon. Stat: the Ducks have led by double digits at halftime in every game of their current winning streak, and have surrendered just 26 first-half points in their last three games. Next: at Oregon State in the annual Civil War game. This series has tilted heavily in Oregon’s favor in recent years – it has beaten the Beavers six straight times, four of them by a minimum of 17 points. But last year’s game in Eugene was a 36-35 thriller, in which the Ducks scored the winning touchdown with 29 seconds left. This time around Oregon State needs to win to reach bowl eligibility, but the Beavers have lost five of their last six.
The Bulldogs demolished Vanderbilt 51-0 in a low-stress rout that allowed them to pull several key players after less than three full quarters of play. That included quarterback Dak Prescott, who had his highest pass efficiency rating (200.5) since the season opener, and leading rusher Josh Robinson (just seven carries, all in the first half). Looking ahead, there will be much on the line Saturday. Beating up on Vandy keeps Mississippi State scantly ahead of three other one-loss teams: Baylor, TCU and Ohio State. Baylor kept pace by smoking Oklahoma State, 49-28, and still has the head-to-head victory over TCU that the committee thinks is just window dressing. The Horned Frogs had a bye but benefitted from Minnesota upsetting Nebraska, thus further boosting TCU’s 30-7 victory over the Gophers in September. That Minnesota win also helped Ohio State, which beat the Gophers Nov. 15 but wheezed past Indiana Saturday in a letdown game. Stat: Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just six points in the last 95 minutes of play. Next: at Mississippi in the annual Egg Bowl grudge match. The wounded Rebels were taken out of all title contention Saturday by Arkansas but would love to play spoiler to their arch rivals.
Dropped out: None.
Also considered: TCU, Baylor, Ohio State, UCLA.
