For the Pac-12's three contenders, more is at stake than just a league title
The three-way battle for first place in the Pac-12 could decide something much more important than just a league title.
The conference’s lone spot in the geographically friendly West Regional also could be at stake.
Since the selection committee’s bracketing principles dictate that every league’s top teams get sent to different NCAA tournament regions, only one of Arizona, Oregon and UCLA will be able to stay out West. The team that separates itself among those three will probably be rewarded with a favorable path to the Final Four that would go from either Sacramento or Salt Lake City to San Jose to Phoenix.
For UCLA, that could mean never having to leave the state of California prior to the Final Four, something that worked to the Bruins favor in both 2006 and 2007. Arizona and Oregon would also have a shorter flight and more crowd support playing in the alumni-heavy Bay Area rather than New York, Kansas City or Memphis.
Arizona’s star-crossed history in Elite Eight games in Anaheim is proof that staying out West certainly doesn’t guarantee a Final Four trip, but recent history suggests it’s certainly a better option than being jettisoned to another region.
Since 2006, Pac-12 teams are 10-6 in the West Regional semifinals and finals and 1-11 in other regional semifinals or finals. Oregon provided the lone win back in 2007 when it beat fellow Western power UNLV in the Midwest Regional semifinals in Saint Louis.
It’s difficult to assess whether Arizona, Oregon or UCLA has the best chance to stay out West this season because all three have very similar résumés.
Arizona (23-3, 12-1) leads the Pac-12 by a game and boasts a head-to-head victory at UCLA, but with leading returning scorer Allonzo Trier suspended, the Wildcats didn’t accomplish all that much in non-league play. Their two best wins outside the Pac-12 came against a Michigan State team that will need a strong finish to make the NCAA tournament and a Texas A&M team that has since faded out of contention for a bid.
Oregon (22-4, 11-2) stands just a game behind Arizona and routed the Wildcats in their lone meeting in Eugene, but the Ducks too weren’t especially good in non-league play. With star Dillon Brooks either out with a foot injury or shaking off the rust, Oregon lost at Baylor and fell in the opening round of the Maui Invitational to Georgetown, squandering a chance to pick up some meaningful non-conference victories.
UCLA (23-3, 10-3) owns the marquee non-conference win the other two lack thanks to its road victory at Kentucky, but the Bruins also trail the Ducks and Wildcats in the Pac-12 standings. Just to forge a tie for first in the Pac-12, they’ll not only need to beat Arizona in Tucson on Feb. 25 but also have both the Ducks and Wildcats stumble once more against somebody else.
The remaining schedule favors Oregon, which doesn’t face another top-tier Pac-12 team the rest of the regular season, and Arizona, which hosts UCLA in 10 days. Nonetheless, the résumés of the Pac-12’s three best teams are so similar that there’s a chance the pecking order isn’t determined until next month’s conference tournament.
The Pac-12’s strongest team is most likely to earn a No. 2 seed in the West, one rung behind a Gonzaga team that is poised to finish the regular season unbeaten barring a massive upset. There’s also a chance the Pac-12 champion could also receive the No. 1 seed in the South if Baylor falters down the stretch and no ACC team distances itself from the rest of that league’s upper echelon.
In that scenario, you might see a Pac-12 coach take the unusual stance of campaigning not to be a No. 1 seed.
Whether you’re a No. 1 or No. 2 doesn’t matter all that much in a year when the margin among the nation’s top teams is slim. But playing in front of a supportive crowd in the Western time zone could go a long way toward helping the Pac-12 end a drought of nine years without a Final Four bid.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
