The Final Month
We made it through August trade season without any major closer deals. The most relevant swap sent a resurgent Addison Reed to the Mets. The Yankees blocked the Blue Jays from having a chance to acquire David Robertson. Similarly, waiver claims on Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit, and Francisco Rodriguez went nowhere.
Now we have September call ups to parse. Two names strike me as potential late inning relievers. Matt Moore will probably be used as a starter, but he could take Jake McGee's role instead. McGee is sidelined until mid-October. Miguel Castro hasn't pitched particularly well since joining the Rockies farm system. Given that John Axford has already lost the job once, Castro could see a couple save opportunities.
Base thieves continue to succeed at a 70.6 percent rate with a total of 2,085 steals in 2,954 attempts. We'll see the 3,000th attempt within the next few days. Probably Friday. Billy Hamilton still has a seven steal lead on Dee Gordon despite that he's missed a few weeks. Hamilton has taken 54 bags in 61 attempts (88.5 percent success rate). Gordon has 47 swipes in 63 attempts (74.6 percent success rate).
Jose Altuve and Elvis Andrus each stole four bases in the last week. Andrus was also caught once. Francisco Lindor, Charlie Blackmon, and Brandon Phillips all took three bags without getting caught.
Tier 1: Elite (4)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Chapman was the only top tier pitcher to allow a run in the last week. He was touched for a solo home run on Monday while recording a five out save. He's four punch outs short of his fourth straight 100 strikeout season. His owners have to be disappointed with only 26 saves, but at least he's still producing elite ratios.
Jansen was busy. He appeared five times (four saves) without incident. I'd expect him to rest tonight. Pick up Jim Johnson in daily moves leagues. Miller saved two in two appearances. Kimbrel saved his only opportunity in two outings.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (7)
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Familia added two saves to his total in four appearances. He's up to 36 saves on the season. He did allow a run on Monday, but the Mets had a three-run lead at the time. He struck out six in four innings. The Mets now have a deep bullpen with Tyler Clippard and Reed handling setup duties.
Careful now. Rosenthal occasionally gets into trouble via the walk. He walked one batter in each of his three outings last week. He lost the league lead in saves while attending the birth of his daughter. Kevin Siegrist and Steve Cishek remain viable fall back plans if Rosenthal wilts.
Like Chapman, it's a shame Robertson didn't get more save opportunities. He appeared twice in the last week with a save and a two inning win.
Britton scuffled through a non-save situation on Sunday. He allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits and a walk. He took a big step forward this year with his strikeout rate and should be viewed as a top 10 closer entering next season.
Melancon leads the league with 43 saves. He also has just 44 strikeouts in 63 innings. That's a problem for roto owners, but it's forgivable. He's offered strong three category value and figures to keep up the pace. He did allow two runs via home run in his most recent outing. He still earned the save.
Giles' numbers are reminiscent of Rosenthal. He has 11.20 K/9 with 3.22 BB/9 and a 1.53 ERA (3.05 xFIP). So long as he continues to suppress home runs, he'll remain a top closer. He threw 3.1 innings in two outings this week and saved one game.
Allen was unavailable yesterday which led to a blown save by Bryan Shaw. Allen was resting after facing eight batters the previous night in 1.1 innings. He saved two games in three appearances without allowing a run. He's 16 strikeouts shy of the century mark. I wonder if Zach McAllister will get the next spot-save.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (7)
Jonathan Papelbon, Washington Nationals
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
Papelbon finally got some work as a National. He pitched in four games and picked up two saves. He allowed one run, three hits, one walk, and struck out four in four innings.
Street coughed up a run yesterday, but the Angels had a five-run lead. He also saved one earlier in the week. Gregerson had an even easier week with one save in two appearances. Rondon had it the easiest with one save in one outing. He struck out a pair in a perfect inning.
Rodriguez was sharp in three of four appearances. The other outing included a two-run home run off the bat of Joey Votto and a costly passed ball. Overall, four runs scored (three earned).
Osuna struck out the side in his first outing of the week. He appeared for the second time yesterday and blew the save via solo home run. Sorry Yankees fans, the Blue Jays still won the game.
The Royals seemingly don't have the heart to flip Davis and Holland. Davis did snag another save after Holland pitched two days in a row. Holland allowed a couple runs on Thursday. Luckily, the Royals had a four run lead. At least he didn't walk anybody this week.
Tier 4: Questions (4)
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Minnesota Twins
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
It was an uneventful week for Ramos. He notched one save. There has been no news regarding Carter Capps' possible return. He was originally targeting sometime this week, but he probably needs to throw one or two more pain free bullpen sessions before he's allowed back.
Perkins returned to ninth inning duty yesterday with a successful save. There was plenty of stress involved despite starting the inning with a three-run lead. He allowed three hits and run. Jose Abreu came to plate as the tying run. He flied out. Kevin Jepsen could see a few more save opportunities in September. He earned two saves and a win in three appearances last week.
With McGee out, Boxberger has no obvious competition for the closer role. It was one of his good weeks. He pitched three times, picked up three saves, and struck out four batters.
Tolleson also saved three games. Yesterday, he allowed a pair of runs while protecting a four-run lead. Tolleson is good enough for fantasy owners, but he's not bulletproof.
Tier 5: Roller Coasters (8)
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers
Jean Machi, Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox
Tom Wilhelmsen, Carson Smith, Seattle Mariners
Drew Pomeranz, Fernando Rodriguez, Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
John Axford, Colorado Rockies
Our bottom tier can really be split into two groups – low ceiling closers with stable jobs and bundle of complete uncertainty. Vizcaino heads the former group, but he didn't receive a save opportunity last week. Casilla got some work in – 3.2 innings, one save, four strikeouts, and one base runner allowed.
Ziegler had the worst week of the trio. He tossed 3.2 innings over four appearances with 12 hits, one walk, one strikeout, and seven runs allowed. It's safe to play pin-the-tail-on-the-BABIP (.600 BABIP). I'm not any more concerned about him than I was last week. Whenever you have a guy who doesn't strike out batters, you're going to run into these slumps. Continue to expect a mid-3's ERA with a painfully low strikeout rate.
Rondon seemingly has the stuff of a decent closer. Plus velocity and a high strikeout rate are the modern prerequisites for ninth inning duties. However he's been hammered by a .379 BABIP and untimely sequencing. The result is a 6.56 ERA and 3.22 FIP. We can hope he'll pitch to his FIP over the rest of the season, but he'll lose the closer role if he keeps allowing four runs over 2.2 innings.
The Red Sox are using both Tazawa and Machi in the eighth and ninth innings. Tazawa earned a save and two holds. In his worst outing, he walked four and allowed a hit and a run. Machi snagged two saves. He also had a shaky outing with a hit, a run, and three walks. Neither reliever is remotely dependable.
Wilhelmsen pitched well with three saves, three strikeouts, one walk, and two hits in 3.1 innings. He's shaky command makes him a poor choice as a closer, but he could easily finish the year before being replaced via free agency.
Pomeranz has a tentative hold on the ninth inning. He earned his third save of the season. He also blew his third save. He's pitched well as a reliever with 10.53 K/9, 3.51BB/9, and a 2.16 ERA (1.96 FIP). Doolittle doesn't look like he'll reclaim the job this season.
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Injured
Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Nothing new to say here. All four will miss the rest of the season.
The Deposed
Chad Qualls
Joaquin Benoit
LaTroy Hawkins
Miguel Castro
Steve Cishek
Addison Reed
Neftali Feliz
Fernando Rodney
Brett Cecil
Jenrry Mejia
Drew Storen
Tyler Clippard
Joakim Soria
Jim Johnson
Tommy Kahnle
Alex Wilson
Edward Mujica
Carson Smith
Sean Doolittle
I've added Doolittle, but it's somewhat shocking he even made it back this year. Technically he lost his former job, but it's only because he's still in semi-rehab mode.
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The Steals Department
Francisco Lindor remains available in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues. After a slow start to his major league career, he's since caught fire. Since the All Star break, he's hitting .360/.400/.517 with five of his six stolen bases. Half of those six steals have come in the last seven days. Lindor has shown consistent 20 to 30 steal ability in the minors. It looks like he's starting to feel more comfortable on the bases. He bats second for the Indians most days, and can offer adequate production in all five standard categories.
One of the fastest men in professional baseball is back in the majors – Terrance Gore. To be clear, Gore is a very strange fantasy play. He'll mostly be used as a pinch runner (sorry Jonny Gomes). Last season, he appeared in 11 games – nine times purely as a pinch runner. He had just two plate appearances. Expect similar usage this year. He may take five to 10 bases over the course of the month. Obviously, you'll need a very specific use case to use him. He's not a fit for any of my 12 rosters.
Call ups like Dalton Pompey, Javier Baez, and Rob Refsnyder might be more useful. Pompey will have trouble cracking the starting lineup in the middle of a pennant race. He had a successful year in the minors after initially cratering. He's stolen 27 bases over 534 plate appearances.
Baez may play frequently. It probably depends upon how he does over the next 10 days. Is he the starting second baseman in October, or is it somebody else? Time will tell. He's stolen 18 bags in 332 plate appearances. Refsnyder is the least likely to run with 12 steals in 535 plate appearances.
