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Fantasy Rookie Rundown '16: Don't fear the unknown on Elliott, others

Draft Zeke Elliott and you too may laugh all the way to the bank. (Getty)
Draft Zeke Elliott and you too may laugh all the way to the bank. (Getty)

Disclaimer: Most of this piece originally ran on April 30. Due to the every-changing fantasy landscape, however, it has been spruced up to reflect the latest rookie trends and observations.

The joy of newness is interwoven into the consciousness of all Americans. We love that new car smell, fresh pair of Jordans feel and refreshing swig off a just cracked beer.

It’s so good when it hits the lips.

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When it comes to fantasy football, this psychology permeates into the typical owner’s mindset.

For many, high-profiled, much-hyped rookies are seducing, the sirens of the virtual game. They posted obscene numbers at the college level, were drafted into favorable “good fit” situations and are destined to produce. That’s what eternal optimists, admittedly me included, often believe.

However, the reality is rookies only sporadically deliver on their beaming promises. Since 2009, 33 total players at QB/RB/WR/TE (4.7 players per year) compiled starter-level stats on a points per game basis in standard 12-team leagues. Interestingly, compared to the previous seven-season stretch (2002-2008), the number of first-year impacts, though down slightly across the board (4.2 per year), is up measurably among QBs (’02-’08: 1, ’09-’15: 4) and WRs (12, 17).

Why?

With many elements from the college game, whether being terminology or designed plays, now infused at the pro level, the learning curve has shrunk, making it easier for kids to transition. Additionally, the makeup of the game has evolved from run-centric schemes to more pass-happy attacks. Every year from 2010-2015 ranks inside the top-five in pass yards per game per team. In fact, last season’s prolific 243.8 ypg bested 2014 by a whopping 7.0 ypg. Also consider the intense pressure NFL coaches and GMs generally face from impatient fan-bases – the fantasy community not excluded – and it’s no wonder why green commodities, particularly QBs, have undergone a baptism by fire.

Call it the Veruca Salt Effect. We want it all NOW!

Thanks social media.

Although WRs set the pace, largely because most leagues require three starters, numerous rookie RBs from 2009-2015 also left an indelible mark, 12 to be exact. Last year, Todd Gurley, Karlos Williams, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls earned such a designation. Others, like Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones, were useful in spurts. Not to overlook other positions, Marcus Mariota (QB21), Jameis Winston (QB18), Amari Cooper (WR31), DeVante Parker (WR35), Stefon Diggs (WR45) and Tyler Lockett (WR50) were also often sound contributors.

So, will the 2016 class pay immediate dividends?

The historical record may suggest otherwise, but expectations for anyone not named Ezekiel Elliott should be tempered. This year’s rookie crop, particularly wide receiver, isn’t the strongest. If a generational wideout eventually emerged, it would be quite the shocker special. Others like QBs Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch have incredible potential, but it will take time for them to reach peak maturation.

Even though most first-year players won’t consistently light up fantasy scoreboards this fall, a few are still roster worthy. In a game that rewards opportunity, a handful of youngsters are blessed with an advantageous path to snaps, targets and/or touches.

What newcomers could be cornerstones on fantasy rosters this season? Here are six players poised to make their mark (in order of projected contribution):

Ezekiel Elliott, Dal, RB (11.2 ADP, RB4)
When you think of monsters images of fang-bearing vampires, bloodthirsty zombies and ax-wielding psychos are immediately conjured. Soon, Elliott will trigger similar nightmares. The Ohio St. product is about to terrorize the league. He’s a do-it-all, three-down workhorse, a rusher some scouts have called the most complete back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. Believe it or not, that high praise is appropriate. The 6-foot, 225-pound stallion left Ohio St. after averaging a school-record 6.7 yards per carry in three years. He’s fast (4.47 40-yard dash), brutalizing between the tackles (57.4 YAC% in ’15), deceptively elusive (18.5 missed-tackle rate in ’15), sure-handed as a receiver, durable and an exceptional pass blocker.

Similar to fantasy behemoths before him like Edgerrin James, Marshawn Lynch and Ricky Williams, the youngster is a throwback talent who’s sure to be Dallas’ offensive anchor for years to come. There truly are no weaknesses to his game. Though Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris will enter the mix for Jason Garrett’s club, Elliott’s impressive skill set has him fixed atop the depth chart. Assuming his tender hammy isn’t a long-term problem, he’s a near lock to register some 20-22 touches per game operating behind arguably the NFL’s most robust offensive line. Jerry Jones didn’t spend the FOURTH OVERALL pick on a committee rusher. He wants to employ Zeke early and often to protect Tony Romo and keep his rickety defense fresh. Considering the premiums every-down backs attract, he’s easily worth a mid-first round pick in 12-team drafts, standard or PPR. Only David Johnson and Lamar Miller rank higher on my RB big board. Need more convincing? Read this.

Fearless Forecast: 298 carries, 1,319 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 463 receiving yards, 13 total touchdowns

Sterling Shepard, NYG, WR (88.7 ADP, WR38)
The last Sterling to catch footballs for a living was some dude named Sterling Sharpe. Soon, the rookie of the same name may also leave an indelible mark on the position. On film, Shepard has the look of an energetic hamster. At 5-foot-10, 194 pounds he’s on the small side, but his marvelous footwork, 4.48-40 yard speed and elusiveness in space, reminiscent of Brandin Cooks, makes him extremely difficult to contain.

Because of his diminutive frame, press coverage could initially be a challenge. Still, he was a highly efficient, reliable weapon for Oklahoma logging considerable time in the slot. He dropped only four balls on 89 catchable passes and notched an 82 catch percentage on hitch/stick routes last year per Pro Football Focus. With defenses focused on neutralizing Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz practically washed up and Rueben Randle playing elsewhere, he should have plenty of opportunities right away, possibly enticing some 7-8 targets per game and many of those against favorable coverage. Other than maybe Thomas, there isn’t a first-year WR with more fantasy starter potential.

Fearless Forecast: 67 receptions, 903 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

Michael Thomas, NO, WR (115.3 ADP, WR44)
The talent amassed by Urban Meyer was stunning. Thomas, another Ohio St. product, could channel Marques Colston circa 2006. Recall in the former Saints’ rookie season, then tabbed a WR/TE in the Yahoo fantasy universe, he accumulated an out-of-nowhere 70-1038-8 line. Equipped with fly-trap hands, plus height, strength and ridiculous ball-tracking adaptability, Thomas, who is filling the legendary Fleur de lis’ shoes, may make a similar splash. Throughout training camp and thus far in the preseason, he’s triggered salivary glands with one acrobatic catch after another. Scouts knocked his play absorption wits, but, as Drew Brees has attested all summer, the kid has risen up to every challenge. In a Saints system that’s surpassed 627 pass attempts in six consecutive years, he’s a probable candidate to entice 100-plus targets, even in a socialist offense.

As touched on above, unlike in past years where rookie wide receivers would take three or more years to fully mature, the developmental processes at the collegiate level combined with the implementation and popularity of spread concepts in the pros has shrunk the learning curve dramatically. In many cases, first-year targets are coming into the league are more polished and prepared. Thomas is one such weapon.

Fearless Forecast: 63 receptions, 887 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Corey Coleman, Cle, WR (101.4, WR40)
Please Josh Gordon, stay on the straight and narrow. Coleman desperately needs you. With or without the wacky tobacky enthusiast, the Baylor standout should see plentiful targets. He’s explosive (4.32 40-yard), bendy and generally pugnacious, a wideout similar in style and substance as Baltimore’s Steve Smith. Though a mettlesome hamstring injury cost him two Preseason games and numerous practices, he’s likely to start outside in Hue Jackson’s ascending offense. If Robert Griffin III, who’s played brilliantly thus far showcasing vintage arm strength, versatility and increased composure, continues his resurrection, the rookie could certainly deliver a top-36 line. Keep in mind, the Browns defense will struggle to earn its Milkbones this fall.

Coleman needs to expand the route tree to drum up fantasy interest in shallow formats and the missed developmental time could foster a sluggish start, but without much competition for downfield looks outside Gordon, who’s sidelined for the regular season’s first four games, and Gary Barnidge, he’s sure to make a significant fantasy impact.

Fearless Forecast: 64 receptions, 876 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Kenneth Dixon, Bal, RB (154.5, RB51)
The second-best RB on my NFL Draft big board, Dixon is an open-field magician who typically makes the first guy miss (No. 3 elusive rating among FBS RBs last year). His exceptional hands, laser vision, patience, quickness around the edge and respectable pass-blocking ability are three-down traits. Some have questioned his toughness between the tackles, but, believe me, the kid has the tenacity of a junkyard dog. His 60.6 yards after contact rate from 2015 offers supportive evidence.

He isn’t without warts – he racked 889 total touches in four years at LA Tech and fumbled four times on 197 carries last fall – but his pluses should quickly convince Baltimore coaches he’s a top-of-the-totem-pole producer. Given Justin Forsett’s advanced age, Buck Allen’s mediocrity and Terrance West’s previous stumbles, Dixon’s chances of stealing the show by mid-season are palpable. Behind a quality offensive line (No. 14 in run-blocking per Football Outsiders in ’15), he could invigorate the fantasy masses if he can march up the depth chart quickly. If not, and he will be a minimal contributor over the season’s first half.

Fearless Forecast: 161 attempts, 665 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 241 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns

Laquon Treadwell, Min, WR (117.1 ADP, WR45)
Largely perceived as the top pass-catching option on many draftnik boards, Treadwell is an undeterred, intelligent target with ideal NFL size (6-foot-2, 220-pounds) and route savvy, a player with characteristics some scouts have compared to Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery and DeAndre Hopkins. A prolific producer at Ole Miss, he hauled in 82 passes (on 122 targets) for 1,146 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Rebels last year. His willingness to do dirty work across the middle on slants (71 catch%) and crosses (75 catch%) and effectiveness on go routes exhibit his versatility.

Because of his pedestrian speed (4.63 40-yard) many question whether he’ll gain adequate separation at the next level, particularly on sideline streaks beyond 20 yards. Though that concern is warranted, he should be an impactful possession/red-zone weapon from the get go, provided he wraps his mitts in double-sided tape. According to Pro Football Focus, Treadwell dropped nine of 91 catchable balls last season, good for the 80th-best catch rate among FBS WRs. In order for him to stay out of the doghouse, lapses in concentration must be few and far between. The Vikings, who chucked it a “whopping” 454 times last year, aren’t an ideal employer, but OC Norv Turner will almost surely heavily involve the rookie right away. Stefon Diggs is the more attractive Minnesotan, but tab Treadwell as a WR4/WR5 on fantasy draft day.

Fearless Forecast: 57 receptions, 674 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Murray is the likely locker room leader in touches, but Henry should see some 8-10 touches per game. (Getty)
Murray is the likely locker room leader in touches, but Henry should see some 8-10 touches per game. (Getty)

OTHER ROOKIES TO ROSTER

Derrick Henry, Ten, RB (100.8 ADP, RB38) – When the Titans selected Henry in the second round, this rather boisterous analyst stared at the television in stone silence. Why on earth would a team, which recently traded for DeMarco Murray, invest in another hammer-type rusher? Then it dawned on me … ‘Exotic smashmouth!’ The Heisman winner is a giant, bulldozing runner with terrific speed (4.54 40-yard) for a player his size (6-foot-3, 247 pounds). However, his hands are questionable and he’s insufficient in pass-blocking. Still, he should wrest away some early-down and possibly goal-line work in a possible 70-30 split with Murray. His devastating power stood out Preseason Week 1 against San Diego, but, at this point, he’s only an upside bench back in redraft leagues. Still, an 8-10 touch per game workload off the blocks is within reason.

Tajae Sharpe, Ten, WR (152.2, WR61) – As his last name suggests, the UMass product, selected in Round 5 of last May’s NFL Draft, has quietly pierced defenses this month. Sudden and precise in his routes, he’s flashed veteran grit, toughness and sure hands (dropped only seven of 204 catchable balls his last two years in college) hauling in a number of difficult passes from Marcus Mariota. His six-catch, 68-yard performance Preseason Week 2 definitely grabbed owner attention. The Titans’ conservative offense will, figuratively speaking, resemble the wishbone. Dealnie Walker, Rishard Matthews and Kendall Wright also present stiff competition for targets. Despite the downsides, Sharpe has the talent and opportunity to occasionally crack fantasy starting lineups in 12-team leagues. On the high side he could amass a 65-875-6 line.

Tyler Boyd, Cin, WR (141.4 ADP, WR54) – Not originally included on this list, Boyd has defied my low expectations so far this Preseason. The pride of Pitt was a highly productive player for the Panthers. He excelled at various spots, outside and in the slot, showcased tacky hands (71.8 catch percentage) and marvelous route-running skills. Thus far, his entire arsenal has transitioned seamlessly to the pro game evidenced in his 3-78-1 output this exhibition season. Because of his below average strength, gaining separation downfield could be problematic at times, but with Brandon LaFell dealing with a hand injury, and persistent suckiness, the kid could wind up starting the year alongside A.J. Green. He undoubtedly possesses WR3 potential out of the gate.

DeAndre Washington, Oak, RB (149.6 ADP, RB49) – The demise of Latavius Murray is greatly exaggerated. Locked into the catbird seat in Oakland, he’s slated for repeated vigorous workloads this season. However, if the veteran wears down identically to last year, Washington will shrink the touch gap in short order. The Texas Tech product wowed Raiders coaches and onlookers early in camp. He’s quick through the hole, elusive, possesses deceptive power, can adequately pass protect and is a dependable receiver. He’ll start the year as Jack Del Rio’s change-of-pace option, but a wider role down the road is in the cards. Like many guys on this list, he’s a very attractive handcuff.

Devontae Booker, Den, RB (140.2 ADP, RB45) – It’s rubber stamped C.J. Anderson will open the season as the Broncos’ No. 1, especially after signing a healthy contract this offseason, but if nagging injuries hamper him again, Booker will get a shot to shine. Yes, over wretched Ronnie Hillman. He’s a fall-forward, decisive runner with a legitimate three-down skill set, a perfect fit for Gary Kubiak’s one-cut-and-go scheme. In many ways, he’s a greener version of Anderson. Stash him late.

Jordan Howard, Chi, RB (168.1 ADP, RB57) – Admittedly, I drove the bandwagon for another Indiana RB, Tevin Coleman, last year, but unlike his predecessor, Howard is a stronger interior runner. He routinely bulled through contact (58.7 YAC% in ’15) even against stiff Big Ten competition (e.g. 22-174-2 vs. Iowa). Additionally, the new Bear evades tacklers well (17.8 MT%), halts oncoming rushers and protects the football. Also displaying impressive vision, patience, cutting and pad level, he is a rock solid early-down contributor who, in time, could supplant projected RBBC head Jeremy Langford at the goal-line. His biggest knock: John Fox, who historically doesn’t employ rookies.

Will Fuller, HOU, WR (154.3 ADP, WR62) – Fuller can seriously fly. On go routes, he leaves a trail of flames in his wake. However, that’s all this one-trick pony does. He’s a field-stretcher who was plagued by the dropsies (10 DPs in 2015) while at Notre Dame. In other words, he’s Ted Ginn all over again. Blah. Because of the defensive attention DeAndre Hopkins draws, bank on a splashy catch or three from the youngster this season, but he’ll be wildly inconsistent. At best, he’s a WR5 in 12-teamers.

Josh Doctson, Was, WR (150.2, WR60) – It’s been a tumultuous summer, to say the least, for Doctson. A nagging Achilles injury kept him sidelined through much of OTAs, training camp and the Preseason. Only recently activated off the PUP, the wideout is in full catch-up mode. The TCU standout was my favorite receiver in this year’s class. His length, wide wingspan, sticky fingers and leaping ability (41-inch vertical) offered substantial upside and posed an immediate threat to aging Pierre Garcon’s playing time. Now, however, given the expanded learning curve, he may not deliver appreciable returns until at least Week 5, or later. He’ll eventually develop into a premier red-zone weapon, but until he sees plentiful snaps, he’ll largely wade in fantasy free agent pools.

Paul Perkins, NYG, RB (170.9 ADP, RB58) – The former Bruin’s arrival should mercifully end Andre Williams’ reign of putridity. Woohoo! Rashad Jennings is locked in as the Week 1 starter, but Perkins is clearly the organization’s running back of the future. He’s a sudden, shifty RB who leaves defenders hugging air. His 30.9 missed tackle rate last year at UCLA was borderline obscene. Pass-blocking and receiving are areas for improvement, but he should record some 10-12 touches per game, if not more, very, very soon.

C.J. Prosise, Sea, RB (159.7 ADP, RB54) – Another Golden Domer, Prosise was the “Skee-Lo of South Bend,” a one-hit wonder. In his only season as a full-time RB, the converted DB/WR was nothing short of spectacular tallying 6.6 yards per carry, 1,340 combined yards and 12 total touchdowns. He exhibited an undeterred attitude between the tackles, explosiveness off the edge and deceptive power. His pass pro is a work in progress and the critical time he missed due to injury this August dampens the overall outlook, but he remains a player to monitor as the regular season unfolds. But if Christine Michael continues his ‘awakening,’ Prosise could be on the outside looking in for much, if not the entire, 2016 season.

Keep a close eye on: Josh Ferguson, Ind, RB, Jared Goff, LA, QB, Rob Kelley, Was, RB, Braxton Miller, Hou, WR

Harass Brad on Twitter @YahooNoise