Fantasy MVPs & LVPs
It's the 16th annual edition of the fantasy MVPs and LVPs column. Awards are given to players that most over- or underperformed my preseason projections. So, basically, everyone I was most wrong about. I do, however, give injured players a break when it comes to LVPs.
I also have my real MVP/Cy Young/ROY choices below.
The Fantasy Most Valuable Players
Catchers
MVP - Devin Mesoraco
Projection: .249/.317/.405, 13 HR, 40 R, 48 RBI, 1 SB in 378 AB
2014 stats: .273/.359/.534, 25 HR, 54 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 384 AB
A disappointment while sharing time with Ryan Hanigan in Cincinnati, Mesoraco hit .225/.282/.359 with 16 homers in 538 major league at-bats through age 25. This year, he had the job all to himself and busted out, putting up the highest OPS for a Reds catcher since Johnny Bench finished at .920 in 1972. In retrospect, I wish I had projected him to hit for more power, but he came up short of my projections there each of the previous two seasons (I had him slugging .421 in both 2012 and ’13 and he came in at .352 and .362 those two years).
Honorable Mention - Yan Gomes, Jonathan Lucroy, Russell Martin
2013 Winner - Jonathan Lucroy
2012 Winner - Wilin Rosario
2011 Winner - Alex Avila
2010 Winner - Buster Posey
2009 Winner - Joe Mauer
2008 Winner - Ryan Doumit
2007 Winner - Russell Martin
2006 Winner - Brian McCann
2005 Winner - Brandon Inge
2004 Winner - Craig Wilson
2003 Winner - Javy Lopez
2002 Winner - Eli Marrero
2001 Winner - Paul Lo Duca
2000 Winner - Charles Johnson
1999 Winner - Mike Sweeney
LVP - Joe Mauer
Projection: .330/.414/.474, 13 HR, 84 R, 77 RBI, 4 SB in 576 AB
2014 stats: .277/.361/.371, 4 HR, 60 R, 55 RBI, 3 SB in 455 AB
I was accused of inflating Mauer’s projection here because of the switch off catcher, but it was far more of a case of simply inflating his playing time; the projected .888 OPS was barely higher than his .861 and .880 marks the previous two years. I had Mauer as the No. 1 catcher because I felt he was a much better bet to stay healthy than ever before. Alas, he had an awful first half and then got hurt anyway, suffering a strained oblique. He played far better after returning, but still not up to his usual standards. Without catcher eligibility, he’ll be something of a forgotten man entering next year. I expect that he’ll prove to be a good value pick as a second first baseman.
Dishonorable Mention - Wilin Rosario, Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski
2013 Loser - Jesus Montero
2012 Loser - Carlos Santana
2011 Loser - Joe Mauer
2010 Loser - Matt Wieters
2009 Loser - Russell Martin
2008 Loser - Kenji Johjima
2007 Loser - Ramon Hernandez
2006 Loser - Javy Lopez
2005 Loser - Jason Kendall
2004 Loser - Mike Piazza
2003 Loser - Paul Lo Duca
2002 Loser - Charles Johnson
2001 Loser - Jason Kendall
2000 Loser - Michael Barrett
1999 Loser - Todd Hundley
First Basemen/Designated Hitters
MVP - Victor Martinez
Projection: .293/.350/.435, 16 HR, 68 R, 91 RBI, 0 SB in 570 AB
2014 stats: .335/.409/.565, 32 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 3 SB in 561 AB
I can’t imagine that anyone saw this coming; Martinez’s previous high water mark was 2007, when he hit .301-25-114 with an .879 OPS as a 28-year-old for the Indians. At age 35, he blew away those numbers, besting his previous best OPS by 95 points and hitting six more homers than he did in 2011 and ’13 combined (Martinez, of course, missed 2012 with a torn ACL). He even stole three bases after totaling four in his first 11 seasons combined. I don’t know what to make of him for next year. His approach at the plate is pretty much perfect now, but the extra power might disappear as quickly as it arrived.
Honorable Mention - Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Carter
2013 Winner - Chris Davis
2012 Winner - Adam LaRoche
2011 Winner - Mark Trumbo
2010 Winner - Joey Votto
2009 Winner - Kendrys Morales
2008 Winner - Aubrey Huff
2007 Winner - Carlos Pena
2006 Winner - Ryan Howard
2005 Winner - Derrek Lee
2004 Winner - Travis Hafner
2003 Winner - Carlos Delgado
2002 Winner - Derrek Lee
2001 Winner - Ryan Klesko
2000 Winner - Frank Thomas
1999 Winner - John Jaha
LVP - Chris Davis
Projection: .270/.347/.533, 39 HR, 88 R, 117 RBI, 2 SB in 574 AB
2014 stats: .196/.300/.404, 26 HR, 65 R, 72 RBI, 2 SB in 450 AB
Any chance that Allen Craig might get this over Davis ended when Davis was suspended for 25 games for taking Adderall. Davis lost a full 300 points of OPS from his near-MVP season in 2013, and his home run and RBI totals were practically cleaved in half. I’m still going to pencil in Davis as a top-10 first baseman next year. He had a career .335 batting average on balls in play until plummeting to .242 this year. His always prodigious strikeout rate was up some, but not excessively so, and his swing-and-miss rate held steady. His line-drive rate, while not a number I trust overly much, was above his career rate. I’m not writing him off.
Dishonorable Mention - Allen Craig, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Joey Votto
2013 Loser - Ike Davis
2012 Loser - Eric Hosmer
2011 Loser - Adam Dunn
2010 Loser - Lance Berkman
2009 Loser - David Ortiz
2008 Loser - Travis Hafner
2007 Loser - Richie Sexson
2006 Loser - Todd Helton
2005 Loser - Todd Helton
2004 Loser - Jason Giambi
2003 Loser - Paul Konerko
2002 Loser - Tony Clark
2001 Loser - Mark McGwire
2000 Loser - Sean Casey
1999 Loser - Darin Erstad
Second Basemen
MVP - Jose Altuve
Projection: .293/.334/.395, 7 HR, 67 R, 59 RBI, 27 SB in 597 AB
2014 stats: .341/.377/.453, 7 HR, 85 R, 59 RBI, 56 SB in 660 AB
Less stunning than Altuve winning a batting title was the 56-steal campaign. He swiped 33 and 35 bases in his first two full seasons, and especially since he led the AL with 13 caught stealings last year, I thought he’d do less running this time around. Instead, he led the AL by a whopping 17 steals. That and the average were enough to put him on the short list for this year’s most valuable player in fantasy leagues. If only he had gotten more help from his teammates, he’d have easily been on top.
Honorable Mention - Josh Harrison, Anthony Rendon, Brian Dozier
2013 Winner - Matt Carpenter
2012 Winner - Aaron Hill
2011 Winner - Ben Zobrist
2010 Winner - Rickie Weeks
2009 Winner - Aaron Hill
2008 Winner - Dustin Pedroia
2007 Winner - Brandon Phillips
2006 Winner - Dan Uggla
2005 Winner - Chone Figgins
2004 Winner - Mark Loretta
2003 Winner - Marcus Giles
2002 Winner - Alfonso Soriano
2001 Winner - Bret Boone
2000 Winner - Jose Vidro
1999 Winner - Roberto Alomar
LVP - Jason Kipnis
Projection: .290/.368/.454, 18 HR, 83 R, 87 RBI, 25 SB in 573 AB
2014 stats: .240/.310/.330, 6 HR, 61 R, 41 RBI, 22 SB in 500 AB
I’m expunging Kipnis’s 2014 from the record; the strained oblique he suffered in April followed him around the rest of the season, preventing him from showing his usual power. If there had been some other strong candidates, I might have even excused him from the LVP here. However, the other big disappointment at second base, Dustin Pedroia, also suffered from a nagging injury. Jedd Gyorko was another possible option, but I simply wasn’t very high on him in the first place.
Dishonorable Mention - Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Jedd Gyorko
2013 Loser - Rickie Weeks
2012 Loser - Jemile Weeks
2011 Loser - Chone Figgins
2010 Loser - Aaron Hill
2009 Loser - Kelly Johnson
2008 Loser - Robinson Cano
2007 Loser - Josh Barfield
2006 Loser - Jorge Cantu
2005 Loser - Bret Boone
2004 Loser - Alfonso Soriano
2003 Loser - Roberto Alomar
2002 Loser - Roberto Alomar
2001 Loser - Edgardo Alfonzo
2000 Loser - Jose Offerman
1999 Loser - Delino DeShields
Third Basemen
MVP - Todd Frazier
Projection: .248/.317/.448, 24 HR, 68 R, 81 RBI, 7 SB in 536 AB
2014 stats: .273/.336/.459, 29 HR, 88 R, 80 RBI, 20 SB in 597 AB
Frazier exceeded expectations offensively, but the main reason he’s here is the steals; he totaled 10 in his first 319 games as a major leaguer before going 20-for-28 this year. I still think Frazier is more of a .250 hitter than a .275 guy going forward, but we’ll see. I won’t be recommending him in fantasy leagues next year.
Honorable Mention - Josh Donaldson, Trevor Plouffe, Kyle Seager
2013 Winner - Josh Donaldson
2012 Winner - Chase Headley
2011 Winner - Jose Bautista
2010 Winner - Jose Bautista
2009 Winner - Mark Reynolds
2008 Winner - Jorge Cantu
2007 Winner - Ryan Braun
2006 Winner - Michael Cuddyer
2005 Winner - Morgan Ensberg
2004 Winner - Adrian Beltre
2003 Winner - Bill Mueller
2002 Winner - Aaron Boone
2001 Winner - Albert Pujols
2000 Winner - Troy Glaus
1999 Winner - Fernando Tatis
LVP - David Wright
Projection: .298/.384/.497, 25 HR, 88 R, 84 RBI, 14 SB in 561 AB
2014 stats: .269/.324/.374, 8 HR, 54 R, 63 RBI, 8 SB in 535 AB
Wright wouldn’t cop to his shoulder problem for most of the year, which leaves me no qualms about including him here. Of course, as time went on and he continued to put up such modest numbers, it became pretty clear that some kind of injury was limiting him. Before finishing at .698 this year, his worst ever OPS was a .771 mark during an injury-limited 2011 season. A .837 mark in 2009 was his second worst.
Dishonorable Mention - Chase Headley, Will Middlebrooks, Pedro Alvarez, Evan Longoria
2013 Loser - Pablo Sandoval
2012 Loser - Mark Reynolds
2011 Loser - Pedro Alvarez
2010 Loser - Pablo Sandoval
2009 Loser - Garrett Atkins
2008 Loser - Chone Figgins
2007 Loser - Eric Chavez
2006 Loser - Hank Blalock
2005 Loser - Adrian Beltre
2004 Loser - Eric Hinske
2003 Loser - Edgardo Alfonzo
2002 Loser - Jeff Cirillo
2001 Loser - Tony Batista
2000 Loser - Vinny Castilla
1999 Loser - Ken Caminiti
Shortstops
MVP - Dee Gordon
Projection: .262/.324/.335, 2 HR, 42 R, 20 RBI, 35 SB in 328 AB
2014 stats: .289/.326/.378, 2 HR, 92 R, 34 RBI, 64 SB in 609 AB
In my estimation, Gordon is the overall fantasy MVP this year, given that he went undrafted in many mixed leagues. The surprise with him wasn’t that he stole 64 bases; it was that he hit well enough to stay in the leadoff spot for the Dodgers all year long. Along with the major league-high steal total, he was an asset in batting average and he finished eighth in the NL in runs scored.
Honorable Mention - Alcides Escobar, Danny Santana, Alexei Ramirez
2013 Winner - Jean Segura
2012 Winner - Ian Desmond
2011 Winner - Asdrubal Cabrera
2010 Winner - Omar Infante
2009 Winner - Ben Zobrist
2008 Winner - Mike Aviles
2007 Winner - Hanley Ramirez
2006 Winner - Hanley Ramirez
2005 Winner - Felipe Lopez
2004 Winner - Carlos Guillen
2003 Winner - Edgar Renteria
2002 Winner - David Eckstein
2001 Winner - Rich Aurilia
2000 Winner - Jose Valentin
1999 Winner - Jay Bell
LVP - Jean Segura
Projection: .282/.335/.380, 8 HR, 82 R, 47 RBI, 37 SB in 610 AB
2014 stats: .246/.289/.326, 5 HR, 61 R, 31 RBI, 20 SB in 513 AB
I thought I was pretty down on Segura this year -- I had him losing 37 points of his OPS from his age-23 campaign -- but I obviously wasn’t down on him enough. Segura turned out to be one of the game’s worst hitters, and he also went from swiping 44 bases in 57 attempts in 2013 to going 20-for-29 this year. The talent is there for Segura to bounce back, but if I’m the Brewers, I’d bring in someone to compete with him at shortstop this winter. At the very least, it’d give him some extra motivation.
Dishonorable Mention - Elvis Andrus, Brad Miller, Hanley Ramirez, Andrelton Simmons
2013 Loser - Starlin Castro
2012 Loser - Elvis Andrus
2011 Loser - Hanley Ramirez
2010 Loser - Yunel Escobar
2009 Loser - Jimmy Rollins
2008 Loser - Troy Tulowitzki
2007 Loser - Bill Hall
2006 Loser - Clint Barmes
2005 Loser - Kaz Matsui
2004 Loser - Angel Berroa
2003 Loser - Jose Hernandez
2002 Loser - Rich Aurilia
2001 Loser - Tony Womack
2000 Loser - Royce Clayton
1999 Loser - Royce Clayton
Outfielders
MVPs - Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson
Brantley’s projection: .303/.352/.437, 12 HR, 71 R, 70 RBI, 17 SB in 558 AB
Brantley’s 2014 stats: .327/.385/.506, 20 HR, 94 R, 97 RBI, 23 SB in 611 AB
Blackmon’s projection: .278/.332/.417, 5 HR, 33 R, 21 RBI, 6 SB in 230 AB
Blackmon’s 2014 stats: .288/.335/.440, 19 HR, 82 R, 72 RBI, 28 SB in 593 AB
Dickerson’s projection: .288/.336/.469, 9 HR, 51 R, 36 RBI, 8 SB in 320 AB
Dickerson’s 2014 stats: .312/.364/.567, 24 HR, 74 R, 76 RBI, 8 SB in 436 AB
Brantley was one of my favorite sleepers, and I projected him to beat his career highs in average by 15 points and in slugging by 35 points. I didn’t know he had this in him, though. Not only did he go from 10 to 20 homers, but he upped his doubles total from 26 last year to 45 this year. … In my eagerness to see Dickerson play, I overlooked Blackmon as a potential mixed-league contributor, which was a big mistake. That crowded Rockies outfield with Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, Drew Stubbs and Brandon Barnes also all on the roster ended up resolving itself pretty quickly, though not before Dickerson was actually sent down to Triple-A for a week in April.
Honorable Mention - Nelson Cruz, J.D Martinez, Ben Revere, Giancarlo Stanton
2013 Winners - Carlos Gomez, Yasiel Puig, Marlon Byrd
2012 Winners - Mike Trout, Alex Rios, Adam Jones
2011 Winners - Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera
2010 Winners - Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Angel Pagan
2009 Winners - Adam Lind, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp
2008 Winners - Ryan Ludwick, Josh Hamilton, Nate McLouth
2007 Winners - Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Eric Byrnes
2006 Winners - Jermaine Dye, Gary Matthews Jr., Matt Holliday
2005 Winners - Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Andruw Jones
2004 Winners - Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Aaron Rowand, Jeromy Burnitz
2003 Winners - Gary Sheffield, Scott Podsednik, Vernon Wells
2002 Winners - Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson
2001 Winners - Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Bonds, Cliff Floyd
2000 Winners - Darin Erstad, Richard Hidalgo, John Vander Wal
1999 Winners - Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, Roger Cedeno
LVPs - Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Ryan Braun
Choo’s projection: .286/.391/.463, 21 HR, 108 R, 80 RBI, 17 SB in 594 AB
Choo’s 2014 stats: .242/.340/.374, 13 HR, 58 R, 40 RBI, 3 SB in 455 AB
Bruce’s projection: .253/.331/.503, 37 HR, 89 R, 111 RBI, 5 SB in 592 AB
Bruce’s 2014 stats: .217/.281/.373, 18 HR, 71 R, 66 RBI, 12 SB in 493 AB
Braun’s projection: .298/.377/.527, 31 HR, 99 R, 97 RBI, 21 SB in 590 AB
Braun’s 2014 stats: .266/.324/.453, 19 HR, 68 R, 91 RBI, 11 SB in 530 AB
These LVPs were the toughest calls. All of the highly ranked outfielders that turned bust were injury cases, from Choo, Bruce and Braun to Carlos Gonzalez and Bryce Harper to Wil Myers and Carlos Beltran further down the rankings. The biggest non-injury busts were guys outside the top 30, such as Domonic Brown, Alfonso Soriano, Will Venable, Andre Ethier and B.J. Upton. Jason Heyward and Alex Rios were disappointments higher up the rankings, but they didn’t compare to Choo, Braun and Bruce as team killers. My preference is not to pick on injured guys, but Choo played in 123 games, Bruce played in 137 and Braun played in 135. The first two weren’t any good at all, and while Braun was certainly an above average player, he ended up losing 50 points of average, 200 points of OPS and 22 homers from his 2012 campaign.
Dishonorable Mention - Domonic Brown, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Alfonso Soriano
2013 Losers - Ryan Braun, B.J. Upton, Jason Heyward
2012 Losers - Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Delmon Young
2011 Losers - Carl Crawford, Alex Rios, Jason Heyward
2010 Losers - Matt Kemp, Adam Lind, Carlos Lee
2009 Losers - Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Alfonso Soriano
2008 Losers - Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Carl Crawford
2007 Losers - Jason Bay, Andruw Jones, Jermaine Dye
2006 Losers - Jason Lane, Randy Winn, Scott Podsednik
2005 Losers - Carlos Beltran, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson
2004 Losers - Sammy Sosa, Marlon Byrd, Brian Giles
2003 Losers - Pat Burrell, Shawn Green, Larry Walker
2002 Losers - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Pierre, Richard Hidalgo
2001 Losers - Richard Hidalgo, Darin Erstad, Carl Everett
2000 Losers - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran
1999 Losers - Jose Cruz Jr., Kenny Lofton, Ray Lankford
Starting Pitchers
MVPs - Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards, Johnny Cueto, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark
Kluber’s projection: 12-9, 3.72 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 172 K in 183 2/3 IP
Kluber’s 2014 stats: 18-9, 2.44 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, 269 K in 235 2/3 IP
Richards’ projection: 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 132 K in 181 2/3 IP
Richards’ 2014 stats: 13-4, 2.61 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 164 K in 168 2/3 IP
Cueto’s projection: 14-8, 3.36 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 149 K in 190 1/3 IP
Cueto’s 2014 stats: 20-9, 2.25 ERA, 0.960 WHIP, 242 K in 243 2/3 IP
Arrieta’s projection: 8-9, 4.06 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 120 K in 142 IP
Arrieta’s 2014 stats: 10-5, 2.53 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 167 K in 156 2/3 IP
Roark’s projection: 8-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.252 WHIP, 84 K in 119 IP
Roark’s 2014 stats: 15-10, 2.85 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 138 K in 198 2/3 IP
I could have squeezed Clayton Kershaw in here somewhere, but that would have meant bumping a top-20 starter in Arrieta or Roark, both of whom could be found on waiver wires weeks into the season. I wish I had been higher on Richards, though at least I did recognize that mistake in early April and started recommending him in mixed leagues. I was too slow to do the same with Roark and Collin McHugh.
Honorable Mention - Clayton Kershaw, Collin McHugh, Phil Hughes, Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Carrasco
2013 Winners - Hisashi Iwakuma, Max Scherzer, Jose Fernandez, Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey
2012 Winners - R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Chris Sale
2011 Winners - Justin Verlander, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw, Doug Fister
2010 Winners - Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver
2009 Winners - Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Wandy Rodriguez, Joel Pineiro
2008 Winners - Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana, Roy Halladay
2007 Winners - Fausto Carmona, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, James Shields, Erik Bedard
2006 Winners - Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Harang, Justin Verlander
2005 Winners - Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee, John Patterson
2004 Winners - Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano, Oliver Perez, Chris Carpenter
2003 Winners - Esteban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Livan Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay
2002 Winners - Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, Roy Halladay
2001 Winners - Mark Mulder, Joe Mays, John Burkett, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt
2000 Winners - Ryan Dempster, Jeff D’Amico, Glendon Rusch, Darryl Kile, Chan Ho Park
1999 Winners - Mike Hampton, Todd Ritchie, Tim Hudson, Kevin Millwood, Jose Lima
LVPs - Justin Verlander, Mike Minor, Clay Buchholz, C.J. Wilson, Justin Masterson
Verlander’s projection: 18-9, 3.13 ERA, 1.152 WHIP, 213 K in 227 1/3 IP
Verlander’s 2014 stats: 15-12, 4.54 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 159 K in 206 IP
Minor’s projection: 13-9, 3.47 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 159 K in 184 1/3 IP
Minor’s 2014 stats: 6-12, 4.77 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 120 K in 145 1/3 IP
Buchholz’s projection: 15-7, 3.55 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 154 K in 190 IP
Buchholz’s 2014 stats: 8-11, 5.34 ERA, 1.386 WHIP, 132 K in 170 1/3 IP
Wilson’s projection: 14-11, 3.46 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, 172 K in 205 1/3 IP
Wilson’s 2014 stats: 13-10, 4.51 ERA, 1.446 WHIP, 151 K in 175 2/3 IP
Masterson’s projection: 14-11, 3.70 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 178 K in 206 2/3 IP
Masterson’s 2014 stats: 6-9, 5.88 ERA, 1.632 WHIP, 116 K in 126 2/3 IP
A consequence of this being the year of the pitcher was that there weren’t many flops at all. Verlander was my only top-20 starter who stayed healthy and failed to meet expectations. Minor was a big disappointment, probably because of the shoulder issues that sidelined him both at the start and at the very end of the year. Further down were the more obvious busts: Buchholz, Wilson and Masterson were my No. 35, No. 39 and No. 56 starters, respectively. I could also throw Dan Straily in there, given that I had him ranked higher than Masterson, but at least he was kind enough to make it obvious in April that this was not going to be his year.
Dishonorable Mention - Tony Cingrani, Danny Salazar, Dan Straily, Tim Lincecum, Marco Estrada
2013 Losers - CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson
2012 Losers - Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Jon Lester, Dan Haren
2011 Losers - Brian Matusz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Ricky Nolasco, Chad Billingsley
2010 Losers - Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez, A.J. Burnett
2009 Losers - Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Joba Chamberlain, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka
2008 Losers - Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, Rich Hill
2007 Losers - Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Mussina, Dontrelle Willis, Jose Contreras, Scott Olsen
2006 Losers - Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Dontrelle Willis, Odalis Perez
2005 Losers - Oliver Perez, Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, Zack Greinke, Eric Milton
2004 Losers - Esteban Loaiza, Barry Zito, Jose Contreras, Jamie Moyer, Javier Vazquez
2003 Losers - Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Ramon Ortiz, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe
2002 Losers - Chan Ho Park, Freddy Garcia, Bud Smith, Brad Penny, Javier Vazquez
2001 Losers - Scott Elarton, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Bartolo Colon, Dave Burba
2000 Losers - Jose Lima, Ramon Martinez, David Cone, Omar Daal, Kevin Millwood
1999 Losers - Roger Clemens, Jeff Fassero, Chan Ho Park, Tom Glavine, Brett Tomko
Relief Pitchers
MVPs - Zach Britton, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Melancon, Hector Rondon
Britton’s projection: 4-4, 0 Sv, 3.61 ERA, 1.272 WHIP, 58 K in 72 1/3 IP
Britton’s 2014 stats: 3-2, 37 Sv, 1.65 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, 62 K in 76 1/3 IP
Rodriguez’s projection: 4-3, 6 Sv, 3.36 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 67 K in 64 1/3 IP
Rodriguez’s 2014 stats: 5-5, 44 Sv, 3.04 ERA, 0.985 WHIP, 73 K in 68 IP
Melancon’s projection: 5-4, 9 Sv, 2.74 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 66 K in 69 IP
Melancon’s 2014 stats: 3-5, 33 Sv, 1.90 ERA, 0.873 WHIP, 71 K in 71 IP
Rondon’s projection: 3-2, 0 Sv, 3.76 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 49 K in 52 2/3 IP
Rondon’s 2014 stats: 4-4, 29 Sv, 2.42 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 63 K in 63 1/3 IP
These four racked up enough saves to deny super setup men Dellin Betances and Wade Davis spots in the relief MVPs. Britton and Melancon are both shaping up as long-term closers now, and Rondon could fill that niche, too, though he has Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop and perhaps Arodys Vizcaino to contend with in Chicago. My ranking of Rondon next year will hinge on whether Ramirez gets stretched out and returned to the rotation; Ramirez would be too much of a threat to Rondon’s job if left in the pen.
Honorable Mention - Dellin Betances, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Cody Allen, Sean Doolittle
2013 Winners - Koji Uehara, Kenley Jansen, Edward Mujica, Greg Holland
2012 Winners - Fernando Rodney, Jim Johnson, Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano
2011 Winners - Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas, Brandon League, Jordan Walden
2010 Winners - Neftali Feliz, John Axford, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez
2009 Winners - Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma, Ryan Franklin, Rafael Soriano
2008 Winners - Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Francisco Rodriguez
2007 Winners - Jeremy Accardo, Takashi Saito, Kevin Gregg, Manuel Corpas
2006 Winners - J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito, Akinori Otsuka
2005 Winners - Chad Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, Huston Street, Todd Jones, Bob Wickman
2004 Winners - Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jose Mesa, Shingo Takatsu
2003 Winners - Eric Gagne, Tim Worrell, Joe Borowski, Guillermo Mota
2002 Winners - Eric Gagne, Juan Acevedo, Byung-Hyun Kim, Octavio Dotel
2001 Winners - Byung-Hyun Kim, Jeff Zimmerman, Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa
2000 Winners - Keith Foulke, Robb Nen, Gabe White
1999 Winners - Scott Williamson, Billy Koch, John Rocker
LVPs - Ernesto Frieri, Jim Johnson, Grant Balfour, Sergio Romo
Frieri’s projection: 3-3, 38 Sv, 2.86 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 90 K in 66 IP
Frieri’s 2014 stats: 1-4, 11 Sv, 7.34 ERA, 1.464 WHIP, 48 K in 41 2/3 IP
Johnson’s projection: 4-5, 42 Sv, 3.09 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 47 K in 70 IP
Johnson’s 2014 stats: 5-2, 2 Sv, 7.09 ERA, 1.950 WHIP, 42 K in 53 1/3 IP
Balfour’s projection: 3-3, 35 Sv, 3.26 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 58 K in 60 2/3 IP
Balfour’s 2014 stats: 2-6, 12 Sv, 4.91 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, 57 K in 62 1/3 IP
Romo’s projection: 3-4, 33 Sv, 2.62 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 60 K in 55 IP
Romo’s 2014 stats: 6-4, 23 Sv, 3.72 ERA, 0.948 WHIP, 59 K in 58 IP
It was a pretty good year for closers overall -- at least, there was less turnover than in the previous couple of years -- but Frieri, Johnson and Balfour were awful and I had them ranked eighth, ninth and 16th at the position on Opening Day.
Dishonorable Mention - Jason Grilli, Joe Nathan, Tommy Hunter, Jose Veras
2013 Losers - John Axford, Jonathan Papelbon, Tom Wilhelmsen, Brandon League
2012 Losers - Heath Bell, Jordan Walden, Brandon League, John Axford
2011 Losers - Matt Thornton, Joakim Soria, Ryan Franklin, Neftali Feliz
2010 Losers - Chad Qualls, Jonathan Broxton, Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Jenks
2009 Losers - B.J. Ryan, Brad Lidge, Brandon Morrow, Matt Capps
2008 Losers - Jason Isringhausen, Manuel Corpas, J.J. Putz, Huston Street
2007 Losers - Tom Gordon, Salomon Torres, Jorge Julio, Bob Wickman
2006 Losers - Derrick Turnbow, Brad Lidge, Ryan Dempster, Armando Benitez
2005 Losers - Danny Kolb, Danny Graves, Guillermo Mota, Keith Foulke
2004 Losers - Arthur Rhodes, Joe Borowski, Shawn Chacon, David Riske
2003 Losers - Billy Koch, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Armando Benitez, Jose Mesa
2002 Losers - Keith Foulke, Scott Strickland, Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca
2001 Losers - Todd Jones, John Rocker, Billy Koch, Dave Veres
2000 Losers - Bob Howry, Scott Williamson, John Rocker, Billy Wagner
1999 Losers - Rod Beck, Jeff Montgomery, Rick Aguilera, Gregg Olson
Award Ballots
- Here are my MVP, Cy Young and ROY ballots for 2014:
AL MVP
1. Mike Trout
2. Michael Brantley
3. Robinson Cano
4. Victor Martinez
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Jose Altuve
7. Josh Donaldson
8. Jose Abreu
9. Adam Jones
10. Jose Bautista
Trout wasn’t quite as good this year as he was the previous two, but he’s still the AL’s best player and he’ll finally get his much deserved first MVP award, thanks to the Angels’ ascension. It’s not a particularly close race for first. Trout was third in the AL in OPS behind Martinez and Abreu, but he was actually first in OPS+, accounting for his more hostile offensive environment. And if he wasn’t as valuable defensively or on the basepaths as he was in previous years, he still obviously had much more value there than Martinez or Abreu.
Brantley is the clear No. 2 in my mind: 156 games with the AL’s seventh best OPS, plus 23 steals in 24 attempts. WAR isn’t fond of his defense, but I don’t find any fault with him in left field. It gets a whole lot more difficult to separate the candidates after that. Both versions of WAR favor Donaldson and Alex Gordon because of their defense. I’m going Cano third because he was a better hitter than both and still an above average defensive second baseman in my mind. Martinez comes in fourth despite his total lack of defensive value; it was just an awesome offensive season. Particularly nice is that he grounded into a modest 17 double plays, despite the fact that he’s slower than molasses, he was always putting the ball in play (just 42 strikeouts) and he so often had Miguel Cabrera on first base ahead of him.
Abreu’s lack of defensive value, combined with his early DL stint, drops him to eighth on my ballot, though I’m guessing he’ll finish third behind Trout and Martinez when the actual results are revealed in November.
Tough to leave off the list were Kyle Seager, Gordon and both Cy Young candidates.
AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez: 15-6, 170 H, 68 R, 56 ER, 16 HR, 248/46 K/BB in 236 IP
Corey Kluber….: 18-9, 207 H, 72 R, 64 ER, 14 HR, 269/51 K/BB in 235 2/3 IP
That’s awfully, awfully close.
FanGraphs WAR, which is based strictly on homers, strikeouts and walks, obviously favors Kluber. Baseball-reference WAR, which isn’t FIP based, also clearly prefers Kluber.
The ERA crown went to Hernandez, who finished at 2.15 after having four earned runs from his next-to-last start taken away over the weekend (it was his own error that led to the runs, and yes, it was clearly an error). Kluber finished at 2.44. Even with the extra four earned runs, Hernandez would have come in at 2.28, though he would have lost first place to Chris Sale at 2.17.
As for Sale, I’m discounting him from this discussion. He was more effective than either Felix or Kluber, but he finished 60 innings shy of both. The other two pitched 33 percent more than Sale did.
Hernandez led the AL with a 0.93 WHIP. Kluber’s was a much more pedestrian 1.09.
Kluber faced the tougher competition; his opposing batters had a .715 OPS, whereas Hernandez’s came in at .705.
In the end, I think this comes down to defense. The Mariners’ had the second best defensive efficiency in baseball, behind only Oakland. The Indians ranked 25th. That goes a long way towards explaining how Kluber gave up 37 more hits despite recording 21 more strikeouts and surrendering two fewer homers.
If you buy into that -- that the gap between Seattle’s defense and Cleveland’s defense was that huge -- then you have to give the Cy Young Award to Kluber. If you don’t, then you might prefer Hernandez. Personally, I don’t think the Mariners’ defense was quite that good -- the outfield was something of a mess until Austin Jackson arrived and Brad Miller isn’t anything special at short -- but I do believe the Indians defense was that bad and perhaps worse. For that reason, I’m throwing my support behind Kluber. It’s still close, but I think it’s the right call.
1. Kluber
2. Hernandez
3. Sale
4. Jon Lester
5. Max Scherzer
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Abreu
2. Dellin Betances
3. Collin McHugh
A year ago, I had Jose Iglesias edging 3 1/2 months of Wil Myers atop my ROY ballot. Neither of those seasons would have cracked the top five for AL rookies this year.
Just look at the starting pitching options:
Collin McHugh: 11-9, 2.73 ERA, 157/41 K/BB in 154 2/3 IP
Yordano Ventura: 14-10, 3.07 ERA, 153/68 K/BB in 179 IP
Masahiro Tanaka: 13-5, 2.77 ERA, 141/21 K/BB in 136 1/3 IP
Matt Shoemaker: 16-4, 3.04 ERA, 124/24 K/BB in 136 IP
Marcus Stroman: 11-6, 3.65 ERA, 111/28 K/BB in 130 2/3 IP
Roenis Elias: 10-12, 3.85 ERA, 143/64 K/BB in 163 2/3 IP
Jake Odorizzi: 11-13, 4.13 ERA, 174/59 K/BB in 168 IP
Only one of them can make the cut, and I’m choosing McHugh. Betances was probably the AL’s best reliever, or at least he and Wade Davis were 1 and 1a. Abreu was Abreu. Honorable mention goes to Danny Santana and Kevin Kiermaier on the offensive side. Santana hit .319 and swiped 20 bases in 405 at-bats. Kiemaier’s .263-10-35 line in 331 at-bats doesn’t look like anything special, but he played some terrific defense in right and center.
NL MVP
It’s one thing to vote for a pitcher for MVP. I have no problem doing that. But a pitcher who missed a month of the season? That makes things pretty difficult. Let’s look at the hitters first.
.952 - Andrew McCutchen: .314/.410/.542, 25 HR, 18 SB in 146 games
.950 - Giancarlo Stanton... : .288/.395/.555, 37 HR, 13 SB in 145 games
.931 - Corey Dickerson…..: .312/.364/.567, 24 HR, 8 SB in 131 games
.913 - Anthony Rizzo…….: .286/.386/.527, 32 HR, 5 SB in 140 games
.863 - Yasiel Puig………...: .296/.382/.480, 16 HR, 11 SB in 148 games
.860 - Justin Morneau…….: .319/.364/.396, 17 HR, 0 SB in 135 games
.852 - Matt Kemp………....: .287/.346/.506, 25 HR, 8 SB in 150 games
That’s everyone with an .850 OPS and 120+ games played. But let’s add in the catchers:
.893 - Devin Mesoraco: .273/.359/.534, 25 HR, 1 SB in 114 games
.848 - Buster Posey…..: .310/.363/.484, 21 HR, 0 SB in 146 games
.837 - Jonathan Lucroy: .310/.373/.465, 13 HR, 4 SB in 153 games
.832 - Russell Martin... : .290/.402/.430, 11 HR, 4 SB in 111 games
And three other guys worth considering:
.837 - Josh Harrison…..: .315/.347/.490, 13 HR, 18 SB in 143 games
.833 - Carlos Gomez….: .284/.356/.477, 23 HR, 34 SB in 148 games
.824 - Anthony Rendon: .287/.351/.473, 21 HR, 17 SB in 153 games
That’s the offensive field, in my opinion. I know Jason Heyward and Jhonny Peralta crack the top 10 in WAR because of their exceptional defensive ratings. I’m skeptical in both cases. Adrian Gonzalez led the NL in RBI and thus will be named on several ballots. He’s not one of the NL’s 20 best players, though.
Strangely, McCutchen hasn’t had the narrative on his side this year, even though he’s hit better than he did on his way to MVP honors last year. In 2013, he ranked sixth in the NL with a .911 OPS. This year, he finished first at .952. He doesn’t have big RBI numbers, but then, he didn’t finish in the top 10 in the NL in RBI last year, either. This year, he probably would have had he not missed 16 games. As is, he finished 13th.
Instead, the narrative belonged to Stanton until he was drilled in the head by a Mike Fiers pitch, costing him the final two weeks. Had Stanton ended up playing 15 more games than McCutchen, perhaps one could justify giving him the nod. However, in the end, they both had the same OPS in the same amount of playing time. McCutchen is the more valuable defender and had the better OBP, making the best argument for Stanton being that he played in a gigantic cavern of a ballpark. However, McCutchen’s home in Pittsburgh is just as tough of a home run park for right-handed hitters and has been a worse park for run scoring overall. Advantage McCutchen.
So, that leaves me McCutchen versus the catchers. I favor Lucroy as the best of the bunch. I think he’s the better defender than Posey, and he caught an extra 24 games (Lucroy started 133 games at catcher and 16 at first, Posey started 109 games at catcher and 30 at first). That makes up for Posey’s advantage offensively (though it is greater than OPS suggests, considering the difference in ballparks). Martin was terrific defensively and one of the very few players this year to post a .400 OBP, but missing 50 games makes him a bottom-of-the-ballot option at best.
For what it’s worth, Baseball-reference WAR has Lucroy at 6.6 wins, followed by McCutchen, Stanton and Rendon all at 6.5. That’s a wash. FanGraphs WAR has McCutchen at 6.9, Rendon at 6.6, Lucroy at 6.3 and Stanton at 6.1.
With all due respect to Rendon (it was a terrific season, but it’s still an .824 OPS from a guy who played third base the vast majority of the time), McCutchen and Lucroy are my favorite candidates: the best hitter versus an excellent hitter and excellent defensive catcher. Lucroy ended up eighth in the NL in OBP and 10th in OPS. He hit 53 doubles. He played in seven more games than McCutchen despite doing all of that catching. Only Miguel Montero, at 130 games, rivaled Lucroy in workload behind the plate. No one else started more than 110 games.
And then there’s Clayton Kershaw. Despite not pitching in April, he lapped the field in rWAR, coming in at 8.0. fWAR was closer, as he finished at 7.2 to 6.9 for McCutchen. Kershaw’s 1.77 ERA is historic. He won 21 of his 27 starts, with a 239/31 K/BB ratio and just nine homers allowed in 198 1/3 innings.
I still don’t like declaring a sub-200 inning starter as the MVP, but whether I like it or not, the numbers back it up. And it’s not as if luck factored into Kershaw’s performance; he was simply that dominant. I can’t bypass him.
1. Kershaw
2. McCutchen
3. Lucroy
4. Stanton
5. Posey
6. Rendon
7. Rizzo
8. Gomez
9. Harrison
10. Martin
NL Cy Young
After Kershaw, both Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright ended up with identical 20-9 records. Cueto edged Wainwright for second place in ERA, 2.25 to 2.38. Cueto also struck out 242 batters in 243 2/3 innings, compared to 179 in 227 innings for Wainwright. FIP will say Cueto was lucky to give up so few hits, but Cueto has always been that “lucky.” He’s No. 2 for me.
I’m not sure Jordan Zimmermann would have taken fourth on my ballot prior to Sunday’s no-hitter, but he might have. Afterwards, it was an easy call. That leaves the last spot for either Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels. Hamels beat Greinke in ERA 2.46 to 2.71. They threw the same number of innings. Greinke had an extra nine strikeouts and 16 fewer walks, but he gave up five more homers. Greinke also allowed an extra four unearned runs. Hamels gets the nod.
1. Kershaw
2. Cueto
3. Wainwright
4. Zimmermann
5. Hamels
NL Rookie of the Year
The American League got most of this year’s rookie talent, much like the NL’s big advantage with the Puig-Jose Fernandez class last year.
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Ken Giles
This was Hamilton’s award to lose all year long, but he gave it away by hitting .200/.254/.257 after the All-Star break. DeGrom made just 22 starts, but he was terrific in them, posting a 2.69 ERA and striking out 144 in 140 1/3 innings.
The third spot goes to either Giles or Arizona’s Ender Inciarte, a superb defender who hit .278/.318/.359 in 418 at-bats while playing center and left. Giles, meanwhile, did a nice Dellin Betances impression once he got his chance, finishing with a 1.18 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings.
Previous selections
AL MVP
2000: Pedro Martinez
2001: Jason Giambi
2002: Alex Rodriguez
2003: Alex Rodriguez
2004: Vladimir Guerrero
2005: Alex Rodriguez
2006: Derek Jeter
2007: Alex Rodriguez
2008: Dustin Pedroia
2009: Joe Mauer
2010: Josh Hamilton
2011: Justin Verlander
2012: Mike Trout
2013: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young
2000: Pedro Martinez
2001: Mark Mulder
2002: Pedro Martinez
2003: Pedro Martinez
2004: Johan Santana
2005: Johan Santana
2006: Johan Santana
2007: CC Sabathia
2008: Roy Halladay
2009: Zack Greinke
2010: Felix Hernandez
2011: Justin Verlander
2012: Justin Verlander
2013: Max Scherzer
AL Rookie of the Year
2000: Terrence Long
2001: Ichiro Suzuki
2002: Eric Hinske
2003: Angel Berroa
2004: Bobby Crosby
2005: Huston Street
2006: Justin Verlander
2007: Dustin Pedroia
2008: Evan Longoria
2009: Andrew Bailey
2010: Neftali Feliz
2011: Jeremy Hellickson
2012: Mike Trout
2013: Jose Iglesias
NL MVP
2000: Barry Bonds
2001: Barry Bonds
2002: Barry Bonds
2003: Barry Bonds
2004: Barry Bonds
2005: Derrek Lee
2006: Albert Pujols
2007: Jake Peavy
2008: Albert Pujols
2009: Albert Pujols
2010: Joey Votto
2011: Matt Kemp
2012: Yadier Molina
2013: Andrew McCutchen
NL Cy Young
2000: Randy Johnson
2001: Randy Johnson
2002: Randy Johnson
2003: Mark Prior
2004: Randy Johnson
2005: Roger Clemens
2006: Brandon Webb
2007: Jake Peavy
2008: Tim Lincecum
2009: Adam Wainwright
2010: Roy Halladay
2011: Roy Halladay
2012: Clayton Kershaw
2013: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year
2000: Rick Ankiel
2001: Albert Pujols
2002: Austin Kearns
2003: Brandon Webb
2004: Khalil Greene
2005: Ryan Howard
2006: Hanley Ramirez
2007: Troy Tulowitzki
2008: Geovany Soto
2009: J.A. Happ
2010: Jason Heyward
2011: Craig Kimbrel
2012: Bryce Harper
2013: Jose Fernandez
