Fantasy MVPs & LVPs
It's the 17th annual edition of the fantasy MVPs and LVPs column. Awards are given to players that most over- or underperformed my preseason projections. So, basically, everyone I was most wrong about. I do, however, give injured players a break when it comes to LVPs
I also have my real MVP/Cy Young/ROY choices below.
The Fantasy Most Valuable Players
Catchers
MVP - Nick Hundley
Projection: .248/.298/.416, 11 HR, 35 R, 44 RBI, 1 SB in 310 AB
2015 stats: .301/.339/.467, 10 HR, 45 R, 43 RBI, 5 SB in 366 AB
Really, you can just take your pick here. Hundley, A.J. Pierzynski and Francisco Cervelli all finished as top-10 catchers when no one expected it of them, but none of them really racked up big power numbers. This was supposed to be Stephen Vogt’s spot a couple of months ago, but while he was still a candidate, he got banged up and his numbers really dropped off. The truth is that unless you were a Buster Posey owner, you probably spent parts of the season wondering if you needed to improve your catcher production. I’m giving the nod to Hundley, since he put up his numbers in five months, rather than six.
Honorable Mention - A.J. Pierzynski, Francisco Cervelli, Stephen Vogt
2014 Winner - Devin Mesoraco
2013 Winner - Jonathan Lucroy
2012 Winner - Wilin Rosario
2011 Winner - Alex Avila
2010 Winner - Buster Posey
2009 Winner - Joe Mauer
2008 Winner - Ryan Doumit
2007 Winner - Russell Martin
2006 Winner - Brian McCann
2005 Winner - Brandon Inge
2004 Winner - Craig Wilson
2003 Winner - Javy Lopez
2002 Winner - Eli Marrero
2001 Winner - Paul Lo Duca
2000 Winner - Charles Johnson
1999 Winner - Mike Sweeney
LVP - Jonathan Lucroy
Projection: .286/.350/.445, 16 HR, 76 R, 70 RBI, 4 SB in 528 AB
2015 stats: .264/.326/.391, 7 HR, 51 R, 43 RBI, 1 SB in 371 AB
Lucroy dealt with a broken toe early on and a concussion late, but he still spent 4 1/2 months of the season on the Brewers’ active roster without doing much of anything to help fantasy leaguers. He went from collecting 68 extra-base hits in 153 games in 2014 to 30 in 103 games this year.
Dishonorable Mention - Yan Gomes, Mike Zunino, Devin Mesoraco
2014 LVP - Joe Mauer
2013 LVP - Jesus Montero
2012 LVP - Carlos Santana
2011 LVP - Joe Mauer
2010 LVP - Matt Wieters
2009 LVP - Russell Martin
2008 LVP - Kenji Johjima
2007 LVP - Ramon Hernandez
2006 LVP - Javy Lopez
2005 LVP - Jason Kendall
2004 LVP - Mike Piazza
2003 LVP - Paul Lo Duca
2002 LVP - Charles Johnson
2001 LVP - Jason Kendall
2000 LVP - Michael Barrett
1999 LVP - Todd Hundley
First Basemen/Designated Hitters
MVP - Joey Votto
Projection: .291/.430/.470, 20 HR, 85 R, 77 RBI, 2 SB in 532 AB
2015 stats: .314/.459/.541, 29 HR, 95 R, 80 RBI, 11 SB in 545 AB
Votto can hardly be blamed for the modest RBI total this year; he slugged .593 with runners on and .509 with runners in scoring position. It’s just too bad his season was wasted on such a dreary Reds team.
Honorable Mention - Paul Goldschmidt, Kendrys Morales, Mark Teixeira
2014 Winner - Victor Martinez
2013 Winner - Chris Davis
2012 Winner - Adam LaRoche
2011 Winner - Mark Trumbo
2010 Winner - Joey Votto
2009 Winner - Kendrys Morales
2008 Winner - Aubrey Huff
2007 Winner - Carlos Pena
2006 Winner - Ryan Howard
2005 Winner - Derrek Lee
2004 Winner - Travis Hafner
2003 Winner - Carlos Delgado
2002 Winner - Derrek Lee
2001 Winner - Ryan Klesko
2000 Winner - Frank Thomas
1999 Winner - John Jaha
LVP - Chris Carter
Projection: .232/.321/.473, 33 HR, 76 R, 100 RBI, 3 SB in 535 AB
2015 stats: .199/.307/.427, 24 HR, 50 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB in 391 AB
Carter hit .341/.396/.841 during the final 30 days of the season and still couldn’t get above the Mendoza Line. That’s because he had just 44 at-bats over those 30 days, as the Astros had pretty much given up on him a month earlier. They will have to decide this winter whether it’s worth paying Carter $5 million or so to come back to come back and compete for the starting job at first base. If they move on, someone else will want his power.
Dishonorable Mention - Adam LaRoche, Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera
2014 LVP - Chris Davis
2013 LVP - Ike Davis
2012 LVP - Eric Hosmer
2011 LVP - Adam Dunn
2010 LVP - Lance Berkman
2009 LVP - David Ortiz
2008 LVP - Travis Hafner
2007 LVP - Richie Sexson
2006 LVP - Todd Helton
2005 LVP - Todd Helton
2004 LVP - Jason Giambi
2003 LVP - Paul Konerko
2002 LVP - Tony Clark
2001 LVP - Mark McGwire
2000 LVP - Sean Casey
1999 LVP - Darin Erstad
Second Basemen
MVP - Dee Gordon
Projection: .271/.315/.357, 1 HR, 87 R, 37 RBI, 61 SB in 652 AB
2015 stats: .333/.359/.418, 4 HR, 88 R, 46 RBI, 58 SB in 615 AB
Gordon was so lousy in the second half of 2014 that the Dodgers were convinced Howie Kendrick would be a major upgrade. That’s not how it worked out, though Kendrick was just fine before getting hurt. I certainly never thought that Gordon would hit so well, though he was my No. 3 second baseman anyway.
Honorable Mention - D.J. LeMahieu, Matt Duffy, Ian Kinsler, Logan Forsythe
2014 Winner - Jose Altuve
2013 Winner - Matt Carpenter
2012 Winner - Aaron Hill
2011 Winner - Ben Zobrist
2010 Winner - Rickie Weeks
2009 Winner - Aaron Hill
2008 Winner - Dustin Pedroia
2007 Winner - Brandon Phillips
2006 Winner - Dan Uggla
2005 Winner - Chone Figgins
2004 Winner - Mark Loretta
2003 Winner - Marcus Giles
2002 Winner - Alfonso Soriano
2001 Winner - Bret Boone
2000 Winner - Jose Vidro
1999 Winner - Roberto Alomar
LVP - Chase Utley
Projection: .262/.351/.417, 14 HR, 65 R, 62 RBI, 8 SB in 470 AB
2015 stats: .212/.286/.343, 8 HR, 37 R, 39 RBI, 4 SB in 373 AB
Robinson Cano and Anthony Rendon might have been bigger disappointments to those who drafted them early, but they both had pretty good excuses, given their physical problems. Utley just couldn’t keep it together, and though he was dealing with ailments of his own, he brought down his teams in a big way before probably getting released in most leagues.
Dishonorable Mention - Arismendy Alcantara, Robinson Cano, Anthony Rendon
2014 LVP - Jason Kipnis
2013 LVP - Rickie Weeks
2012 LVP - Jemile Weeks
2011 LVP - Chone Figgins
2010 LVP - Aaron Hill
2009 LVP - Kelly Johnson
2008 LVP - Robinson Cano
2007 LVP - Josh Barfield
2006 LVP - Jorge Cantu
2005 LVP - Bret Boone
2004 LVP - Alfonso Soriano
2003 LVP - Roberto Alomar
2002 LVP - Roberto Alomar
2001 LVP - Edgardo Alfonzo
2000 LVP - Jose Offerman
1999 LVP - Delino DeShields
Third Basemen
MVP - Josh Donaldson
Projection: .257/.350/.487, 31 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 6 SB in 556 AB
2015 stats: .297/.371/.568, 41 HR, 122 R, 123 RBI, 6 SB in 620 AB
Third base was the position of the year in 2015, and there are several other worthy MVP options here. Donaldson, though, gets the close decision over Machado, who I made the mistake of dropping to ninth in my preseason rankings after the Orioles’ late decision to hit him low in the order rather than second (obviously, that didn’t last). Nolan Arenado might be here under other circumstances, but I had him first ahead of Donaldson in the preseason.
Honorable Mention - Manny Machado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado
2014 Winner - Todd Frazier
2013 Winner - Josh Donaldson
2012 Winner - Chase Headley
2011 Winner - Jose Bautista
2010 Winner - Jose Bautista
2009 Winner - Mark Reynolds
2008 Winner - Jorge Cantu
2007 Winner - Ryan Braun
2006 Winner - Michael Cuddyer
2005 Winner - Morgan Ensberg
2004 Winner - Adrian Beltre
2003 Winner - Bill Mueller
2002 Winner - Aaron Boone
2001 Winner - Albert Pujols
2000 Winner - Troy Glaus
1999 Winner - Fernando Tatis
LVP - Carlos Santana
Projection: .265/.385/.464, 25 HR, 80 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 550 AB
2015 stats: .231/.357/.395, 19 HR, 72 R, 85 RBI, 11 SB in 550 AB
Santana could have been a stud this year; he had more plate appearances with runners on than anyone else in the majors and he surprised by going crazy on the basepaths with his 11 steals. He just didn’t hit, and there was never any good reason for it.
Dishonorable Mention - Pablo Sandoval, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria
2014 LVP - David Wright
2013 LVP - Pablo Sandoval
2012 LVP - Mark Reynolds
2011 LVP - Pedro Alvarez
2010 LVP - Pablo Sandoval
2009 LVP - Garrett Atkins
2008 LVP - Chone Figgins
2007 LVP - Eric Chavez
2006 LVP - Hank Blalock
2005 LVP - Adrian Beltre
2004 LVP - Eric Hinske
2003 LVP - Edgardo Alfonzo
2002 LVP - Jeff Cirillo
2001 LVP - Tony Batista
2000 LVP - Vinny Castilla
1999 LVP - Ken Caminiti
Shortstops
MVP - Xander Bogaerts
Projection: .270/.341/.429, 16 HR, 72 R, 70 RBI, 4 SB in 529 AB
2015 stats: .320/.355/.421, 7 HR, 84 R, 81 RBI, 10 SB in 613 AB
Bogaerts beat my batting average projection by 50 points, yet nearly matched the predicted OPS (.770 projected, .776 actual). The power still figures to come, and now that he’s established himself in the top half of Boston’s order, he’ll enter next year much higher in the shortstop rankings (if not so high as Carlos Correa).
Honorable Mention - Yunel Escobar, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor
2014 Winner - Dee Gordon
2013 Winner - Jean Segura
2012 Winner - Ian Desmond
2011 Winner - Asdrubal Cabrera
2010 Winner - Omar Infante
2009 Winner - Ben Zobrist
2008 Winner - Mike Aviles
2007 Winner - Hanley Ramirez
2006 Winner - Hanley Ramirez
2005 Winner - Felipe Lopez
2004 Winner - Carlos Guillen
2003 Winner - Edgar Renteria
2002 Winner - David Eckstein
2001 Winner - Rich Aurilia
2000 Winner - Jose Valentin
1999 Winner - Jay Bell
LVP - Hanley Ramirez
Projection: .291/.358/.503, 23 HR, 83 R, 91 RBI, 11 SB in 519 AB
2015 stats: .249/.291/.426, 19 HR, 59 R, 53 RBI, 6 SB in 401 AB
Boston’s other “shortstop” had two homers on Opening Day and 10 in 22 games in April. He then collected nine more over the rest of the season, none of them coming in the second half. It’s anyone’s guess if he’ll be back with the Red Sox in 2016, even though he’s owed $66 million through 2018.
Dishonorable Mention - Danny Santana, Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond
2014 LVP - Jean Segura
2013 LVP - Starlin Castro
2012 LVP - Elvis Andrus
2011 LVP - Hanley Ramirez
2010 LVP - Yunel Escobar
2009 LVP - Jimmy Rollins
2008 LVP - Troy Tulowitzki
2007 LVP - Bill Hall
2006 LVP - Clint Barmes
2005 LVP - Kaz Matsui
2004 LVP - Angel Berroa
2003 LVP - Jose Hernandez
2002 LVP - Rich Aurilia
2001 LVP - Tony Womack
2000 LVP - Royce Clayton
1999 LVP - Royce Clayton
Outfielders
MVPs - A.J. Pollock, Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon
Pollock’s projection: .275/.332/.433, 13 HR, 80 R, 58 RBI, 21 SB in 559 AB
Pollock’s 2015 stats: .315/.367/.498, 20 HR, 111 R, 76 RBI, 39 SB in 609 AB
Harper’s projection: .285/.358/.513, 27 HR, 84 R, 96 RBI, 12 SB in 526 AB
Harper’s 2015 stats: .330/.460/.649, 42 HR, 118 R, 99 RBI, 6 SB in 521 AB
Blackmon’s projection: .278/.329/.421, 11 HR, 73 R, 51 RBI, 18 SB in 468 AB
Blackmon’s 2015 stats: .287/.347/.450, 17 HR, 93 R, 58 RBI, 43 SB in 614 AB
Pollock sat out the Diamondbacks’ second game of the season. And the seventh. And the 12th. And six more in the first quarter of the season before the team figured out that, well, maybe he should be an everyday guy. … I gave Harper a worse projection this year than in the previous two years, not because I doubted the talent but because I didn’t think he could be trusted to stay completely healthy. I continue to worry about the durability issues, but when he did get banged up this year, he didn’t let it affect his play. … I still think the Rockies would have been better off playing Drew Stubbs over Blackmon against left-handers, but there’s no arguing against Blackmon’s fantasy numbers.
Honorable Mention - Lorenzo Cain, Nelson Cruz, Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Martinez
2014 Winners - Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson
2013 Winners - Carlos Gomez, Yasiel Puig, Marlon Byrd
2012 Winners - Mike Trout, Alex Rios, Adam Jones
2011 Winners - Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera
2010 Winners - Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Angel Pagan
2009 Winners - Adam Lind, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp
2008 Winners - Ryan Ludwick, Josh Hamilton, Nate McLouth
2007 Winners - Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Eric Byrnes
2006 Winners - Jermaine Dye, Gary Matthews Jr., Matt Holliday
2005 Winners - Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Andruw Jones
2004 Winners - Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Aaron Rowand, Jeromy Burnitz
2003 Winners - Gary Sheffield, Scott Podsednik, Vernon Wells
2002 Winners - Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson
2001 Winners - Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Bonds, Cliff Floyd
2000 Winners - Darin Erstad, Richard Hidalgo, John Vander Wal
1999 Winners - Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, Roger Cedeno
LVPs - Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo
Gomez’s projection: .268/.326/.458, 24 HR, 98 R, 75 RBI, 32 SB in 598 AB
Gomez’s 2015 stats: .255/.314/.409, 12 HR, 61 R, 56 RBI, 17 SB in 435 AB
Jones’s projection: .275/.312/.465, 28 HR, 89 R, 102 RBI, 9 SB in 622 AB
Jones’s 2015 stats: .269/.308/.474, 27 HR, 74 R, 82 RBI, 3 SB in 546 AB
Trumbo’s projection: .254/.312/.489, 33 HR, 77 R, 105 RBI. 5 SB in 558 AB
Trumbo’s 2015 stats: .262/.310/.449, 22 HR, 62 R, 64 RBI, 0 SB in 508 AB
Gomez’s struggles were injury-related, but he still played 115 games without ever resembling a fantasy force. … Jones was pretty much what he was supposed to be, but the runs and RBI weren’t there this year. That’s why I never understood taking him as a first-round pick in mixed leagues; he wasn’t a strong enough bet in average, homers or steals to justify it. … It seemed like a given that Trumbo would be traded this year. Unfortunately, it was to Seattle. He might have gotten his 30 homers somewhere else (he had nine in 46 games for the Diamondbacks).
Dishonorable Mention - Billy Hamilton, Yasiel Puig, Jacoby Ellsbury, Leonys Martin
2014 LVPs - Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Ryan Braun
2013 LVPs - Ryan Braun, B.J. Upton, Jason Heyward
2012 LVPs - Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Delmon Young
2011 LVPs - Carl Crawford, Alex Rios, Jason Heyward
2010 LVPs - Matt Kemp, Adam Lind, Carlos Lee
2009 LVPs - Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Alfonso Soriano
2008 LVPs - Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Carl Crawford
2007 LVPs - Jason Bay, Andruw Jones, Jermaine Dye
2006 LVPs - Jason Lane, Randy Winn, Scott Podsednik
2005 LVPs - Carlos Beltran, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson
2004 LVPs - Sammy Sosa, Marlon Byrd, Brian Giles
2003 LVPs - Pat Burrell, Shawn Green, Larry Walker
2002 LVPs - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Pierre, Richard Hidalgo
2001 LVPs - Richard Hidalgo, Darin Erstad, Carl Everett
2000 LVPs - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran
1999 LVPs - Jose Cruz Jr., Kenny Lofton, Ray Lankford
Starting Pitchers
MVPs - Jake Arrieta, Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, Marco Estrada, Jacob deGrom
Arrieta’s projection: 13-9, 3.36 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 179 K in 190 IP
Arrieta’s 2015 stats: 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 236 K in 229 IP
Keuchel’s projection: 15-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 149 K in 210 2/3 IP
Keuchel’s 2015 stats: 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 216 K in 232 IP
Greinke’s projection: 16-8, 2.92 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 192 K in 200 1/3 IP
Greinke’s 2015 stats: 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.844 WHIP, 200 K in 222 2/3 IP
Estrada’s projection: 7-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 111 K in 131 IP
Estrada’s 2015 stats: 13-8, 3.13 ERA, 1.044 WHIP, 131 K in 181 IP
DeGrom’s projection: 14-9, 3.02 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 196 K in 198 2/3 IP
DeGrom’s 2015 stats: 14-8, 2.54 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 205 K in 191 IP
Arrieta makes the list for the second year in a row, this time in the top spot. I was rather worried about him from a health perspective going into the year. Since he’s thrown 229 innings, with a wild-card start and perhaps more postseason to go, I’ll carry those concerns into 2016. … I had Keuchel as a deep sleeper going into 2014, and he blew away my expectations. I backed him again going into this year, and he blew away my expectations once more. 216 strikeouts??? … Estrada, who opened up in middle relief for the Jays, was the only really big surprise among the top 20 fantasy starters this year, but what a surprise he was. He went from giving up 29 homers in 151 innings in the NL Central with the Brewers in 2014 to 24 homers in 181 innings in the AL East this year.
Honorable Mention - Chris Archer, John Lackey, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Martinez, Noah Syndergaard
2014 Winners - Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards, Johnny Cueto, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark
2013 Winners - Hisashi Iwakuma, Max Scherzer, Jose Fernandez, Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey
2012 Winners - R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Chris Sale
2011 Winners - Justin Verlander, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw, Doug Fister
2010 Winners - Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver
2009 Winners - Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Wandy Rodriguez, Joel Pineiro
2008 Winners - Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana, Roy Halladay
2007 Winners - Fausto Carmona, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, James Shields, Erik Bedard
2006 Winners - Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Harang, Justin Verlander
2005 Winners - Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee, John Patterson
2004 Winners - Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano, Oliver Perez, Chris Carpenter
2003 Winners - Esteban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Livan Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay
2002 Winners - Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, Roy Halladay
2001 Winners - Mark Mulder, Joe Mays, John Burkett, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt
2000 Winners - Ryan Dempster, Jeff D’Amico, Glendon Rusch, Darryl Kile, Chan Ho Park
1999 Winners - Mike Hampton, Todd Ritchie, Tim Hudson, Kevin Millwood, Jose Lima
LVPs - Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Felix Hernandez, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister
Teheran’s projection: 13-12, 3.16 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 184 K in 213 2/3 IP
Teheran’s 2015 stats: 11-8, 4.04 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 171 K in 200 2/3 IP
Wood’s projection: 12-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 172 K in 184 1/3 IP
Wood’s 2015 stats: 12-12, 3.84 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 139 K in 189 2/3 IP
Hernandez’s projection: 17-8, 2.69 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 219 K in 221 IP
Hernandez’s 2015 stats: 18-9, 3.53 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 191 K in 201 2/3 IP
Gonzalez’s projection: 14-9, 3.21 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 169 K in 196 1/3 IP
Gonzalez’s 2015 stats: 11-8, 3.79 ERA, 1.423 WHIP, 169 K in 175 2/3 IP
Fister’s projection: 15-9, 3.15 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 148 K in 200 IP
Fister’s 2015 stats: 5-7, 1 Sv, 4.19 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 63K in 103 IP
For the most part, the guys who were supposed to pitch well did just that this year. Even this group wasn’t exactly terrible; Hernandez excepted, they just didn’t help fantasy leaguers at all. Blame diminished stuff in the cases of Wood and Fister. I’m still not sure what happened to Teheran, but he better get the curve back if he’s going to rebound next year. Hernandez needs improved defense, and he’ll probably get it with Brad Miller moved off short and superior play in the outfield next year.
Dishonorable Mention - James Shields, Stephen Strasburg, Andrew Cashner, Michael Pineda
2014 LVPs - Justin Verlander, Mike Minor, Clay Buchholz, C.J. Wilson, Justin Masterson
2013 LVPs - CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson
2012 LVPs - Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Jon Lester, Dan Haren
2011 LVPs - Brian Matusz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Ricky Nolasco, Chad Billingsley
2010 LVPs - Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez, A.J. Burnett
2009 LVPs - Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Joba Chamberlain, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka
2008 LVPs - Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, Rich Hill
2007 LVPs - Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Mussina, Dontrelle Willis, Jose Contreras, Scott Olsen
2006 LVPs - Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Dontrelle Willis, Odalis Perez
2005 LVPs - Oliver Perez, Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, Zack Greinke, Eric Milton
2004 LVPs - Esteban Loaiza, Barry Zito, Jose Contreras, Jamie Moyer, Javier Vazquez
2003 LVPs - Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Ramon Ortiz, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe
2002 LVPs - Chan Ho Park, Freddy Garcia, Bud Smith, Brad Penny, Javier Vazquez
2001 LVPs - Scott Elarton, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Bartolo Colon, Dave Burba
2000 LVPs - Jose Lima, Ramon Martinez, David Cone, Omar Daal, Kevin Millwood
1999 LVPs - Roger Clemens, Jeff Fassero, Chan Ho Park, Tom Glavine, Brett Tomko
Relief Pitchers
MVPs - Jeurys Familia, Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, Shawn Tolleson
Familia’s projection: 5-4, 2 Sv, 3.00 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 70 K in 72 IP
Familia’s 2015 stats: 2-2, 43 Sv, 1.85 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 86 K in 78 IP
Miller’s projection: 5-3, 15 Sv, 2.54 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 95 K in 63 2/3 IP
Miller’s 2015 stats: 3-2, 36 Sv, 3.04 ERA, 0.859 WHIP, 100 K in 62 1/3 IP
Davis’s projection: 5-3, 3 Sv, 1.90 ERA, 0.995 WHIP, 93 K in 66 1/3 IP
Davis’s 2015 stats: 8-1, 17 Sv, 0.94 ERA, 0.787 WHIP, 78 K in 67 1/3 IP
Tolleson’s projection: 4-3, 1 Sv, 3.50 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 61 K in 61 2/3 IP
Tolleson’s 2015 stats: 6-4, 35 Sv, 2.99 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 76 K in 72 1/3 IP
Remember when Bobby Parnell was the alternative to Jenrry Mejia for saves in Queens? … I guessed wrong on Miller versus Dellin Betances. It would have worked out fine either way for the Yankees, though using Betances as a setup man allowed them to maximize his innings again (whether that works out in the long run remains to be seen). … I need to check in on that person who called me an idiot for suggesting Tolleson, not Neftali Feliz, should close for the Rangers after Joakim Soria was traded in July 2014.
Honorable Mention - A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, Brad Boxberger, Roberto Osuna
2014 Winners - Zach Britton, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Melancon, Hector Rondon
2013 Winners - Koji Uehara, Kenley Jansen, Edward Mujica, Greg Holland
2012 Winners - Fernando Rodney, Jim Johnson, Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano
2011 Winners - Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas, Brandon League, Jordan Walden
2010 Winners - Neftali Feliz, John Axford, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez
2009 Winners - Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma, Ryan Franklin, Rafael Soriano
2008 Winners - Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Francisco Rodriguez
2007 Winners - Jeremy Accardo, Takashi Saito, Kevin Gregg, Manuel Corpas
2006 Winners - J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito, Akinori Otsuka
2005 Winners - Chad Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, Huston Street, Todd Jones, Bob Wickman
2004 Winners - Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jose Mesa, Shingo Takatsu
2003 Winners - Eric Gagne, Tim Worrell, Joe Borowski, Guillermo Mota
2002 Winners - Eric Gagne, Juan Acevedo, Byung-Hyun Kim, Octavio Dotel
2001 Winners - Byung-Hyun Kim, Jeff Zimmerman, Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa
2000 Winners - Keith Foulke, Robb Nen, Gabe White
1999 Winners - Scott Williamson, Billy Koch, John Rocker
LVPs - Jenrry Mejia, Steve Cishek, Greg Holland, Fernando Rodney
Mejia’s projection: 4-4, 33 Sv, 2.87 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 70 K in 62 2/3 IP
Mejia’s 2015 stats: 1-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, 7 K in 7 1/3 IP
Cishek’s projection: 3-4, 36 Sv, 2.71 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 72 K in 66 1/3 IP
Cishek’s 2015 stats: 2-6, 4 Sv, 3.58 ERA, 1.481 WHIP, 48 K in 55 1/3 IP
Holland’s projection: 3-3, 44 Sv, 1.84 ERA, 0.990 WHIP, 86 K in 63 2/3 IP
Holland’s 2015 stats: 3-2, 32 Sv, 3.83 ERA, 1.455 WHIP, 49 K in 44 2/3 IP
Rodney’s projection: 3-4, 38 Sv, 3.20 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 69 K in 64 2/3 IP
Rodney’s 2015 stats: 7-5, 16 Sv, 4.74 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 58 K in 62 2/3 IP
I could have just listed Mejia four times here. … While his peripherals weren’t as strong as in the past, Cishek had a 1.67 ERA over 43 innings after the Marlins bailed on him as a closer. The Cardinals are benefiting from that now. … Holland was really pretty good for someone pitching with a blown out elbow.
Dishonorable Mention - Jake McGee, Neftali Feliz, Addison Reed
2014 LVPs - Ernesto Frieri, Jim Johnson, Grant Balfour, Sergio Romo
2013 LVPs - John Axford, Jonathan Papelbon, Tom Wilhelmsen, Brandon League
2012 LVPs - Heath Bell, Jordan Walden, Brandon League, John Axford
2011 LVPs - Matt Thornton, Joakim Soria, Ryan Franklin, Neftali Feliz
2010 LVPs - Chad Qualls, Jonathan Broxton, Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Jenks
2009 LVPs - B.J. Ryan, Brad Lidge, Brandon Morrow, Matt Capps
2008 LVPs - Jason Isringhausen, Manuel Corpas, J.J. Putz, Huston Street
2007 LVPs - Tom Gordon, Salomon Torres, Jorge Julio, Bob Wickman
2006 LVPs - Derrick Turnbow, Brad Lidge, Ryan Dempster, Armando Benitez
2005 LVPs - Danny Kolb, Danny Graves, Guillermo Mota, Keith Foulke
2004 LVPs - Arthur Rhodes, Joe Borowski, Shawn Chacon, David Riske
2003 LVPs - Billy Koch, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Armando Benitez, Jose Mesa
2002 LVPs - Keith Foulke, Scott Strickland, Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca
2001 LVPs - Todd Jones, John Rocker, Billy Koch, Dave Veres
2000 LVPs - Bob Howry, Scott Williamson, John Rocker, Billy Wagner
1999 LVPs - Rod Beck, Jeff Montgomery, Rick Aguilera, Gregg Olson
Award Ballots
Here are my MVP, Cy Young and ROY ballots for 2015:
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Francisco Lindor
2. Carlos Correa
3. Miguel Sano
Correa appeared to have this locked up within a month of debuting, but then something funny happened; Lindor went from hitting .211/258/.281 in 15 games in May to .295/.324/.448 in June to .353/.395/.558 over the final two months, all while playing the best shortstop of anyone in the AL. Correa didn’t do anything to lose the award, but when all was said and done, Lindor outplayed him. Whether the actual voters will recognize that is anyone’s guess. I suspect Correa will wind up with the award anyway.
Honorable mentions go to Lance McCullers Jr., Carlos Rodon, Billy Burns, Eddie Rosario, James McCann, Devon Travis, Delino DeShields Jr., Roberto Osuna, Carson Smith and Trevor May. It was quite an embarrassment of riches.
AL Cy Young
1. Dallas Keuchel
2. David Price
3. Chris Sale
4. Sonny Gray
5. Dellin Betances
Keuchel and Price are very close by any measure:
Keuchel: 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 68 R, 17 HR, 216/51 K/BB in 232 IP
Price: 18-5, 2.45 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 70 R, 17 HR, 225/47 K/BB in 220 1/3 IP
Despite the reputation, Houston’s ballpark isn’t the bandbox that some seem to think, and I’d say the battle is pretty much a wash from a pitching environment standpoint. Price faced 11 postseason teams to eight for Keuchel. Keuchel ended up allowed two fewer runs and throwing 11 2/3 more innings on the year. The Astros went 23-10 in Keuchel’s starts, while Price’s teams went 24-8. The Astros won every time they scored at least four runs in a game started by Keuchel. Price’s team lost twice in such circumstances, though one of those was on the pen.
I’m not sure you can go wrong either way here. Maybe they’ll finish tied and split the award (probably not).
AL MVP
1. Mike Trout
2. Josh Donaldson
3. Lorenzo Cain
4. Manny Machado
5. Dallas Keuchel
6. Nelson Cruz
7. David Price
8. Jose Bautista
9. Mookie Betts
10. Adrian Beltre
Donaldson will win, and it’ll be a landslide. I won’t even have much of a problem with it; he certainly had an MVP-quality season. I just think Trout was a little better, once one factors in that he’s playing half of his games in a pitcher’s park and Donaldson gets to work in a hitter’s park. Unlike the old Trout-Miguel Cabrera debates, there isn’t really any defense and baserunning to separate Trout and Donaldson. I’d say Donaldson is a little better at third than Trout is in center, but center is the slightly more valuable position. Playing time also isn’t a factor; Trout played in 159 games, Donaldson 158.
When it comes to offense, Trout, by virtue of his outstanding September, has an obvious edge in the percentages. He bested Donaldson in OBP (.402-.371) and slugging (.590-.568). The OBP margin is actually pretty insignificant after factoring in that Trout received 14 intentional walks and Donaldson never got a one. But, again, Trout was playing in Anaheim, Donaldson in Toronto. Baseball-reference gives Trout a 175 OPS+ and Donaldson a 156. Weighted runs created plus (wRC+) puts Trout at 171 and Donaldson at 156.
Of course, Donaldson smoked Trout in runs and especially in RBI. Those numbers just reflect opportunity, though. Trout hit .352/.508/.693 in 88 AB with RISP. Donaldson hit .353/.440/.618 in 136 AB with RISP. I’m pretty sure Trout would have driven in at least 120 runs in Toronto, too.
Anyway, I support Trout. It’s not a huge margin, though. And it won’t be much of a crime when Donaldson finishes first.
Cain and Machado are the clear choices for the next two spots on my ballot, both pairing elite defense with some pretty great offensive numbers. After that, there isn’t a lot to separate the rest of the ballot. Just missing out on spots were Chris Davis, Michael Brantley and J.D. Martinez.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Kris Bryant
2. Jung-Ho Kang
3. Matt Duffy
Bryant struck out about as much as expected (199 times in 646 plate appearances), yet he managed to hit .275/.369/.488 anyway. The field was really tight in July, with Bryant slumping and Duffy and Joc Pederson flying high, but Bryant created some separation by hitting .330 with seven homers in August and .336 with five homers in September.
Noah Syndergaard, Anthony DeSclafini, Randal Grichuk and Odubel Herrera are also worthy of very strong honorable mentions. Worse performances than those four had have resulted in ROY awards in weaker years.
NL Cy Young
1. Zack Greinke
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Max Scherzer
5. Gerrit Cole
The relevant stat lines:
Greinke: 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 43 R, 14 HR, 200/40 K/BB in 222 2/3 IP
Arrieta: 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 52 R, 10 HR, 236/48 K/BB in 229 IP
Kershaw: 16-7, 2.13 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 62 R, 15 HR, 301 K in 232 2/3 IP
Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the best mark for any qualified starter since Greg Maddux came in at 1.63 in 1995. However, Arrieta’s 1.77 ERA doesn’t exactly pale in comparison. Arrieta also had the better peripherals, though his weren’t quite so good as Kershaw’s, adding just a bit more confusion to the matter. Greinke looks even stronger if we just go by RA; he allowed a mere two unearned runs all season, compared to seven for both Arrieta and Kershaw.
When it comes down to it, I think Greinke was pretty lucky to allow just 43 runs in his 32 starts this season. He’d typically had BABIP’s worse than the league average before coming in at .229 this year, and I don’t believe he suddenly developed a skill to limit base hits. Still, luck or no, 43 runs in 32 starts is an astonishing figure. I give him the nod, even though I’d take either Arrieta or Kershaw over him in a must-win game.
NL MVP
1. Bryce Harper
2. Zack Greinke
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Paul Goldschmidt
5. Anthony Rizzo
6. Clayton Kershaw
7. Joey Votto
8. A.J. Pollock
9. Buster Posey
10. Andrew McCutchen
And I can’t even find room for Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford or Bryant. It’s a tough field.
Fortunately, none of the usual columnist suspects have really tried building a narrative for any of the viable alternatives to Harper, so he should come close to winning the award unanimously, even with things falling down around him in D.C. His offensive numbers are just too overwhelming to bypass, and anyone trying to knock his character is barking up the wrong tree.
Aiding Harper is that the league’s second- and third-best hitters, Goldschmidt and Votto, played for also-rans. Rizzo was outstanding, but it’s hard to make a case for the league’s third-best offensive first baseman when he didn’t even stand out in RBI (he finished at 101). I’m guessing McCutchen will be the runner-up in the actual balloting; he was terrific offensively per usual, but I don’t give him much credit on defense.
Previous selections
AL MVP
2000: Pedro Martinez
2001: Jason Giambi
2002: Alex Rodriguez
2003: Alex Rodriguez
2004: Vladimir Guerrero
2005: Alex Rodriguez
2006: Derek Jeter
2007: Alex Rodriguez
2008: Dustin Pedroia
2009: Joe Mauer
2010: Josh Hamilton
2011: Justin Verlander
2012: Mike Trout
2013: Mike Trout
2014: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young
2000: Pedro Martinez
2001: Mark Mulder
2002: Pedro Martinez
2003: Pedro Martinez
2004: Johan Santana
2005: Johan Santana
2006: Johan Santana
2007: CC Sabathia
2008: Roy Halladay
2009: Zack Greinke
2010: Felix Hernandez
2011: Justin Verlander
2012: Justin Verlander
2013: Max Scherzer
2014: Corey Kluber
AL Rookie of the Year
2000: Terrence Long
2001: Ichiro Suzuki
2002: Eric Hinske
2003: Angel Berroa
2004: Bobby Crosby
2005: Huston Street
2006: Justin Verlander
2007: Dustin Pedroia
2008: Evan Longoria
2009: Andrew Bailey
2010: Neftali Feliz
2011: Jeremy Hellickson
2012: Mike Trout
2013: Jose Iglesias
2014: Jose Abreu
NL MVP
2000: Barry Bonds
2001: Barry Bonds
2002: Barry Bonds
2003: Barry Bonds
2004: Barry Bonds
2005: Derrek Lee
2006: Albert Pujols
2007: Jake Peavy
2008: Albert Pujols
2009: Albert Pujols
2010: Joey Votto
2011: Matt Kemp
2012: Yadier Molina
2013: Andrew McCutchen
2014: Clayton Kershaw
NL Cy Young
2000: Randy Johnson
2001: Randy Johnson
2002: Randy Johnson
2003: Mark Prior
2004: Randy Johnson
2005: Roger Clemens
2006: Brandon Webb
2007: Jake Peavy
2008: Tim Lincecum
2009: Adam Wainwright
2010: Roy Halladay
2011: Roy Halladay
2012: Clayton Kershaw
2013: Clayton Kershaw
2014: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year
2000: Rick Ankiel
2001: Albert Pujols
2002: Austin Kearns
2003: Brandon Webb
2004: Khalil Greene
2005: Ryan Howard
2006: Hanley Ramirez
2007: Troy Tulowitzki
2008: Geovany Soto
2009: J.A. Happ
2010: Jason Heyward
2011: Craig Kimbrel
2012: Bryce Harper
2013: Jose Fernandez
2014: Jacob deGrom
