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Fantasy Baseball players to add with good matchups for stretch run

Fantasy Baseball players to add with good matchups for stretch run

We’re now down to the nitty-gritty of the fantasy regular season. By now, what you have is what you have — the trade deadline has come and gone, and there aren’t too many ways for owners to upgrade their teams. One option, however, is to check the upcoming schedule for opportunities at minimal gains that just might make all the difference.

In Week 21 and the season finale of Three Up, Three Down, we’ll examine the top widely available two-start pitcher for the week ahead, plus two power hitters who are peaking at the right time. On the other end of the spectrum are three players unlikely to help your team snag a playoff spot given their current form.

THREE UP

SP Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels
Stats Aug. 22 – 28: 1 GS, 1-0 W-L, 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K
Percent owned: 47 percent

Shoemaker has been among the league’s unluckiest pitchers all season. His yearlong ERA of 3.98 has underperformed his 3.57 FIP, and his underwhelming 8-13 record is mostly a result of a lack of run support. The woeful Angels average 3.4 runs per game during Shoemaker’s starts, the fifth-lowest of any starter.

Because of this, Shoemaker’s bounce-back season has largely gone under the radar. After a breakout 2014 rookie campaign, he was inconsistent throughout 2015, becoming one of the most home run-prone pitchers in the league. He still doesn’t generate many ground balls, but he’s become more effective by using his sinker more often. As a result, his strikeout and walk rates are more in line with his 2014 season.

Matt Shoemaker Career K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 | PointAfter

Shoemaker has two favorable starts lined up this week: He’ll face the Reds at home on Monday and the Mariners on the road Saturday. In his last two starts against Seattle, he’s thrown 14 innings with a 3.21 ERA. He’s available in over half of leagues and is an excellent streaming option for owners looking to lower their WHIP and maybe pick up a win or two.

1B/OF Brandon Moss, St. Louis Cardinals
Stats Aug. 22 – 28: 8-for-24, 2 HR, 5 R, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K
Percent owned: 52 percent

Moss has quietly enjoyed a career year in St. Louis, though one that got off to a rough start. He slashed .214/.311/.466 in the first two months but caught fire in June, hitting .333/.407/.792 in 21 games. A month-long stint on the disabled list with a sprained ankle kept him out for most of July, but he’s picked right back up where he left off in August.

In 24 games this month, Moss has hit .295/.330/.600, with eight home runs and 20 RBI. Like he has for his entire career, Moss has thrived against right-handed pitching, posting a 159 OPS+ off of righties compared to a 107 OPS+ versus lefties on the year.

Brandon Moss 2016 Batting Splits By Pitcher Hand | PointAfter

The Cardinals are scheduled to face a right-handed starting pitcher in every game for the next two weeks, so expect Moss’ surge to continue. He’s available in nearly half of all leagues and should be picked up by anyone looking for a late-season offensive boost.

1B Chris Carter, Milwaukee Brewers
Stats Aug. 22 – 28: 6-for-22, 1 HR, 3 XBH, 5 R, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 7 BB, 8 K
Percent owned: 49 percent

Carter is your classic Three True Outcomes hitter, ranking second in the league in strikeout rate, 16th in walk rate and 11th in home runs. He’s always been a streaky hitter, and he’s been on a roll the past month.

Carter has hit .258/.400/.528 in August, with six home runs and 12 extra base hits. He’s hit safely in 16 of his past 20 games, with a 25.6 K% and 18.3 BB%, both improvements from his season-long marks. His .528 August slugging percentage is his highest monthly total since slugging .581 in April.

Chris Carter 2016 Batting Splits by Month | PointAfter

Over the course of a full season, Carter’s low batting average makes it difficult to start him every day, but right now he’s definitely a viable asset. He’s available in over half of leagues, and he could be a steal for owners in need of some home run pop.

THREE DOWN

SP Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals
Stats Aug. 22 – 28: 2 GS, 0-1 W-L, 11.0 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 4 HR, 2 BB, 12 K
Percent owned: 69 percent

Starting pitchers of Garcia’s ilk — league-average pitchers on good teams — are typically useful fantasy assets, good bets to get you a win despite not having stellar strikeout or ERA totals. That wasn’t the case this past week for the lefty, who came up short in two starts that looked like advantageous matchups.

Garcia was tagged for six runs in four innings of work against the Mets, then gave up five runs in seven innings versus Oakland on Sunday. He allowed two home runs in each start, as his struggles with the long ball continue. Garcia has allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings, his highest rate in a season in which he’s thrown at least 100 innings.

Jaime Garcia Career HR/9 | PointAfter

Garcia has posted a career-worst 4.17 FIP this season and his highest walk rate since 2010, indicating he’s not the same pitcher he used to be. Owners shouldn’t keep him on their rosters unless he has a favorable matchup moving forward.

C/1B Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics
Stats Aug. 22 – 28: 1-for-15, 1 HR, 1 R, 4 RBI, 0 BB, 5 K
Percent owned: 65 percent

Power potential at the catcher position is a rarity, and having a backstop on your roster who hits home runs can cover up any other warts the player might have (i.e. low batting average, no stolen bases). Given his 18-home run output last season, Vogt should fit into that category, but he hasn’t looked like that kind of hitter for some time now.

Vogt made his second All-Star team by hitting .277/.320/.442 with seven home runs in the first half (and because somebody had to represent the awful A’s). Post-break, he’s hit more like a backup catcher, slashing .218/.265/.345 with just three dingers and eight extra base hits.

Stephen Vogt 2016 Batting Splits by Month | PointAfter

The A’s are in a rebuilding mode and are likely to give some minor leaguers a shot at playing time once rosters expand in September. That probably won’t change Vogt’s playing time situation, but it will diminish the already subpar supporting cast the A’s have around him in the lineup. Given his poor form and even worse hitting environment, now seems like a good time to target widely available catching alternatives like Yasmani Grandal, Welington Castillo, Sandy Leon and Mike Zunino.

RP Fernando Rodney, Miami Marlins
Stats Aug. 22 – 28: 3 G, 3.0 IP, 1 SV, 1-0 W-L, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K
Percent owned: 74 percent

Since taking over as the Marlins closer for injured A.J. Ramos on Aug. 7, Rodney has performed admirably in a familiar role. In 12 games, the 39-year-old has pitched 12 innings with just one earned run allowed, though his eight walks (plus one hit batter) don’t exactly scream lockdown closer.

Still, he’s racked up eight saves and one win during that timeframe, but that type of production probably isn’t here to stay. Ramos was activated from the DL on Aug. 21, and he’s pitched four shutout innings since in a setup role. He’s performed well since taking over as the team’s closer last season, with a career strikeout rate of 10.5 batters per nine innings.

A.J. Ramos Career K/9 and BB/9 | PointAfter

It’s only be a matter of time before Ramos reclaims his closer status, meaning Rodney will have little fantasy worth. Owners should keep an eye on the situation and be ready to drop Rodney as soon as he stops getting the ball with a slim lead in the ninth inning.

Nick Selbe is a writer for PointAfter, a sports data aggregation and visualization website that's part of the Graphiq network. PointAfter is a platform for hitting charts, scatter plots and other data visualizations about MLB players, NBA teams and dozens of other topics.