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Fan's Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

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The Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers will meet during Week 5 of the 2012-13 NFL season on October 7, 2012. The game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. These are my picks against the spread for that contest.

The Packers have a 2-2 record. The Colts have a 1-2 record. Since 1988, each of these teams have exchanged victories. The Packers have never defeated the Colts at Indianapolis. The Packers haven't won a road game against the Colts since the Colts were located at Baltimore. That was 1974.

The early spread is Packers (-7). The over-under total is 47.5. As of October 3, all odds are from Yahoo! Sports. Click the "Key Injuries" for injury reports from official team websites. ESPN also has injury reports.

Week 4 Results

New Orleans Saints 27 at Green Bay Packers 28

Indianapolis Colts BYE

Key Injuries: Green Bay Packers (As of October 3)

CB Davon House, WR Greg Jennings, DL Ryan Pickett

Key Injuries: Indianapolis Colts (As of October 3)

LB Pat Angerer, CB Vontae Davis, TE Coby Fleener, LB Dwight Freeney

Keys To The Game

Colts' Motivation vs. Packers' Desperation

The Packers' Ability to Block Robert Mathis or Dwight Freeney

Andrew Luck vs. Packers' 3-4 Defense

Packers' Defense vs. Coby Fleener

The Colts' Ability to Score with the Packers

Cedric Benson vs. Colts' Run-Defense

Summary

The Colts are coming off a bye week. This is their first game since Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will serve as the interim head coach.

The Colts have already played two NFC North opponents. In Week 1, the Chicago Bears defeated them 41-21. The Colts followed that up with a home victory over the Minnesota Vikings, 23-20. After finishing the 2011-12 season with a 2-14 record, the Colts were a blown coverage away from starting this season 2-1.

The Packers are the more-talented and more-experienced team. With a 2-2 record and a Week 6 road game against the Houston Texans, the Packers can't afford to lose this game. At the same time, the Colts have had two weeks of preparation. They'll also want to have a good showing for Coach Pagano.

I'm still favoring the Packers. At this point in their careers, I don't see Andrew Luck defeating Aaron Rodgers. That's especially true with the skill-position weapons that Rodgers has. Similar to how the Bears' cover-2 defense forced Luck into three interceptions, I expect Luck to make some mistakes against Dom Capers' 3-4 defense.

Green Bay Packers (-7) at Indianapolis Colts: The Pick

Against The Spread: Indianapolis Colts (+7)

Straight: Green Bay Packers 23, Indianapolis Colts 17

Joshua Huffman graduated from Middle Tennessee State University as a marketing major in 2009. He's been a Middle Tennessee resident from 1986-88 and 2001-present. He lived in the Upper Peninsula and Northern Wisconsin from 1988-01 and for approximately eight months in 2009-10 as he completed a 20-game volunteer position with the USHL's Green Bay Gamblers. His favorite sports organizations include the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Cubs, Nashville Predators and Tennessee Titans. He can be found on Twitter HERE.

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