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Fan’s Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

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The Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills will meet during Week 7 of the 2012-13 NFL season on October 21, 2012. The game will be played at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. These are some picks against the spread for that contest.

The Bills have a 3-3 record. The Titans have a 2-4 record. In three road losses, the Titans have been outscored 106-27. Since 1995, the Titans (and Houston Oilers) have won seven of the past eight meetings. They've won the last four. These teams last played on December 4, 2011. The Titans won 23-17.

The early spread is Bills (-3). The over-under total is 46.5. As of October 17, all odds are from Yahoo! Sports. Click the "Key Injuries" for injury reports from official team websites.

Week 6 Results

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 at Tennessee Titans 26

Buffalo Bills 19 at Arizona Cardinals 16

Key Injuries: Tennessee Titans (As of October 17)

QB Jake Locker (Out), DT Jurrell Casey, LB Colin McCarthy

Key Injuries: Buffalo Bills (As of October 17)

DE Mark Anderson, CB Terrence McGee, G Kraig Urbik, DT Kyle Williams

Keys To The Game

C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson vs. Titans' Run-Defense

Chris Johnson vs. Bills' Run-Defense

Which Defense can get the Most Stops?

The Effectiveness of the Titans' Safeties

Scott Chandler vs. Titans' Defense

Red Zone Defense

Pass Protection

Tackling

Turnovers

Summary

The Titans have allowed 34 points per game. The Bills have allowed 32 points per game. Those are the NFL's two highest totals for points allowed. That doesn't necessarily mean that this will turn into a shootout.

When these teams lose, they lose big. The Bills have lost three games. What was the combined score in those losses? 145-59. The Titans have lost four games. What was the combined score in those losses? 140-44.

The Bills have allowed 173.5 rushing yards per game. They're allowing 5.8 yards per carry. That's more than any other team. They've looked especially bad in the past two weeks. The San Francisco 49ers had 311 rushing yards. The Arizona Cardinals have the NFL's 27th-ranked run-offense. They were without their two best running backs. Yet, they had 182 rushing yards. These stats are skewed because of the Bills' inability to contain mobile quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and even Kevin Kolb). Matt Hasselbeck offers nothing in mobility.

The Titans have the NFL's 32nd-ranked run-offense. However, they should exploit this run-defense. Chris Johnson has looked much better in the past three weeks. When these teams played in 2011, Johnson had 23 carries for 153 yards. For the Titans to win, Johnson must attack the holes and not bounce everything outside.

The Titans have had their own difficulty with run-defense. They've allowed 129.5 yards per game. The Bills' run-offense has averaged 147.7 yards per game. Led by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, they're averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Titans' run-defense has improved since Colin McCarthy returned to the lineup.

What about the quarterbacks? They don't need to play fancy. They just need to avoid turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the perfect example of this. In three wins, Fitzpatrick has completed 50-of-86 passes for 539 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. In three losses, Fitzpatrick has completed 56-of-97 passes with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.

The over-under total is 46.5. That surprises me. With two defenses that have allowed more points than any other units, I would've guessed a minimum of 51. This leads me to think that both teams will eat clock with their ground games. This leads to fewer possessions. That leads to fewer scores.

And that favors the Titans. With that said, they'll miss Locker's mobility.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3): The Pick

Against The Spread: Tennessee Titans (+3)

Straight: Tennessee Titans 23, Buffalo Bills 20

Joshua Huffman grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula as a Green Bay Packers and Chicago Cubs enthusiast. He immediately gained an admiration for Cubs fans after watching numerous games on WGN during the mid-90s. His favorite Cubs moment was Kerry Wood's(notes) 1-hitter, 20K extravaganza that was only denied of a no-hitter by Kevin Orie's defensive blunder. As a Packers and Cubs fan, he suffered through Steve Bartman and "4th & 26" in a span of three months. He can be found on Twitter HERE.

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