Dynasty Rookie Rankings Update
Soon after the NFL Draft, our Evan Silva released his initial rookie rankings, filled with many great nuggets about the new class of NFL players. With rookie camp, full training camp and pre-season games all taking place in the past couple of months, there has been significant opportunity for rookie rankings to change. With the final batch of dynasty rookie drafts happening soon, I wanted to revisit the deep rookie class of 2015, based on what has happened since draft day.
Quarterbacks:
With the depth at the quarterback position, fantasy owners rarely, if ever, have to rely on a rookie to fill a need right away. With that in mind, I am always looking for the best long-term prospect, as well as a player who has QB1 upside. Finding the next Andy Dalton or Alex Smith will not impact a fantasy team and even if the player does become an NFL starter, is unlikely to make it worth the wait and roster spot.
This class of quarterbacks is both shallow and top heavy, with little of interest beyond the top two picks in the NFL Draft.
1) Jameis Winston, TB
As expected, Winston is slated to be the Week One starter for the possibly potent Buccaneer offense and to the surprise of some, there hasn’t really been much of a competition. While no one expected holdover Mike Glennon to pose a serious threat, the Tampa Bay coaching staff has been clearly committed to the former Seminole from day one. His preseason performance so far has been somewhat shaky, which is to be expected from any rookie quarterback, but with the weapons he has to throw to, he’s still my top quarterback option of this class.
2) Marcus Mariota, TEN
Like Winston, there are many questions facing Titans’ rookie Mariota, but none of those seem to be centered around the depth chart, as the former Duck has claimed the job. Also like his counterpart in Tampa Bay, there was really no competition, despite the presence of last season’s starter, Zach Mettenberger. The main difference between the two rookie quarterbacks’ dynasty value now is the quality of players surrounding them. The Titans’ offense has a long way to go, with uncertainty at the running back position and unproven receivers like Justin Hunter and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham.
3) Brett Hundley, GB
The drop from Mariota to the next option is drastic and I hesitated to even include any other quarterbacks. With Hundley, it’s all about situation. Playing behind Aaron Rodgers might look like a bad spot, considering he could see a similar fate to Brock Osweiler, who’s been stuck behind Peyton Manning for the entirety of his first NFL contract. This ranking is all about the possibility of Rodgers getting hurt, something none of us hopes will happen. If it does though, Hundley would have a shot at the starting job and with the high-powered Green Bay offense, would quickly gain value.
4) Garrett Grayson, NO
It’s a similar story for Grayson in New Orleans, but his time could actually come sooner as we all witnessed the beginning of the end with Drew Brees a year ago. Now without Jimmy Graham, we’ll see if Brees can bounce back leaning heavily on Brandin Cooks. If not, the team could consider Grayson for 2016.
5) Bryce Petty, NYJ
I think Petty has a good shot to play this season, which is something that can be said for most of these rookie quarterbacks. Playing behind an already injured Geno Smith and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets could be in a position to see what they have in the rookie, if they’re out of contention late in the season. The only bad news is, I don’t think Petty is very good.
6) Sean Mannion, STL
Earlier in the off-season, I had Mannion ranked higher on this list, for some of the same reasons as Petty, but the Rams seem very happy with their acquisition of Nick Foles and are committed to him for the long haul.
Running Backs:
This class of running backs has been a highly anticipated lot for months, even years, for many dynasty players. The running back position has been down across the league and just hasn’t been a priority for many in the dynasty format and this class has been viewed as the savior of the position. That’s a high level of expectation and a lot of reliance on a group of players that have yet to play an official snap.
1) Todd Gurley, STL
Gurley was already considered one of the top options in dynasty rookie drafts, even though he entered the league coming off a torn ACL. Since then, it’s been all good news for Gurley, despite not actually playing in a preseason game yet. While Gurley is expected to miss the first couple of games of the regular season, it once seemed that a spot on the PUP list was the best-case scenario. With reports that Gurley will be on the field earlier than expected, he’s a full go in dynasty rookie drafts.
2) Melvin Gordon, SD
Most expected Gordon to walk into San Diego and be handed the starting job, but that might not be the case. It was Danny Woodhead who vultured Gordon for a red zone touchdown earlier in the preseason. Gordon then missed the team’s second game with an ankle injury, though that doesn’t seem serious. I’m still glad to grab Gordon in my rookie drafts, though I think he’s closer to tier two than the top-tier players like Gurley.
3) TJ Yeldon, JAX
After the free agent flop of Toby Gerhart, the running back job in Jacksonville was wide open and it seems that Yeldon will be claiming the gig. No one is handing him the job either though, and he has yet to suit up in a preseason game. With no other strong options at the position, I’ll be very interested to see how Yeldon plays the remainder of the preseason. He’s gaining value in dynasty leagues, but I can’t really explain why.
4) Ameer Abdullah, DET
Possibly the hottest name among all rookies has been Abdullah, the Lions electric running back, who broke off a long 45 yard run in the team’s first preseason game. While Joique Bell continues to be sidelined, everyone involved still expects this to be a committee attack, at best. I’ve been one of the biggest doubters when it comes to Abdullah’s fantasy impact, but he has moved up my ranks in the past weeks, though his current value is getting out of hand.
5) Duke Johnson, CLE
By all accounts, this will not be the year to own a running back in Cleveland. All three backs vying for time, including Johnson and sophomores Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell, have battled nagging injuries this off-season and we’re likely to see all three sharing the ball in most games. With that said, we’re playing dynasty and thinking long-term. I still like Johnson and especially the value he currently offers, routinely falling to the second round of rookie drafts.
6) Tevin Coleman, ATL
It was expected to be a battle for the Falcons’ starting running back job between Coleman and second year man Devonta Freeman. Instead, they’ve both been hobbled by hamstring injuries and we know nothing more now than we did weeks ago. I still think Coleman is the more talented of the two backs, so I’d consider him in the late first or early second round of rookie drafts.
7) David Johnson, ARZ
After being sidelined for much of training camp and missing the team’s opening preseason, the dynasty stock of the Cardinals’ rookie Johnson was wavering already. Once he stepped on the field though, Johnson reminded everyone why the Cardinals pegged him as their third round draft pick. Johnson was impressive both running and catching the ball. While I’m somewhat impartial on Johnson’s long-term outlook, I am not a believer at all in his competition, Andre Ellington. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnson is getting the majority of touches in the offense by mid-season, which boosts his value in these rankings.
8) Matt Jones, WAS
Jones, the former Gator, is another rookie who has been impressive in preseason play. Alfred Morris seems to have a firm grasp on the starting role, but Jones will see his share of carries and has proven to be a playmaker already. He’s one of the biggest movers since the spring.
9) Jay Ajayi, MIA
Ajayi was such a productive college player that his short tenure in the NFL has been perplexing. A report of a bad knee immediately before the NFL Draft caused Ajayi to fall to the fifth round after initial expectations pegged him as a second rounder and the third back off the board. Things haven’t gotten better since as he’s missed time with a hamstring injury, struggled with pass blocking and has been called a disappointment. There were even some rumors that he could be in danger of not making the final 53-man roster, though that seems overblown. At this point, playing behind Lamar Miller and Damien Williams, who has played well this preseason, Ajayi is more of a stash play in dynasty leagues.
10) David Cobb, TEN
A fifth round pick, Cobb earned praise after a solid start to training camp, but has not flashed in games. Meanwhile, second year back Bishop Sankey has played well and strengthened his grip on the starting job. I still have my doubts if Sankey can be an effective NFL starter, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Cobb can be the man either.
11) Javorius Allen, BAL
Justin Forsett surprised last season and looks to be entrenched as the starter in the Marc Trestman offense, so the battle has been on for the backup spot in Baltimore. Allen’s competition for the job is Lorenzo Taliaferro, who just went down with an MCL sprain that will keep him on the shelf for a few weeks. That leaves Allen, the powerful runner from Southern Cal, as the primary backup and in line for some touches. He’s a steal where he’s being drafted in rookie drafts.
12) Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
Artis-Payne, another powerhouse runner, has a lot in common with Allen and it looks like he too will win the backup role for his team, the Panthers. Jonathan Stewart had a surprisingly good season a year ago, but will always carry injury concerns. If he goes down, this could be CAP’s show.
13) Josh Robinson, IND
The backfield is a little more crowded for the Colts, but that hasn’t slowed the bowling ball back from Mississippi State, Robinson. My feeling is the Colts had a long-term plan in mind when they selected Robinson late in the NFL Draft, but he may have surprised them with his ability, and it could cost Dan Herron a role on this team. Robinson is still ultra-cheap in dynasty leagues and is worthy of a stash in larger leagues.
14) Karlos Williams, BUF
In case you hadn’t noticed, everybody and their brother is hurt in Buffalo, and that includes rookie Williams, as well as the team’s top two backs, LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson. It’s not being revealed exactly what is keeping Williams out of action, though he is expected to be back by Week One. Prior to the mystery ailment, Williams had surprised and created a buzz that he could win the backup job. The backfield will be crowded in 2015, but that may not be the case a year from now as Jackson is nearing the end of his career and McCoy is past his prime as well.
15) Jeremy Langford, CHI
There’s been little discussion of Bears’ rookie back Langford this off-season and the Chicago backfield is deep behind starter Matt Forte. Along with Langford, the team also signed pass catching back Jacquizz Rodgers and brought back Ka’Deem Carey. Langford is worthy of a late pick, but nothing more than that.
16) Zach Zenner, DET
Although he’s not considered a lock to make the Lions’ final 53 man roster, Zenner lands a spot in these rankings after an impressive off-season. Reportedly, Zenner will need to make an impact on special teams to earn a spot, which is true of many rookies. The good news for the big back from South Dakota State is that if he does miss the cut, he will almost certainly land with another team.
17) Thomas Rawls, SEA
We all thought we had this situation figured out as the Seahawks would start Marshawn Lynch and rely on a pair of talented backups, Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Then Seattle signed undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls who has been a great surprise, causing some to think Michael’s roster spot could be in danger. I don’t think this will be the case, but it says something about Rawls and how the team values him.
18) Mike Davis, SF
Davis was once considered a top running back prospect, but it was a surprise when he left South Carolina early for the NFL, where the 49ers chose him in the mid-rounds. Davis is expected to play behind Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush this season, and could also lose snaps to Kendall Hunter. I think a lot has to go Davis’ way for him to see meaningful time this year.
19) Gus Johnson, DAL
Dynasty owners have spent much of the off-season trying to find the next feature back for the Cowboys and there’s a chance, albeit a small chance, that Johnson could be that player we’ve been searching for. The Stephen F. Austin product actually earned some first team carries in practice and scored in the team’s first preseason game before suffering a shoulder injury that forced him out of the game. Even with the injury, the team decided to part ways with one of those players dynasty owners were chasing earlier in the off-season, Lache Seastrunk.
20) Malcolm Brown, STL
With a pair of top young backs at the top of the depth chart, St. Louis is not the best spot for a running back looking for touches these days, but Malcolm Brown has looked good early in the preseason and could find his way onto the roster, though he’ll still have to battle Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason, not to mention Gurley, for touches.
Others to consider: Michael Dyer (OAK) Terron Ward (ATL), Kenny Hilliard (HOU), Trey Williams (WAS), Tyler Varga (IND), Jalston Fowler (TEN), Dominique Brown (TB)
Wide Receivers:
The wide receiver group has been on a dynasty value roller coaster. At first glance prior to the draft, this looked like a very top-heavy group with only a couple of potential studs, and then many question marks. After the NFL Combine, a few players emerged as possible first round picks and the group as a whole suddenly looked strong and deep. Since the draft though, injuries have hit hard and forced many of the top players to the sidelines, weakening the overall group, at least in the short-term.
1) Amari Cooper, OAK
Cooper has been the top receiver in the class for over a year and even landing with the Raiders isn’t enough to change that. I expect him to be an absolute target hog for Oakland and he’s easily the top option at his position. Nothing has really changed for Cooper since the draft. He’s drawn praise from teammates, former players, members of the coaching staff and media members, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. He’s also looked solid in the team’s opening two preseason games.
2) DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker missed the beginning of his senior season at Louisville with a broken foot and since the Dolphins made him their first round selection, he’s had another procedure on the same foot. It’s far from good news, but also not as devastating as previously considered. There is now doubt if Parker will be ready for Week One, but I still value the athletic big receiver highly in dynasty leagues.
3) Nelson Agholor, PHI
Agholor was one of those receivers who burst onto the scene after an impressive pre-draft period. On top of that, he landed with the Eagles and Chip Kelly, further boosting his dynasty value. The reports have been up and down for Agholor in training camp and preseason, but the depth chart speaks for itself and Agholor will have a chance to be a big part of this high-powered offense.
4) Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN
Opinions were widely varied regarding Green-Beckham throughout the draft process. According to most, DGB had among the best talent and best tape in the draft, but off-field issues were looming, causing him to fall to the second round. Landing with the Titans is not ideal, despite the addition of Mariota. I can certainly see the offense limiting Green-Beckham and ultimately hurting his dynasty value. Hopefully I’m wrong on this one, because I really love his talent.
5) Breshad Perriman, BAL
After a dominant combine performance, Perriman was thrust into the first round of both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts. He was being selected in the top half of said rookie drafts with the assumption he could quickly ascend the Ravens’ wide receiver depth chart. A PCL injury has kept him out of action for much of training camp though and there are starting to be some concerns this will stretch into the regular season. We saw something similar with Odell Beckham a year ago. While expecting that type of performance from Perriman, or Parker or any other rookie receiver is unfair, it does serve as a reminder we shouldn’t give up on these players so quickly.
6) Devin Funchess, CAR
Funchess is a player who has seen a recent bump in his dynasty stock, but that has more to do with the season-ending injury to fellow Panthers’ receiver Kelvin Benjamin than anything Funchess has done thus far. Funchess hasn’t exactly wowed the Panthers’ coaching staff, according to reports, but he should see plenty of targets to make him fantasy relevant as soon as this season. He could be this season’s Benjamin in more ways than one.
7) Phillip Dorsett, IND
Dorsett, the playmaker from Miami, is another rookie receiver where opinions vary wildly. Regardless of how you feel about the player himself, Dorsett certainly got a bump when the Colts made him a surprise first-rounder and Andrew Luck became his quarterback. The concern I’ve heard is the crowded Indianapolis depth chart, along with Dorsett’s small frame.
8) Kevin White, CHI
White, the Bears’ first round pick, is clearly the player falling the most since NFL Draft weekend. Of course, his leg injury is the cause for this drop, but I had my concerns about him even before the injury. Many are still willing to take him in the top half of the first round, it seems, but he’s closer to a late first rounder for me. There’s also the mysterious confusion about White’s age. Some sites disagree on his birthdate, but he could essentially be a 24-year-old rookie in 2016 if he indeed misses the entire season, as is the rumor.
9) Jaelen Strong, HOU
With Andre Johnson gone from Houston, it looked like the rookie Strong could step right in and earn a starting role. Instead, as evidenced on Hard Knocks, Strong has struggled mightily with drops. The Texans also have a quarterback, or maybe lack of a quarterback issue to deal with. I am a believer in Strong and he has an excellent chance of landing a starting spot, but is looking like a long-term play.
10) Tyler Lockett, SEA
Based on the dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football, Lockett is already the most valuable receiver on the Seahawks by a wide margin. He’s also dazzled in training camp and preseason so far, boosting his dynasty value by leaps and bounds. I could see Lockett as the Martavis Bryant of this class, moving from a third round rookie pick to third round startup pick range.
11) Stefon Diggs, MIN
Another smaller wide receiver that has turned heads this preseason, bumping his dynasty value, is Diggs in Minnesota. Especially impressive in the return game, Diggs’ biggest hurdle is the loaded receiver depth chart for the Vikings, including Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson, along with Jarius Wright and the struggling Cordarrelle Patterson. Due to that depth chart, Diggs may not get a shot this year, but has the playmaking ability to make an impact when he’s on the field.
12) Justin Hardy, ATL
After Antonio Brown crashed the elite wide receiver party the past two years, the dynasty community is finally coming around on the value of smaller wide receivers and Hardy is yet another rookie this year showing he belongs. With the departure of Harry Douglas, Hardy could see immediate playing time out of the slot, and Roddy White is really showing his age.
13) Devin Smith, NYJ
I’m sure you’re noticing a few themes across this group of pass catchers, with one being early injuries. Smith will miss the entirety of training camp and preseason games after suffering broken ribs and a punctured lung. Soon after the injury, there was some hope he’d be ready for Week One, but recent reports suggest that will not be the case. Considering the Jets’ woes at quarterback and the presence of veterans Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, this could be a lost season for Smith.
14) Chris Conley, KC
The ultimate winner from the NFL Combine was former Georgia wide receiver Conley, who dominated nearly every “event” and made a name for himself. This was enough to make him a third round selection for one of the most receiver-needy teams in the league, the Chiefs, who infamously didn’t score a wide receiver touchdown in 2014. Conley has failed to make waves this off-season, missing time with a bum knee. Other than Jeremy Maclin, Conley could be the most talented receiver on the team.
15) Sammie Coates, PIT
I’ve nearly reached the point of blindly trusting any wideout drafted by the Steelers. In recent years, they’ve loaded up with current receiver Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton, as well as standouts Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders, who’ve moved on to other teams. Coates is buried on the depth chart and won’t be much of a factor this year, but is worthy of a stash as we wait and see.
16) DeAndre Smelter, SF
Smelter enters the league coming off a torn ACL, so he’s had no chance to really increase his dynasty value. Smelter has yet to participate in any off-season workouts or training camp practices, but the team needs help at the position, even after signing Torrey Smith this off-season.
17) Ty Montgomery, GB
Montgomery, a surprise third round pick by the Packers, has been a hot name over the past few days following the season-ending injury to star Jordy Nelson. Montgomery reportedly has a shot to compete for the third wide receiver role behind Randall Cobb and Davante Adams, with his prime competition being second year receiver Jeff Janis.
18) Tre McBride, TEN
McBride was a draftnik favorite entering the NFL Draft, but nearly went undrafted altogether before the Titans took a chance on him in the final round. The team has a lot of questions at the receiver position with the off-field issues of Justin Hunter, along with unproven rookies like McBride and Green-Beckham. McBride is yet another young wideout who is unlikely to have a role this season, but has the talent to make a splash moving forward.
19) Kenny Bell, TB
Bell was drafted to be the slot man on a team full of trees at the other pass catcher spots. With Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins all offering quarterback Jameis Winston some huge targets, Bell could sneak in and man the underneath routes and find some dynasty value.
20) Kasen Williams, SEA
The hometown Seahawks signed undrafted free agent Williams after he failed a physical with the Bengals. Williams showed his talent at the University of Washington, but often dealt with injury issues. Williams makes this list primarily due to the lack of playmakers on the Seahawks’ depth chart.
Others to consider: Jamison Crowder (WAS), Rashard Greene (JAX), DeAndre Carter (BAL), Titus Davis (SD), Darren Waller (BAL), Vince Mayle (CLE), Jordan Taylor (DEN), Devante Davis (PHI), Deontay Greenberry (DAL)
Tight Ends:
The tight end group this year is one of the worst in recent memory. Combining the overall lack of fantasy appeal of this group with the dynasty community’s sudden realization that young tight ends are not always the best investment has this group really falling down draft boards.
1) Maxx Williams, BAL
Williams, the athletic tight end from Minnesota, landed in the perfect spot with the Ravens and their need at the position. The team has a major hole at the position after back to back serious hip injuries to Dennis Pitta have effectively ended his career. They do have second year man Crockett Gilmore, but we don’t really know what he can offer either. I like Williams to be the starter in Baltimore eventually, but any rookie tight end in this class will have to really fall to consider drafting them.
2) Clive Walford, OAK
Early on in the off-season, many expected Walford to win the starting tight end job over last year’s surprise, Mychal Rivera. Instead, Walford has gained little ground, missing the majority of training camp with a hamstring injury. Like Williams, I still think Walford wins out in the long run, but rosters have to be deep to hang onto him early in the season.
3) MyCole Pruitt, MIN
Much like the quarterback class, after the top two tight ends, there’s a strong argument no others are even worth a roster spot. If I’m taking a shot on one of the remaining options though, it’s Pruitt, the Norv Turner favorite who is already locked into the backup job behind Kyle Rudolph. Also a favorite of SPARQ believers, Pruitt suffered an ankle injury in the team’s recent preseason game, but it doesn’t seem serious. Pruitt has some big time upside and is likely sitting on your league’s waiver wire.
4) Blake Bell, SF
Bell, the former Oklahoma quarterback, is an intriguing tight end project. In San Francisco, Vernon Davis is slowing down and there are no sure things behind him on the depth chart. Like Pruitt, he’s only a stash right now, but his measurables are enticing if you have roster spots to spare.
5) Jesse James, PIT
There’s been almost no news regarding former Nittany Lion James, the Steelers’ newest tight end, other than his struggles in the team’s matchup with the Vikings. James is a real long shot at this point and only worthy of a roster spot in very deep league with premium tight end scoring.
Others to consider: Tyler Kroft (CIN), Nick O’Leary (BUF)
