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Draft Prep: The Price is Right

This column examines player prices for Auction drafts, to help identify over-valued and under-valued players in every round. Before looking at those numbers, however, we should discuss the basic format and strategies for auctions.

The prices below represent current Yahoo! Sports auction leagues, which by default feature: 12 teams, 13-player rosters (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UTIL, UTIL and three bench spots), 9 categories, and a $200 budget.

Most GMs aim to splurge on 1-2 elite players like Kevin Durant, LeBron James or Stephen Curry, then add a few more players with top-40 upside and round out the roster with cheap value-picks as the draft winds down. This is a perfectly viable strategy which could yield a roster that looks like this:

Kevin Durant - $82

Chris Paul - $64

Rudy Gay - $24

Terrence Jones - $9

Markieff Morris - $6

Mario Chalmers - $5

Draymond Green - $3

Reggie Jackson - $2

Jordan Hill - $1

Gorgui Dieng - $1

John Henson - $1

Marcus Smart - $1

Matt Barnes - $1

Total - $200

That theoretical roster highlights the essential role of bargain-bin players, guys who cost under $5 but are worth (on a dollar-for-dollar basis) much more. You should strive to spend every single dollar in your budget, as any leftover money represents a squandered opportunity. The trick is to follow the 'spend it all' mantra without locking yourself into a situation where you have seven empty roster spots and $7 left to spend. Toward the end of most competitive auction drafts, having an extra buck or two can be the difference between landing Mario Chalmers or Jameer Nelson.

With the team above as our example, you could also have avoided Chris Paul in favor of a lesser PG in the $30 range, and used the resulting +$34 to stock up on undervalued players in the middle rounds and late rounds. Instead of Jordan Hill, Marcus Smart and Matt Barnes, you might end up with guys like Derrick Favors, Victor Oladipo and Tyreke Evans.

I love to acquire one of the top-5 fantasy players and will usually 'overpay' slightly to get one of them, but my strategy is dictated by other owners in my league. If there's a frenzy for elite players, with prices spiraling upward, I'm content to sit back and let other GMs break the bank. I'll also bid-up players I don't want or don't plan to get, but you should always err on the side of caution -- if the clock is getting low, indicating that most owners are content to let a player slide, bidding-up is not advisable. Drafting more than one super-expensive stud also increases the risk that a single injury will derail your season, so it’s usually wise to spread your $200 more evenly throughout the draft.

You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW. If you have any questions or comments about this column, Twitter is the best way to send them to me.

There is no single approach to auction-draft success, in other words, but it’s critical to assess player values before you get into the draft lobby. This chart should help you visualize the steep decline in player prices, with elite options commanding a premium (I’ve sorted it into 12-player ‘rounds’ for the sake of clarity).

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Without further ado, here are the current Yahoo! auction prices based upon the league settings described above. Players I feel are over-valued have been highlighted in red, and under-valued players are green. Keep in mind that this references 9-cat values! (UPDATE: The formatting was lost in translation when converting it to HTML, but you can click here for my original file with the color-coded cells.)

Player

Yahoo! Auction Prices (9-cat, $200 budget)

Kevin Durant OKC - SF,PF

$83.00

LeBron James Cle - SF,PF

$80.20

Anthony Davis NO - PF,C

$73.20

Stephen Curry GS - PG,SG

$70.60

Chris Paul LAC - PG

$69.00

James Harden Hou - SG,SF

$68.50

Kevin Love Cle - PF,C

$66.50

Carmelo Anthony NY - SF,PF

$62.80

Russell Westbrook OKC - PG

$60.10

LaMarcus Aldridge Por - PF,C

$55.60

DeMarcus Cousins Sac - PF,C

$53.70

John Wall Was - PG

$53.50

Serge Ibaka OKC - PF,C

$53.50

Kyrie Irving Cle - PG,SG

$52.30

Al Jefferson Cha - PF,C

$50.50

Damian Lillard Por - PG

$46.90

Kyle Lowry Tor - PG

$44.90

Dirk Nowitzki Dal - PF,C

$44.80

Blake Griffin LAC - PF,C

$42.50

Kawhi Leonard SA - SG,SF

$41.70

Goran Dragic Pho - PG,SG

$39.50

Brook Lopez Bkn - C

$38.00

Al Horford Atl - PF,C

$37.20

Joakim Noah Chi - PF,C

$36.20

Chris Bosh Mia - PF,C

$35.80

Nicolas Batum Por - SG,SF

$32.30

Derrick Rose Chi - PG

$31.40

Paul Millsap Atl - PF,C

$30.60

Deron Williams Bkn - PG

$29.50

Mike Conley Mem - PG

$27.90

Rajon Rondo Bos - PG

$27.70

Ty Lawson Den - PG

$27.00

Dwyane Wade Mia - PG,SG

$26.90

Kobe Bryant LAL - PG,SG

$26.90

Dwight Howard Hou - PF,C

$25.50

Andre Drummond Det - PF,C

$23.90

Ryan Anderson NO - PF,C

$23.60

Rudy Gay Sac - SF,PF

$22.90

DeAndre Jordan LAC - C

$22.80

Eric Bledsoe Pho - PG,SG

$22.70

Klay Thompson GS - SG,SF

$20.90

Marc Gasol Mem - C

$20.30

Thaddeus Young Min - SF,PF

$20.20

Nikola Vucevic Orl - PF,C

$20.20

Tim Duncan SA - PF,C

$20.20

Chandler Parsons Dal - SF,PF

$18.80

Nerlens Noel Phi - PF,C

$18.10

Jrue Holiday NO - PG

$16.60

Ricky Rubio Min - PG

$16.60

Isaiah Thomas Pho - PG

$16.20

Monta Ellis Dal - PG,SG

$16.20

DeMar DeRozan Tor - SG,SF

$14.80

Jabari Parker Mil - SF

$14.70

Kemba Walker Cha - PG

$13.70

Tony Parker SA - PG

$13.40

Jeff Teague Atl - PG

$13.40

Gordon Hayward Uta - SG,SF

$12.80

Bradley Beal Was - SG

$12.70

Andrew Wiggins Min - SF

$12.70

Wesley Matthews Por - SG,SF

$12.50

Victor Oladipo Orl - PG,SG

$12.10

Pau Gasol Chi - PF,C

$11.80

Marcin Gortat Was - C

$10.60

Jimmy Butler Chi - SG,SF

$10.40

David Lee GS - PF,C

$10.40

Derrick Favors Uta - PF,C

$10.10

Kenneth Faried Den - PF

$9.90

David West Ind - PF

$9.70

Josh Smith Det - SF,PF

$9.30

Trevor Ariza Hou - SG,SF

$9.20

Michael Carter-Williams Phi - PG

$8.80

Nikola Pekovic Min - C

$8.20

Lance Stephenson Cha - SG,SF

$7.90

Larry Sanders Mil - PF,C

$7.30

Kevin Martin Min - SG,SF

$7.10

Kyle Korver Atl - SG,SF

$7.10

Robin Lopez Por - C

$7.10

Zach Randolph Mem - PF,C

$7.00

Luol Deng Mia - SF,PF

$6.80

Brandon Jennings Det - PG

$5.80

Jose Calderon NY - PG

$5.70

Roy Hibbert Ind - C

$5.10

George Hill Ind - PG,SG

$4.60

Gerald Green Pho - SG,SF

$4.30

Darren Collison Sac - PG

$4.10

Greg Monroe Det - PF,C

$3.90

Andre Iguodala GS - SG,SF

$3.70

Arron Afflalo Den - SG,SF

$3.50

Spencer Hawes LAC - PF,C

$3.30

Tyreke Evans NO - SG,SF

$3.10

Joe Johnson Bkn - SG,SF

$3.00

Paul Pierce Was - SF,PF

$2.80

Jamal Crawford LAC - PG,SG

$2.40

Jonas Valanciunas Tor - C

$2.40

J.J. Redick LAC - SG

$2.30

Elfrid Payton Orl - PG

$2.20

Mario Chalmers Mia - PG

$2.20

Jeremy Lin LAL - PG,SG

$2.20

Manu Ginobili SA - SG,SF

$1.90

Tobias Harris Orl - SF,PF

$1.80

Tyson Chandler Dal - C

$1.80

Omer Asik NO - PF,C

$1.80

Eric Gordon NO - SG

$1.70

Andrew Bogut GS - C

$1.70

Jeff Green Bos - SG,SF

$1.70

John Henson Mil - PF,C

$1.70

Doug McDermott Chi - SF

$1.70

Danilo Gallinari Den - SF

$1.60

Brandon Knight Mil - PG,SG

$1.60

Taj Gibson Chi - PF,C

$1.60

Giannis Antetokounmpo Mil - SG,SF

$1.60

J.R. Smith NY - SG,SF

$1.60

Carlos Boozer LAL - PF,C

$1.60

Mike Dunleavy Chi - SG,SF

$1.60

Kevin Garnett Bkn - PF,C

$1.60

Patrick Beverley Hou - PG,SG

$1.50

Channing Frye Orl - PF,C

$1.50

Anderson Varejao Cle - PF,C

$1.50

Trey Burke Uta - PG

$1.50

Mason Plumlee Bkn - PF,C

$1.50

Nate Robinson Den - PG,SG

$1.50

Terrence Jones Hou - SF,PF

$1.40

Rodney Stuckey Ind - PG,SG

$1.40

Anthony Bennett Min - SF,PF

$1.40

Joel Embiid Phi - C

$1.40

Ersan Ilyasova Mil - SF,PF

$1.30

DeMarre Carroll Atl - SF,PF

$1.30

Dion Waiters Cle - SG

$1.30

Raymond Felton Dal - PG,SG

$1.30

O.J. Mayo Mil - PG,SG

$1.30

Josh McRoberts Mia - PF,C

$1.30

Jared Sullinger Bos - PF,C

$1.30

Julius Randle LAL - PF

$1.30

Nick Young LAL - SG,SF

$1.30

Reggie Jackson OKC - PG,SG

$1.30

Danny Green SA - SG,SF

$1.20

Dante Exum Uta - PG

$1.20

Enes Kanter Uta - C

$1.20

Markieff Morris Pho - PF,C

$1.20

Jodie Meeks Det - SG

$1.20

Evan Turner Ind - SG,SF

$1.20

Marcus Smart Bos - PG

$1.20

Terrence Ross Tor - SG,SF

$1.20

Andrea Bargnani NY - PF,C

$1.20

Corey Brewer Min - SG,SF

$1.10

Randy Foye Den - PG,SG

$1.10

Jordan Hill LAL - PF,C

$1.10

Amir Johnson Tor - PF,C

$1.10

Aaron Gordon Orl - PF

$1.10

Nene Hilario Was - PF,C

$1.10

Tristan Thompson Cle - PF,C

$1.10

Gorgui Dieng Min - C

$1.10

Steve Nash LAL - PG

$1.10

Avery Bradley Bos - PG,SG

$1.10

Miles Plumlee Pho - PF,C

$1.10

Tiago Splitter SA - C

$1.10

Tim Hardaway Jr. NY - SG

$1.10

Wilson Chandler Den - SG,SF

$1.00

Timofey Mozgov Den - C

$1.00

Kendall Marshall Mil - PG

$1.00

Alec Burks Uta - PG,SG

$1.00

JaVale McGee Den - C

$1.00

Samuel Dalembert NY - C

$1.00

Marco Belinelli SA - SG,SF

$1.00

P.J. Tucker Pho - SG,SF

$1.00

Ben McLemore Sac - SG

$1.00

Jarrett Jack Bkn - PG,SG

$1.00

Jameer Nelson Dal - PG

$1.00

Kirk Hinrich Chi - PG,SG

$1.00

Devin Harris Dal - PG,SG

$1.00

Wesley Johnson LAL - SG,SF

$1.00

Shaun Livingston GS - PG,SG

$1.00

Tony Wroten Phi - PG

$1.00

Shawn Marion Cle - SF,PF

$1.00

Solomon Hill Ind - SF

$1.00

Matt Barnes LAC - SF

$1.00

Draymond Green GS - SF

$1.00

Harrison Barnes GS - SF,PF

$1.00

Vince Carter Mem - SG,SF

$1.00

Amar'e Stoudemire NY - PF,C

$1.00

Nik Stauskas Sac - SG

$1.00

Iman Shumpert NY - SG,SF

$1.00

Kelly Olynyk Bos - C

$1.00

Nikola Mirotic Chi - SF,PF

$1.00

Lou Williams Tor - PG,SG

$1.00

Ray Allen Mia - SG

$1.00

Gerald Henderson Cha - SG,SF

$1.00

C.J. Miles Ind - SG,SF

$1.00

Cody Zeller Cha - PF,C

$1.00

Noah Vonleh Cha - PF

$1.00

Zach LaVine Min - PG

$1.00

Paul George Ind - SG,SF

$1.00

Brandon Bass Bos - PF,C

$1.00

Patty Mills SA - PG

$1.00

Andray Blatche Bkn - PF,C

$1.00

D.J. Augustin Det - PG

$1.00

Boris Diaw SA - PF,C

$1.00

Greivis Vasquez Tor - PG,SG

$1.00

Ramon Sessions Mil - PG,SG

$1.00

J.J. Hickson Den - PF,C

$1.00

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Cha - SF

$1.00

Steven Adams OKC - C

$1.00

Danny Granger Mia - SF

$1.00

Shabazz Napier Mia - PG

$1.00

Mo Williams Min - PG,SG

$0.00

Andrei Kirilenko Bkn - SF,PF

$0.00

Mirza Teletovic Bkn - SF,PF

$0.00

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Det - SG

$0.00

Khris Middleton Mil - SF,PF

$0.00

Jason Richardson Phi - SG,SF

$0.00

Tony Allen Mem - SG,SF

$0.00

Maurice Harkless Orl - SF

$0.00

Courtney Lee Mem - SG,SF

$0.00

Tayshaun Prince Mem - SF,PF

$0.00

Derrick Williams Sac - SF,PF

$0.00

C.J. McCollum Por - PG,SG

$0.00

Andre Miller Was - PG,SG

$0.00

Marvin Williams Cha - SF,PF

$0.00

Ish Smith Hou - PG

$0.00

Otto Porter Jr. Was - SF

$0.00

Kyle Singler Det - SG,SF

$0.00

Martell Webster Was - SG,SF

$0.00

Al-Farouq Aminu Dal - SF

$0.00

Brandan Wright Dal - PF,C

$0.00

Elton Brand Atl - PF,C

$0.00

Patrick Patterson Tor - PF,C

$0.00

Thabo Sefolosha Atl - SG,SF

$0.00

Marcus Morris Pho - PF

$0.00

Chris Andersen Mia - PF,C

$0.00

Dante Cunningham Min - PF

$0.00

Kosta Koufos Mem - PF,C

$0.00

James Anderson Phi - SG,SF

$0.00

Kris Humphries Was - PF,C

$0.00

Marcus Thornton Bos - SG

$0.00

Jordan Crawford GS - PG,SG

$0.00

Caron Butler Det - SF

$0.00

Brian Roberts Cha - PG,SG

$0.00

Richard Jefferson Dal - SF

$0.00

Pablo Prigioni NY - PG,SG

$0.00

Shane Battier Mia - SG,SF

$0.00

Jerryd Bayless Mil - PG,SG

$0.00

Kyle O'Quinn Orl - PF,C

$0.00

Jason Thompson Sac - PF,C

$0.00

Jared Dudley Mil - SG,SF

$0.00

Jeremy Lamb OKC - SG,SF

$0.00

Trevor Booker Uta - PF

$0.00

Mike Miller Cle - SG,SF

$0.00

Aaron Brooks Chi - PG

$0.00

E'Twaun Moore Orl - PG,SG

$0.00

Jae Crowder Dal - SF,PF

$0.00

There are guys under $3 who I wouldn't draft this season, but I found it more convenient to highlight the end-of-auction values. The players I've highlighted are just those which jumped out at me...it's not meant to be a comprehensive draft-day cheat-sheet. You should look it over and determine who you might target or avoid given these current auction prices. Here are some quick notes on players I highlighted (the context makes it clear if they were red or green):

  • John Wall's high turnovers (3.6 per game last season) take a heavy toll in 9-cat leagues. The same can be said, of course, for the other guys in the top-10 for TOs (Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, Michael Carter-Williams, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Eric Bledsoe and Rajon Rondo). Many 9-cat owners simply ignore turnovers on draft day. I prefer to de-emphasize them, rather than outright ignoring them, and it can’t hurt to at least be aware of the worst offenders.

  • James Harden is far and away the best fantasy SG to own (as shown last week) and his high-volume, high-percentage FT shooting is difficult to find outside of the early rounds.

  • Kawhi Leonard is 9-cat gold, and he's still unappreciated by most fantasy owners because his steady contributions across the board don't often jump out of the boxscore. He was a top-15 value in 9-cat last year and he's only getting better.

  • Goran Dragic is great, and it’s generally wise to target PGs in the early rounds, but I'm unwilling to pay a premium for him while Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe are both lurking around the Suns’ backcourt.

  • Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams present too much injury risk for me to spend $30+ on them. I didn't highlight Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade, but they too are very obvious risks.

  • If I were punting FT%, I'd take Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan over Dwight Howard every time. It's not even debatable. My only guess is that his 'name brand' recognition is driving up his price.

  • Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol both give you early-round upside at a reasonable price tag in the low $20-range.

  • I'd happily take Nerlens Noel or Jabari Parker on my fantasy squads this season, but I'm always leery of investing heavily in rookies in re-draft formats. Noel's 52 percent free throw shooting with Kentucky is another reason I'm not eager to draft him when there are centers like Tim Duncan, Nikola Vucevic and M. Gasol in the same price range.

  • Jrue Holiday has never been a top-40 value in 9-cat leagues, on a per-game or cumulative basis, and he hasn't played competitively since going down with a stress fracture in his leg last January. I'd rather take my chances with Ricky Rubio's flawed fantasy game.

  • Tony Parker rested all summer, which improves his outlook, but I still expect to see scattered precautionary DNPs (especially after the All-Star break). That in itself isn't a deal-breaker for me, but for a PG I can't stomach his lack of 3-pointers and steals.

  • Jeff Teague should benefit from Al Horford's return and another year of familiarity with coach Mike Budenholzer. He was a solid fourth-round value (9-cat) in just 32 minutes per game after the All-Star break last season.

  • Victor Oladipo, Derrick Favors and Kenneth Faried should be on everyone's list of breakout candidates.

  • Josh Smith's production has been on the decline for years. The arrival of Stan Van Gundy helps his outlook, but I'm shying away from him this year with Andre Drummond at center and Greg Monroe still mucking up Detroit's frontcourt rotation.

  • Trevor Ariza blew up for elite value alongside John Wall last year, but prior to that he'd never been more than a late-middle round value. There's no replacing Wall's assist-making ability, and it's hard to predict a comparable season from Ariza in Houston.

  • I like Lance Stephenson this season, but his 9-cat value is severely hampered by high turnovers, low FT percentages, and paltry defensive stats.

  • Arron Afflalo also suffers from a total lack of steals/blocks, and he rebounds poorly, but I'm most concerned about the threat to his playing time from Randy Foye. He barely made top-100 value in a featured role with the Magic last season (13.8 shots per game).

  • Kyle Korver has held steady top-50 value for two consecutive seasons. He'll lock up 3-pointers without really hurting you in any category, making him a perfect under-valued player in the late-middle rounds.

  • George Hill was a better 9-cat value than Brandon Jennings last season, and I expect him to take a big leap with more offensive responsibilities this year.

  • Tyreke Evans should start at SF all year for the Pelicans, making him a strong bet to return mid-round value after a poor 2013-14 season.

  • Jonas Valanciunas is a ridiculous value at under $3, John Henson has enough upside to be worth under $2, and the injury risk of both Andrew Bogut and Anderson Varejao isn't enough to prevent me from scooping them up at a sub-$2 discount (ditto for Nene, who can be had for $1).

  • The Rotoworld staff has been touting Terrence Jones, Markieff Morris and Draymond Green all summer long, but apparently most owners haven't received the memo.

  • DeMarre Carroll and Danny Green typically have subdued stat lines, which keeps them off most fantasy radars, but they are both solid mid-round values with late-round pricetags.

  • Jodie Meeks is a terrific value for just over a buck, and I love Terrence Ross as a flier in all formats this year -- he's got a guaranteed starting job, and will at the very least pour in enough 3-pointers to earn a fantasy-roster spot.

  • Gorgui Dieng's finish to the 2013-14 season was spectacular, and he's one big man I'm happy to tuck away on my bench -- Flip Saunders has vowed to find him more playing time, and he's one Nikola Pekovic injury away from being a must-own C.

  • Wes Johnson is reportedly favored to start over Nick Young for the Lakers, and he has the unique ability to average a 3-pointer, steal and block.

  • I don't love Alec Burks or P.J. Tucker, but I'll take them both at $1 each. If you need some dirt-cheap big men, you can probably scoop up Brandon Bass, Mirza Teletovic, Brandan Wright and Marcus Morris without much of a fight. Kyle O'Quinn may not be draftable, but he won't last a day on the waiver wire if Nikola Vucevic gets injured.

Good luck in your auction drafts, and again, send me any questions or comments on Twitter @Knaus_RW.