Dose: Predators and Prey

Well, now both the Canadian and American Thanksgiving festivities are behind us,* we can get past the feelings of bloat (and perhaps guilt over land greed/“Manifest Destiny,” if you think about the more sinister roots of the holiday) and move on to hockey.

(Although not before being suckered into all kinds of deals for electronics, clothes and other gifts, of course).

Anyway, there was only one game on last night, but the two teams involved are rather interesting cases, so I thought I’d look at a few players plus some larger trends for each team. It still might not be a long column, but hopefully I can give you a little food for thought while that tryptophan filters through your system.

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PREDATORS 1, OILERS 0 (OT)

-- The most glaring stat difference between these two teams is their records against Western Conference opponents so far in 2014-15. Nashville is the gold standard in the NHL in this regard, with an impressive 12-3-2 record against West teams. The Oilers are the exact opposite with an abysmal 0-11-2 mark against the West. I know I’ve cited Edmonton’s in-conference record a few times, but man, it’s still jarring and it’s the single easiest somewhat-less-than-obvious stat that tells the story about why this team’s perceived progress ultimately doesn’t mean much when they can’t convert (sometimes) respectable efforts to standings points.

-- Still, it's pretty stunning that Edmonton actually enjoys superior possession stats. The Oilers rank 12th in Score-Adjusted Fenwick (a proxy for possession in close games, basically) while Nashville's a somewhat disconcerting 18th.

-- One can point to a few reasons, but the shining beacon is that Pekka Rinne's been flat-out marvelous. He's on a five-game winning streak and has won nine out of his last 10. He's 15-3-1 with a dazzling .932 save percentage, 1.86 GAA and two shutouts.

If you handed out the Vezina Trophy on Nov. 28, he'd be the no-brainer choice. I've wondered aloud if he's worth $7 million. So far, he's been worth more than that.

-- Conversely, Edmonton's goaltending has been a big flop, though considering the Oilers' track record, it's a chicken-and-the-egg argument regarding whether that has as much to do with the netminders as it does with the system. (Every nice game by Devan Dubnyk in Arizona only intensifies such thought.)

Viktor Fasth is 2-5-2 with a .900 save percentage and 3.01 GAA. Ben Scrivens is 4-9-1 with an .887 save percentage and 3.35 GAA. These are just appalling numbers.

I know MS is a big concern and certainly makes his health unpredictable, but how in the world do the Oilers not claim Josh Harding? I feel like this team's made some baby steps toward competence, yet there's no use denying that the front office needs to be wiped clean, probably from Kevin Lowe on down.

-- Filip Forsberg scored the game's only goal, giving him 10 tallies and 23 points in 22 games while sporting a splendid plus-19 rating. He's likely to slow down, but maybe not as much as some think; his 15.4 shooting percentage is high, but not baldly outrageous.

-- One area of intrigue: Nashville's power play has been strangely awful. The Predators have converted on just nine of 70 power-play opportunities, good for a 24th-ranked 12.9 percent success rate. They've also allowed two shorthanded goals. Perhaps an improvement in special teams could help Nashville offset the almost inevitable drop-off in puck luck they're set to experience?

-- Mike Fisher returned from his lengthy injury hiatus last night, receiving 12:44 of ice time and probably inspiring a few half-hearted Carrie Underwood jokes (let's retire those, shall we?). Gabriel Bourque and Matt Cullen (upper body) weren't in the lineup on Thursday, so perhaps one or both of them might be the losers in his return. Nashville's forward group is rather crowded, which is great for the Predators - players can pick up for each other when slumps hit - but maybe not so great for fantasy owners.

***

There’s only so much one can say about a 1-0 game (overtime or not), so I’ll leave this at that. It should be interesting to see how these teams fare from this point. I wouldn’t be shocked if their results approach each other more going forward (less luck for Nashville, a little more for Edmonton), but it’s probably already too late for the Oilers.

Again.

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* - As a recent transplant to the Great White North, it’s still disorienting to celebrate Thanksgiving before Halloween.