Derek Carr's Breakout
The Texans and Browns both passed on Derek Carr in 2014 — in the second round. Houston started Brian Hoyer on Sunday. Cleveland, Josh McCown.
Carr? He was busy shredding the Jets’ previously imposing pass defense. Gang Green entered Week 8 allowing a 54.8 completion percentage and 5.6 yards per attempt, both league best marks. By the time Carr was done, he had completed 23-of-36 throws for 333 yards (9.25 YPA), four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He tallied 163 yards and three scores in his first 15 passes (10.8 YPA).
It was an eye-opening afternoon, but hardly the first from Carr this season. The sophomore starter is now the owner of a 105.7 QB rating, and 15:3 TD:INT total. He’s completing 65.5 percent of his throws, and averaging 7.82 yards every time he attempts a pass. They’re breakout numbers, ones I admittedly didn’t see coming.
Carr was praised for his toughness and decisionmaking as a rookie, but I focused on his 5.46 YPA. I’ve long found yards per attempt to be best representative of a quarterback’s overall playmaking ability. Carr’s first-year mark was an historically bad number, one that put him in tragic company. Here is the complete list of quarterbacks to manage a lower YPA than Carr’s 5.46 since 2001: Blaine Gabbert, Jimmy Clausen, Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bruce Gradkowski, Kyle Orton, Mark Brunell, A.J. Feeley, Ken Dorsey, Joey Harrington, Shane Matthews and Chris Weinke.
I didn’t think it was case closed, but if you had told me to wager on Carr’s future, I would have bet against him remaining the Raiders’ starter in 2018, let alone 2025. But then the Raiders drafted Amari Cooper, signed Michael Crabtree and made Latavius Murray their starting running back. Almost instantly, Carr transformed from a caretaker to a playmaker, shaking off a horrendous Week 1 to turn in back-to-back 300-yard performances. What’s followed hasn’t been perfect, but exceeded the expectations of all but the Raider-est of Raiders fans.
Without question, Carr has been not only the best quarterback from his draft class, but since the Luck/Wilson led crop of 2012. He’s a genuine signal calling prospect in a league turning out frightfully few of them. Just like I was overly harsh last season, perhaps I’m being too glowing now. It’s been known to happen in the #taeks industry. All I know is, Carr has left me no other choice seven games into his sophomore season. I see the light, and the Raiders see their long-awaited answer at quarterback.
Five Week 8 Negatives
Le’Veon Bell’s torn MCL. Bell’s dominance was one of the few things that had gone according to plan this fantasy season. Now a right knee injury has knocked him out for the second consecutive year. It’s a hammer blow for a Steelers team that had already endured four weeks without Ben Roethlisberger, and an irreplaceable loss for fantasy owners who made Bell their first-round pick even though he was facing a two-game suspension. If there’s any solace, it’s that Bell has one of the most clear-cut backup situations in the league. DeAngelo Williams is the guy, and will play an every-down role. If D-Will’s first 63 carries — where he’s averaged 4.92 yards — are any indication, he’ll be better than summer handcuffers had any right to expect. Regardless of whether or not you’re a Bell owner, Williams is this week’s top add.
Steve Smith Sr.’s torn Achilles’. Without a doubt, this was the worst moment of Week 8. Iced up through back and knee issues, Sr. was laying down the rules and regulations when his right leg simply gave way. In true Sr. fashion, he ran seven more yards before crumpling to the ground in pain. Even more irreplaceable for the Ravens than Bell is for the Steelers, Sr. has said his age-36 campaign will be his last. Although he will surely reconsider after going out in such inglorious fashion, Sunday is evidence of why Sr.’s original decision was sound. Coming back from a torn Achilles’ at age 37 would be almost impossible for a wideout. Regardless of what Smith does in 2016, there’s somewhere he should be in 2021: Canton.
Matt Forte’s MCL injury. Unlike Bell, Forte appears likely to return this season, but coach John Fox will be damned if he tells you when. At the very least, Forte can be ruled out for Week 9 against the Chargers, making rookie backup Jeremy Langford a must add in all formats of fantasy. A clearer idea of Forte’s return timeline should soon emerge, but it could take the national media a few days to get the scoop. Lord knows Fox isn’t going to give it to the locals, whom he treats as if they kidnapped his daughter.
Ryan Fitzpatrick’s left thumb injury. “FitzMagic” was injured after three throws, setting the stage for a blowout loss, and painting an ugly picture of Jets football without him. Geno Smith made a few plays in relief, but was his usual loose self with the ball, and completely overwhelmed as New York tried to rally late. Fitz’s injury also invited the Raiders to stack the box as full as they’d like, making life much more difficult for Chris Ivory. The Jets have been a great story thus far in 2015, but anything more than a 1-2 game absence for Fitz would just about pull the curtains down on their Wild Card hopes.
John Brown’s zero-snap day against the Browns. Sometimes Bruce Arians’ sole goal in life appears to be aggravating fantasy owners. Brown was officially “active” after every late-week signal pointed toward him sitting, but it ended up being purely ceremonial. Only a Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd or J.J. Nelson injury could have forced Brown and his bulky hamstrings into the game. As it is, Floyd and Fitz both had great days in Brown’s absence, and when he returns after the Cardinals’ Week 9 bye, it will be to a receiver corps with monstrous upside, but low predictability.
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Five Week 8 Positives
Drew Brees’ record-tying day. Brees’ seven-touchdown performance wasn’t a one-off afternoon, but the culmination of his continued improvement since missing his first ever game with injury as a Saint in Week 3. Since returning, Brees has completed 72.3 percent of his throws for 1,772 yards (8.16 YPA), 13 touchdowns and three picks in five starts. Even with the missed game, he’s once again on pace for 5,000 yards and 30-plus touchdowns. Making life without Jimmy Graham and Pierre Thomas look easy, Brees is back in the top five like he never left.
Peyton Manning’s 340-yard night against Green Bay’s top-five pass defense. Manning didn’t throw any touchdowns, but he averaged 11.72 yards per attempt, and had six completions gain at least 20 yards. Manning entered the evening with only one prior 300-yard effort, and zero YPAs of 8.00 or better. Manning still tossed some true wobblers, but at least for one game, his bye-week corrections paid off. We’ll see how “back” he truly is against the Colts’ on-the-brink defense in Week 9.
Ben Watson’s 9/147/1 afternoon. Drew Brees’ leading receiver on his record-breaking afternoon? His 34-year-old tight end, who now finds himself on pace for 76/944/6. Both the catches and yards would be new career highs. Watson is going to have some bust afternoons — he’s drawn more than five targets only twice — but he’s cleared 59 yards in three consecutive games, and had new career best efforts twice in three weeks. As was the case with Gary Barnidge, TE1 status is happening. Roll with it.
Stefon Diggs’ latest big day. Diggs has played four NFL games. He’s caught at least six passes for 87 yards in all four of them. Diggs’ four-week line extrapolates to 100/1,676/8 over a full season. Although Diggs’ yardage rate will undoubtedly cool, he’s now clearly the Vikings’ No. 1 receiver, and an every-week WR2 in fantasy. The Rams are a stingy matchup for Week 9, but Diggs has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Alshon Jeffery’s 10-catch performance. In three healthy games this season, Jeffery has drawn 11, 11 and 15 looks. He’s yet to be held below 78 yards, and has scored in 2-of-3 contests. Rapidly emerging as an alpha WR1, Jeffery has a delectable Week 9 matchup in the Chargers’ collapsing defense. He’s shaping up as a classic “better late than never” fantasy option for owners who took the early-round plunge.
Questions
1. Are you sure Jim Caldwell couldn’t get used to the London weather?
2. Did the 49ers hire Jim Tomsula off a stock photo website?
3. Does anything make you as happy as running does for Alex Smith?
Early Waiver Look (Players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Jeremy Langford, Antonio Andrews, Orleans Darkwa, Joique Bell, Mike Davis
WR: Kamar Aiken, Rueben Randle, Marvin Jones, Ted Ginn, Cecil Shorts, Marquess Wilson
TE: Eric Ebron, Crockett Gillmore, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Richard Rodgers, Heath Miller, Vernon Davis
Stats of the Week
From Rotoworld’s Graham Barfield: Todd Gurley is on pace for 301/1,841/10 even though he was inactive for Weeks 1 and 2, and held to nine yards on six carries in his Week 3 debut. The 1,841 yards would break Eric Dickerson's rookie rushing record (1,808) from 1983.
Colin Kaepernick’s 3.95 YPA was … .45 better than Aaron Rodgers’ against the Broncos. Rodgers’ 77 yards were 65 fewer than he had ever managed in a healthy start. Denver’s defense is for real, as are Green Bay’s concerns at wide receiver.
You already knew Randall Cobb had just 16 catches for 132 yards over his past four games, but per Rich Hribar, the slump has also included zero red zone targets.
Ben Watson has as many catches as Jimmy Graham, and more catches and touchdowns.
Ken Whisenhunt is 4-31 over his past 35 games.
Dorial Green-Beckham leads Whiz’s Titans in yards per catch, but is tied for seventh in targets. Amongst the players with more looks is Anthony Fasano.
Russell Wilson has nine total touchdowns in eight starts. Through the air, 18 quarterbacks have produced more scores.
Devonta Freeman has 170 more yards from scrimmage than any other player in the league.
Julio Jones leads the league with 892 receiving yards, which is 903 more than Ereck Flowers, who brings up the rear with -11.
24 of Shane Vereen’s 30 catches have come in three games. He’s sprinkled five grabs across his other six.
Awards Section
Week 8 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Drew Brees, RB Todd Gurley, RB Dion Lewis, WR Odell Beckham, WR Julian Edelman, WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Ben Watson
The This Is Your Life Award: Geno Smith managing the Jets’ final drive like time is an indefinite property for homo sapiens.
The This Is Your Life Award II: Colin Kaepernick failing to find Torrey Smith for what would have been a 97-yard touchdown.
The Budget Alex Smith Award: Matt Cassel.
Ex-Brown of the Week Award: Dion Lewis.
Gary Barnidge Watch
Still the best player in the NFL.
