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Super Bowl XLIX could make TV history thanks to deflate-gate, star power

PHOENIX – For 32 years, the NFL has waited for television's celestial alignment to repeat itself in the Super Bowl. But Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers came and went. Bill Parcells and the New York Giants faded away. Jimmy Johnson and the Dallas Cowboys divorced. Even Bill Belichick and Tom Brady couldn't make it happen in five previous tries.

But this year might be as close as the league has gotten to the holy grail: a game that captures both the largest TV viewership and ratings in Super Bowl history.

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The first half of that elusive double – total viewership – has seen a record set four out of the last five years. Last year hit a new high of 112.2 million viewers. The latter half – ratings (also known as the total percentage of households with a television) – hasn't been snapped since 1982, when CBS reeled in 49.1 percent. By comparison, last year's Super Bowl set the viewership record but "only" captured 46.7 percent of households.

Bottom line: setting both viewership and ratings records is a significant rarity, like winning the Triple Crown in Major League Baseball or thoroughbred racing.

'Deflate-gate' has dominated Super Bowl week, and could lead to a TV ratings record. (NFL)
'Deflate-gate' has dominated Super Bowl week, and could lead to a TV ratings record. (NFL)

The last man who presided over the feat – former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson – says it's a daunting accomplishment. But in a year like this, with a seemingly perfect maelstrom of Super Bowl stars and pre-game controversy, he allows that it's not impossible.

"You never use the word 'never' in our business, but there have been some pretty dramatic Super Bowls since 1982," said Pilson, who was the head of CBS Sports when Montana and the 49ers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl XVI. "None of them have eclipsed that record. I don't think it's insurmountable, but it's going to be hard to exceed."

NBC producer Fred Gaudelli – who handles the network's Super Bowl and Sunday Night Football lineup – has already gone on the record saying there is an expectation that a new viewership record will be set on Sunday. To accomplish that, NBC will have to draw more than 112.2 million total viewers. But given the matchup and star power of the Patriots and defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, even Pilson says a new viewership record is possible.

Pilson's reasoning?

• The matchup itself is attractive

The Patriots and Seahawks are largely considered to be the two best teams in their respective conferences. Seattle is also in a situation to accomplish the rare back-to-back titles, whereas the Patriots are chasing their fourth Super Bowl ring under Belichick and Brady. If one of the participants had been a less-dominant team, it would have diminished the historic nature of the matchup.

• The individual profiles are intriguing

Brady is Brady – iconic both on the field and off. Marshawn Lynch may be the league's best running back, and also more of a household and commercial name because of his refusal to speak to the media. Russell Wilson is a newly minted star whose commercial presence has grown considerably this season. Rob Gronkowski is the league's best tight end and has a strong female fan following. Richard Sherman is arguably the league's best cornerback and doesn't know how to be boring in an interview. And Belichick is, as Pilson put it, "the coach everyone loves to hate." He continued: "You have [Tom] Brady and Marshawn Lynch and the defense from Seattle. Both teams have players that have national significance. Russell Wilson, [Rob] Gronkowski, [Richard] Sherman. There are a lot of players there that the public is familiar with aside from Brady."

• The outside controversy

For the first time in a long time, there has been a spate of controversy surrounding a Super Bowl team. And it has stretched beyond average football fans. Even the most casual sports fans have heard of deflate-gate. And it involves Belichick, Brady and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell – three men who were already wildly popular (or unpopular) amongst NFL fans. Even Patriots owner Robert Kraft did some public billionaire-style trash talking this week.

Seahawks CB Richard Sherman talks to the media during a press conference on Thursday. (AP)
Seahawks CB Richard Sherman talks to the media during a press conference on Thursday. (AP)

With all of that in mind, Pilson said he thinks a new total viewership record is attainable. Whether that translates into the harder-to-capture household ratings record remains to be seen.

"In 1982, basically there were only three choices if you were going to watch television on a Sunday afternoon," Pilson said. "Now you have literally thousands of choices in terms of programming."

Which means plenty of opportunities for TVs to be tuned to something else. And that doesn't take into account other eyeball magnets like the Internet and social media. To draw more than 49.1 percent of households now, Pilson says it's going to take more than controversy. In other words, just because your mother has heard of deflate-gate doesn't mean she's going to watch the Super Bowl to see what all the fuss is about.

"The question is," Pilson said, "is your mom going to watch a movie that night, or is she going to watch the Super Bowl?"

So what would it take?

"I think what would at least threaten the all-time ratings number would be a back-and-forth game, where neither team gets more than 7 to 10 points ahead and that there is a fair amount of scoring," Pilson said. "I think we'd need something like a 35-32 game that goes right down to a last-second field goal or a Hail Mary pass for a touchdown."

Is it likely? The last 32 years say no. But there's always a chance, and Sunday might be as close as the NFL gets to TV perfection.