Daily Fantasy Review
Daily fantasy leagues are a booming part of the sports landscape, and they lend themselves to clear-cut quantification. Today I'll use the FanDuel scoring system to take a look back at the 2013-14 season and answer some questions I had while setting my lineups this afternoon. For instance, which teams allowed the most 'fantasy points' to their opponents? Which player positions were the most valuable, and which were the scarcest?
And here’s the FanDuel scoring system:
Points: 1.0
Rebounds: 1.2
Assists: 1.5
Steals: 2.0
Blocks: 2.0
Turnovers: -1.0
Owners must use a $60k 'salary cap' to build the best possible nine-player lineup, with the following position requirements: PG, PG, SG, SG, SF, SF, PF, PF, C
Question #1: What does the dispersion of scoring look like? This is the broadest possible look at the top 300 players from the 2013-14 season, showing a predictable concentration of value in the top-50 and a slow but steady decline through picks 100-300.
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Question #2: What does the scoring breakdown among the top-200 players look like?
As this shows, scoring is easily the most dominant factor in FanDuel, with blocks coming in at a paltry 3.9% of total 'fantasy points' accrued. Points were followed by rebounds (21.7%) in importance, so it's little surprise that the top four FanDuel options last season were Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, LeBron James and DeMarcus Cousins. Targeting lenient defenses is critical (more on that later) and fantasy owners should also keep an eye on which teams allow the most rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. That type of information is readily available on a dozen different websites including NBA.com.
Question #3 & #4: Narrowing the focus to the top-200 players, how many of them were PGs, SGs, SFs, PFs or Cs? And how many FanDuel points did each position-type average?
Top-200 FanDuel Values (2013-14), by Positions
Position | # of players | Average FanDuel 'points' per game |
PG | 50 | 30.83 |
SG | 47 | 27.43 |
SF | 25 | 30.03 |
PF | 44 | 29.81 |
C | 34 | 30.15 |
This shows that small forwards were conspicuously scarce in FanDuel leagues, especially since each owner was required to start two. With so little depth at the position, it's essential to figure out which players are up against lenient defenses. A mediocre SF against the Lakers, Wolves or Nuggets could be a better value than a typically excellent SF who is matched up with the Bulls or Grizzlies. Centers were the most plentiful position in the top-200, relatively speaking, since each team only requires one 'C' in their lineup. I was mildly surprised to see so many shooting guards, but SG was the one position with a drastically lower average score. There were 47 SGs in the top-200, in other words, but only six were in the top-50: James Harden, Monta Ellis, DeMar DeRozan, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Gordon Hayward.
Question #5: How many players did each NBA team contribute to the top-200?
Team | # of top-200 players |
Atlanta | 6 |
Boston | 7 |
Brooklyn | 7 |
Charlotte | 4 |
Chicago | 8 |
Cleveland | 7 |
Dallas | 7 |
Denver | 8 |
Detroit | 7 |
Golden State | 10 |
Houston | 7 |
Indiana | 7 |
L.A.Clippers | 8 |
L.A.Lakers | 10 |
Memphis | 5 |
Miami | 5 |
Milwaukee | 9 |
Minnesota | 5 |
New Orleans | 8 |
New York | 6 |
Oklahoma City | 5 |
Orlando | 6 |
Philadelphia | 4 |
Phoenix | 8 |
Portland | 6 |
Sacramento | 4 |
San Antonio | 8 |
Toronto | 7 |
Utah | 6 |
Washington | 5 |
The Warriors and Lakers were the only teams with 10 players who made the cut, with no other teams having more than eight players in the top-200. The teams with five or fewer players were the Heat, Grizzlies, Bobcats, Timberwolves, Thunder, 76ers, Kings and Wizards. I'm not quite sure what the common thread is there, as those teams ranged from fastest to slowest pace, highest to lowest offensive efficiency, etc. The Sixers are particularly surprising, as they had a revolving door of players and (as we'll see) yielded the most FanDuel points of any team to their opponents.
Question #6: Matchups are an essential part of constructing daily fantasy lineups. How many 'fantasy points' did each team allow to their opponents per game?
Philadelphia | 253.1 |
LA Lakers | 248.8 |
Denver | 234.9 |
Minnesota | 234.7 |
Detroit | 233.5 |
Milwaukee | 229.3 |
Cleveland | 228.7 |
Houston | 228.2 |
Sacramento | 228.1 |
Atlanta | 228.0 |
Orlando | 227.1 |
New Orleans | 226.4 |
Dallas | 224.6 |
LA Clippers | 224.1 |
Utah | 222.9 |
Boston | 222.1 |
Phoenix | 222.1 |
Washington | 221.9 |
Golden State | 220.9 |
Brooklyn | 220.5 |
Portland | 220.2 |
Oklahoma City | 219.7 |
San Antonio | 216.7 |
Toronto | 216.2 |
Charlotte | 216.2 |
Miami | 215.9 |
New York | 212.6 |
Chicago | 211.7 |
Memphis | 209.5 |
Indiana | 206.4 |
Inefficient defenses and fast-paced offenses are a theme among the teams that allowed the most FanDuel points, and vice versa for the stingiest teams. That said, fantasy owners absolutely must look deeper into how each team is performing vs. a specific position. The Heat gave up the 5th-fewest points overall last season, for instance, but they were routinely torched by opposing centers due to their undersized frontcourt. RotoGrinders.com has a terrific tool that addresses this need...click here to check out their "NBA Defense vs. Position" tool.
Question #7: Where can I dig deeper?
The RotoGrinders crew is pumping out a ton of content on Rotoworld this season, be sure to check that out. You can also follow the Rotoworld Daily account on Twitter for live updates, column links and much more.
The next page contains a list of the top-200 players in FanDuel last year, including how many 'fantasy points' they averaged per game.
Top-200 FanDuel players (per game) for 2013-14
Name | Per-game FanDuel 'Points' |
Kevin Durant | 56.63 |
Kevin Love | 52.74 |
LeBron James | 52.27 |
DeMarcus Cousins | 50.32 |
Stephen Curry | 49.37 |
Carmelo Anthony | 48.23 |
Chris Paul | 47.78 |
James Harden | 47.75 |
Blake Griffin | 47.63 |
Russell Westbrook | 47.02 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | 46.01 |
John Wall | 45.55 |
Anthony Davis | 45.14 |
Dwight Howard | 44.19 |
Al Jefferson | 43.74 |
Paul George | 42.27 |
Joakim Noah | 42.12 |
Michael Carter-Williams | 42.08 |
Ty Lawson | 41.65 |
Paul Millsap | 40.91 |
Kyrie Irving | 40.71 |
Kyle Lowry | 40.57 |
Pau Gasol | 40.29 |
Al Horford | 39.68 |
Monta Ellis | 39.18 |
Goran Dragic | 39.10 |
Isaiah Thomas | 39.07 |
Rajon Rondo | 39.03 |
DeMar DeRozan | 38.94 |
Eric Bledsoe | 38.72 |
Rudy Gay | 38.64 |
Dwyane Wade | 38.37 |
Tim Duncan | 38.34 |
Jrue Holiday | 38.25 |
Damian Lillard | 37.70 |
Dirk Nowitzki | 37.62 |
Josh Smith | 37.60 |
Zach Randolph | 37.51 |
Kemba Walker | 37.42 |
Andre Drummond | 37.11 |
David Lee | 36.96 |
Kobe Bryant | 36.87 |
Gordon Hayward | 36.74 |
DeAndre Jordan | 36.50 |
Brandon Jennings | 36.00 |
Nikola Vucevic | 35.86 |
Thaddeus Young | 35.85 |
Brook Lopez | 35.55 |
Nicolas Batum | 35.43 |
Jeff Teague | 35.30 |
Mike Conley | 35.19 |
Serge Ibaka | 35.11 |
Marc Gasol | 35.11 |
Ricky Rubio | 35.03 |
Greg Monroe | 34.88 |
Brandon Knight | 34.51 |
Chandler Parsons | 34.35 |
Lance Stephenson | 33.59 |
Spencer Hawes | 33.18 |
Tyreke Evans | 33.04 |
Nikola Pekovic | 32.79 |
Marcin Gortat | 32.66 |
Derrick Favors | 32.41 |
Victor Oladipo | 32.24 |
Deron Williams | 32.18 |
Nene Hilario | 31.65 |
Tony Parker | 31.51 |
Chris Bosh | 31.38 |
Luol Deng | 31.34 |
David West | 31.32 |
Ryan Anderson | 31.18 |
Trevor Ariza | 31.01 |
Kenneth Faried | 30.92 |
Derrick Rose | 30.79 |
Bradley Beal | 30.78 |
Jameer Nelson | 30.75 |
Arron Afflalo | 30.66 |
Jamal Crawford | 30.19 |
Carlos Boozer | 30.02 |
Klay Thompson | 29.82 |
JJ Hickson | 29.57 |
Jeff Green | 29.49 |
Kawhi Leonard | 29.47 |
Kendall Marshall | 29.36 |
Jimmy Butler | 29.29 |
Jared Sullinger | 29.29 |
Evan Turner | 29.02 |
Kevin Martin | 29.02 |
Reggie Jackson | 28.44 |
Tobias Harris | 28.41 |
Taj Gibson | 28.40 |
Markieff Morris | 28.37 |
Andrew Bogut | 28.33 |
Dion Waiters | 28.23 |
Eric Gordon | 28.19 |
John Henson | 28.18 |
Trey Burke | 28.08 |
Paul Pierce | 27.75 |
Wesley Matthews | 27.75 |
Anderson Varejao | 27.67 |
Robin Lopez | 27.66 |
JR Smith | 27.47 |
Roy Hibbert | 27.45 |
Tristan Thompson | 27.27 |
Terrence Jones | 27.11 |
Jeremy Lin | 27.06 |
Jonas Valanciunas | 26.97 |
Manu Ginobili | 26.95 |
Raymond Felton | 26.94 |
Joe Johnson | 26.92 |
Tony Wroten | 26.81 |
Tyson Chandler | 26.77 |
Mario Chalmers | 26.58 |
Gerald Green | 26.55 |
Nick Young | 26.51 |
Andre Iguodala | 26.35 |
Randy Foye | 26.34 |
Gerald Henderson | 26.34 |
Enes Kanter | 26.26 |
Alec Burks | 26.03 |
Wilson Chandler | 25.85 |
Jodie Meeks | 25.84 |
Amir Johnson | 25.82 |
Andrea Bargnani | 25.76 |
Avery Bradley | 25.56 |
Shawn Marion | 25.29 |
DJ Augustin | 25.25 |
Kyle Korver | 25.22 |
DeMarre Carroll | 25.09 |
Jordan Farmar | 25.03 |
Andray Blatche | 24.56 |
Ramon Sessions | 24.54 |
Jose Calderon | 24.49 |
PJ Tucker | 24.37 |
Josh McRoberts | 24.35 |
Chris Kaman | 24.15 |
Darren Collison | 24.13 |
JJ Redick | 24.09 |
Mike Dunleavy | 23.78 |
Vince Carter | 23.78 |
George Hill | 23.76 |
Larry Sanders | 23.76 |
Ersan Ilyasova | 23.73 |
Khris Middleton | 23.71 |
Corey Brewer | 23.65 |
Brandon Bass | 23.45 |
Jordan Hill | 23.36 |
Rodney Stuckey | 23.23 |
Patrick Beverley | 23.23 |
Miles Plumlee | 23.16 |
Channing Frye | 23.06 |
Zaza Pachulia | 23.05 |
Timofey Mozgov | 22.84 |
Steve Blake | 22.82 |
Kirk Hinrich | 22.70 |
Jarrett Jack | 22.53 |
Mo Williams | 22.50 |
Matt Barnes | 22.47 |
Wes Johnson | 21.96 |
Jordan Crawford | 21.84 |
Amare Stoudemire | 21.82 |
Tony Allen | 21.70 |
Boris Diaw | 21.68 |
Shaun Livingston | 21.64 |
Jason Smith | 21.60 |
Lou Williams | 21.31 |
James Anderson | 21.29 |
OJ Mayo | 21.22 |
Tiago Splitter | 21.18 |
Kevin Garnett | 21.10 |
Andrew Bynum | 21.02 |
Glen Davis | 21.00 |
Steve Nash | 20.99 |
Caron Butler | 20.94 |
Greivis Vasquez | 20.89 |
Al-Farouq Aminu | 20.83 |
Marco Belinelli | 20.75 |
Kris Humphries | 20.56 |
Kelly Olynyk | 20.55 |
Patrick Patterson | 20.48 |
Marvin Williams | 20.36 |
Draymond Green | 20.35 |
Danny Green | 20.26 |
Devin Harris | 20.08 |
Will Bynum | 20.05 |
Samuel Dalembert | 19.94 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 19.75 |
Harrison Barnes | 19.73 |
Aaron Brooks | 19.58 |
Nate Robinson | 19.55 |
James Johnson | 19.49 |
Omer Asik | 19.42 |
Terrence Ross | 19.38 |
Marcus Morris | 19.34 |
Brian Roberts | 19.18 |
Jason Thompson | 19.13 |
Kyle O'Quinn | 19.06 |
Jermaine O'neal | 19.02 |
Ray Allen | 18.76 |
Kyle Singler | 18.75 |
This is the final 'Numbers Game' column, at least for a while, as I'll be writing a new column every Wednesday beginning next week. I'm still pondering the topic/theme, so send me a note on Twitter or via email if you have any suggestions!