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Closing Time: Is Matt Bush the answer in Texas?

Is Matt Bush ready for his close up?
Is Matt Bush ready for his close up?

A decade ago, Matt Bush wasn’t a pitcher. A few years ago, he wasn’t in baseball — he was in prison.

And at some point this week, Bush might become the new closer — or at least the temporary one — for the Texas Rangers. The clean-and-sober relief pitcher has become an important part of a struggling bullpen.

I’m not going to discuss Bush’s bizarre and tragic personal history at length; if you want to delve into that, you know how to do an Internet search. Suffice to say, he’s made some glaring mistakes, dealt with personal demons, paid his debt to society. He might be on his last chance, at age 31, with the Rangers. But if he’s finally turned his life around for good, a major opportunity could be coming his way.

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Sam Dyson, the incumbent Texas closer, can’t get out of his own way right now. He had his third meltdown (and second blown save) in Tuesday’s loss at Anaheim, coughing up three runs in the ninth. A home run to Danny Espinosa started the trouble; eventually, clutch hits from Mike Trout and Albert Pujols tied the score. Extra kudos to Trout, who spit on a couple of borderline two-strike pitches — an inch or two from ending the game — before lacing a double the other way.

The Angels closed matters in the tenth, scoring against Jeremy Jeffress. Mike Scioscia, ever the bunt zealot, called for the game-winning squeeze play.

Generally teams don’t want to react to a bad week from any player, even a closer, but Dyson’s numbers are a nightmare. Somehow, in just three innings, he’s given up 11 hits and 11 runs, with two homers. He’s walked three batters, struck out two. The ERA sits at 33.00, the WHIP at 4.67.

Some will flash the “unlucky” disclaimer for Dyson, but let’s not completely fall for that. Anyone with an outlier ERA, good or bad, is going to have outlier luck stats. He’s made a lot of the bad luck — his ground-ball rate has fallen by 24 percent, and batters are hitting a line drive 29 percent of the time. Too many pitches are screaming out “hit me.” While we’re talking about a tiny sample, the magnitude of the sample might carry signature significance.

Managers are in a no-win situation when it comes to discussing these types of losses; Jeff Banister knows better than to make an official role announcement while the wound is still fresh. For what it’s worth, here’s what he told the team’s official site:

“We’ve been evaluating it from day one and considering all our options,” Banister said. “We can’t continue to lose ballgames in this manner. We’ll look at all our options and see which way we go. Sam is searching to find it. We feel when Sam has good tempo and rhythm and sinking life, he’s a quality pitcher for us out of the back end.”

Bush has been the team’s primary set-up man this year — sometimes that leads us to the next closing option, sometimes not. He earned a key role in the bullpen last year, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.941 WHIP over 61.2 innings. He misses more bats than Dyson; we like that in a closer. And heck, maybe Dyson’s ground-ball tilt — whenever it returns — would make more sense for a meandering, fireman role.

Jeffress can’t be completely discounted; remember, he was Milwaukee’s closer last year, ringing up 27 saves before his trade to Texas. But the context clues point to Bush, if the Rangers actually decide to do anything.

If you need to make a Hail Mary stab at saves, consider Jose Leclerc, who’s been sharp through 3.2 innings (1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K). But also keep in mind he’s just 23, and he couldn’t throw strikes consistently last year (15 IP, 13 BB). I suspect he’s a fallback option, should everything fall apart.

Texas made early closing changes in 2015 and 2016, turning the page after a month or so. Even if Dyson isn’t out of a job at present, this isn’t a team that waits forever. Bush is currently owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues. Do what you need to do.

Lucas Duda, back in play
Lucas Duda, back in play

• When it comes to the 2017 Mets offense, I’m on record as a skeptic. But no matter where you stand, we had to admire the laser show New York dropped at Philadelphia on Tuesday.

The Terry Collins Crew collected 14 runs and 20 hits in the laugher, including a ridiculous seven homers. Yoenis Cespedes cranked three, Lucas Duda hit a pair (look where his first landed), and Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis d’Arnaud also took a trot.

Duda could be the key to this lineup, someone who moves the needle from ordinary to impactful. A back problem wrecked most of his 2016 season, and he wasn’t fully healthy in the spring, either. But he’s off to a zippy .333/.429/.792 start, with three homers.

Let’s keep Tuesday’s barrage in perspective — the Mets picked on some terrible pitching. Clay Buchholz (2.1 IP, 6 R) hit the DL after the game, while Adam Morgan (4 HR) was kicked to the minors. Joey Rodriguez has a 6.00 ERA in his brief career. Jeanmar Gomez lost his closer gig in 15 seconds.

But maybe it’s a good time to grab Duda anyway, see where the story goes. He’s owned in a mere 10 percent of Yahoo leagues.

• I don’t think this spring is going to end well for Byron Buxton. He struck out three more times Tuesday, dropping his average to .069. He’s whiffed 17 times, walked just once. He’s stuck on two hits, no homers, no bags.

Buxton’s terrific defense is one way to hold his position, but at some point the team could decide Buxton needs confidence-building in the minors. He still has two options remaining.

Jonathan Villar is the National League’s strikeout king, sitting on a .143/.167/.343 start. One walk, 15 strikeouts. At least he’s hit a couple of homers, swiped a bag; category juice is probably here for good. But Villar’s .285 average from last year never felt repeatable; his career mark of .257 is more realistic, and I’d argue a bigger collapse is possible. Tread carefully, treaders.

Walk and strikeout rates stabilize quicker than some other stats, so it’s always a good idea to monitor them closely. Three players off to fast starts — Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, and Matt Holliday — currently have more walks than strikeouts. Minnesota catcher Jason Castro has seven walks against just one strikeout, validating his opening kick. And Lorenzo Cain probably deserves a better average than .227, given he’s walked nine times against six strikeouts. At least Cain’s OBP is zesty (.452), and he’s stolen three bases.