Chiefs Fantasy Preview

Chiefs Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 28th (493)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 16th (420)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 29th (962)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 17th (5.3)

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Alex Smith
RB: Jamaal Charles
WR: Jeremy Maclin
WR: Albert Wilson
WR: Jason Avant
TE: Travis Kelce
LT: Eric Fisher
LG: Ben Grubbs
C: Eric Kush
RG: Paul Fanaika
RT: Jeff Allen

Passing Game Outlook

Alex Smith has spent two seasons in Andy Reid's offense, finishing 14th and 18th in fantasy quarterback scoring and 14th and 25th in points per game. Smith is the most risk-averse passer in football, completing 62.9% of his throws in that two-year span but averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt. Only 24 of Smith's 464 pass attempts last season traveled 20-plus yards downfield, the lowest percentage (5.2%) in the NFL by a wide margin. Smith's steadiness and job security make him a worthy QB2 in best-ball leagues, but severely cap his week-to-week re-draft upside. The Chiefs reportedly placed an emphasis on vertical passing at spring practices, but won't suddenly become a downfield offense. Smith is too often hesitant to pull the trigger on what he deems difficult throws. The Chiefs must count on new $55 million receiver Jeremy Maclin and potentially dominant third-year TE Travis Kelce to elevate their passing game. Smith is the kind of quarterback who must be elevated by his teammates. He is too limited to elevate them.

Jeremy Maclin entered 2014 with an annual average of 65 receptions, 863 yards, and 6.5 TDs across four healthy NFL seasons. Spending all four with Andy Reid, Maclin never topped 70 catches or hit 1,000 yards. Maclin proceeded to explode as the go-to receiving option in Chip Kelly's high-volume offense, posting career bests in catches (85), yards (1,318), and scores (10). Maclin's numbers were far better with bigger-armed Nick Foles than inside-the-numbers passer Mark Sanchez, and -- while Smith is better -- his passing approach is more similar to Sanchez's. The 2014 Eagles' wide receivers combined to score 21 touchdowns; the 2014 Chiefs' wideouts scored zero. Perhaps most concerning is the sheer play volume Maclin will lose going from Philly to Kansas City; last year's Eagles ranked No. 1 in offensive snaps and No. 5 in pass attempts, while the Chiefs were 29th and 28th. Maclin's talent was badly needed in Kansas City, and I do expect him to continue to be a fantasy asset, but he won't be a WR1 anymore. A 75-reception, 1,000-yard, six-touchdown season is probably most realistic. Those numbers would have made Maclin a low-end WR2 last year.

Receiver jobs will be up for grabs behind Maclin, with promising sophomore Albert Wilson, third-round pick Chris Conley, 32-year-old journeyman Jason Avant, and converted tailback De'Anthony Thomas all vying for snaps. It's possible that the foursome will end up in a value-draining rotation based upon game plans and defensive matchups. Conley is big and freakishly athletic, and offers the highest long-term ceiling. Avant and Thomas are slot-receiver types. The most intriguing for 2015 may be Wilson, who at 5-foot-9, 202 is built like a slot receiver but runs 4.43 and spent more time outside as a rookie. Wilson emerged as an offensive regular in the final month of last year, playing 74.8% of the Chiefs' snaps and posting receiving lines of 4-53, 3-69, and 5-87 before goose egging in the season finale with Chase Daniel at quarterback.

Despite playing behind Anthony Fasano most of last year, Travis Kelce finished what amounted to his rookie NFL season as the fantasy TE8, leading all tight ends in yards after catch and catch rate (82.7%) among tight ends with at least 25 targets, per PFF's charting. Kelce was a slightly frustrating, low-end TE1 for the initial nine games as the Chiefs limited his snaps coming off microfracture surgery. "Zeus" was promoted to a near-full-time player beginning in Week 11, after which he was outscored by only Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, and Coby Fleener over the final five weeks. Fasano's departure locks Kelce into a featured role, though the addition of Jeremy Maclin could render Kelce a 1B option in a low-volume passing attack. Kelce is a huge talent, but he does face some obstacles. Andy Reid's offenses do not historically force feed targets to a specific player, and Alex Smith consistently balks at tight-window throws. I'm on board with Kelce at his mid-fifth-round ADP, but fear he'll creep into round four by early fall.

Running Game Outlook

Jamaal Charles has finished as a top-eight fantasy running back in four of his last five seasons, and as an RB1 in five of the last six. Durable despite his smallish stature (5'11/204), Charles has played in at least 15 games in six of his seven NFL seasons. Ankle, foot, and knee injuries did cost Charles some effectiveness last year, and -- albeit in a small sample -- he appeared out of gas down the stretch, failing to top 13 carries in any of Kansas City's final five games and averaging 3.97 yards per carry over the final three. Charles still posted a 5.01 YPC clip for the season and scored 14 all-purpose touchdowns. One surprise was Charles' diminished use in the Chiefs' passing game; his targets dipped from 104 in 2013 to 59 last year. Andy Reid's history of heavily utilizing backs like Charles, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy in the passing game suggests Charles' targets and receptions will most likely rebound. With Le'Veon Bell opening the season on suspension, a strong case can be made for Charles as this year's No. 1 overall fantasy pick. Charles is still in his prime at age 28 and has taken exceptional care of his body.

The Chiefs could never quite incorporate Knile Davis as an every-week complement to Jamaal Charles, but Davis' 2014 role increased anyway due to Charles' nagging injuries. Davis had at least nine carries in seven games and was an early-season fantasy beast with Charles on the shelf, posting rushing lines of 22-79-2, 32-132-1, and 16-107 in Weeks 2-4. A "rhythm back" who's less effective in a change-of-pace role, Davis tends to play better when he gets fed more touches over the course of a game. Davis is unlikely to offer stable flex value if Charles stays healthy in 2015, but will be sprinkled in here and there. Davis could be a top-ten fantasy running back if Charles missed time. Although Davis has delivered from a fantasy standpoint in his past opportunities, I'm not sure the Chiefs see him as a "successor" to Charles. Davis has managed 3.46 YPC on 204 career carries and has significant limitations in the passing game.

Vegas Win Total

The Chiefs' Vegas Win Total is 8.5, a conservative projection for a team that's gone 11-5 and 9-7 in two seasons under Andy Reid and will trot out its best pass-catcher corps of Reid's tenure while returning several key components from last year's injury-ravaged defense. Jamaal Charles is a truly Canton-caliber player, while Knile Davis is more-than-capable insurance for a run-first team. The secondary looks strong on paper, with or without SS Eric Berry (lymphoma). The offensive line is concerning, but GM John Dorsey was aggressive about revamping it this offseason. On paper, the Chiefs' schedule sets up for a slow start followed by a fast finish. Ultimately, I'd take the over on 8.5, guessing Kansas City ends up at nine or ten victories.