Bracket Lames: Kentucky to have backers feeling blue

Traverse the aisles of any store and you’re immediately drawn to it – the colors, the packaging, the lettering … the brand.

Familiarity is what enhances product popularity. They’re often synonymous with quality, consistency and delectability. Even though knockoffs and generics may offer similar experiences, it’s the high regard that explains why we consume over and over again.

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In the e-commerce world of brackets, Kentucky is that trademark. This year, similar to seasons past, it’s marketed as a top-shelf contender, a true threat to not only dance in the desert, but also cut down the nets.

After all, history paints a rosy picture. Alongside Duke, North Carolina, UCLA and Kansas, Kentucky owns a corner in the game’s Pantheon. Iconic coaches – Adolph Rupp, Rick Pitino and John Calipari – and All-Americans – Dan Issel, Tony Delk, Jamaal Mashburn, DeMarcus Cousins, Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Davis – walked the hallowed halls of campus landmarks Memorial Coliseum and Rupp Arena. It’s why the basketball institution boasts 55 NCAA tournament appearances – the most of any school – 120 wins, 17 Final Fours and eight national titles.

Smart money, however, encourages you to resist the narrative.

Kentucky will be the biggest NCAA tournament bust this year.

Apologies Ashley Judd.

Here are five reasons why Big Blue Nation won’t measure up to its lofty expectations:

Late-season scoring woes. Kentucky lives and dies with Malik Monk. The future NBA lottery pick is an outstanding, multidimensional scorer who, when on, can drop 30 on a team with ease. Those occurrences, though, were sporadic at best over February and early March. Yes, the freshman buried Florida and Vanderbilt in home bouts, but droughts logged against inferior Missouri, Georgia and Texas A&M nearly caused humiliating losses. De’Aaron Fox, the school’s star point guard, missed the game against the Bulldogs, but efforts in other contests, with Fox on the floor, mystified. If Monk doesn’t exceed 20 points in a given night, it places enormous pressure on Cal’s less explosive and more unreliable complementary options. The ‘Cats need his takeover abilities to shine in order to survive and advance.

Three-point troubles. Outside Monk, Kentucky isn’t a team that routinely rains down on opponents from beyond the arc. Yes, Derek Willis and Mychal Mulder are effective, at times, but they only sporadically cash in. Collectively, the ‘Cats shoot 35.3 percent from distance, 162nd-best in the category nationally. In fact, less than one-quarter of their points come from threes. Zone-heavy teams that can pack the paint are a major matchup problem. Even against strong man defenses they’ve struggled. Scoring in variable ways is fundamental to tournament success. Kentucky, though tremendous around the basket, simply doesn’t possess enough arrows in the arsenal to compete in the later rounds.

Average interior D. Coach Cal, one of the most brutally honest, and refreshingly so, voices in the game today would probably admit his team often looks disinterested on defense. It was apparent when his club was schooled by Florida in Gainesville Feb. 5, a lopsided defeat Calipari described as “rock bottom.” Worked on the boards 54-to-29, UK surrendered an almost unfathomable number of second-chance points and, unsurprisingly, 1.14 points per possession. It tightened up a bit down the stretch defensively, but in SEC play it conceded the fifth-worst two-point percentage. Edrice Adebayo, Willis and Wenyen Gabriel are willing paint defenders, but foes with size and athleticism to match present challenges. The Louisville, UCLA and Kansas losses earlier this season serve as reminders.

Sloppy handles. On several occasions this season, the Wildcats pulled a Plaxico (or Talib) shooting themselves in the foot with costly turnovers. Witnessed in close shaves against Mississippi St., Missouri and, to a lesser extent, in their rematch versus Florida, they coughed it up at an alarming rate, Isaiah Briscoe in particular. Down the stretch, Fox, too, came unhinged. Over his final seven games he tallied an unappealing 21:21 assist-to-turnover split. Cinching up the belt on offense is vital for Kentucky to prevent an early exit.

The mediocre SEC. If you believe the SEC is even in shouting distance of behemoths the ACC, Big 12 or Big East, yours truly could defeat a wolf one-on-one with bare knuckles. By most analytics, the SEC checked in at either No. 5 or No. 6 in overall strength. Similar to the Big Ten, it was a mishmash of mediocrity from top-to-bottom. It’s why only five teams (Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas and Vanderbilt the others) earned bids. The Gators are a legitimate deep-run threat, but the other conference reps won’t likely survive the first weekend. Critics slung mud at Gonzaga for playing in a wimpy league. Based on the SEC’s performance, a similar sentiment should apply to Kentucky. Did the regular season truly prepare the Wildcats? Only time will tell.

To be fair, Kentucky is a balanced team on paper, one of three teams that rank inside the top-15 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Still, despite its NBA-level talent in Monk and Fox, it has glaring limitations. Bounced from the Big Dance by Indiana in the Round of 32 last year, it could suffer an all too familiar fate.

Don’t be seduced by the brand name.

BRACKET LAMES
Here are four additional letdowns (No. 4 seeds or higher) from that could bloody your bracket.

Oregon Ducks (29-5, No. 3 seed, Midwest region) – When Chris Boucher suffered a torn ACL in the Pac-12 tournament a dark cloud draped Eugene. Oregon’s Final Four promise, likely and terribly, ceased with the setback. Pre-injury, Boucher was arguably the nation’s best shot-blocker. His dual paint presence and ability to step out and drain wing threes provided Dana Altman with a multidimensional matchup nightmare. That dream, though, is dashed. Kavell Bigby-Williams is the tourniquet. His defense is on point, but his limitations on offense are apparent. Unless the import from England suddenly excels, the burden will fall on Tyler Dorsey, Dylan Ennis, Jordan Bell and, most especially, Dillon Brooks. The electrifying combo forward is a steely Swiss Army Knife who lights the world on fire offensively. He’s terrific off the dribble, drains triples, owns sick handles and defends. However with the added pressure, he may need to average 25 points per game for Oregon to overachieve. Statistically, the Ducks quack. They rank inside the top-25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, share the rock beautifully and are experienced, but Boucher’s absence thins an already svelte roster. For fellow Midwesterners, Rhode Island, Michigan and Louisville, foie gras is on the menu.

Baylor Bears (25-7, No. 3 seed, East region) – College Basketball’s Care Bears won’t be all rainbows and Funshine. Throughout February and early March they struggled in several facets. They finished 5-6, surrendered an uncharacteristic 1.04 points per possession and turned the ball over at an obscene rate. When humming along, Baylor is a nasty bunch. It features a premier post player in Jonathan Motley, shot disrupter in Jo Lual-Acuil and quality floor general in Manu Lecmote. Additionally, it ranks No. 3 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and, from a cursory view, offer balance on both ends. Again, though, it’s fallen hard. The Bears should coast through out-matched and untested New Mexico St. in opening round action, but a potential Round 2 throw down against SMU looms. The Mustangs, loaded with long, athletic and versatile assets who score the ball inside and out and defend stoutly would exploit Baylor’s weaknesses. Even if it were fortunate enough to survive to the Sweet Sixteen, Duke, unquestionably, would put Scott Drew’s club out of its misery. With it sputtering at the wrong time, let someone else believe in the “Belly Magic.”

Kansas Jayhawks (28-4, No. 1 seed, Midwest region) – Put down the silly sauce, Evans. That’s going to be a common statement uttered by citizens from Lawrence to Los Angeles to Lancaster who see the Big 12 giant on this list. Look, the Jayhawks are darn good, but they’re far from invincible. They are the ninth-most efficient offensive team in the country, showcase Wooden Award frontrunner Frank Mason III, dropped only four games the entire year and have displayed a never-say-die attitude when pushed into high-leverage situations. By most “expert” accounts, Kansas will run roughshod through the Midwest and hang its 15th Final Four banner in Phog Allen’s rafters. This loudmouth, however, disagrees with that perspective. The Jayhawks are immeasurably tough and boast tournament experience, but they have visible fleas. Too often down the stretch they played with fire by falling behind late in games. If not for furious rallies, they would have another blemish or three on the resume. More concerning, this is the worst defensive team in the Bill Self era. They only sporadically force turnovers, get pummeled often on the defensive glass and stretch to the perimeter poorly. Toss in its limited depth, particularly in the frontcourt, and Kansas’ shine dulls. Josh Jackson’s off-the-court issues are also an ongoing distraction. With a number of potential barriers to hurdle in its region (e.g. Iowa St., Louisville and Michigan), it is the most vulnerable top seed.

West Virginia Mountaineers (26-8, No. 4 seed, West region) – Enigmatic and unpredictable best describe this year’s Mountaineers. Sound familiar? Recall last season WVU, a highly thought of No. 3 seed, was ousted by Cinderella Stephen F. Austin in Round 1. That scenario could play out again. The Mountaineers are relentless on defense, like a horde of flesh-hungry zombies they continuously attack. That’s why they rank No. 1 in turnover percentage defense and top-five in points per possession allowed. No pushovers on offense, they often track down errant shots and turn defense into offense converting on a number of high-percentage shots. Still, if you can slow WVU down and contain it in a half-court setting, it’s beatable. It’s below average from distance and generally anemic at the charity stripe. The toughness and tenacity of Jevon Carter and Co. cannot be overestimated, but as witnessed in losses against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas, protect the basketball and break the press and you’ll be richly rewarded. Escape the clutches of Bucknell in Round 1 and West Virginia will be awarded the “pleasure” of playing Notre Dame, a team that commits the fewest turnovers in the country. In other words, avoid.

TOURNEY TIDBITS
Fun facts/trends about the Big Dance:

• Since 2006, 60 percent of teams seeded No. 11-15 that advanced beyond Round 1 ranked inside the top-75 in offensive efficiency. Defense may win championships, but offense springs Cinderella.

• Excluding 2009, at least one No. 2 seed has been eliminated by Round 2 every year since 1997. Last year, Michigan St. and Xavier fell victim.

• Sixteen 8/9 seeds have upended a No. 1 since 1985. North Carolina St. was the last to accomplish the feat knocking off Villanova in 2015.

• No. 5 seeds have lost 35.9 percent of their first-round matchups since ’85.

• No. 3 and No. 6 seeds beware. Eight No. 11 seeds have reached the Sweet Sixteen since 2010. Gonzaga reached the regional semifinals last year.

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