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Big Ten preview: Michigan and Ohio State are getting all the press, but other contenders lurk

Graham Watson

Is it time to buy the hype for Michigan?

Is Ohio State really in a rebuilding year?

Are we doing a disservice to Michigan State and Iowa by completely ignoring last year’s division champs?

These are some of the main questions heading into this Big Ten season as the conference’s quest to get back into the College Football Playoff begins with some tough games on the opening weekend.

While the aforementioned teams are definitely in the spotlight, teams such as Wisconsin and Nebraska could be the biggest surprises. Here’s Dr. Saturday’s look at how the Big Ten season could shape up in 2016.

Offensive Player of the Year
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State

Defensive Player of the Year
Jabril Peppers, DB, Michigan

Newcomer Player of the Year
John O’Korn, QB, Michigan

BIG TEN EAST (in predicted order of finish)

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AP_490223831457

Ohio State
2015 record: 12-1
2015 finish: 2nd East

Overview: Ohio State’s 2016 NFL draft class was historic, unfortunately, it left the Buckeyes with just six returning starters — three on either side of the ball — and a whole lot of unanswered questions. That said, the Buckeyes do return quarterback J.T. Barrett, who should be the top player in the conference. And the Buckeye defense has been terrific during coach Urban Meyer’s tenure, which shouldn’t change despite some new faces. While there are a couple tough road games on the schedule, including at Michigan State, the Buckeyes gets its rival Michigan at home.

Best-case scenario: Ohio State flies under the radar because of its lack of returning starters and fields a team that’s consistent with the ones that have made Meyer 31-1 in Big Ten play since coming to Columbus. The Buckeyes go undefeated and get back into the CFP.

Worst-case scenario: This really is a rebuilding year for the Buckeyes and they struggle throughout the season. They escape with some close wins thanks to talent, but the last two contests against Michigan State and Michigan doom their conference and playoff chances.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 8-1

Michigan tight end Jake Butt. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)
Michigan tight end Jake Butt. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

Michigan
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 3rd East

Overview: Michigan returns 14 starters from a team that doubled its win total from 2014 to 2015. The Wolverines have a lot of talent returning on offense, but need to pick a quarterback. Defensively, Michigan was one of the best teams in the country a year ago. Don’t expect that to change much in 2016. The only thing that might ruin the Wolverines’ season is a schedule that includes Wisconsin and Iowa out of the West and games at Ohio State and Michigan State.

Best-case scenario: The Wolverines live up to the preseason hype, are able to overcome a tough schedule and go undefeated in conference play to not only win the Big Ten, but grab a CFP spot.

Worst-case scenario: The Wolverines lose at Michigan State, at Iowa and at Ohio State and end up in a disappointing bowl game that no one cares about. This team has too much talent to suffer that fate.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 8-1

Michigan State's LJ Scott, left, rushes against Montae Nicholson (9) during an NCAA college football scrimmage, Saturday, April 23, 2016, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Michigan State’s LJ Scott, left, rushes against Montae Nicholson (9) during an NCAA college football scrimmage, Saturday, April 23, 2016, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Michigan State
2015 record: 12-2
2015 finish: 1st East

Overview: With as much as Michigan and Ohio State have been in the news this offseason, you almost forget that Michigan State was last year’s East winner. However, the Spartans go from having the league’s most experienced team to having one of its least experienced. The biggest loss for the Spartans is quarterback Connor Cook, who was a three-year letterwinner, who willed the team to some wins last year. Also gone is star receiver Aaron Burbridge and star offensive linemen Jack Allen and Jack Conklin, and only six players return on defense. But don’t sleep on the Spartans. Home games against Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State give Michigan State a legitimate chance of repeating as champs.

Best-case scenario: Quarterback Tyler O’Connor does what he did in last year’s upset win against Ohio State and makes the Spartans a better team than anyone could have imagined. They sweep home games against Michigan and Ohio State and end up winning a three-way tie for the division title.

Worst-case scenario: Michigan State can’t overcome the losses, especially on offense, and the close games they won a year ago all turn into losses resulting in a seven or eight-win campaign.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-2

STATE COLLEGE, PA - NOVEMBER 21: Saquon Barkley #26 of the Penn State Nittany Lions runs with the ball in the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Beaver Stadium on November 21, 2015 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Evan Habeeb/Getty Images)
STATE COLLEGE, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Saquon Barkley #26 of the Penn State Nittany Lions runs with the ball in the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Beaver Stadium on November 21, 2015 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Evan Habeeb/Getty Images)

Penn State
2015 record: 7-6
2015 finish: 4th East

Overview: The offseason rift between coach James Franklin and former quarterback Christian Hackenberg explained a lot of what happened down the stretch for the Nittany Lions. They won seven of their first nine games and then lost their final four of the season. Some of that was on-field errors and some was just poor coaching. This year, Penn State starts over with a new quarterback in Trace McSorley and a talented running back in Saquon Barkley to go with eight other returning offensive starters. The defense, however, will have several new bodies up front and the linebacking corps is lacking depth. Overall. Penn State has the personnel to have a better 2016, but Franklin may have to stop micromanaging for success.

Best-case scenario: Franklin is no stranger to defying expectations and the Nittany Lions could get to as many as nine wins this season. It helps that they have games against Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State at home.

Worst-case scenario: Franklin can’t get out of his own way and more poor decisions lead to close losses for the Nittany Lions. Then, the fans start to turn on Franklin and things get ugly in State College.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-4

Indiana running back Devine Redding (34) finds a hole in the Iowa defense during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Bloomington, Ind., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
Indiana running back Devine Redding (34) finds a hole in the Iowa defense during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Bloomington, Ind., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Indiana
2015 record: 6-3
2015 finish: 5th East

Overview: Indiana was one of the biggest surprises last season as they had narrow losses against Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa. The Hoosiers made their first bowl game since 2007 and are now hoping to capitalize on that momentum with 13 returning starters. The Hoosiers do have to replace quarterback Nate Sudfeld, but running back Devine Redding returns and so does a talented offensive line. The offense was pretty great last year, but the defense was atrocious. It ranked 120th in total defense and 116th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game. If the Hoosiers want to move up in the Big Ten, they’re going to have to get better on that side of the ball.

Best-case scenario: Indiana was so close to having a dream season, so the ideal scenario would actually involve the Hooisers winning those games against the conference’s top teams.

Worst-case scenario: The offense takes a step back without Sudfeld, the defense continues to struggle and the Hoosiers go back to watching bowl games from their couch.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-5

IOWA CITY, IA - OCTOBER 31: Tight end Henry Krieger Coble #80 of the Iowa Hawkeyes is brought down by linebacker Jalen Brooks #43 and Jermaine Carter #23 of the Maryland Terrapins in the first half on October 31, 2015 at Kinnick Stadium, in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)
IOWA CITY, IA – OCTOBER 31: Tight end Henry Krieger Coble #80 of the Iowa Hawkeyes is brought down by linebacker Jalen Brooks #43 and Jermaine Carter #23 of the Maryland Terrapins in the first half on October 31, 2015 at Kinnick Stadium, in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Maryland
2015 record: 3-9
2015 finish: 7th East

Overview: New coach D.J. Durkin is going to have his work cut out for him, especially in a tough Big Ten East. However, the start of the Terps’ schedule, which includes games against Howard, FIU, UCF and Purdue, could give them some confidence going into a tough Big Ten slate. Still, the scoring offense, which ranked 95th nationally with just 24.7 points per game, is going to have to get better if the Terps want to make any headway in the East.

Best-case scenario: Maryland starts the season 4-0, gains a little momentum and is competitive through its Big Ten schedule, maybe even picking off wins against Indiana and Rutgers to earn bowl eligibility.

Worst-case scenario: The Terps come out of their nonconference schedule with a loss and then open conference play with a loss to Purdue. Things don’t get any easier from there and it’s tough for Durkin to get his team back on track en route to a two-win season.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-7

during a game at High Point Solutions Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Piscataway, New Jersey.
PISCATAWAY, NJ – NOVEMBER 28: Chris Laviano #5 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights hands off to Robert Martin #7 during a game at High Point Solutions Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

Rutgers
2015 record: 4-8
2015 finish: 6th East

Overview: Similar to Maryland, Rutgers is rebuilding with a new coach after a tough 2015 in a new conference. Coach Chris Ash inherits 16 starters, but this team is not yet built to compete with the other teams in its division. The offense is moving to an up-tempo attack with quarterback Chris Laviano at the helm. Laviano had some good games, also a lot of bad ones, but he does have a lot of talent returning. The biggest concern will be on defense where the non-huddle scheme really seems to take its toll. This defense is going to have to be in peak condition because the offense isn’t going to take much time off the clock and the East offenses know how to put points on the board.

Best-case scenario: The conference schedule starts out brutal with games against Iowa and Ohio State, but the Scarlet Knights might be able to snag a win against Illinois and perhaps even Maryland at the end of the season.

Worst-case scenario: This team could go winless in the conference as it tries to get its offensive scheme up and running, especially if it’s embarrassed in those first two conference games.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 1-8

BIG TEN WEST (in predicted order of finish)

EVANSTON, IL - OCTOBER 17: Desmond King #14 of the Iowa Hawkeyes falls to the ground after making an interception against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first quarter at Ryan Field on October 17, 2015 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
EVANSTON, IL – OCTOBER 17: Desmond King #14 of the Iowa Hawkeyes falls to the ground after making an interception against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first quarter at Ryan Field on October 17, 2015 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)

Iowa
2015 record: 12-2
2015 finish: 1st West

Overview: Iowa was 8-0 in conference play, but it didn’t dominate its opponents as the Hawkeyes won six of their conference games by 10 or fewer points. However, the schedule sets up favorably with all of the toughest West games at home as well as the crossover game against Michigan. The offense returns quarterback C.J. Beathard and receiver Matt VandeBerg as well as three of the team’s top four running backs. Cornerback Desmond King returns to anchor the defense.

Best-case scenario: The Hawkeyes have a repeat of last year’s success and cruise to another 8-0 conference record. They defeat Michigan or Ohio State in the conference title game and finally get a spot in the CFP.

Worst-case scenario: The close games the Hawkeyes won last year turn into disappointing losses and the Hawkeyes revert back to the team that couldn’t win more than eight games a season.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 8-1

SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 26: Tommy Armstrong Jr. #4 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers is pressured by Aaron Wallace #51 of the UCLA Bruins during the Foster Farms Bowl at Levi's Stadium on December 26, 2015 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA – DECEMBER 26: Tommy Armstrong Jr. #4 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers is pressured by Aaron Wallace #51 of the UCLA Bruins during the Foster Farms Bowl at Levi’s Stadium on December 26, 2015 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Nebraska
2015 record: 6-7
2015 finish: 4th West

Overview: If there’s one team that could shock this season it’s the Huskers. Nebraska lost five games in the final seconds and could have just as easily finished 11-2 a year ago. The Huskers return 13 players, including quarterback Tommy Armstrong, and several players from an offense that seemed to get better as the season progressed. A second year in coach Mike Riley’s system should produce better results and the Huskers could be the team to watch in 2016.

Best-case scenario: Nebraska turns those close losses into wins and become a player in the Big Ten race.

Worst-case scenario: Nebraska still can’t close out games and the Huskers struggle to make a bowl game for the second consecutive season.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-2

MADISON, WI - OCTOBER 17: Robert Wheelwright #15 of the Wisconsin Badgers is brought down by Anthony Brown #9 of the Purdue Boilermakers during the first quarter of a game at Camp Randall Stadium on October 17, 2015 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
MADISON, WI – OCTOBER 17: Robert Wheelwright #15 of the Wisconsin Badgers is brought down by Anthony Brown #9 of the Purdue Boilermakers during the first quarter of a game at Camp Randall Stadium on October 17, 2015 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Wisconsin
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 3rd West

Overview: Wisconsin was one game away from winning the West, but might not have the same kind of luck this year, especially with one of the nation’s toughest schedules. The Badgers open the conference season with games at Michigan State, Michigan, at home against Ohio State and at Iowa. If they can get through that brutal slate (not to mention the season opener against LSU) then the Badgers need to be in the conversation for the College Football Playoff. However, getting through that gauntlet seems unlikely, especially without defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, the orchestrator of some of Wisconsin’s best defensive teams.

Best-case scenario: If the Badgers could beat LSU in the season opener, it might give them confidence and momentum to get through the opening four games of the conference season with one loss. That should be enough to get voters to take notice and the rest of the schedule should be manageable.

Worst-case scenario: The Badgers lose the season opening game and subsequently get clobbered through the first four conference games. They rebound through the latter half of the season, but don’t hit the double-digit win total of 2015.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-4

TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 1: Clayton Thorson #18 of the Northwestern Wildcats against the Tennessee Volunteers during the Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium on January 1, 2016 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 1: Clayton Thorson #18 of the Northwestern Wildcats against the Tennessee Volunteers during the Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium on January 1, 2016 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

Northwestern
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 2nd West

Overview: Northwestern won as many games in 2015 as it won in the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined and was close to winning the West crown. So why are they so low? The schedule is not as favorable as it was a year ago with games at Iowa, at Michigan State and at Ohio State. However, the defense should be one of the better units in the country after ranking 13th nationally in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. The Wildcats also must improve on offense if they want to makes waves against that schedule. The Wildcats ranked 114th in scoring offense with just 19.5 points per game and returning quarterback Clayton Thorson led a passing offense that ranked 119th in the country.

Best-case scenario: Northwestern finds an offense that was almost nonexistent, surprises Iowa and Michigan State and makes another push for the Big Ten West crown.

Worst-case scenario: The defense does its best but can’t overcome a challenging schedule and the Wildcats’ win total moves back to the single digits. However, even in the worst-case scenario, the Wildcats should still win enough games to make a bowl game.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-5

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 17: Mitch Leidner #7 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers hands off the ball to teammate Rodney Smith #24 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first quarter of the game on October 17, 2015 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 17: Mitch Leidner #7 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers hands off the ball to teammate Rodney Smith #24 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first quarter of the game on October 17, 2015 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

Minnesota
2015 record: 6-7
2015 finish: 5th West

Overview: Minnesota had a rough season last year. It started 4-2, but when coach Jerry Kill stepped down for health reasons, things went a bit south and the Gophers finished 1-4. However, they did get the benefit of a bowl game as a 5-7 team and those bowl practices — and bowl win — will propel the Gophers in coach Tracy Claeys’ first full season. Quarterback Mitch Leidner and the running back tandem of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith should be the strength of this team while the defense will look at lot like it did a year ago. If there’s one thing going for the Gophers it’s that they don’t play Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State this season and have one of the most favorable schedules in the West.

Best-case scenario: Claeys has confidence that his squad can be a contender in the West and with a favorable schedule might be right. The Gophers won eight games in the two previous years before last year’s slide and could repeat that feat in 2016.

Worst-case scenario: The offense doesn’t come together the way Claeys hopes and the Gophers lose some games against Maryland, Rutgers and Illinois that they probably could win. They fall to 5-7 again and don’t get the fortuitous bowl invite.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-5

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 28: Dawuane Smoot #91 of the Illinois Fighting Illini moves to tackle Justin Jackson #21 of the Northwestern Wildcats at Soldier Field on November 28, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. Northwestern defeated Illinois 24-14. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – NOVEMBER 28: Dawuane Smoot #91 of the Illinois Fighting Illini moves to tackle Justin Jackson #21 of the Northwestern Wildcats at Soldier Field on November 28, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. Northwestern defeated Illinois 24-14. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Illinois
2015 record: 5-7
2015 finish: 6th West

Overview: Illinois was 5-7 last year, despite losing its coach right before fall camp, and was close to making a bowl game. Now, new head coach Lovie Smith steps in and we’ll have to see how his NFL acumen jives with the college game. The Illini return seven players on offense, including quarterback Wes Lunt and running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who rushed for 723 yards last year. But it’s also missing top receiver Mike Dudek, who tore his ACL for the second consecutive season. The defense could be a crapshoot with a new system and seven new starters. Defensive end Dawuane Smoot returns as the unit’s top player and Cal transfer Hardy Nickerson, who dad is the DC, should be an added boost. The schedule is not favorable though with five conference road games.

Best-case scenario: Smith is a miracle worker and his pro experience inspires the Illini and leads them to their first winning season since 2011.

Worst-case scenario: This is a rebuilding year for the Illini and the bowless streak continues.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-7

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - OCTOBER 31: DeAngelo Yancey #7 of the Purdue Boilermakers reaches out for a pass against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the third quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium on October 31, 2015 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Cory Seward/Getty Images)
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – OCTOBER 31: DeAngelo Yancey #7 of the Purdue Boilermakers reaches out for a pass against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the third quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium on October 31, 2015 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Cory Seward/Getty Images)

Purdue
2015 record: 2-10
2015 finish: 7th West

Overview: Purdue showed some improvement last season even if the record doesn’t match. It played close with the likes of Iowa and Michigan State and had a surprise victory against Nebraska. However, improving on last year’s 1-7 conference record might be difficult, especially since the Boilermakers’ most winnable games are on the road. The offense, which ranked 92nd nationally in scoring last year, has to get better in all facets, especially rushing where it ranked 13th in the conference. The Boilermakers do return 16 players from last year’s squad, but it will take a lot to turn around their fortunes and perhaps save coach Darrell Hazell’s job.

Best-case scenario: Purdue is going to have to find a way to steal some games on the road against the easier teams on its schedule. If the Boilermakers can do that, they might be able to win three conference games this season.

Worst-case scenario: Last year’s win came from an awesome effort against Nebraska. However, a repeat of that feat might be wishful thinking. With a tough home conference schedule, the Boilermakers could finish with no conference wins and Hazell could be on his way out.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 1-7

Graham Watson is the editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at dr.saturday@ymail.com or follow her on Twitter!