Backup RBs To Own
Sports Injury Predictor has partnered with Rotoworld in 2015 to give you an even greater chance of winning your league this coming season. As a quick introduction we have an algorithm that figures out which players are more likely to get injured in the coming season and the injury history of every player in the NFL. Follow us on Twitter @injurypredictor and check out our injury search engine here.
A fundamental principle of risk management is that you either minimize risk through making investments that have a low probability of failure or you have a plan to manage the impact of risky investments that don’t work out as intended. The same is true of fantasy football. No one ever won their league by playing safe but you can reduce your risk by not overpaying (check out our risk reward profiles in the draft guide) and you can minimize the impact of injury by adopting different approaches to positions where you may be exposed.
One way to leverage injury probability whether it’s in season-long leagues or MFL10s is by looking for backup Running Backs who are the next man up if the player in front of them on the depth chart gets injured. This is not to say you should handcuff your RB1 and 2 with their backup on the depth chart as a blanket practice. We’re not suggesting you burn up spots on your roster stocking players who are not likely to see the field.
But there are some situations that provide insight into who is more likely to get injured that can lead to good draft planning.
Using our injury prediction model we have assigned a probability of injury to every player who is relevant for Fantasy Football. We then took our list of our top 10 Running Backs (found here) and divided the backup RBs into tiers 1, 2 and 3.
Tier one includes those backup RBs who a) have an established role on the team so that there is a defined path for opportunity in the event of an injury and b) have a track record of getting it done when given the opportunity in the past.
Tier two describes situations where the backup running backs are rookies whose roles have not been established and have not been tested with live play, but who are in situations where they most likely will get the opportunity to start at some point in the season.
Tier three covers situations where the mix in the backfield is cloudy but due to a high risk of injury to the lead RB there is a good chance opportunity will be presented to someone at some point this season. If you were to draft tomorrow it would be a dice roll as to which, if any, of the backup RBs would take over in the event of an injury. These are situations to keep an eye on as the preseason progresses as this picture should get clearer as roles get established.
Last season C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett and even Knile Davis probably helped you a lot if you picked them up. Let’s break down who might be the 2015 RB backup that takes you towards the title.
Tier 1
Primary RB: Eddie Lacy
Backup: James Starks
Lacy has been one of the most efficient backs in the NFL since arriving in 2012. His violent downhill running style, often compared to Marshawn Lynch, is filled with rage and causes him to usually run through the defender(s) rather than make them miss. This season Lacy has even come out with his own T-Shirt called “Business Decisions” which is what he says defenders need to do make before they decide to tackle him. But with this intensity comes risk. Two concussions in back to back years are a concern along with some of the nagging injuries he has been able to play through in his first two seasons in the NFL. While he has not missed any significant time it’s not a stretch of the imagination to see him missing games in 2015.
James Starks has proven he is very capable of filling in for the Packers over the last 5 years. He is the owner of a career 4.3 YPC and is a very capable receiver out of the backfield. He also has no competition in the event of Lacy going down. This coupled with the fact he is playing on a team commanded by arguably one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks to throw a pigskin should allow him to produce in the event of Lacy missing time.
Editor's Note: For the rest of Jake's column analyzing backup RBs to own this season, get the Rotoworld Draft Guide. In addition to in-depth injury analysis, you'll find extensive player profiles, standard, half-PPR, full-PPR, Dynasty and Auction rankings, tiers, ADP reports, sleepers, busts, projections, positional strength of schedule and much more.