Analyzing Player Athleticism

The SPARQ metric has been extensively discussed on Rotoworld over the last year, particularly with regards to last spring’s draft coverage. I’ve also published SPARQ information at my personal site, 3SigmaAthlete.com. If you’re interested in exploring athleticism metrics further, I recommend reading my pieces on SPARQ athleticism and analytics, as I’ll only give a brief introduction here. My appearance on Josh Norris’ Process the Process podcast also delves further into the specifics of SPARQ and how it should be used in the player evaluation process.

SPARQ is an athleticism metric that was developed by Nike and subsequently adopted by current Seattle Seahawks management in their player evaluation process. It’s a way of understanding in simple terms how a given player compares athletically relative to their peers, both in their draft class and on a league-wide basis. I describe this in a little more detail in last year’s article.

The idea here is not to talk about Todd Gurley or Amari Cooper. We want to identify undervalued targets that may be available in the mid-to-late rounds and are less visible to the standard fantasy player than a name-brand first-round pick.

Zach Zenner, RB, Detroit, 132.3 pSPARQ (81st percentile)

There’s more than one SPARQ favorite in the Detroit backfield. Zach Zenner had a lot going for him this spring: the third-best SPARQ performance among all running backs at the NFL Combine in February, an incredible track record of production at South Dakota State and a correctly spelled first name. Despite the impressive resume, he still found himself in the large undrafted pool of NFL prospects in early May. Instead of comparisons to Jay Ajayi or Stevan Ridley, he was listed by many draft sites as a fullback. Hmmm.

The valuation of Zenner as a prospect was lowered because he played in the Missouri Valley Conference. His athletic ability was oddly understated, discussed as a “smaller Mike Alstott.” That didn’t stop Zenner from running away from D-I defenses, though it may be charitable to credit Kansas as an FBS program in recent times. If he does manage to make the Detroit roster, there’s a clear route for him to quickly make a mark. Abdullah, while talented, is probably not a sustaining NFL running back capable of shouldering the load by himself, and Joique Bell isn’t Eric Dickerson. I’d take a late-round shot on Zenner and hope that he can continue doing this in the regular season.

Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City, 129.3 pSPARQ (74th percentile)

In addition to having the best name in the NFL, Charcandrick West is a lurking third-string running back on a team that uses that position in heavy volume. The odds of West getting significant time aren’t great, but he’s a midseason pickup with almost zero acquisition cost and neither Knile Davis nor Jamaal Charles is a stranger to serious injury. West may not play a snap, but few third-string backs are as well-positioned to win fantasy leagues.

His athleticism isn’t on an entirely different plane of existence than other NFL backs, a la Jerick McKinnon, but he’s a solidly above-average NFL athlete. He’s also flashed in the preseason, showing ability both on the ground and through the air. If injuries do hit, savvy fantasy owners will be picking up Charcandrick West a week before the rest of their league gets wise.

Charles Johnson, WR, Minnesota, 130.0 pSPARQ (89th percentile among NFL WRs)

The Packers took highly athletic receivers from small schools in the seventh round of two consecutive drafts, with Charles Johnson arriving in 2013 and Jeff Janis selected a year later. While Janis stuck on the team as a rookie, Johnson ended up spending his debut season on the Cleveland IR. The Grand Valley State product caught a break when Cleveland decided to bring in Miles Austin, placing Johnson on the practice squad. This allowed Minnesota to swoop in, teaming Johnson with Teddy Bridgewater. It took time to integrate Johnson into the offense, but he closed the season with the arrow pointing straight up.

They don’t come as big and fast as Charles Johnson very often. He’s a superior athlete to Justin Hunter, who went nearly 200 picks earlier in the same draft largely on the basis of athleticism. With a 39.5” vertical and 11’1” broad jump, he fell just a half-inch short of successfully pulling off a “Calvin,” barely missing the rare of group of players (including Calvin Johnson) capable of 40” and 11’ in the jumps. Charles Johnson is what we want Donte Moncrief to be, a big, athletic receiver paired with a promising young quarterback and equipped with plenty of opportunity.

Jeff Janis, WR, Green Bay, 137.1 pSPARQ (97th percentile)

As discussed above, Janis was the 2014 Green Bay late-round WR pick, displaying even more athletic ability than Johnson had the previous season. There’s no doubting his athletic ability or frame; he’s best described as a more athletic version of either Javon Walker or Kevin White, possessing a rare combination of speed, quickness and explosion for a big receiver.

Janis may not end up the direct beneficiary of the Jordy Nelson injury, but I’d rather put my stock here than with rookie Ty Montgomery. While Montgomery played at a bigger school and is more visible to the general football public, it’s Janis’ history of college production and truly elite athleticism that has a real chance to win fantasy leagues.

Darren Waller, WR, Baltimore, 124.3 pSPARQ (77th percentile)

Darren Waller is a longshot in the mold of Jeff Janis last season, and it’s probable that he doesn’t make an immediate impact in 2015. Still, he fits the old logic: no one that can run with him is tall enough to defend him, and no one tall enough to defend him can run with him. He’s a bigger version of Mike Evans, but with a background that couldn’t be more different. While Evans played in the pass-happy offense at A&M, Waller’s college production was suppressed by a triple option offense at Georgia Tech.

It’s for this reason that we really don’t know what to make of Waller; he fits the size/speed/weight standard, but is he a good receiver? It’s nearly impossible to know. What’s clear is that the acquisition cost is zero, and also that the Breshad Perriman injury may allow for him to make an impact much sooner than previously expected. His situation merits close attention and could yield an early-season win on the waiver wire.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville, 143.2 pSPARQ (99th percentile)

Allen Robinson isn’t an unknown quantity at this point, but it’s worth noting just how much of an athletic freak he is relative to everyone else. He’s one of the ten most athletic receivers to test over the last 17 draft classes, and the second-most athletic active receiver behind Calvin Johnson. He’s still sporting a 6th-round ADP, mainly because of his team situation and an injury that put him on IR to close last season, but he won’t be available that late in 2016. Get him now and profit.

Frank Clark, DL, Seattle, 141.6 pSPARQ (95th percentile among NFL EDGEs)

While Frank Clark wasn’t selected until late in the second round, it wasn’t due to a lack of ability. He possesses a blend of length and athleticism that comes around in an EDGE prospect once every 4 or 5 years. Dating back to 1999, the list of EDGE players that fit into his athleticism and length zip code: Manny Lawson, Justin Houston, Michael Johnson, DeMarcus Ware and Mario Williams. Because of his well-documented criminal case, he never experienced the “Combine bump” typically seen for those who stand out in Indianapolis. Judging by history, it seems unlikely that his athletic profile would’ve fallen beyond the top half of the first round without significant off-field concerns.

Clark now finds himself in Seattle, an ideal fit for his skillset. Though the Seahawks utilize heavy rotation on the defensive line, the team has included him in their primary nickel rush group, a package in which he lines up at defensive tackle rather than defensive end. Playing the inside role in Seattle’s nickel package led to Clinton McDonald putting up 6.5 sacks during the 2013 season, and Clark will also have the added opportunity to play at end on base downs. He may not receive enough snaps to make a huge statistical impact early, but if injuries hit, he could have a prolific rookie season.