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AFC championship: Can the Steelers' Triple B's lead Pittsburgh past the Patriots?

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2)

Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS

STEELERS AT A GLANCE

Key player: RB Le’Veon Bell. Yes, it’s obvious, but Bell has to be one of the five best players in the NFL right now. The Patriots’ M.O. on defense has long been to do what they can to take away a team’s biggest offensive weapon and make them win with everyone else. That’s not easy with Bell. The 24-year old has totaled 1,431 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns during the Steelers’ current eight-game win streak, and he sat out the regular-season finale against the Browns. That’s a great season for many players; Bell has done it in what amounts to half a season.

Keeping Le'Veon Bell in check will be job No. 1 for the New England defense. (AP)
Keeping Le’Veon Bell in check will be job No. 1 for the New England defense. (AP)

And he’s been even better rushing the ball in the postseason: in the Steelers’ games against the Dolphins and Chiefs, Bell had 337 yards on 59 attempts, which averages out to 5.7 yards per carry. In New England’s Week 7 win over Pittsburgh, he had 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, and 10 catches for 68 yards, but did not score.

Why they’ll win: Pittsburgh lost at home to New England, 27-16, in October, but there’s an asterisk to that game: Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play. It proved to be the only game he missed with a torn meniscus in his knee (the Steelers’ bye was the following week), and the Patriots saw Landry Jones at quarterback in the game. As Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin excitedly noted when the playoffs began, this is the first time he’s had the Killer B’s – Ben, Bell and receiver Antonio Brown – all available in the postseason.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been overwhelming teams during its win streak; it has hit 30 points only twice, and the last six wins have been by 8 points or less. They were down 20-10 early in the fourth quarter against rival Baltimore in Week 16, scoring three touchdowns in the final 12 minutes to win; the week before, they were down 20-9 to the Bengals at halftime and posted a second-half shutout for the win. But the Steelers were able to jump out to 14-0 and 20-3 leads over Miami in the wild-card round, dictating how the Dolphins would have to play to try to catch up. It was different in Kansas City: as the expected slugfest played out, the Steelers were able to do just enough to get into scoring position. They’re tough, they’re versatile, and with Bell and Brown, they can be explosive. It’s a lot for a defense to handle.

Kicker Chris Boswell provided all of the Steelers' points against the Chiefs last week. (AP)
Kicker Chris Boswell provided all of the Steelers’ points against the Chiefs last week. (AP)

Why they’ll lose: Look back at what we wrote about those late-season games against the Ravens and Bengals – Tom Brady and the Patriots rarely cave after building up an early lead. Even more troubling for the Steelers: they couldn’t get into the end zone against the Chiefs, settling for six field goals. As the Houston Texans learned last week and so many other clubs have learned in recent years against the Patriots, field goals won’t get it done. New England has totaled 110 points over its last three games alone.

The Steelers have also had the flu bug strike the locker room at the worst time, with receiver Cobi Hamilton saying around 15 players had been dealing with illness this week. One more note: while Pittsburgh holds a 14-11 edge in the all-time matchup against New England, the Steelers are just 2-9 against Brady.

Dion Lewis scored three touchdowns for the Patriots vs. Houston last week. (Getty Images)
Dion Lewis scored three touchdowns for the Patriots vs. Houston last week. (Getty Images)

PATRIOTS AT A GLANCE

Key player: RB Dion Lewis. Lewis had a postseason game for the ages against Houston last week, becoming the first player in the history of the NFL playoffs to post a rushing, receiving and kickoff return touchdown in the same game. Even more remarkable, in the two seasons he’s been with the Patriots, when Lewis is healthy and in uniform, the Patriots haven’t lost a game – they’re 15-0.

Lewis wears No. 33, and for those who have followed New England for a certain length of time, watching him conjures memories of the last No. 33 for the team, Kevin Faulk. Faulk carved out a niche for himself as a third-down back, able to pick up the tough yards as a ballcarrier or catch a pass out of the backfield, was also a versatile returner; Faulk’s tenacious pass-protection earned him the right for those opportunities, and Patriots coach Bill Belichick recently noted Lewis’ development in that area. Lewis fumbled twice last week against the Texans, losing one, and after the game only wanted to talk about those miscues. But it would be a surprise to see him make a similar mistake on Sunday – as the Patriots practiced in a light rain on Wednesday, Belichick announced that it was a great day to work on ball security, then added, “Right, Dion?” to twist the screw just a bit.

Why they’ll win: Is there anything at this point we haven’t seen Brady do? Even at 39 years old and in his 17th NFL season, his resolve is as strong as ever, and perhaps even more this year, when not just his achievements but his character have been called into question after deflate-gate and the four-game suspension he served at the start of this season because of it.

The Patriots are as balanced as they’ve been in several years, third in the league in scoring offense during the regular season, and first in scoring defense. They have standout players on both sides of the ball, from Brady, Lewis, Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman on offense to Malcolm Butler, Devin McCourty and Dont’a Hightower on defense, and special teams as well – Matthew Slater is the league’s best teams player, but punter Ryan Allen is very good, and kicker Stephen Gostkowski is back to his steady self after some early-season hiccups.

New England has won five straight home playoff games, averaging 36.8 points in those games, and eight of its last nine, though the only loss came to Baltimore in the 2010 AFC championship.

Why they’ll lose: One key for Pittsburgh: pay a lot of attention to Edelman. During the Patriots’ eight-game win streak, Brady has attempted 304 passes; fully a third of those, 101, have been directed toward Edelman. Sure, the Patriots are without injured Rob Gronkowski, but Brady might be too reliant on Edelman. If the Steelers erase Edelman, who will step up? Chris Hogan has had some standout moments, but Bennett has been limited in practice this week with a knee injury. Malcolm Mitchell, who has enjoyed the most successful rookie season at receiver in the Belichick/Brady era, may be back this week, which would be a help.

Offensively, the Patriots didn’t have many miscues during the regular season, but Brady has thrown at least one interception in five of the team’s last six playoff games; it could only take one pivotal turnover to turn the tide in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Defensively, if New England stumbles and can’t slow Bell, it could open the door to the Steelers being able to dictate play.

Will Tom Brady head to the Super Bowl the a seventh time? (Getty Images)
Will Tom Brady head to the Super Bowl a seventh time? (Getty Images)

OUTLOOK

This is the AFC championship, so it’s supposed to be a very good game, and you can see scenarios under which either team wins; what you don’t expect, at least looking at the matchup on paper, is a blowout.

One thing to wonder is if there are any lingering issues in the Pittsburgh locker room after Brown’s ill-advised Facebook Live incident after the win in Kansas City. Coach Mike Tomlin seems to have a good pulse on his team and had some pretty stern words about Brown’s actions earlier this week.

The early 2000s rivalry that these teams shared has largely faded, but clearly there’s still some resentment, given Tomlin’s choice of curse word to describe the Patriots, as we learned in that Facebook Live video. Tomlin also intimated that New England may have been messing with his headset in the 2015 season opener, when he briefly heard the Patriots’ radio broadcast of the game instead of his coaching staff. To a man (of course), Belichick and Patriots players dismissed Tomlin’s colorful characterization of their team, instead saying the Steelers are a great team and will pose a big challenge.

The Patriots have the edge in the matchup, with arguably the most well-rounded team left in the playoffs. If the New England offensive line stands up and gives Brady time – and he doesn’t need much – Brady will be successful against the Pittsburgh defense. The Patriots defense has seen some of the best running backs in the NFL this season and not allowed any of them to post a 100-yard game.

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