AccuScore Simulation: Humanitarian Bowl

By Jonathan Lee, AccuScore Analyst, AccuScore.coma>
Yahoo! Sports

AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every bowl game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's's analysis of the Humanitarian Bowl.

Baseline: Georgia Tech 59%, Fresno State 41%; Score: Georgia Tech 28, Fresno State 25

Georgia Tech will have a new coach next year in Paul Johnson who impressively rebuilt the Navy program. While the program gets ready for Johnson, John Tenuta will coach the bowl game. The Yellow Jackets have been up and down all year having won back-to-back games three separate times immediately followed by a loss. They are winning just over 60% of simulations. Running back Tashard Choice will carry the offense with 130 yards and a touchdown.

Fresno State finished third in the WAC, and will likely rely on the ground game with running backs Lonyae Miller, Clifton Smith, and Anthony Harding. They are forecasted to rush for 165 rushing yards combined. There are not very many sacks or interceptions projected to occur in this game, which is more a function of both teams relying on their running games than on the defenses. While watching this game remember that there is probably nothing wrong with your television set. The field really is that blue.


Four different players for Fresno State had 80 carries or more, but the most productive player was freshman Ryan Mathews. He is not expected to play because of a torn muscle near his collarbone. If Mathews were healthy enough to handle around 40% of the team’s carries, Fresno State’s chances improve significantly and would win 47% of simulations. If he were healthy enough to handle the bulk of the carries, Fresno State would actually go from an underdog to a favorite winning a majority of the simulations (53%). In that scenario Mathews is projected to top 120 yards rushing and a touchdown.

R. Mathews Fre. St. Rush YD YPC TD
Scenario 1 47% 11.5 64 5.6 0.8
Scenario 2 53% 24.2 123 5.1 1.2


Yellow Jacket running back Tashard Choice missed time this year due to injury, but he is clearly healthy now ending the season with three straight games with over 130 yards rushing. He is forecasted for 25 carries and 130 yards rushing with an average of 1.4 touchdowns per simulation. However, if Choice were not playing, Georgia Tech would barely be favored, winning a shade over 50% of simulations.

Fre. St. Ga. Tech
Baseline 40% 60%
No Choice 48% 52%

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