49ers' Harbaugh breakup might validate moves from Saints, Colts
When Black Monday arrived this week in the NFL, there was an expectation of familiar postseason sequels. The spate of team-breaking dramas was projected to break down like this: the coach and the general manager wouldn't make it work, media camps would've highlighted the team's divide further with a volley of sniping leaks and finally, ownership would've called a news conference to explain why someone had to be set adrift.
Close credits. Open the bank account. Buckle seat belts.
We've seen this plot before, and it doesn't always stimulate success. Look no further than the San Francisco 49ers, who went to the mattresses on Jim Harbaugh at the end of the 2014 season, retained general manager Trent Baalke and rewarded assistant coach Jim Tomsula with the head job and a $14 million deal. One year (and five wins) later, Tomsula is fired, the onetime franchise quarterback (Colin Kaepernick) is potentially on his way out the door and team owner Jed York is essentially standing in the middle of it all, admitting his own culpability.
You can bet the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts took note. And you can certainly bet that what happened in San Francisco made owners like the Saints' Tom Benson and Colts' Jim Irsay motivated to make their current situations work. As one league source put it just minutes before Payton's news conference to announce he'll remain with the team: "The Saints are doing the smart thing. They know it's hard to find really good coaches. When you've got one, you figure it out."
San Francisco didn't and paid a price. That has become food for thought for relationships elsewhere.
The Saints and Colts didn't travel the easy route. Sometimes it's harder to take a situation that's imperfect (see: Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis with the Saints) or downright uncomfortable (see: coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson with the Colts) and not blow it up.
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Granted, the situation in New Orleans appears to be far more stable than the one in Indianapolis. But both places experienced some chilling in 2015, either over the state of the roster, the development of the salary cap, the level of responsibility for wins and losses or simply day-to-day goals. In Payton's case, there were the added dimensions of other interested parties, not to mention having had a long tenure in New Orleans.
In both of those cities, it was up to someone – either ownership or some of the power brokers within a building – to make a decision. One year ago in San Francisco, York chose his side, and it was opposite of Harbaugh. But this year, Benson and Loomis chose to try and keep the band together, and to sit down and open a meaningful dialogue about the future with Payton. That made a difference. In Indianapolis, Irsay opted for a finite commitment to both Grigson and Pagano: two years to get it right, or the guillotine comes down on both (four-year contract extensions aside).
In a league where managerial continuity has grown thin in recent years (and three-year commitments seem to be the ceiling), it's a challenging choice. It can be argued that Payton and Loomis have had their run and it's time for something new. It can be debated that Grigson and Pagano are no longer a good match, and the healthy thing is to break them up. But the right thing isn't always opening up the door and trading someone away, or pushing them out with a pink slip or golden parachute.
So here we are, in a space on the opposite end of Harbaugh. Payton is a Super Bowl-winning coach. Pagano technically had three straight 11-5 seasons prior to 2015 (with Bruce Arians going 9-3 while subbing for Pagano in 2012 as he battled cancer). He went to an AFC title game in the 2014 season. He also rallied a terribly depleted team to 8-8 in 2015. From a results standpoint, these are not your typical "cut-them-loose" type of guys. But Harbaugh was dumped anyway. Payton and Pagano? They're going in the opposite direction – back up the mountain. And we'll get to see how that decision plays out.
Payton stays in New Orleans and appears headed for a contract extension. The front-office structure won't change for now, although a source with intimate knowledge of the Saints insists that assistant general manager Jeff Ireland will come out of this with a larger voice in the room on personnel matters. A future with Ireland as the general manager and Loomis as an overarching sports czar of both the Saints and NBA's New Orleans Pelicans (also owned by Benson) still appears to be a possibility.
It may not happen in the next few months. But that doesn't mean it won't happen in a year. Some may doubt that, but Payton isn't remaining with the Saints to continue the status quo. And the fact remains that the situations of both Loomis and Ireland have changed. Loomis' plate is getting more full by the year with dual roles in NFL and NBA teams. Meanwhile, Ireland is working hard to reclaim the personnel ground that once made him a general manager with the Miami Dolphins. Swapping some titles at some point to fit the power roles of each man only makes sense.
As for Pagano and Grigson, time will tell if some wounds heal. Regardless of what the duo tried to sell sitting alongside Irsay in their recent news conference, they are not bosom buddies. When a team owner gives extensions and tells everyone it's time to bury the hatchet – and gives a timeframe to get it right – the element of news conference economics takes over. You know what's being sold. You know the message. Brave faces are put on until internal problems get resolved.
The San Francisco 49ers were never able to do that. It's arguable that they never tried when things became most dire. And in the end, they let go of an elite coach who had taken them to within a few minutes of another Super Bowl. The relationships getting to that point might not have been perfect. The nerves might have been frayed. Parts of the message might have gotten old. But the results were worth fighting for.
One year later, that's clear. And believe that two other franchises bought into that lesson this offseason.
