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2015 NCAA Tournament Tips 101: Understanding March Madness

Brad Evans

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For years your ears have been bombarded by a foreign language spewed by sports junkies congregating in the office. Every March, talk of "brackets," "seeds" and "Cinderellas" around copy machines and water coolers are inescapable. Badgered repeatedly by the hoop heads to participate in their cutthroat tournament game, you – a diligent worker on the outside dedicated to fattening the company's bottom line but internally yearning for much, much more – have historically stiff-armed their advancements. After all, conformity is a threat to your work ethic and individuality.

Kentucky is the heavy favorite to win a crown much sweeter than its SEC Championship trophy. (USA TODAY Sports)
Kentucky is the heavy favorite to win a crown much sweeter than its SEC Championship trophy. (USA TODAY Sports)

However, this time each year you notice productivity around the office slips dramatically. Important meetings are skipped. Lunch rules are stretched. And TPS reports sit unresolved. Enough is enough. You too want to stick it to the man. More importantly, you want to silence the annoying, self-proclaimed experts at their own little game …

If you're an inexperienced bracketeer with hopes of dominating the office pool, this is a primer designed to bring you up to speed on the basic terminology and tips that encompass the NCAA tournament.

Lace up your Chucks.

BRACKET BASICS

To get familiar with the lingo, below are common words and phrases associated with the greatest sports event on the planet. Consider each bold-faced text. Have a highlighter handy.

What is the NCAA basketball tournament?

The tournament, nicknamed the "Big Dance," is a single-elimination postseason playoff between 68 Division I college teams. Games are played round-by-round over a three-week period until a single champion is crowned. Round 1, dubbed the "First Four" (code for, "you probably would've played more games in the NIT"), features four teams, two from high-major conferences and two from mid-majors. The winners of those games are slotted into positions ranging from the No. 9 to No. 16 seeds, establishing the traditional 64-team bracket (Note: First Four games will NOT be scored in the Tourney Pick 'Em). From that point on, each winner advances onto the following round, whittling the field down. After Round 2, 32 teams remain; Round 3, 16 teams (dubbed the Sweet 16); Round 4, eight teams (Elite Eight); Round 5, four teams (Final Four) and Round 6, two teams (national championship).

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What is March Madness?

This phrase – coined by H.V. Porter, an official with the Illinois High School Association in the late 1930s – references the excitement, passion and general zaniness the tournament creates. Upsets, buzzer beaters and raucous celebrations typically ensue. Submit to the "Madness" and you'll surely relish every riveting second.

How is the tournament field selected?

Gonzaga is one of the teams to claim an automatic berth this year after winning its conference tourney. (AP)
Gonzaga is one of the teams to claim an automatic berth this year after winning its conference tourney. (AP)

The process of selecting who plays in the tournament is arbitrary and explicit. Teams earn berths two ways: 1) By winning their conference tournament, an automatic berth (32 teams punch tickets this way); 2) By being handpicked by the committee, an at-large bid (36 teams). How the latter is determined is very complex. Think of a lengthy crossword puzzle without an answer key. Committee members scrutinize schools based on a variety of factors: RPI ranking (Ratings Percentage Index), strength of schedule, conference record, road/neutral court wins, overall level of play, etc. Other extreme factors such as major injuries to notable players and coaching absences are also taken into account. Suffice it to say, it's a complicated process. For more info feel free to thumb through the thoroughly confusing NCAA's principles and procedures manual. Calculus will seem like a walk in the park.

What is 'seeding?'

A seed is the position a team stands within a bracket. It has nothing to do with horticulture. Each region (four in total) houses teams ranked 1 (perceived best) to 16 (worst). In Round 1, the highest seeded teams are matched up with the lowest seeded team possible (e.g. 1 plays 16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, etc.). As the Committee puts it, the top priority for seeding is "to achieve reasonable competitive balance in each region of the bracket." Generally speaking, teams from smaller conferences, often called mid-majors, are ranked lower than teams from high-major or power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, etc.).

How do I devour the competition in this year's Yahoo Tournament Pick 'Em?

Signing up and participating in this year's Tourney Pick 'Em is easier than throwing a pepperoni pie into the oven. First, sign into your Yahoo! account. If you don't have one, start here. Second, create a free entry within the game. Be creative. Give it a flashy, playful name (e.g. King Tuttles). Third, select the winner of each game round-by-round by simply clicking on the school's name. Remember, however, First Four games are not counted. That's it.

TIP-INS – COMMON STRATEGIES THAT COULD NET YOU $50K

Now that you've graduated from dance school, it's time to smack down the competition. Below are five tips chock-full of pertinent info that could help you buy a seemingly endless supply of 7-Eleven Big Gulps.

Connecticut won last year's tournament. (AP)
Connecticut won last year's tournament. (AP)

1. Top dogs don't necessarily pack the most vicious bite
Since the tournament expanded to its current capacity in 1985, only 40.5-percent of No. 1 seeds have advanced onto the Final Four. During that span, only once have all four top seeds made it to the Mecca of college hoops (2008). Yes, elite squads have more favorable odds of making a deep run. This year, Kentucky is 1:1, even money, to win the whole enchilada per Vegas. But sage players aim for variety when penciling in teams on bracket lines. It's important to zig when others zag. Typically, the Final Four features two No. 1s and two lower seeded teams from the Nos. 2-4 range. Last season's Final Four, however, was a wee bit wacky. A No. 7 (UConn, the national champion), No. 8 (Kentucky), No. 2 (Wisconsin) and a No. 1 (Florida) made it.

2. Don't fall in love with too many Cinderellas
Selecting upsets is a bragging exercise. Everyone wants to boast to their buddies they had the stones to pick a team from the Ivy League. But becoming enamored with an abundance of underdogs can bloody your bracket in a hurry. Shocker specials do and will happen, but not nearly as often as many would lead you to believe. According to BracketScience.com, roughly 14 percent of top seeds per season are bounced early. That trend, though, is rising. Over the past five years, 19.2 percent of big boys have gone home crying. Last season, due to nutty runs by Dayton, Stanford and Tennessee, an astounding 21.4 percent of higher seeds were bitten by the upset bug. Obviously, don't pick by the book. Just be mindful underdogs only occasionally topple regional favorites, especially over multiple rounds. Here's a breakdown of Round 1 winning percentage for teams seeded No. 11 or lower since 1985 (Note: 12s are the most likely to wear a glass slipper): No. 11s (41-79, 34.2%); No. 12s (44-76, 36.7%); No. 13s (25-95, 20.8%); No. 14s (18-102, 15.0%); No. 15s (7-113, 5.8%); No. 16s (0-120, 0%)

3. Heads or tails? Flip-a-coin matchups
The NCAA selection committee, most seasons, does a masterful job matching close-seeded teams of similar skill levels. As a result, 8 vs. 9 and often 7 vs. 10 games are highly competitive crapshoots. In the modern tourney era, No. 9s have had a slight advantage, winning 50.8 percent of its opening-round matchups. Conversely, No. 10s have won only 39.2 percent of the time.

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4. Hit the books
Upon graduation, you may have vowed never to enter another classroom, physically or virtually, again. But research favors the champion. In this age of endless convenience, accessing information is just one click away. Immersing yourself in columns/videos on Yahoo! Sports is the first step for success. For the advanced, numbers-rich sites like KPISports.net, TeamRankings.com and KenPom.com are invaluable resources. Pools can be won accidentally, but increasing your knowledge on the subject matter only increases your chances.

Pac-12 champ Arizona is the West's No. 2 seed. (AP)
Pac-12 champ Arizona is the West's No. 2 seed. (AP)

5. Team balance wins championships … most of the time
If you comb through the NCAA tournament annals, one key predictive metric stands out among Final Four participants, a small differential between offensive and defensive efficiency. Well-rounded teams which force turnovers, guard the glass, generally frustrate opponents and score the basketball consistently are, predictably, difficult to eliminate. According to the ridiculously addictive site KenPom.com, the average efficiency differential (offense-to-defense) of Final Four teams from 2002-2014 was +1.34. The average offensive efficiency rank was 17.59, defensive was 16.25. Interestingly, the disparity among champions clocked in at minus-2.08. Of this year's batch of single-digit seeds ranked inside the top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency, Wichita St., Kentucky, Kansas and Arizona have the tightest separation in the those categories.