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Will the 2012 Chicago Cubs Avoid 100 Losses? Fan’s Observation

Yahoo Contributor Network

The Chicago Cubs have had one of their worst seasons in franchise history in 2012. The Cubs have a 46-70 record as they prepare for a four-game series against the Cincinnati Reds from August 17-19, 2012. A doubleheader is scheduled for August 18.

The Cubs' improved play during July had gotten them out of conversations about whether they would finish the season with 100 losses. Unfortunately, that controversy has returned following their August slump. There's even an outside chance that they could break the team record in losses.

Hard Times

The Cubs have felt the impact from losing many of their key players during the July 31 trade deadline. Since July 31, the Cubs have lost 12 of their past 15 games. Two of those victories came in a three-game home series against the Houston Astros. The Astros have a 12-48 road record. The Milwaukee Brewers and Cubs are the only other teams with fewer than 20 road victories.

100 Losses? Team Record For Losses?

The Cubs have a 46-70 record (.397 win percentage). To avoid 100 losses, the Cubs must finish the 2012 MLB season with a 17-29 record (.370 win percentage). To avoid breaking the team record for losses, they must finish with a 13-33 record (.283 win percentage). Compare that to the Houston Astros, who have a 39-80 record (.328 win percentage).

Upcoming Opponents

Italicized teams have an above-.500 record.

August 17-19: at Cincinnati Reds (Four Games)

August 20-22: at Milwaukee Brewers

August 24-26: Colorado Rockies

August 27-30: Milwaukee Brewers

August 31-2: San Francisco Giants

September 3-6: at Washington Nationals

September 7-9: at Pittsburgh Pirates

September 10-12: at Houston Astros

September 14-17: Pittsburgh Pirates

September 18-20: Cincinnati Reds

September 21-23: St. Louis Cardinals

September 25-27: at Colorado Rockies

September 28-30: at Arizona Diamondbacks

October 1-3: Houston Astros

The Giants' Melky Cabrera will be serving his 50-game suspension. The Nationals might not use Stephen Strasburg.

Will The Cubs Avoid 100 Losses?

Seven of nine opponents from August 31 through September 30 are in the heart of pennant races. The Cubs are fortunate to finish their season with a three-game home series against the Astros. That could be their "Get out of jail free card" as they limp to 63 victories (63-99).

The Cubs have 10 home games against a combination of the Rockies, Brewers and Astros. Those teams combine for a 51-120 road record (.298 win percentage). The Cubs also have a combination of nine road games against these teams.

The Cubs will avoid 100 losses with a 17-29 record. Let's assume they go 9-10 against the Rockies, Brewers and Astros. They'd have to go 8-19 (.296 win percentage) against the Reds (7x), Pirates (7x), Nationals (4x), Giants (3x), Cardinals (3x) and Diamondbacks (3x).

The Cubs' ability to avoid 100 losses could depend on their ability to defeat teams that they should still beat.

Joshua Huffman grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula as a Green Bay Packers and Chicago Cubs enthusiast. He immediately gained an admiration for Cubs fans after watching numerous games on WGN during the mid-90s. His favorite Cubs moment was Kerry Wood's(notes) 1-hitter, 20K extravaganza that was only denied of a no-hitter by Kevin Orie's defensive blunder. As a Packers and Cubs fan, he suffered through Steve Bartman and "4th & 26" in a span of three months. He can be found on Twitter HERE.

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