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2007 Looks/Touches Projections

Matt Buser
Yahoo Sports

The following projections are made with assumed 16-game health for the majority of players. In cases where players have a consistent history of missing games (DeShaun Foster, Darrell Jackson, etc), or a player's contributions will likely be limited in at least the early going of this coming season (Dominic Rhodes, Kevin Jones, etc), the projections are qualified based on the anticipation of time or effectiveness lost.

Touches is defined as the number of times a running back carried or caught the football.
Looks is defined as the number of times a player was the intended target of a pass.

Projected 2007 Touch Leaders
RANK PLAYER TEAM TOUCH
1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 402
2 Steven Jackson STL 399
3 Larry Johnson KC 391
4 Edgerrin James ARI 385
5 Joseph Addai IND 382
6 Willie Parker PIT 374
7 Frank Gore SF 356
8 Rudi Johnson CIN 347
9 Travis Henry DEN 345
10 Willis McGahee BAL 339
11 Ronnie Brown MIA 328
12 Cedric Benson CHI 323
13 Jamal Lewis CLE 316
14 Thomas Jones NYJ 315
15 Shaun Alexander SEA 313
16 Brandon Jacobs NYG 306
17 Brian Westbrook PHI 304
18 Carnell Williams TB 299
19 Laurence Maroney NE 291
20 Clinton Portis WAS 274
21 Ahman Green HOU 259
22 Reggie Bush NO 256
23 Julius Jones DAL 252
24 Marshawn Lynch BUF 251
25 DeAngelo Williams CAR 237
26 Vernand Morency GB 236
27 Deuce McAllister NO 235
28 LaMont Jordan OAK 232
29 Jerious Norwood ATL 226
30 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 225
31 Tatum Bell DET 222
32 LenDale White TEN 215
33 Fred Taylor JAC 212
33 Adrian Peterson MIN 212
35 Warrick Dunn ATL 207
35 Ladell Betts WAS 207
37 Marion Barber III DAL 193
37 DeShaun Foster CAR 193
39 Chester Taylor MIN 189
40 Anthony Thomas BUF 179
41 Brandon Jackson GB 177
42 Dominic Rhodes OAK 167
43 Ron Dayne HOU 164
44 Kevin Jones DET 152
45 Adrian Peterson CHI 137
46 Leon Washington NYJ 136
47 Reuben Droughns NYG 129
48 Michael Pittman TB 112
49 Mike Bell DEN 106
50 Lorenzo Booker MIA 104
Projected 2007 WR Look Leaders
RANK PLAYER TEAM LOOK
1 Torry Holt STL 173
2 Donald Driver GB 165
3 Terrell Owens DAL 156
4 Andre Johnson HOU 155
5 Anquan Boldin ARI 154
6 Chad Johnson CIN 152
7 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 150
8 Steve Smith CAR 149
9 Marvin Harrison IND 146
10 Laveranues Coles NYJ 144
11 Lee Evans BUF 142
12 Roy Williams DET 142
13 Reggie Wayne IND 142
14 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 139
15 Randy Moss NE 136
16 Plaxico Burress NYG 136
17 Javon Walker DEN 135
18 Chris Chambers MIA 135
19 Deion Branch SEA 130
20 Braylon Edwards CLE 129
21 Greg Jennings GB 129
22 Marques Colston NO 128
23 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 128
24 Joey Galloway TB 125
25 Santana Moss WAS 119
26 Mark Clayton BAL 118
27 Hines Ward PIT 114
28 Bernard Berrian CHI 112
29 Jerry Porter OAK 112
30 Joe Horn ATL 110
31 Derrick Mason BAL 107
32 D.J. Hackett SEA 107
33 Calvin Johnson DET 104
33 Vincent Jackson SD 104
35 Reggie Brown PHI 103
35 Troy Williamson MIN 98
37 Mike Furrey DET 97
37 Marty Booker MIA 96
39 Kevin Curtis PHI 96
40 Muhsin Muhammad CHI 95
41 Bobby Wade MIN 91
42 Devery Henderson NO 91
43 Darrell Jackson SF 91
44 Isaac Bruce STL 91
45 Terry Glenn DAL 89
46 Dwayne Jarrett CAR 88
47 Ronald Curry OAK 88
48 Santonio Holmes PIT 88
49 Ernest Wilford JAC 87
50 Brandon Jones TEN 86
51 Drew Bennett STL 82
52 Michael Jenkins ATL 80
53 Eddie Kennison KC 78
54 Matt Jones JAC 77
55 Michael Clayton TB 77
56 Keary Colbert CAR 76
57 Kevin Walter HOU 76
58 Steve Smith NYG 76
59 Arnaz Battle SF 76
60 Bobby Engram SEA 74
Projected 2007 TE Look Leaders
RANK PLAYER TEAM LOOK
1 Antonio Gates SD 126
2 Todd Heap BAL 116
3 Jeremy Shockey NYG 115
4 Alge Crumpler ATL 112
5 Chris Cooley WAS 111
6 Tony Gonzalez KC 104
7 Vernon Davis SF 98
8 Kellen Winslow CLE 91
9 Jason Witten DAL 91
10 L.J. Smith PHI 85
11 Benjamin Watson NE 84
12 Heath Miller PIT 67
13 Owen Daniels HOU 60
14 Bo Scaife TEN 59
15 Daniel Graham DEN 58
16 Dallas Clark IND 58
17 Eric Johnson NO 56
18 Marcus Pollard SEA 55
19 David Martin MIA 55
20 Randy McMichael STL 54
21 Greg Olsen CHI 53
22 Donald Lee GB 50
23 Desmond Clark CHI 49
24 Chris Baker NYJ 46
25 Marcedes Lewis JAC 45

RB Touches

Last season, Larry Johnson (457), Steven Jackson (436), and LaDainian Tomlinson (404) logged more than 400 touches. I'm only expecting a repeat performance from Tomlinson – Johnson will have a lighter load coming off an NFL record 416 carries and Jackson will see his role in the passing game scaled back a bit after finishing seventh in the league in receptions, but Tomlinson's workload should remain virtually unchanged.
Players who make the most substantial moves up the leaderboard – Joseph Addai (266 touches in 2006), Brandon Jacobs (107), and Laurence Maroney (197). Addai is now a featured back after sharing the load with Dominic Rhodes (223) last season – Edgerrin James averaged 372 touches from 2002-05 with the Colts. Jacobs – all 6-foot-4, 264 pounds of him – will be given every opportunity to receive the lion's share of the workload for the Giants, even if Reuben Droughns is a fairly respectable backup. Maroney may give way to Kevin Faulk on many passing downs, but he'll be on the field much more often than not now that Corey Dillon (214) is no longer a member of the same backfield.
There's never been more reason to grab two undisputed starters at RB1 with your first two picks, as plenty of platoon or platoon-like situations either already exist or appear very likely to be in place at some point during the season. They include: Atlanta (Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood), Carolina (DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams), Dallas (Julius Jones, Marion Barber III), Detroit (Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones (INJ)), Green Bay (Vernand Morency, Brandon Jackson), Jacksonville (Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew), Minnesota (Chester Taylor, Adrian Peterson), New Orleans (Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister), Oakland (LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes (SUSP)), and Washington (Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts).

WR Looks

I wouldn't anticipate the top five changing much from last season's final standings. Torry Holt has averaged 11.4 looks per game over the past two seasons; Brett Favre once again figures to lean heavily on Donald Driver (9.7 looks per game in 2005-06); everyone involved is happier when Terrell Owens gets plenty of looks; Andre Johnson remains the only reliable option at wideout in the Houston passing game; and new Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt has promised that Boldin will be at least as active in the offensive game-plan as he has been. The one change – don't expect Chris Chambers to once again see more looks than all but a few WR in the game.
Players among the biggest anticipated gainers for the upcoming season include: Deion Branch (101 looks in 2006), D.J. Hackett (67), Jerry Porter (4), Vincent Jackson (56), and Kevin Curtis (56). Branch and Hackett take over as WR1 and WR2 for the Seahawks with the departure of Darrell Jackson. Porter revolted against the Art Shell hiring in Oakland and barely saw the field in 2006, but he's back as the WR1 for the new regime. The 6-foot-5, 241 pound Jackson emerged late last season and is expected to be a solid WR1 for Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Curtis should see plenty of action as the WR2 in Philly – Donte' Stallworth averaged 6.5 looks in 12 games at the position for the Eagles last season.

TE Looks

There's little reason to expect Antonio Gates (120 looks in 2006) to finish anywhere but comfortably at the top of the TE leaderboard.
Notable TE with question marks: Alge Crumpler (103) is as physically gifted as any player at his position, but a new offense and a new QB make it hard to project his numbers. Tony Gonzalez isn't getting any younger, his looks have declined in consecutive seasons (from 148 to 116 to last season's 103), and the Chiefs' QB situation is very unsettled. Kellen Winslow is coming off of yet another surgical procedure on his knee.