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  • ‘Deep Thoughts’ and Cheap Thoughts: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

    For every postseason matchup, Ball Don't Lie's resident dummy will offer a topically appropriate entry from the best-selling series of "Deep Thoughts" books written by legendary humorist Jack Handey, plus some of his own original thoughts on the playoff series. The combination will cost you literally nothing; we suggest you use the savings to purchase one of Mr. Handey's life-changing books.

    No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder

    "Life is a constant battle between the heart and the brain. But guess who wins. The skeleton."

    The remarkable resurgence of Spurs centerpiece Tim Duncan — he of the Frank Castle knee brace and the skel-toe adidas — has been a story worth marveling over this postseason. The 36-year-old looked off-the-vine fresh during the Spurs' straight-sets wins over the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers in the first two rounds, averaging 19.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists per 36 minutes of playoff burn, hitting 54 percent of his field goals and just under 80 percent of his free throws, and generally seeming about as sharp and dominant and as he has since San Antonio's last title run, way back in 2007.

    It's tempting to suggest that, with Duncan playing at this level, there isn't a front line in the world that can slow him down. That, however, would ignore the yeoman's work that Thunder bigs Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka did against the two-time MVP on the defensive end this season.

    Both Ibaka and Perkins held Duncan well below his per-minute season marks in scoring and field-goal percentage during the three Spurs-Thunder contests this season, of which San Antonio won two. While it's tough to use those matchups as an accurate predictor of how the series writ large will unfold — San Antonio was without Manu Ginobili for all three games, started long-since-jettisoned Richard Jefferson in the first two and didn't get now-integral substitutes Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson into the fold until after the teams' season series ended — it's worth noting that in one area in which the principals will remain the same, Duncan struggled to a 15-of-42 (35.7 percent) shooting mark in 86 total minutes.

    That includes a particularly bad 7-of-16 (43.8 percent) mark at the rim in the three games combined, about 20 percent below Duncan's season-average conversion rate on up-close tries, according to Hoopdata's shot-location statistics, and significantly behind the bounty he got against the Jazz and Clippers (22-of-34, 64.7 percent). More than any other team left in the postseason (and perhaps more than any other team in the league), the Thunder are equipped to limit Duncan's scoring effectiveness.

    The problem is, the Spurs don't really need Duncan to score to win. Duncan has scored 15 points or less 31 times this season; San Antonio is 23-8 in those games. It's happened nine times since St. Patrick's Day — sort of an unofficial division point in the Spurs' season, since the March 17 loss to the Dallas Mavericks marked the first time they played with both Jackson and Ginobili back in the lineup — and they're 8-1. Part of that has to do with the brilliance of Tony Parker, who averaged 17.3 points and 6.7 assists per game without Duncan this year, who has been an absolute killer during the Spurs' lengthy winning streak, and who frequently seems capable of penetrating at will and putting defenses at the mercy of an offensive system that so often responds to defensive answers by changing the questions.

    As Zach Lowe of SI.com's The Point Forward blog noted in a great breakdown of Parker's play against the Thunder defense this season, Oklahoma City has seemed to want to cut off Parker's angles of penetration in the Spurs' bread-and-butter pick-and-roll, conceding semi-contested perimeter jumpers by San Antonio's shooters off outside dishes rather than allowing Parker to get into the teeth of their defense, compromise its integrity and allow wide-open jumpers by San Antonio's shooters off his drive-and-kick game. Within that framework, Parker has been able to get his own offense, averaging 23.7 points per game against OKC this year (including a big 42-point explosion at the beginning of April) while still handing out 7.7 assists per contest.

    Russell Westbrook is an amazing player who will work his backside off on defense in this series. And if he gets in trouble, Thunder coach Scott Brooks can switch some more size onto Parker — defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha, Sixth Man of the Year James Harden or scoring champ Kevin Durant, the trio that combined to harass Kobe Bryant in Oklahoma City's second-round win over the Los Angeles Lakers. But Parker's shown an ability to beat whatever defense OKC, and anyone else, has devised for him this year, whether with a bucket of his own or a dish to a teammate.

    If Parker can continue to operate roughly as he has been, creating for himself or for Pop's seemingly endless ranks of shooters, then it's hard to see a way that Oklahoma City can slow San Antonio down enough to win four times in seven games, so long as Duncan is still able to hold down the myriad defensive tasks he performs so well. And he has been against Oklahoma City this season, rebounding like crazy and anchoring a defensive unit that has locked the Thunder down to a sub-Bobcats offensive rating (number of points scored per 100 possessions) while he's on the floor, as detailed by Aaron McGuire at Spurs blog 48 Minutes of Hell. Yes, the Thunder have allowed a tick under 101 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end this postseason, which would have been fifth-best in the NBA over the course of the regular season, but they've played nine games against Dallas' No. 22-ranked offense and the Lakers' No. 10-ranked offense; now, they're facing the best in the business, and that matters.

    That said, I don't think the Spurs are going to shut the Thunder down, either.

    Oklahoma City stars Durant (22.7 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting), Westbrook (22.3 points on 44.8 percent shooting) and Harden (19.3 points on 59.4 percent shooting) have all scored well against San Antonio this year, and I expect them to get theirs again here. The Thunder will undoubtedly pose more offensive problems for the Spurs than either of their first two opponents did. San Antonio's difficulties defending the pick-and-roll game, which they snuffed out well against the Clippers, could rear their ugly head — they're still not a great pick-and-roll defensive team, and the Thunder were even better at generating points there than a healthy Chris Paul's Clips were during the regular season. And while defenders like Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard will do their level best to make life difficult for the Thunder's dominant wings, San Antonio doesn't have enough excellent perimeter stoppers to extinguish OKC's fire-starters entirely. (Not many teams do.)

    But I think Pop would live with that level of productivity from Durant, Westbrook and Harden if no one else is really getting off — Ibaka's ability to provide a pressure release on pick-and-pop mid-range jumpers could be huge for Brooks' offense — and I think San Antonio can make that happen. While I'll allow that the Spurs' recent improvement on the defensive end has come at the expense of an unremarkable Jazz side and a hobbled Clippers team, the improvement has still been ridiculous; they've held two top-10 regular-season offenses to 95.3 points per 100 possessions over the past eight games, and the tightening of defensive screws hasn't prevented San Antonio from punishing their opponents' bottom-third-of-the-league defenses, posting a sterling 110.1-per-100 offensive rating in the playoffs.

    Oklahoma City will be much better than what San Antonio has faced, but will they create enough problems for a legitimately improved defense to generate enough points to outstrip a rollicking offense four times in seven games? I just don't see it. The Spurs will lose during this series for the first time in nearly seven weeks, but they won't lose four times. The skeleton might not be the series' most valuable player, but the skeleton's not alone; this time around, he's got an army, and all the hearts and brains in Oklahoma City won't be able to turn back the horde.

    PREDICTION: Spurs in 6.

  • Lamar Odom to New York? Dwight Howard on the move? For now, it’s all talk

    Lamar Odom, master of his destiny and not at all a creature of habit and/or willing participant in whatever the heck Khloe Kardashian/E! Network/Ryan Seacrest Productions tell him to do, might want to play for the New York Knicks in 2012-13 and beyond.

    Dwight Howard, ruler of worlds, might be as good as gone from Orlando this summer, because the Magic's ownership group appears to have soured on dealing with the guy.

    Both rumors make plenty of sense, in basketball terms and in consideration of the respective players' personality, and history. Odom is from New York, cannot stand playing outside of major markets, and is ultra-sensitive who he runs with and under what circumstances. Howard, a year and a half removed from beginning to turn down contract extensions from the Orlando Magic, should have worn out his welcome with the team by now, and it makes sense for Orlando to have decided to move on. But, even in late May and just five weeks removed from the official start of the offseason, is any of this worth leaning on? Come on, guy.

    Odom's plea is by far the less significant of the two. The New York City native has played with both Los Angeles teams since entering the NBA in 1999, along with a season in Miami, and a disastrous stint with the Dallas Mavericks — the defending champion, always on TV, very famous Dallas Mavericks — in 2011-12. With his options limited and very few teams interested in a 32-year-old who shot 35 percent last year and couldn't be bothered to make it a full year with the Mavs despite plenty of chances, of course the offensively starved Knicks seem like a perfect retreat for a player looking to turn it all around.

    There's just one obstacle, though. Actual NBA contracts, including the one Odom signed back in the summer of 2009.

    Lamar may have been dismissed from the Mavericks two months ago, but he's still under contract with the team for the rest of this season, and technically for 2012-13. Though the $8.5 million he's due to make in 2012-13 is only guaranteed for $2.4 million, and the Mavericks will certainly decline to pick up Odom's team option for the full amount for myriad reasons that go beyond his play in 2011-12, he still is a Maverick until July.

    And between now and July, the Mavs are shopping the veteran. Which means LO is in no way in control of his destiny, here. Even if "New York is somewhere he can be comfortable."

    The Mavericks took what seemed to be a low-risk chance on Lamar in December because his all-around talents would have seemingly fit in swimmingly with a veteran Mavs team already featuring borderline position-less veterans like Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion. Sadly for us lovers of all things orange and leathery, it didn't work out. Dallas' commitment goes beyond that, though, because all along the team has been clearing cap space for the 2013 offseason, one that could see the team attempt to pounce on trading for Howard, or adding Deron Williams in the free-agent market.

    This is why the team is going to be proactive with Odom, in the days leading up to the June 29 deadline to either pick up Odom's full deal for 2012-13, or buy him out at the cost of that $2.4 million. If Williams continues to hint that he doesn't want any part of the borderline-rebuilding Mavericks, the team could ship him to another team desperate to cut salary, knowing they can send out around $9 million in contracts and only end up paying $2.4 million (once they decline Odom's option) in return. Toss in the ability to pick up draft picks or add to that cap space by including Marion or Brendan Haywood in any deal, and you can see why the Mavericks are more than in charge, in this situation.

    And Odom, despite his representative-placed plea ("It definitely won't be the fiasco that it was last year. He's won championships in the past and he wants to win another." — mine eyes hurt from all the rollin') isn't really in charge of any of this, anytime soon. And even if he hits the open market, he'll have to take on a minimum salary from the Knicks, and not even a part of the team's mid-level exception — because the Knicks will likely be looking for more shooters and guard help, instead of a player whose skill set is already pretty well represented on the Knicks. Again, Lamar's not really in charge here.

    To a lesser extent, the same goes for both the Orlando Magic and Dwight Howard, somehow concurrently, in their dilemma.

    It more than makes sense, as you read Chris Sheridan's report, to believe that the Magic are sick to death of Howard's hemming and hawing. We were begging the team last year to pull the trigger with the MVP candidate, because it was more than obvious ages ago that he was in no hurry to re-sign with the only team's he's been a part of since being drafted first overall in 2004. And even if the Magic secure a fantastic win-now coach between now and training camp — say, a Stan Van Gundy-type — the team's limited roster only gives them an upset's worth of a chance to knock out a Miami or Chicago in the playoffs this time next year in the final weeks of Howard's contract.

    So, you trade the guy. Right?

    Of course, but we're not there yet. Sources around the Magic (who would also have great interest in trying to sway Howard by leaking fake trade rumors) might claim to have made their minds up, but they're ages away from figuring any of this out. Without a working general manager — no, CEO Alex Martins is not a basketball guy — the team has little indication as to how the market is set, and will be set. And as stupid as the team was to drag this saga out while hanging onto the mercurial Howard, they'd be stupid to make up their minds before the offseason hits.

    Because things could change. Even if we've decided, without reflex, that Howard won't be back after the summer of 2013, making a final decision before prodding is the height of absurdity.

    What if the team's finances are better served to keep Howard around (after all, he was the guy that famously put pen to paper in March to pick up his player option for 2012-13) and fill the seats in that stadium through at least the first round of next year's playoffs, considering how un-movable his teammates are in the trade market?

    What if the trade market for Howard, because teams know he's on the block this summer, could be more rewarding next February, in the days leading up to the trade deadline?

    What if going quiet with this, as the Utah Jazz did in dealing Deron Williams 15 months ago, is the way to go?

    What if, as it is with Odom, teams are waiting to see how the May 30 draft lottery shakes out? Or the actual draft, on June 28? What if they're waiting on getting a better idea of where the NBA's cap limit will settle into, even if news of that hits after Odom's June 29 deadline?

    What if this is all nonsense, until things shape out?

    Aye, you're on to something there.

    The conference finals start this weekend. The season still has a few weeks to go, and we're five weeks away from anything substantial happening in the 2012 offseason. Teams and players have an idea of what they'd like to do between now and the start of training camp this fall, but beyond that nobody has a clue. And that goes for even your most plugged-in player representative, front office source, and the writers that happily represent their side of the story in order to reel in hits.

    Apologies for the cold water take, but you're as plugged in as anyone. It's early. There's still a lot to figure out, and nothing is as simple as it seems save for the simple way of saying that we've still got a long way to go before anything settles into anything resembling reality. Much less a roster.

    Enjoy your hot stove league, even in this heat. Just understand that nothing is anywhere near certain at this early stage. If that bores you, we understand.

    Get in a nap, then. We'll see you in July, and have a bit of fun.

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