AccuScore: Devin Harris vs. Jason Kidd
AccuScore has simulated the current NBA season under the premise last season’s deadline deal involving Jason Kidd and Devin Harris didn’t happen in order to guage the long-term impact of the trade. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's AccuScore.com's “next-season” analysis of the Harris-Kidd trade.
Devin Harris has been spectacular for the surprisingly good 9-8 New Jersey Nets. Jason Kidd has been statistically good as well and the Mavs are also 9-8.
Devin Harris has put up 25 points and 6 assists per game on nearly 49 percent shooting. Jason Kidd has been shooting very well from 3-point range and is an excellent rebounder at PG. Kidd has the edge in assists, but Harris has the slight edge in assist-to-turnover ratio.
|SEASON TO DATE||FG%||FT%||3P%||AST||TO||AST/TO||REB||PTS|
So the question is how would the Mavs perform if they can undo this trade at this point in the season?
Kidd holds his own vs. Harris
It is somewhat surprising to see that the Mavs, currently 9-8, only win an average of 1 more game per 10,000 simulations for the rest of the season with Devin Harris. Their chances of winning the division and making the playoffs are slightly higher (+3 percentage points) with Harris.
When you factor in age, there is no question that Dallas would have been better off with Harris. But on the court this season, Kidd is holding his own. While the Mavs would be better with Harris, the difference is not as big as some might think given how good Harris has been with New Jersey for this season. The Mavs have plenty of scoring options with Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry. Kidd is a pass-first point guard who is a superior 3-point shooter (by the numbers), which helps the Mavs win nearly as many games as they would have had they kept Harris.
The Nets need Harris and his dynamic scoring. Their projected wins drop from 43 with Harris to just 38 with Kidd. Harris is best as a primary scoring option which the Nets need more than Dallas does.