Down under in a hurry
More world championships: Scores and schedule
A 5-0 record in Group D gave the U.S. basketball team a favorable matchup in the single-elimination medal round of the FIBA world championships. Next up for Team USA is an Australia team that lost three of its five games and barely advanced out of pool play.
After beating Brazil 83-77 in their Group C opener, the Aussies lost to Turkey, Greece and Lithuania before routing Qatar to advance to the next round. Australia won't last long in single-elimination play if the Americans keep executing Mike Krzyzewski's game plan.
Team USA's plan of attack will be the same: play a pressure defense and create a fast pace. Australia has averaged 20 turnovers per game in the tournament (second only to Qatar's 24.6 average), so the Americans should be able to force some mistakes and generate some easy points. If the U.S. can accomplish both tasks, the game will be over. Australia simply doesn't have the scoring punch to hang with the Americans.
Before pouring in 93 points against outmanned Qatar, the Aussies were held to 63.7 points a game during their three-game losing streak. Point guard C.J. Bruton leads the team in scoring at 13 per game, but the name American fans will recognize is Andrew Bogut. The Milwaukee Bucks center is Australia's No. 2 scorer (11.4) and leading rebounder.
Krzyzewski employed a platoon system for the first few games of pool play and will most likely go with the same strategy against Australia. The 10-man rotation has allowed the USA to apply maximum defensive pressure for the entire 40 minutes each game, thus creating the tempo that results in easy points. Only when Italy gave the U.S. a scare did Coach K change his strategy and play his top players exclusively.
The only way for Australia to force the Americans away from that platoon system is to take care of the ball, make threes and control the glass. It's a major chore for Australia and a good opening medal round contest for Team USA.
Prediction: USA 110, Australia 78.
Of the remaining round-of-16 matchups, the most intriguing looks to be Italy vs. Lithuania. The Italians looked poised and confident against Team USA in a 94-85 loss and had no trouble handling defensive pressure. In fact, Italy is averaging only 11 turnovers per contest in the tournament.
The Italians play a controlled pace and will try to beat Lithuania with penetration and kickouts for open three-pointers. They're led by fearless wing scorer Marco Belinelli, who poured in 25 points against the Americans. Lithuania, meanwhile, lost a pair of close games to Greece and Turkey in Group C, but it has some firepower and experience with NBA veterans Arvydas Macijauskas, Darius Songaila and Linas Kleiza. The Lithuanians want to create a faster game and make it a higher-scoring affair.
Along with the Americans, the favorites among the remaining 16 teams are Spain and Argentina. Led by Pau Gasol, the Spaniards took apart Group B and were barely challenged. Spain will take on Serbia and Montenegro – a team that is talented but is not the power it once was – in Round 1 and should advance easily.
Gasol is surrounded by experienced players, many with NBA experience. Jose Calderon plays for the Toronto Raptors, as will Jorge Garbajosa next season. Sergio Rodriguez is a Jason Williams type that was drafted by the Portland Trail Blazers in June, and Rudy Fernandez is a longtime European star.
Argentina, meanwhile, has all the familiar faces that beat Team USA in Athens two years ago: Manu Ginobili, Pepe Sanchez, Andres Nocioni, Walter Herrmann, Carlos Delfino and Luis Scola. The Argentineans play hard, unselfishly and very well without the ball, and American fans can hardly forget all the backdoor cuts Argentina made in its Olympic semifinal win over the USA. Nothing has changed – you'd better be ready when you play this club. Argentina also went 5-0 in winning Group A and made quick work of New Zealand in Round 1.
Greece, the defending European champion, also went 5-0 in pool play but lost one of its stars (Nikos Zisis) to broken facial bones earlier in the tournament. The Greeks face Yao Ming and China on Saturday.
