Jockeying for position
Last April, the Phoenix Suns were well on their way to a Pacific Division title and locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference as they finished up the final couple of weeks of the season.
With games against the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers looming, Phoenix had the opportunity to see up close two of its potential first-round playoff opponents. The Kings and Lakers were locked in a battle for the seventh and eighth seeds, and the Suns knew they would play whoever finished in the seven slot.
Because Sacramento was on fire at the time, playing at a high level and riding a wave of momentum, L.A. looked like the more desirable choice as an opening-round opponent. After all, Phoenix had handled the Lakers without much trouble all season long.
So the Suns decided to take care of business.
They knocked off the Kings at Arco Arena, sending Sacramento to the eighth spot in the standings. A few days later, Phoenix sat Steve Nash down at Staples Center, not very interested in beating L.A. and allowing the Kings back into the seventh spot. The message? Mike D'Antoni was basically saying, "We want you, Kobe. You can't beat us."
With that in mind, there is some serious scoreboard watching going on these days as the regular season winds down and the playoff picture becomes clearer. Every club is quietly hoping for certain matchups and maybe even playing a bit harder – or softer – in order to ensure the playoff positioning it wants.
Here are five themes to watch as we whittle down the NBA's version of bracketology.
1. Avoid Miami.
No one in the East wants to play the Miami Heat, and why would they? Shaquille O'Neal is dominating games, Dwyane Wade might play in the postseason if he's healthy and Pat Riley has more rings than Liberace. These guys are the defending champs and there's a ton of playoff experience on the roster.
Miami is seeded sixth at the moment but could finish as high as third. That means the two teams at the top of the East standings – Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers – are desperate to stay there, which would mean matchups against the No. 7 and 8 seeds.
Watch the standings down the stretch of the season, and keep an eye on the Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards. Those teams are all possible first-round opponents for the Heat, and if it comes down to it, any one of the three might do something to avoid that fate.
2. Avoid San Antonio.
The San Antonio Spurs are pretty much locked into the third seed in the West, unless something dramatic happens. That means whomever is the sixth seed will be matched up with them.
Currently, the Lakers and Denver Nuggets are fighting it out for the sixth and seventh spots, and it looks like L.A. has the inside track to finish with a better record. But do the Lakers want to play San Antonio, with its championship rings and lockdown defense? Or would they prefer to face the Suns, who they put a major scare into last year? I'm guessing both Phil Jackson and George Karl would prefer to face Phoenix in the first round than San Antonio.
Denver is coming off a 24-point pounding of the Suns last week, and the Nuggets are a running club. A matchup with the Suns is probably more desirable, meaning that the seventh seed could be better than the sixth. Hmmm.
3. Visit Salt Lake City.
Not that the Utah Jazz are bad. In fact, they're a very good team and they're going to win their division. But Utah has been cold lately, losing four straight games last week, and they're young without much playoff experience.
If your choices are Phoenix, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio or Utah, who would you want to play? Thought so.
It looks like the Houston Rockets will be matched up with the Jazz in a 4 vs. 5 matchup in Round 1, and the Rockets have a chance to move past Utah in the standings and secure home court. The two clubs meet twice more this season, and both games figure to be hotly contested.
4. If you're good enough to look down the road, do it.
Teams that can afford to look past the first round would like to be in their preferred side of the bracket, avoiding the best teams. Remember a year ago, when Dallas and San Antonio played that epic series in the second round? I realize that was due to the playoff format, which has been changed this year to avoid that snafu again. Still, there are a couple of preferences for certain teams as they head into the playoffs.
For example, if Miami ends up with a four or five seed, perhaps Cleveland and Detroit would prefer to be a two seed than a one. That way Shaquille O'Neal and company can be avoided until the last possible moment in the conference finals.
In the West, San Antonio has recently opened up a lead on Utah for the third seed. The Spurs have played themselves into a position of playing the Suns in the second round rather than Dallas. San Antonio feels much more confident playing Phoenix than Dallas, so the Spurs will do their best to hold onto that No. 3 slot.
5. And finally, don't miss your chance at a dynasty.
The teams at the bottom of the league standings have something to play for (or not play for) as well: the lottery. If Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are as good as advertised – and available in the draft – then those extra ping pong balls are invaluable.
Could there be a funny looking, late-season loss by Boston or Memphis to improve the odds in the sweepstakes? I don't know, you tell me. But this could be a franchise-changing lottery this year, so I wouldn't put a mini-tank job out of the question.
