The Oden ticket

Since the institution of the NBA's draft lottery in 1985, how many of the No. 1 picks truly became "franchise-changing" players? Not just All-Stars, but guys who won championships, sold tickets and became the identity of their respective teams? My count is three: David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan.

If you take away the "championship" requirement, then you can add a few more names: Patrick Ewing, LeBron James, Allen Iverson and Yao Ming. All four not only became All-Stars, but they were names that were synonymous with teams they played for. They were, in effect, the franchise (with apologies to Stevie "Franchise" Francis).

There are a few other No. 1 picks who came close to cracking my second group – Elton Brand maybe, Brad Daugherty, Chris Webber. They're all great players, but not the kind of guys who could single handedly lift a franchise on his shoulders. In fact, the majority of the list of top choices below is made up of guys that may as well have been drafted, say, fourth or seventh or 10th in their respective drafts, given the impact they had.

Take a look:

1985: Patrick Ewing
1986: Brad Daugherty
1987: David Robinson
1988: Danny Manning
1989: Pervis Ellison
1990: Derrick Coleman
1991: Larry Johnson
1992: Shaquille O'Neal
1993: Chris Webber
1994: Glenn Robinson
1995: Joe Smith
1996 Allen Iverson
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
1999: Elton Brand
2000: Kenyon Martin
2001: Kwame Brown
2002: Yao Ming
2003: LeBron James
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2006: Andrea Bargnani

The point is, winning the lottery isn't always what it's cracked up to be. More often than not, you're going to end up with a player who turns into an All-Star but not one who will win multiple rings and end up in the Hall of Fame.

Watching Monday night's NCAA championship game, though, it was apparent that Greg Oden has a chance to be one of those franchise changers.

Whether or not he enters his name into this June's draft is another question, but it's hard to imagine Oden not being the first player selected. Texas' Kevin Durant might have sneaked ahead of Oden on some people's list during the regular season, but Oden's dominance against Florida – even in a losing cause – more than likely secured his position as the first pick should he choose to come out.

Oden is incredibly long and active, and his timing, size and athleticism give him the potential to be the best defensive center in the NBA for years to come (particularly in the modern era where centers are almost non-existent). No matter how he progresses offensively – and he should make big strides in the next few years – Oden is a man you can build an entire franchise around. The teams who are currently at the bottom of the NBA standings know that, of course. They are by and large playing out the string before they sit back and watch one of the most anticipated lotteries in NBA history on May 22.

Fans ask me all the time whether or not teams "tank" games late in the season in order to improve their chances of getting the top pick. Remember, that's the reason the lottery was instituted in 1985 – to avoid that situation. The truth is, players don't think much about where their team will draft. They're more concerned with their own jobs, as they should be. Half the players on a bad team won't be around the next season anyway.

Management may think a little differently, of course, with all that is at stake. General managers would much rather lose a few meaningless games late in the season if it means ending up with a Hall of Fame player who will result in future glory for the franchise. But other than maybe holding out a player who has an injury of some sort, there really isn't much that a G.M. can do to alter the draft process.

And as far as coaches are concerned, they have little to no job security, so they're trying to win every game possible. Most of them are trying to build winning cultures with their teams, so sending the wrong message could be disastrous to their own careers.

Ultimately, no coach or G.M. can openly try to help his team lose and feel good about it. There's a karmic effect that everyone feels. Teams are going to keep playing and try to win games and eventually let the chips – or the pingpong balls, in this case – fall where they may.

Still, Oden's looming presence has many NBA fans fixated on the bottom of the standings as the season winds down. Who will end up with the No. 1 pick? The Boston Celtics, Memphis Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks have the best chances right now. The Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Seattle SuperSonics or Portland Trail Blazers? We'll see. Maybe we'll have an upset, with one of the "better" lottery teams beating the odds.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course. History has shown that. But Oden just might be a player in the Duncan/Robinson/Shaq mode. And if he is, then the fate of one franchise's future could be altered completely in these last few games of the season.