Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Timing, timing, and timing. 

About a year ago this time, I started to put together this column, ranking all the NBA's personnel bosses. And though I still believe the rankings and the words that go along with the rankings to be spot on as far as June of 2007 goes, the whole darn thing has gone topsy-turvy in the months since.

That's not to say I was wrong in my estimation of certain GMs. In fact, though several of the lower-ranked GMs are the top candidates for this year's Executive of the Year Award, I even took in a little heat for giving the once-beleaguered GMs too much credit. The venerable Ken Tremendous of FireJoeMorgan.com told me that I ranked Boston's Danny Ainge too high, and I heard the same thing about Laker boss Mitch Kupchak.

Meanwhile, Chicago's John Paxson (a lofty fifth in that list) now has Bulls fans wondering if he should be allowed to oversee the next rebuilding phase that Chicago will have to endure. And I wrote that thing less than a year ago!

It all comes down to timing, having the right assets, having the flexibility to work with those assets, being able to deal from a position of strength, timing, and also timing. Dig:

In the summer of 2006, Paxson had a cadre of young talent, lottery picks in 2006 and 2007 coming from the New York Knicks (both were tradeable, as Chicago had its own pick in 2006), expiring contracts, and a tradeable (non-BYC) contract in Tyson Chandler to move. He offered just about all of that to Minnesota GM Kevin McHale for Kevin Garnett, and was turned down. McHale thought his team to be one 6-2 shooting guard away from another playoff run, and wasn't ready to dump KG.

In February of 2007, Paxson had the same young talent, the impending lottery pick, a hefty expiring contract (the same size as, say, Kwame Brown's current expiring deal), and he offered just about all of that to Memphis for Pau Gasol. No dice, said Jerry West, who didn't want to leave the cupboard bare as he moved on.

The summer of 2007 and February of 2008 hit, and Paxson has no lottery picks left to deal (that he knew of at the time), no expiring contracts left to offer, and all his sizeable contracts (Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni) are BYC deals, and tough to negotiate with.

Meanwhile, Ainge and Kupchak send similar but crummier (instead of potentially LaMarcus Aldridge and Joakim Noah, you get Gerald Green and Javaris Crittenton!) packages to Minnesota (now ready to deal) and Memphis (now ready to deal) for KG and Gasol, and they'll be fighting over the Executive of the Year trophy as a result.

From the dregs, to the top. And for Paxson, the opposite. Boston and Los Angeles might meet in the Finals, and the Bulls are back in the lottery. Timing.

And it's Danny Ainge's time. Drafting every year without the benefit of a lottery pick (part of that is his fault, as Ainge foolishly parlayed his 2006 pick to Portland for Sebastian Telfair), Ainge put together a stable of young talent; talent that probably should have made the playoffs in 2006-07 had injuries and a thirst for Greg Oden not hit.

On top of that, he grabbed Theo Ratliff, whose massive contract (among the last that Portland handed out during the Jail Blazer era, not that Ratliff was a miscreant of any sort) expires this summer. Using the lottery picked earned from an awful 2006-07 showing, while recognizing that a rebuilding SuperSonics team doesn't need an eight-figure contract being shoveled to a guy on the wrong side of 30, Ainge nabbed Ray Allen.

And he didn't have to give up Ratliff. That was huge. That's the first thing that struck us upon seeing the Seattle/Boston trade details on the wire. That meant he was still in the race for Garnett.

And if Ainge didn't get Garnett, then no worries. It's not an ideal team, but a triptych of Allen, Al Jefferson, and go-to man Paul Pierce could do some damage in the East.

But he did get Garnett. And he didn't have to give up Rajon Rondo, and he didn't have to give up Leon Powe.

(Notice a trend here? Often times, it's who you don't have to give up, because Powe's absence in the details of the Boston/Minnesota trade was the first thing that stood out to me as well, leaving Boston with a modicum of depth up front.)

Add Allen, and Garnett wants to play with you. Add KG, and Sam Cassell, Eddie House, and James Posey want to play with you. That takes you from thin to passable to workable to really, really, deep. And it's just a couple of small choices that lead to an avalanche.

And that avalanche has Boston atop the league. And it will result in Danny Ainge taking in a deserved Executive of the Year Award.

digg delicious
more

39 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. khandor
    1. Posted by khandor Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I agree 100%.
    Danny Ainge has done THE best job of any GM this season.
    In fact ... for this one regular season ... D-Ainge has done the single best job in the History of the NBA.
    That's like ... forever.
  2. uoftorange
    2. Posted by uoftorange Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I think Ainge did a good job, I fail to see how he did a great job. He offered the best package because he had the best package to offer for KG. He also traded a top 5 pick for old Ray Allen, and Allen has played well, but is clearly on the career decline. He gets no credit for Paul Pierce being there, I for one think Pierce wasn't traded because there wasn't a good enough offer for him, not necessarily because he wasn't offered up (no proof, just a gut feeling, so it's probably not worth much).
    Meanwhile, Daryl Morey fleeced the best GM in the sport in Buford and the spurs to get Luis Scola. Traded nothing for Mike James and paid nothing for Steve Francis. And I only put those two guys up as a good move because while they didn't provide much help, they cost little to nothing to get so no harm no foul and they also pushed Rafer Alston to get his head removed from his rear and have a career year. He traded Bonzi Wells (a guy well liked by the team but for all the wrong reasons) and Mike James for a guy that had more in his tank in Bobby Jackson and one less year on his contract than James. He also has worked the free agent market late with flair, adding players that have potential to help, including Mike Harris who has been huge off the bench with energy. Did I mention he stole Carl Landry as well? Or that he got under the cap before the trading deadline was over?
  3. KD
    3. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    San Antonio had a need, and Morey came swooping in to relieve it, and got Scola.
    Seattle and Minnesota had needs, and Ainge came swooping in and got freakin' KG and Ray Allen.
  4. hardwoodparoxysm
    4. Posted by hardwoodparoxysm Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    KD, you know I love you.
    http://hardwoodparoxysm.blogspot.com/2008/04/why-danny-ainge-is-in-no-way-shape-or.html
  5. uoftorange
    5. Posted by uoftorange Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I love your work man, but I just completely disagree here. I don't really think Ainge did much of anything but get lucky for repeatedly messing up.
  6. Hitish N
    6. Posted by Hitish N Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    khandor; I do not agree. Danny Ainge hit the perfect combination of timing, luck, and money. As far as great skill, I would still favor Paxton. And even more so Dumars and R.C. Buford. Who both scout players from all corners of the globe to bring great talent at affordable prices.
  7. KD
    7. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I'm not saying that the KG trade was a steal, that it was even a fair trade, or that anyone got hosed.
    In the context of this season, and the offseason that leads up to it, Ainge did the best job. Were they obvious choices? Did he get KG because the Wolves didn't want Lamar Odom or Shawn Marion's contracts? Yes, and yes. Doesn't matter.
    Was Ainge lucky? Yes, and that's why I brought up the timing aspect. McHale could have made a better trade with the Bulls and ended up with Brandon Roy, Luol Deng, and Tyson Chandler. But he screwed up, waited, and Ainge took advantage. And while Ainge has had his screwups, he doesn't give himself a chance to succeed if he doesn't roll the dice with Jeffersona nd Green in the draft.
  8. KD
    8. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Also, I'm not arguing that Danny Ainge is the best executive in the NBA. But he is the Executive of the Year.
  9. hardwoodparoxysm
    9. Posted by hardwoodparoxysm Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Huh. Okay. That I can get behind.
    But he shouldn't win it, because if we let stupid people succeed, the terrorists win. And by terrorists, I mean Boston fans.
  10. KD
    10. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:52 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    And, yes, I chose that picture because you can see the canary feathers hanging from the side of his mouth.
  11. JMVandal (Formerly James M)
    11. Posted by JMVandal (Formerly James M) Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:53 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I'm not a fan of Boston, but I agree Ainge is Exec of the Year.
    Mitch has done a great job, but would he have gotten Gasol had it not been for Jerry West's relationship with the Lakers organization? Lakers definitely made the steal of the year, but Ainge, thru his deals, took the Celtics from 24-58 to a 60+ win team. That type of turn around is historic and should be recognized.
  12. Jay L
    12. Posted by Jay L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    nah, can't be ainge! it's gotta be zeke! great team, great record, great cap management. he's the whole package! and a great legal victory too in the sexual harassment case. need i say more?
  13. khandor
    13. Posted by khandor Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    First-off, there is no award known to mankind that I detest more than the actual EOY, which is given out by the NBA execs (themselves) and more often than not goes to the wrong guy.
    Regardless, when you look at what D-Ainge has done, since this date last season, to put the Celtics in position to (maybe?) win the NBA championship this year, it is quite astounding ...
    as the 2006-2007 Celtics finished 24-58 .293 using the following 16 players ...
    Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Michael Olowokandi, Kendrick Perkins, Paul Pierce, Kevinn Pinkney, Leon Powe, Rajon Rondo, Theo Ratliff, Allan Ray, Brian Scalabrine, Wally Szczerbiak, Sebastian Telfair & Delonte West;
    and the 2007-2008 Celtics are now 62-16 .795 (+38 W's) with the following 15-man roster ...
    Ray Allen, Tony Allen, P.J. Brown, Sam Cassell, Glen Davis, Kevin Garnett, Eddie House, Kendrick Perkins, Paul Pierce, Scot Pollard, James Posey, Leon Powe, Gabe Pruitt, Rajon Rondo & Brian Scalabrine
    which includes 9 NEW PLAYERS (not just K-Garnett & R-Allen) ... but the SAME head coach as last year's team.
    In the history of the NBA there has never been an over-haul like this ... that has worked like this with a week to go in the Regular Season.
    Never ... EVER.
    Case closed.
    Give the man HIS award.
  14. DJSMAKAHO
    14. Posted by DJSMAKAHO Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:25 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If the Lakers got Gasol because of Jerry West's relationship with them then u got to mention Kevin McHale's relationship with the Celtics.... The only reason KG went to Boston was because McHale wanted to see them do better.... Same thing with West, but the only difference is Boston gots a great core of 30 something players as to the Lakers where we are still in the 20's.... If Boston doesn't win a championship within the next 3-4 years how will that trade look then???? Its now or never for the Celtics....
  15. hupcakes
    15. Posted by hupcakes Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    thanks for the recognition, KD. Topsy Turvey is due on the 17th.
    love to all.
  16. donnymassenburg
    16. Posted by donnymassenburg Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Well explained.
  17. Nic
    17. Posted by Nic Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:38 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I don't take anything Kelly Dwyer says seriously.
  18. poker_punker
    18. Posted by poker_punker Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Hey KD, love your columns and respect your opinions, but don't you think you are being a little results-oriented?
    I mean, it's not a secret that if Kevin McHale did this a favor to the Celtics; not only the Chicago offer was way better, but even the Golden State offer (B.Wright, Al Harrington, Monta, picks and money, I think) was better.
    I think there's a trend to reward people who, even though has done good things, their major move came because of a dumb move by another GM (Wallace and McHale). I think it'll be better to give this kind of awards to people like Pritchard and Morey, who not only made good teams, but did it through small moves, and manage to build a structure for the franchise for the near future.
  19. with-malice.com
    19. Posted by with-malice.com Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    sorry kelly - but you're dead wrong here. yes, kg is better than gasol, but look at what the two teams gave up and compare. the lakers will still be a winning franchise 3 years from now... just about the time the celtics window of opportunity expires.
  20. Milton A
    20. Posted by Milton A Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    if anybody should be exex of the year is mchale...hes the one who took the trash out of boston for KG...
  21. Ortho Stice
    21. Posted by Ortho Stice Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:56 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    The fact that this is even a debate is ridiculous. In one off-season Ainge turned one of the worst teams in the league into the clear-cut best team in the league. Historically, Ainge should be near the top of the list for one of the best executive seasons ever.
  22. Ortho Stice
    22. Posted by Ortho Stice Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:56 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    The fact that this is even a debate is ridiculous. In one off-season Ainge turned one of the worst teams in the league into the clear-cut best team in the league. Historically, Ainge should be near the top of the list for one of the best executive seasons ever.
  23. with-malice.com
    23. Posted by with-malice.com Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    You figure? Ainge may have made Boston relevant, but he put the future of the franchise in hock to do so.
    Kupchak went from being an absolute schmo to making the Lakers potentially the best team in the league - and gave away NOTHING to do so.

Ball Don't Lie

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

J.E. Skeets

Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Teams

Customize to follow news and rumors on your favorite teams. [ Sign in ]

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Ball Don't Lie Recent Readers