Ball Don't Lie - NBA

You've already sniffed the Turkey Glue, now read my take. 

This, and not the Most Valuable Player, is the NBA's most frustrating award.

The voters never seem to get it right. Sure, there are some exceptions, but the Most Improved Player hardware always seems to go to the Guy Who Gets Way More Minutes This Season, or the Guy On a Once-Lousy Team That We Didn't Pay Attention To the Year Before. The actual idea of improvement, honest-to-goodness increase in production and play, is out the window.

So, after taking in hours of the on-court stuff, watching these guys last year and this season, and going over the per-minute numbers, it's safe to say that Andrew Bynum is this season's most improved player.

But he shouldn't win the Most Improved Player award. My man didn't play enough games. Pity, but that's how it goes. The other candidates? Let's ‘ave a go:

Hedo Turkoglu. Terrific season. Upped his shooting percentage, appears to be in better shape, more active off the ball which makes him a constant offensive threat. His turnovers went up with the increased responsibility, but so did his assists, rebounds, and points per-minute.

(Oh, yeah, we use per-minute stats. It's to help you tell the difference between the guys that improved quite a bit, and the guys that played a lot more just because Isiah Thomas isn't that great at building a team.)

Last season, Hedo threw out 15.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per 36 minutes. This year, the numbers have jumped to 19, 5.6, and 4.8 assists per 36, while the shooting percentage has rocked to 45 percent after a 42 percent turn last season.

Anthony Carter has improved this year, he'll play about 2000 more minutes in 2007-08 than he did last season, but beyond a shooting percentage increase, his numbers aren't that far off from where they were in seasons past.

LaMarcus Aldridge has improved, but not by a lot. He's played more minutes in Zach Randolph's absence (does that Isiah reference make sense now?), which allows him to put up better stats, but his per-minute rebounding has actually gone down, his per-minute turnovers have gone way up, his shooting percentage has gone down, as have his blocks.

Aldridge is averaging more minutes per game, and more shots per-minute. This is why his points per game has gone way up (almost nine per game), and his points per 36 minutes has leapt from 14.6 to 18.5. But the name of the game is improvement, and not more shots, and certainly not more minutes. LaMarcus didn't get those shots and minutes because he started setting the world on fire. He got them because Zach Randolph is kind of a [jerk], and Isiah Thomas doesn't know what he's doing.

This isn't to trash LaMarcus, who is a fine player and a cornerstone of what will probably be the NBA champs from 2011 to 2019. We just have to make a distinction.

Mike Dunleavy Jr. is right there. His rebounds and turnovers per minute are worse off, but he's scoring nearly four and a half points more per 36 minutes, without a huge increase in shot attempts (up 1.7 per 36 minutes).

I can't give it to Chris Kaman, mainly because 2006-07 was a fluke year. His improved production is right in line with the year-to-year growth that one should expect. Take out last season, compare this year's turn with 2005-06 and 2004-05, and his (steady and impressive) play makes sense.

Rudy Gay is also right there, he managed to up his shot attempts per minute while increasing his shooting percentage, no small feat. Everything else, however, stayed the same.

Jose Calderon is brilliant, but he's playing about as well as he did last season. T.J. Ford's injury gave Jose more minutes, and I don't confuse "improvement" with "Al Horford not knowing which guys he can slap across the head."

So who is it? Well, you've seen the picture and read the headline, so let's get to why Chris Paul has improved more than anyone else:

He's creating more. More shots for himself (couple that with an increase in shooting percentage, from 44 to 49 percent), and more buckets for his teammates.

Remember, last season the Hornets didn't have Peja Stojakovic, and the team needed Paul to score more. This season, he's learned from the Steve Nash school, squaring his shoulders and knowing when to dart - so even with Peja's return, Paul is still putting up more shots per minute, and making them.

That's big. To have a potent point man that defenses can't muscle out of the action is important. Paul is averaging three points more per 36 minutes per game, and his assists have shot through the roof: 11.1 per 36 minutes, as opposed to 8.7 per 36 last season.

Now, assists depend on teammates; but you never saw Kirk Hinrich (playing with Tyson Chandler in Chicago) or Mike Bibby (flinging it to Peja in Sacramento) leading the league in assists. This is Paul, owning things.

The steals have gone way up, the turnovers have stayed the same (slightly better than last season per-minute, in spite of the added responsibility), he's averaging fewer rebounds per minute, but also pairing a better three-point touch with the ability to get more three-pointers off.

PER, the best catch-all stat we have, has Paul going from 22 last season, to an MVP-caliber 28.3 this season. We aren't used to seeing MVP candidates win the MIP (it usually goes to a plucky player who went from "good" to "pretty good"), but if Paul was the most improved, then why the heck not?

Readers, you see the games. You're reading an NBA blog on a Monday afternoon. You know the league. Ask yourself, have you seen anyone make a bigger jump between 2006-07 and 2007-08 than this guy? I haven't.

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32 Comments

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  1. Pistons C
    1. Posted by Pistons C Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:42 pm EDT

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    Maybe Cause he has David West, Tyson Chandler, and Peja. Chris Paul is overrated, and Deron Williams is much better than him.
    Deron Chris Paul 9-2.
  2. haon68
    2. Posted by haon68 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

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    I agree that MIP can't go to Bynum this year (as you said, our main man didn't play enough games). That being said, in your eyes, if Bynum posts equivalent numbers next season for 60-70 games, would he be eligible next year?
    My gut says no, as sports guys across the tubes decide that his numbers are "too similar" to 2007-2008.
    So, by virtue of bad luck, Bynum will be unable to win the award that he (probably) deserved.
    I guess the awards at the end of the season all have components of this (Bron has the best year, can't win MVP. Sixth man will go to a starter coming off the bench: Ginobili. Coach of the Year, well, let's just say that Jerry Sloan *still* hasn't won one).
    At least, we'll always have the Playoffs.
  3. Mitch
    3. Posted by Mitch Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:22 pm EDT

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    Why not Monta Ellis? I saw an earlier note to the effect that he might really have already been good at the end of last season, but I'm not sure I understand the logic.
    He went from occasional flashes of athleticism to carrying the team every third game.
  4. anon
    4. Posted by anon Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:43 pm EDT

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    Check out Jerome James's PER and tell me he's not the MIP and MVP.
  5. JMVandal (Formerly James M)
    5. Posted by JMVandal (Formerly James M) Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:53 pm EDT

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    There is an interesting argument for Paul. I think Mike Dunleavy should get the award. He has finally justified the lottery pick the Warriors used on him nearly six long years ago. Before this season, he struggled with being one of the cornerstones for a franchise's future, but has become a consistent production guy for a franchise that can 't use the word consistent to describe anything except in trouble.
    I still don't think he warrants a giant poster at All Star weekend with Kobe and Nash, someone must have played a joke.
    Dunleavy went from disappointment to most consistent player of the team, that is Most Improved.
  6. Michael
    6. Posted by Michael Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    hey, kd, you got it right. according to the best catch-all stat there is:
    http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1584
  7. A Yahoo! User
    7. Posted by A Yahoo! User Mon Apr 14, 2008 3:46 pm EDT

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    Hornets suck !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    celtics all the way baby !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  8. skinnyrealtor.com
    8. Posted by skinnyrealtor.com Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:26 pm EDT

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    Kelly Dwyer, may I suggest that you intern for a local paper during the summer and try again to work for a big publication like Yahoo-Sports when you are old enough to attend college. To mention Anthony Carter and Mike Dunleavy in the same breathe as Chris Paul is absurd! The Most Improved Player award is like being valedictorian of summer school which meant you failed the previous year. This is a fraternity I believe most players would not want to be associated with for life (past winners: Ike Austin - Gheorge Muresan - Don Mclean). For that reason alone, future hall of famers such as Chris Paul (assist leader) Dwight Howard (rebound leader) Andrew Bynum (field goal percentage leader) are not eligible. The hands-down winner of the award is JOSE CALDERON.
  9. gadogry
    9. Posted by gadogry Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    Good stuff KD, although Prof. Hollinger stole your thunder a while ago already.
  10. blitz_0623
    10. Posted by blitz_0623 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

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    LeBron and Wade didnt win when bobby simmon won. lebron raised his game in from a 21-5-5 in his rookie 02-03 season to a 27-7-7 03-04 sophomore season. wade had shaq, and became a 24 ppg player from a 14ppg rookie season. yet bobby simmons won. you think chris paul is gonna win? hell no
  11. beowulf_all_star
    11. Posted by beowulf_all_star Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:05 pm EDT

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    KD, is there a way to filter the comments on this page so I don't have to read crap?
    My personal list: 1) Hedo 2) Paul 3) Dunleavy
    Dunleavy has no doubt improved, but he switched teams and coaches, which at least has an impact on the change, even though I see internal improvement from him as well. Turkoglu impresses me not just in his change in stats, but also demeanor and aggression on the court. He expects to handle the ball and shoot late in the 4th now.
  12. EugeneO
    12. Posted by EugeneO Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:00 pm EDT

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    I'm a firm believer in Turkoglu as the MIP not only because of his improved stats and his significant impact on the team but also as a side note, a month or two ago, ESPN listed the players with the most 4th quarter points, with Lebron James and Kobe Bryant leading the way but Turkoglu was 3rd! I think that's especially amazing considering the talent of LBJ and Kobe. His clutch performance along with his impact on the team is well deserving of the MIP award.
  13. sonic f l
    13. Posted by sonic f l Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    ya turkeyglu has the stat improve but hes become clutch plus MIP is a joke jsut like the slam dunk contest
  14. KD
    14. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    Eugene -- those facts make him a great player this season, but it doesn't really do much for the literal interpretation of "most improved."
    carlito -- Throw Amare in that list from 2004-05. I don't think Paul is going to win it, because I never trust the voters to take the time to research and work hard at coming up with an answer. I just think he should win it.
    gadorgy -- Actually, the first time I started thinking about Paul for MIP was in January, when Mike G provided the stats he linked to on this comment page off the APBR board. No need for "thunder," but there is a need to get it right. I'm glad John is arguing on Chris' behalf as well.
  15. yup_its_dude20
    15. Posted by yup_its_dude20 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    This is just stupid. Paul has had a natural development in his game. He's gone from 8apg to 9apg to 11apg and from 16ppg to 17ppg to 21ppg. How the hell is that MIP? Kelly Dwyer seems to drop the ball on every other blog he writes. Maybe it's time to take up that job offer at McDonald's. This award should clearly go to Turkuglu. He's gone from 13-4-3 last season to 20-6-5 this season. He's turning into a clutch player who thrives under pressure. Something you can hardly say about Choke Paul. Hornets are good now because they got healthy.
  16. KD
    16. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    You did notice that Turkoglu is playing six more minutes per game this year, right? And that Paul is playing about 40 seconds more per game?
    You probably didn't.
  17. JMVandal (Formerly James M)
    17. Posted by JMVandal (Formerly James M) Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:53 pm EDT

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    Hornets contending for the West's best record isn't because they got healthy. It takes something special to go from playoff contender to championship contender. That is a leap worthy of MVP, Paul is above MIP.
  18. KH
    18. Posted by KH Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:49 pm EDT

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    so how exactly we can differentiate paul's injury-ridden 2006-2007 during which he obviously played far from his optimal level and shared the same fate with many of his teammates (injury-wise), and 2007-2008 during which all the pieces got together? doesn't sound like this year is an extremely unexpected jump or improved play (but better health) and reminded me that kaman argument. this is not to bash paul but statistical-based approach shouldn't fully come into play here since we just witness his natural progression as this is the case with dwight howard. turk/dunleavy better choices... (iq challenged tj ford shoved calderon aside, that's shameful)
  19. j-smoove
    19. Posted by j-smoove Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:27 pm EDT

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    Kelly, check out http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2007-2008&team=NOH, and look at Chris Paul's defensive numbers (the Hornets' adjusted +/- for when Chris Paul is on the court).
    2-3 steals out of 105-some-odd team possessions a game does *not* automatically mean someone is a good defender. Giving up 6+ points per game more when you're on the court is pretty telling.
  20. CHRIS B
    20. Posted by CHRIS B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    Sasha Vujacic hands down is the most improved. Knocking down them three's. GO LAKERS
  21. JM
    21. Posted by JM Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:38 pm EDT

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    Turkoglu would be my choice.
  22. j3ffxh4n
    22. Posted by j3ffxh4n Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    you are dumb dwyer. paul already had fabulous numbers as of last year. COME ON AND LOOK AT TURKOLU. his improvement has been far more drastic than cp3's. Also, how can you NOT name mitch kupchack as executive of the year. He pulled off one of the biggest trades during the season and has also put together a draft class that is now excellent in farmar, vujacic, bynum, turiaf, and walton.
  23. Jose Calderon Fan
    23. Posted by Jose Calderon Fan Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:02 pm EDT

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    Yeah right, Calderon has played "about as well as last year"????? You're crazy!
    All his percentages are up with the increase in minutes and he has about 300 more assists this year yet the same amount of turnovers!!!! 5.5 assist to turnover ratio for a guy that started most of the year is unheard of...it may be a record of some sort. But you're right, he is playing "about as well"!!
  24. KD
    24. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    j-smoove: I agree, which is why I'm not giving Paul my MVP vote. My non-existent MVP vote. His offense, however, is much, much improved.
    JCF: if you're a fan, you noticed that Jose is playing just about the same (brilliantly) this year than he did last year. He's a good step better, but the on-court improvement hasn't been much; though that isn't to say that he hasn't had an All-Star season. The numbers movement is because of his increased minutes.
    Hedo supporters: why is it that none of you can spell his last name?
  25. M.A
    25. Posted by M.A Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    I strongly believe that Chris has earn this award better than anybody else in the NBA. His numbers speaks for him. He and Lebron James to me are the front runners for the MVP. Just look at their numbers and compare it to anyone else that is picked or will be pick for the MVP vote. They are the and should remain the face of the NBA for the next season. Kobe is a good player but if Lebron has the group kobe is playing with now; I know his number will be a lot better than what it is now. Do you feel me on these issues?

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