Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:10 am EDT

What next for Cleveland?


Even if we saw the proverbial writing on the wall as soon as the Magic pulled a few wins, the end of Cleveland's season was pretty swift. 

And the Cleveland Cavaliers, that team full of 66 wins and Coaches of the Year with a player/puppet for the ages and a whole lot of choreographed team chemistry, are done. Finito. In the same boat as, say, the Grizzlies.

But because we actually care about the Cavs (and, a little later, the Nuggets), we're going to actually, briefly, delve into what the future for this team likely holds. No talk of cap holds, of course. That would be tedious.

The Cavs are in a tough spot, for several reasons. Prime of which is the idea that the team overachieved in 2008-09. That this is really a 50-win team, and take away LeBron James'(notes) presence? Lucky to hit 20.

Of course, every team stinks horribly when you take away its best player. But outside of Chris Paul's(notes) Hornets, would any team stink as much?

Then there's the 2010-factor, which for just about every other team means hoarding cap space. In Cleveland's world, that's also what "2010-factor" means, but it also has a more important, potentially-scarier, message behind it. The Cavs could lose LeBron James, who could split as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010.

Toss all that together, and holy lord, I don't envy Cavs personnel boss Danny Ferry.

Actually, scratch that, I do envy Danny Ferry, because he gets to build a pro basketball team around the best player in the game. And even if he blows it, let's face it, his name isn't mud. Kevin McHale, if we're looking for someone who failed in that regard, will still get to coach (or at least work for) the Timberwolves next season. There are second acts in American life, if you run pro basketball teams.

So who's gone?

Wally Szczerbiak(notes), he of the two airballed jumpers in Game 6, and the constant mouthings of "my bad" (we get it, Wally), will move on. A free agent, and unlikely to pass by again unless he's cool with the league minimum and spotty show-ups in the rotation. Joe Smith(notes) could also see the same fate; he didn't even have a role in the rotation towards the end of the season, unless he, too, wants to play for the minimum. Still, you could easily seem him returning on a one-year deal.

Then there are the options. Zydrunas Ilgauskas(notes) will pick his up. I can't imagine Anderson Varejao(notes) -- even in an overheated free agent market where players and bad GMs alike overvalue guys who play on national TV quite a bit -- passing on picking up the player option on the last year of his contract, which pays him about the league's average salary.

But I'm sane, in my own special way, and think he's worth about that. Even if he tosses off, though, and even if the Cavs trade away or don't pick up Sasha Pavlovic's(notes) option (which I don't see happening, as it's so hard to pick up players while over the cap), Cleveland won't have any salary cap space that would extend beyond, perhaps, a million bucks or so. And that's with Varejao and Pavlovic taking off, without signing or re-signing anyone else.

No dire straits then, right? Danny Ferry could take this stab at flexibility and turn it into something great, what with all those expiring deals and unguaranteed contracts. Other teams love unguaranteed contracts because, well, they're not guaranteed! Right?

Sure, and if something boffo came down the pike, you could see it happening. Ben Wallace(notes) has a huge expiring deal. Owner Dan Gilbert has shown a willingness to pay for a winner. The Cavs have played deep into the playoffs since 2007, which means tons of extra revenue to spend.

And, most of all, you want to impress LeBron, who can take off in about 14 months.

That's precisely why I think, and I cede that it's entirely possible that I'm more than wrong, the Cavs will essentially stand pat during the offseason.

Sure, they'll tinker. But they'll also have huge scads of cap room in 2010 to work with even after James re-signs.

And taking a chance on a deal that would last past the 2009-10 season, which no team is doing right now (so you know those deals are available, if the Cavs want them), would be a huge risk. It would have to be a foolproof, can't miss, transaction.

So if you toss all that post-2010 flexibility (again, with James in the fold) out the window for, say, Michael Redd(notes), you essentially are committing to that team for years. That's your lot.

It's up to Ferry to make that call. He's dealing from a position of strength, in a climate where no team wants to commit to anything beyond 2010, or commit to anything that will cost their owner too much money. He has James, he has expirings, and he has an unguaranteed deal. All of these make for easy trading.

But he also has to hit an unmitigated home run with whatever deal he puts together. And that, even given the window and the parts and the window shoppers who are envious of the parts, is no easy task.

I still envy him, though. Have fun, Dr. Ferry.

digg delicious
more

404 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. Anton
    1. Posted by Anton Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:23 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Get a big man and an offense-minded assistant coach. Brown is great defensively. He sucks with the offense as when it breaks down, it's Lebron, Lebron, Lebron.
  2. The man
    2. Posted by The man Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:31 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Be a little humble next year Cavs. They were sooooooo cooky thinking they were better than everyone. LBJ still thinks he better by not shaking hands at the end of the game. No one likes losing, but you're still supposed to be a good sport about it. So much was said how the Bad Boys Pistons were classless for walking off the court. The same applies here!!
  3. Dee
    3. Posted by Dee Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:32 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    I am a Clevelander. I love my city and team, but I stopped following the sports teams since the Cardiac Kids. Our teams always give us the excitement for a little while, and then it ends. I dont know why Clevelanders are so upset. This is how it has always been since the Cardiac Kids! Lets just appreciate the excitement we did have and move on already! As far as Labrons reaction; people forget he is only in his early twenties. This is how an early twenty year old reacts. I dont agree with his reaction, but having a twenty year old, that is just the nature of some young people. But he does have to realize, if you want to do man things, he must react like a man.
  4. jojo
    4. Posted by jojo Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:33 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    I think they will make a deal or two to impress Lebron before 2010, maybe even something big if they can swing it with their expiring contracts.
  5. ZACHary
    5. Posted by ZACHary Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:36 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    We don't need:
    Wally
    Boobie
    Sasha
    We need(or someone like them):
    Lamar Odom
    Gerald Wallace
  6. Dee
    6. Posted by Dee Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:37 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    y
  7. CAVS CHAMPS 2010 (next dynasty)
    7. Posted by CAVS CHAMPS 2010 (next dynasty) Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:38 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    First of all I agree with the man. Second we need someone downlow to play the post. z sucks ass now varejao has no offensive capabilities and still lacks some basic basketball iq. And lastly I am too sleepy i'll read this again in a few hours.
  8. ZACHary
    8. Posted by ZACHary Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:38 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Or Tayshaun Prince!
  9. WITNESSCAVS09
    9. Posted by WITNESSCAVS09 Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:45 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    shouldve traded ben wallace for shaq
  10. bobby
    10. Posted by bobby Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:54 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Mike Brown oughta be fired!
  11. Subculture D
    11. Posted by Subculture D Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:55 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    freezy is going all Bo Burnham on us.
  12. freezy
    12. Posted by freezy Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:57 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    you kno it...just puts you in a good mood - maybe cleveland should listen to it
  13. jp
    13. Posted by jp Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:58 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    what they need to do is get a big bib for little bron bron who doesnt know a thing about class and how to take a loss like a man. if he hadnt ever shaken anybodies hand after a game then his sorry reason or excuse would be legit however this being the first time this year or so i say B.S. grow up little boy its time to be a man you lost....... have no respect for him after that there was no controversy or anything they just got whooped what a chump you can keep him cleveland he has shown his true colors and they arent pretty..........
  14. Calebspirit
    14. Posted by Calebspirit Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:14 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    THis for Tired of the babies comment: I think it's funny how we can all sit here and make these judgement about players, especially Lebron. There is NO way we could even begin to imagine the pressure of being touted the best player. This was it, the go home loss, it certainly has a different feel to it than the beginning of the season loss, or even midway through the season. I can't imagine anyone wanting to shake hands after such a devastating loss. the media created this monumental defeat. Please give the players a break, they are human, and fallable. Lebron gave a great explanation on Sunday, deal with it!
  15. dwelf
    15. Posted by dwelf Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:15 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    PLEASE Cleveland make Paul Millsap and offer he can't refuse and that Utah won't pay!
  16. Subculture D
    16. Posted by Subculture D Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:22 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    ya know freezy, u may have a point. Or maybe they could check out some Mitch Hedberg or Demetri Martin. My two fav comedians! I think that'd do the trick for them.
  17. demonkiss1977
    17. Posted by demonkiss1977 Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:22 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    after his poor sportsmanship tirade i hope price labron never never wins anythig again his total disreguard for congratulation to orlando was pathetic and really sending a maeesage to his fans especially the young fans thats it is ok to pout and be a poor sport... labron should not hasve gone back to his locker room then if that was hid attitude... hey prince jame it is ok to say hey your better thasn me good luck... quit pouting....OH AND BY THE WAY KOBE SHAKES JHANDS AFTER WINNING OR LOSING... IT IS ALL CALLED MATURITY... LABRON 0 KOBE1
  18. The Wiz
    18. Posted by The Wiz Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:25 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    All I can say is Cleveland might as well start helping Lebron pack for better places in 2010...They were too cocky about their game and they choked hands down. Lebron leaving was classless especially since their was no bitter hate/rivalry between the teams. Cleveland will have to do something really impressive to keep Lebron after 2010, but I don't see that happening. Dwight Howard for President!
  19. davor n
    19. Posted by davor n Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:26 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    jerk is a jerk, regardless of his explanation
  20. alex
    20. Posted by alex Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:32 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Well you see what happens to Houston when their TWO best players are taken away.
  21. donthte
    21. Posted by donthte Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:39 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    I constantly stated during the trade season that cleveland needed to get Amare Stoudemire, and NOT been Wallace, nor Joe Smith. & Just imagine if they would have kept Carlos Boozer. We the Conference Finals and the NBA finals. But, no one listened to me....
    NOW - GIT RID OF: A. Varejao, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Z. Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, Delonte West.
    GO GET: Michael Redd, & Amare Stoudemire, make Boobie Gibson & Mo Williams your starting gaurds, have Michael Redd your 6th man. Stoudemire your center. Then we need a hustle man, find a big body mand 6'11 or 6'9 @ least 235-245lbs that has at least a 15"-22" vertical and quick feet, for rebounding and defending big forwards, AND i'll SHOW YOU A CHANPIONSHIP TEAM.
    SOMEBODY SEND THIS TO THE FRONT OFFICE OF THE CAVS AND MR. DANNY FERRY. I'LL HELP THEM GET A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM. why not, try it... it can't hurt any worse than what just happened.
    OH, IF THEY NEED A REPLACEMENT COACH FOR MIKE BROWN,, CALL ME!! - I UNDERSTAND BASKETBALL AND PERSONNEL USAGE....yeah, I KNOW how to get MY team to stop letting team beat them from behind the 3 point line. THAT'S SIMPLE HIGH-SCHOOL STUFF....
  22. jp
    22. Posted by jp Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:42 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    hey barney quit making excusing. this is not how mj or majic or bird or the list goes on and on would have or did handle losses they had respect for their opponent and class. people like you making excusing for this are the problem......you raise your kids too show no respect ill raise mine too show respect......and for the great explanation maybe your bias is in the way or you saw something different than i but to me it was crap and will always be crap he doesnt have near the maturity or the class of dwight and they age is the same so deal with it.....
  23. ItsPete
    23. Posted by ItsPete Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:45 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Mo William's isn't LeBron's Robin, but LeBron ain't no Batman yet.
    Let go of everyone (Wallace, Szczerbiak, Varejao, etc.)
    Keep Gibson, get a young big. If you can trade away Mo Williams for a legit big (Bosh, Stoudemire, Bogut, Okafor, etc.), then LeBron has that much of a better chance.
    Cleveland has 0 bench, no legit 3-pt shooters, no paint presence. LeBron may be statistically the best player, but he's getting all those stats because the rest of his team can't put them up. That is why he'll lose even if he averages 30-10-10.
    Look @ Houston. They lose Yao Ming and they still have enough depth (Artest, Scola, Battier, Brooks) to win games. You take away Lebron and they'll lose more than the Knicks.
  24. Andrew K
    24. Posted by Andrew K Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:45 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    I'm still a little shocked to see the Cavs out of the playoffs, even though I called the Magic in 6 or 7.

Ball Don't Lie

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

J.E. Skeets

Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Teams

Customize to follow news and rumors on your favorite teams. [ Sign in ]

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Ball Don't Lie Recent Readers