Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:10 am EDT

Even if we saw the proverbial writing on the wall as soon as
the Magic pulled a few wins, the end of Cleveland's
season was pretty swift.
And the Cleveland Cavaliers, that team full of 66 wins and Coaches of the Year with a player/puppet for the ages and a whole lot of choreographed team chemistry, are done. Finito. In the same boat as, say, the Grizzlies.
But because we actually care about the Cavs (and, a little later, the Nuggets), we're going to actually, briefly, delve into what the future for this team likely holds. No talk of cap holds, of course. That would be tedious.
The Cavs are in a tough spot, for several reasons. Prime of which is the idea that the team overachieved in 2008-09. That this is really a 50-win team, and take away LeBron James'(notes) presence? Lucky to hit 20.
Of course, every team stinks horribly when you take away its best player. But outside of Chris Paul's(notes) Hornets, would any team stink as much?
Then there's the 2010-factor, which for just about every other team means hoarding cap space. In Cleveland's world, that's also what "2010-factor" means, but it also has a more important, potentially-scarier, message behind it. The Cavs could lose LeBron James, who could split as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010.
Toss all that together, and holy lord, I don't envy Cavs personnel boss Danny Ferry.
Actually, scratch that, I do envy Danny Ferry, because he gets to build a pro basketball team around the best player in the game. And even if he blows it, let's face it, his name isn't mud. Kevin McHale, if we're looking for someone who failed in that regard, will still get to coach (or at least work for) the Timberwolves next season. There are second acts in American life, if you run pro basketball teams.
So who's gone?
Wally Szczerbiak(notes), he of the two airballed jumpers in Game 6, and the constant mouthings of "my bad" (we get it, Wally), will move on. A free agent, and unlikely to pass by again unless he's cool with the league minimum and spotty show-ups in the rotation. Joe Smith(notes) could also see the same fate; he didn't even have a role in the rotation towards the end of the season, unless he, too, wants to play for the minimum. Still, you could easily seem him returning on a one-year deal.
Then there are the options. Zydrunas Ilgauskas(notes) will pick his up. I can't imagine Anderson Varejao(notes) -- even in an overheated free agent market where players and bad GMs alike overvalue guys who play on national TV quite a bit -- passing on picking up the player option on the last year of his contract, which pays him about the league's average salary.
But I'm sane, in my own special way, and think he's worth about that. Even if he tosses off, though, and even if the Cavs trade away or don't pick up Sasha Pavlovic's(notes) option (which I don't see happening, as it's so hard to pick up players while over the cap), Cleveland won't have any salary cap space that would extend beyond, perhaps, a million bucks or so. And that's with Varejao and Pavlovic taking off, without signing or re-signing anyone else.
No dire straits then, right? Danny Ferry could take this stab at flexibility and turn it into something great, what with all those expiring deals and unguaranteed contracts. Other teams love unguaranteed contracts because, well, they're not guaranteed! Right?
Sure, and if something boffo came down the pike, you could see it happening. Ben Wallace(notes) has a huge expiring deal. Owner Dan Gilbert has shown a willingness to pay for a winner. The Cavs have played deep into the playoffs since 2007, which means tons of extra revenue to spend.
And, most of all, you want to impress LeBron, who can take off in about 14 months.
That's precisely why I think, and I cede that it's entirely possible that I'm more than wrong, the Cavs will essentially stand pat during the offseason.
Sure, they'll tinker. But they'll also have huge scads of cap room in 2010 to work with even after James re-signs.
And taking a chance on a deal that would last past the 2009-10 season, which no team is doing right now (so you know those deals are available, if the Cavs want them), would be a huge risk. It would have to be a foolproof, can't miss, transaction.
So if you toss all that post-2010 flexibility (again, with James in the fold) out the window for, say, Michael Redd(notes), you essentially are committing to that team for years. That's your lot.
It's up to Ferry to make that call. He's dealing from a position of strength, in a climate where no team wants to commit to anything beyond 2010, or commit to anything that will cost their owner too much money. He has James, he has expirings, and he has an unguaranteed deal. All of these make for easy trading.
But he also has to hit an unmitigated home run with whatever deal he puts together. And that, even given the window and the parts and the window shoppers who are envious of the parts, is no easy task.
I still envy him, though. Have fun, Dr. Ferry.
Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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404 Comments
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Wally
Boobie
Sasha
We need(or someone like them):
Lamar Odom
Gerald Wallace
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NOW - GIT RID OF: A. Varejao, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Z. Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, Delonte West.
GO GET: Michael Redd, & Amare Stoudemire, make Boobie Gibson & Mo Williams your starting gaurds, have Michael Redd your 6th man. Stoudemire your center. Then we need a hustle man, find a big body mand 6'11 or 6'9 @ least 235-245lbs that has at least a 15"-22" vertical and quick feet, for rebounding and defending big forwards, AND i'll SHOW YOU A CHANPIONSHIP TEAM.
SOMEBODY SEND THIS TO THE FRONT OFFICE OF THE CAVS AND MR. DANNY FERRY. I'LL HELP THEM GET A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM. why not, try it... it can't hurt any worse than what just happened.
OH, IF THEY NEED A REPLACEMENT COACH FOR MIKE BROWN,, CALL ME!! - I UNDERSTAND BASKETBALL AND PERSONNEL USAGE....yeah, I KNOW how to get MY team to stop letting team beat them from behind the 3 point line. THAT'S SIMPLE HIGH-SCHOOL STUFF....
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Let go of everyone (Wallace, Szczerbiak, Varejao, etc.)
Keep Gibson, get a young big. If you can trade away Mo Williams for a legit big (Bosh, Stoudemire, Bogut, Okafor, etc.), then LeBron has that much of a better chance.
Cleveland has 0 bench, no legit 3-pt shooters, no paint presence. LeBron may be statistically the best player, but he's getting all those stats because the rest of his team can't put them up. That is why he'll lose even if he averages 30-10-10.
Look @ Houston. They lose Yao Ming and they still have enough depth (Artest, Scola, Battier, Brooks) to win games. You take away Lebron and they'll lose more than the Knicks.
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