Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Some of these sorts of athlete confessionals, yeah, you have to wonder if the fans have read anything more than the headline and a pull-quote before deciding to slam a particular player for perceived selfishness and/or hubris. 

Usually the damning quote in question has an athlete confirming that he thinks he could be an All-Star, or the best in his league at his position, or that he thinks his team can take on all comers in the year that's about to commence.

And there's nothing wrong with those. Unless the guy is absolutely deluded ("I think I should have been an All-Star last year," when there were 15 better candidates ahead of him who were snubbed), it's usually a generic display of the sort of confidence you'd like to see in a player.

On the other hand, there are some confessionals that outright infuriate. Always blustery, always out of touch, they come off as more preening and whining as opposed to hopeful and encouraging.

I think Travis Outlaw's latest batch of quotes sort of falls right down the middle of these two. Actually, scratch that. Closer to the former. It's still worth going over, but it wouldn't be correct to think that this guy is a half-step away from demanding to start.

To begin, his thoughts come from an absolute must-read piece from Jason Quick, who followed Outlaw all over a recent visit to his Starkville, Mississippi home, while giving us a perfect example of the not-as-heralded-athlete-who-finally-gets-a-forum-all-to-his-not-as-heralded-self. Terrific reporting from Jason, here.

In it, Outlaw comes off as optimistic about Portland's chances over the next few years, while alternately hesitant, frustrated, resigned to his role in a good way, and encouraged about his future.

Outlaw turns 24 later this month, he's been around the NBA for a while now but that age is significant. He's years and years and years away from his prime, and though Travis is an average player now in just about every way, continued growth at the rate he's shown should have him turn into a real special piece in four or five years.

Probably not worthy of an All-Star spot, but you wouldn't think twice about his role as a starter on a championship-worthy team. Provided that team has some real franchise talents already in the starting lineup. And Portland, with Brandon Roy leading the show and Greg Oden in the wings, appears to have those talents in place. Along with alarming (for the rest of the league) depth and impending cap space.

That doesn't mean Outlaw, in the beginning of a column that sees his mood shift all over the place, doesn't have reservations. He's got them. Party of one.

"We have a really good team. But I don't know if they are going to be able to keep us together."

Now, that makes no sense. This comes across as Travis feeling sorry for himself.

Portland owner Paul Allen would pay triple luxury tax for a winner, whatever that means. He's pay whatever it took, and the Trail Blazers have a championship-level core. He'll be able to keep things together, unless Outlaw is so unhappy with is role that he's willing to take less money to play elsewhere. Travis doesn't have a guaranteed contract with the Blazers in 2009-10, but come on.

"I don't want to be a sixth man forever."

This, I don't have a problem with. I don't see this as complaining about his role. I love my gig here at Yahoo!, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't want to run, say, CBS. Cancel every show, keep David Letterman fat and sassy and maybe placed in primetime, and just run a Barney Miller marathon until I figure out what the rest of my lineup is going to look like. That's my first week. Easy-peezy.

The problem is, would Outlaw help as a starter? Travis was Portland's go-to shooter down the stretch of some games last year. And he certainly was big at the ends of quarters, where the Blazers would isolate Outlaw long enough for him to pull off that hard-dribble and pull-up 20 footer that he likes so much.

Starting Martell Webster, who is not as good but also two years younger and the better three-point shooter, seems the best route. He doesn't need shots, he spreads the floor, while Outlaw needs the ball to contribute. And with Roy, rookies Rudy Fernandez, Greg Oden and Jerryd Bayless on the floor with LaMarcus Aldridge, shots are going to be hard to come by. Those players are all more efficient scorers (or, Bayless will be eventually enough) than Outlaw.

Didn't Travis out-shoot Webster from long range last year?

Yes, but Webster hit three times as many three-pointers, at about the same percentage (38.8 to 40 percent), and shooting percentages have a way of being the flukiest stat around. Webster's long-range shooting has gotten steadily better as he's been in the league. Outlaw's was pretty crummy until one hot year in 2007-08. Always beware the one hot year, because it could come crashing down back to the previous averages before you know it. Hopefully it won't, but I'm just pointing this out.

There are other encouraging signs. Outlaw was a pretty crummy rebounder until last year, and while his 4.6 boards in 26.7 minutes may not seem like a lot, he is getting better. His rebounding rate put him right around Caron Butler, James Posey, and Luol Deng last year. Not good, especially for someone with his length and athletic gifts, but average enough and improving.

He blocks shots, and he hits that 20-footer of his. I'm not a fan of it in big bunches, though, and neither is Portland coach Nate McMillan, who'd prefer that Outlaw mix it up. Outlaw is not a fan of Nate not being a fan.

"Now, Carmelo, he's doing 360 (degree) fades, and George Karl is over there (he claps his hands) 'That's all right.' Let me get a light like that. I be trying some stuff."

Yeah, well, George Karl's trying to keep his job. The best way to do that is to get the franchise player on your side.

And the best coaching run of Karl's Denver career came when he inspired the Nuggets to a 32-8 record after taking over midway in 2004-05, while insisting that Carmelo Anthony not try that ridiculous fadeaway or face-up jumper. During that spell, Carmelo averaged right at 9.99 free throws per 36 minutes, as the Nuggets romped.

Last year, for Melo? 7.6 per 36. Horrible for a player who is three years older and should be living at the line. And Outlaw? 4.1 per 36.

Nate's right. Get to the line. Don't be trying some stuff.

That doesn't mean that Travis, eventually, doesn't get it. A double-negative meaning a positive.

"I look at myself and I might be that floating piece, you know? When you need something, you be like, we just put him in right there. Maybe that's it. I feel like I'm that guy that if they need anything -- a spark or something -- they will call on me. I feel like I can change the game sometimes."

That sort of sounds like the perfect guy you want coming off the bench. Someone who can score when the play breaks down, and the backup point guard doesn't know what to do, and you need an isolation scorer. A great shot-blocker. An improving rebounder. A 24 year-old with hops and room to grow.

"I don't want people to think I'm satisfied with coming off the bench all the time. I want to start ... I feel like I have earned it. But it makes sense for me to come off the bench."

Nobody thinks you're stealing money, Travis, and everyone wants to start. And, right now, you are better than the player in front of you at small forward.

But, yeah, it does make sense for you to come off the bench.

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12 Comments

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  1. Trey
    1. Posted by Trey Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

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    Wow. He seems really undecided about all of this. He's like a paradox wrapped in an enigma, and covered in mystery with a bit of uncertainty for flavor.
  2. IgorD
    2. Posted by IgorD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:22 pm EDT

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    I think he is just being very honest about his feelings. I think many players think that they should be playing and shooting more, and are worried that others will take away their shots, but most of them don't talk about it. In this case, it was a very honest and insightful interview, so he was sharing feelings that most players don't talk about but still have.
  3. Neal S
    3. Posted by Neal S Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:35 pm EDT

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    This all makes sense from a 24 yr. old who went to the NBA straight out of high school, but didn't crack 15 mpg until his 3rd season. Every year he plays more minutes, and every year he contributes more and has a more positive impact for the Blazers. It would only make sense from his point of view that the progression would continue, manifesting in a starters role/mpg. If Outlaw started last season, the Blazers would have finished below .500. The starting line-up had Blake and Webster spreading the defense out with their 3-pt. shooting, giving Roy and Aldridge room to work. Off the bench, James Jones outside shot provided the same benefit, opening things up for a rested Outlaw to help sew things up in the 4th. This year, I think Nate is counting on Fernandez and maybe Frye to provide the spot-up shooting to keep things clear for Travis. However, if neither Rudy or Bayless are able to wait for their own shots this year, maybe look to see Outlaw switch to the starting 5 so that Webster can open things up for the new guards to create off-the bench.
  4. Ryan
    4. Posted by Ryan Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:22 pm EDT

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    Yoda says "One good season does not a starter make."
  5. Ryan
    5. Posted by Ryan Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:22 pm EDT

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    Also, the fact that he thinks he should be able to shoot 360 mid-court jumpers should give us all pause....
  6. The Devil
    6. Posted by The Devil Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

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    The Blazers starting frontcourt looks similar to their backup frontcourt. They have Oden and Przybilla who are both great rebounders and shotblockers with limited offense at center, and they have Aldridge and Frye who are both thin power forwards who can shoot face up jumpers and are only so/so at rebounding and shot blocking. Webster and Fernandez can both shoot better than Outlaw, but if he can provide that extra rebounding and shot blocking that they need there's no reason he shouldn't get starter's minutes. I can't help but think it would make more sense to start Bayless and let Roy take care of the playmaking so that the second unit can have someone like Blake to take care of the ball. A lineup of Przybilla, Frye, Outlaw, Fernandez, and Bayless seems like it would lead to a lot of quick shots and little ball movement.
  7. An
    7. Posted by An Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:48 pm EDT

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    he doesn't get people involved, only look to score, no D, and poor 3pts range. Coming off the bench suits him best.
  8. mcwelk
    8. Posted by mcwelk Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    nice work on the Melo FT stat
  9. Fu
    9. Posted by Fu Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    The Barney Miller shows could even be edited to the good parts: theme song, followed by the guys making funny faces at each other.
    For Travis, it should be simple enough: you ain't gonna grow handles and passing, so you'd better grow some serious D or grab mad boards. Shooting was something the Blazers suffered with last year, especially once JJones started finally missing/sitting. With Bayless, Oden, and Fernandez, and Aldridge improving, the O cup runneth quite a bit more fulleth. If Outlaw gets good at 2 things rather than 1, he can probably get the starter's role.
    Of course, you can see in the interview that he'd be two minds about that, too.
  10. jermain
    10. Posted by jermain Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:33 pm EDT

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    this jermain mcgee from columbus,ms i played against him in highschool even back then he would always come down the court 7 ft tall playing point guard the guy never passed the ball and he would shoot up half court jumpers and he was a guy always used to the attention and now its starting to get to him maybe? But any ways he do deserves to be starting everyone deserves a chance if not he can always go to another team. good luck travis by the way enjoyed that bar-b-que you three in starkville,ms last month
  11. jermain
    11. Posted by jermain Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:33 pm EDT

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    this jermain mcgee from columbus,ms i played against him in highschool even back then he would always come down the court 7 ft tall playing point guard the guy never passed the ball and he would shoot up half court jumpers and he was a guy always used to the attention and now its starting to get to him maybe? but any ways he do deserves to be starting everyone deserves a chance if not he can always go to another team. good luck travis by the way enjoyed that bar-b-que you three in starkville,ms last month
  12. rodney
    12. Posted by rodney Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:48 pm EDT

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    This is Rodney Outlaw, Travis cousin, I think people failed to realize that this is a man that has desires to get better everyday, and talks about it daily. He's not a selfish person at all, he just wants to contribute to the team more. I dont think the Blazers would be happy with a guy thats not trying to get better with dreams of becoming a household name.

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Ball Don't Lie is an NBA blog edited by J.E. Skeets. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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