Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Five weeks into the start of next season, John Salmons(notes) will turn 31 years old. Last year, taking a step down from what was a career year in 2008-09, he rounded out to about an above-average player for the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks; and Milwaukee just agreed to re-sign him to a deal that will pay Salmons $39 million over five seasons.

This has been a good day for NBA basketball players.

This isn't an outrageous deal. John Salmons making around $8 million in 2015 (David Aldridge, who first reported the deal, says that the Bucks will have a buyout option in the final season; but this would still mean Milwaukee sends money Salmons' way), yeah, that's pretty bad. But this isn't the worst free- agent signing we saw Thursday. But couldn't the Bucks, who clearly appreciate what Salmons brings to the table, have waited a bit? Made John, perhaps, a bit more tradeable near the end of his contract?

Now, we don't know how the deal is put together. It could be front-loaded (which would leave Salmons still pretty overpaid initially, in my book), with the numbers dwindling from next season until 2015, but we're just a day and a half into negotiating time. And even with all the massive contracts floating around, couldn't we just get a bit of patience?

Because Salmons is a wing player. He depends on his quickness and just enough hops to get free to work shots over the tops of defenders. And shooting guards like Salmons just don't age well. In fact, by the time they hit 33 or so, they look pretty awful. And Salmons, for the first half of his first half of 2009-10, looked absolutely terrible with Chicago. Anyone who was watching closely surely saw that as a sign of things to come, even if the 30-year-old picked it up as the year moved along.

And the fear, to me, is that you get 1 1/2 years (and that's a bit of a stretch, based on his early play in Chicago last season) of Salmons sustaining this production at age 31, before the drop-off. And you would then pay four years and around $32 million for the right to sponsor that drop-off, with a contract that seems pretty untradeable.

The Bucks are shooting to sustain, though. They're done with that brief grab at going young, and are moving ahead with a (hopefully) healthy Andrew Bogut(notes) leading the way. Brandon Jennings(notes) will be a year older and (again, hopefully) a lot better from the field in his second year. Corey Maggette(notes) will help the Bucks (last in the NBA in 2009-10 at earning whistles) get to the line more. And Drew Gooden(notes) is a master at turning loose balls and broken plays (Milwaukee had a lot of those, last season) into high-percentage scores.

And Salmons can fit in, here. He can score on plucky drives, shoot from the perimeter, and make the sound pass. His defense has fallen off a bit, but he can still lock down now and again, and he's a good locker room guy.

Five years, nearly $40 million, though. Woof. We'll see how this works.

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30 Comments

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  1. Ryan s
    1. Posted by Ryan s Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:16 pm EDT

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    With Michael Redd making progress to be back in October I dont even see Salmons starting, unless the play to go with him at the 3 and Maggette at the 4, with Gooden at the 5 until Bogut comes back. So either they go with a small lineup or he's an expensive backup.
  2. Udahman62
    2. Posted by Udahman62 Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:20 pm EDT

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    One/half good Year does NOT constitute $40m SALARY...BIG GULP But they'll be great in the near term!
  3. Elias E
    3. Posted by Elias E Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:21 pm EDT

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    Redd will NEVER play for the Bucks again. The Bucks are absolutely TERRIBLE when Redd is on the court.
  4. BucksFan74
    4. Posted by BucksFan74 Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:22 pm EDT

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    Michael Redd is done - atleast in Milw
  5. The King of Sting
    5. Posted by The King of Sting Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:22 pm EDT

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    you can't see salmons starting for us? - You apparently didnt watch a single bucks game last year
  6. The King of Sting
    6. Posted by The King of Sting Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:23 pm EDT

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    Salmons was good before he got to chicago - he's worth this contract
  7. carprin
    7. Posted by carprin Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:32 pm EDT

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    Joe Johnson $119 Million !!!! WOW.!!!..... I'm taking my son to the court every day for 2 hrs per day
    Joe Johnson is a nice player but $119 Million?
    Rudy Gay $96 Million? For Memphis? when have they been in the Playoffs.
    I know Black Folks did not get thier 40 Acres and a mule but this is rediculous.
    I though we were in a recession?
  8. doitriteconcrete
    8. Posted by doitriteconcrete Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:37 pm EDT

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    I think Mike will surprize all you people.
  9. BRENT
    9. Posted by BRENT Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:37 pm EDT

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    This is a great move for the bucks....with a starting five of Bogut, Gooden, Maggette, Salmons and Jennings were a great threat in the East, especially with as deep of a bench as we have, all depending on who comes back or what happens with trades!!!
    FEAR THE DEER ANOTHER YEAR!!
  10. Nick
    10. Posted by Nick Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:42 pm EDT

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    Joe Johnson: 29 years old, 22 ppg w/ Hawks 20 mil per year
    John Salmons: 30 years old, 20 ppg w/ Bucks (about 17ppg over same period) and 8 mil per year...
    Looks like a good deal for Mil-town to me...
  11. Mike D
    11. Posted by Mike D Thu Jul 01, 2010 5:05 pm EDT

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    An "above-average player?" It sounds like someone who never watched the Bucks 2nd half last year wrote this. Easily the Bucks best player down the stretch. Salmons is getting jobbed here, he should have fired his agent. If he waited a week, NY or someone that misses on all these FA’s would have given him 10+ easy.
  12. j_blunt05
    12. Posted by j_blunt05 Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:04 pm EDT

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    Why oh why are so many Bucks fans this delusional about Redd? Stick a fork in him. At this point, the Bucks would be ecstatic to get 20 minutes a game, maybe 10 points out of him. He's going to be some major trade bait this season.
  13. BrianT
    13. Posted by BrianT Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:22 pm EDT

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    I just did a quick scan of Dwyer's recent articles and it appears that no contract signing is ever good. To resign your leading scorer for LESS than 8 mill per is not bad. I beginning to think that Yahoo! signed a terrible contract when they signed this writer.
  14. John
    14. Posted by John Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:41 pm EDT

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    michael redd is a bum...he will never play in the nba again
  15. John
    15. Posted by John Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:43 pm EDT

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    michael redd is a bum...he will never play in the nba again
  16. Ben D.
    16. Posted by Ben D. Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:55 pm EDT

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    Color me shocked on this one: John Hammond said last week that Salmons was going to opt-out; I just assumed he was going to leave Milwaukee then!
    Anywho, this is great news because I, too, would like to say good-bye to Redd. This will help do that.
  17. Brett
    17. Posted by Brett Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:08 pm EDT

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    Same guy
  18. Big Crazy Dave
    18. Posted by Big Crazy Dave Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:39 pm EDT

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    @ Ryan - Redd was a great scorer and has been a long-time Buck, but the guy is DONE. He hasn't played much in a year and a half and the Bucks were worse with him on the floor. His big value is his $18m expiring deal, which will become valuable down the stretch this season.
    I would have prefered a Salmons deal around the $26m4 year mark, front loaded to read $8m, $7m, $6m, with the 4th a team option for $5m. Any other off-season, this would have happened...this off-season...too much money and hype around the league.
    Bucks shooting for Win-now strategy.
  19. Matthew
    19. Posted by Matthew Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:49 pm EDT

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    Don't be surprised to see Redd, Maggette, and Gooden coming off the bench next year (assuming Redd even plays). I can really see the Bucks sticking with their more defensive minded forwards in the starting five with a scoring punch coming off the bench to help prevent lulls. Hopefully the Bucks are able to sign Ridnour at a reasonable rate to keep their core group from last season intact.
  20. Tim
    20. Posted by Tim Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:50 pm EDT

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    Glad this deal is sounding like it's getting done. The Bucks now have disgusting depth, and Hobson should be a very good wing player in a few years. Now he has years to develop and is not going to be thrown into the mix. If he is pro-ready as it is, then lucky us.
    My only worry is if all these guys can play well together. The Bucks got a lot of production out of a very lowly roster that beginning of last season no one expected much from. Now that they're stacked, who gets the ball? It still has to go through BJ3 and Bogut. One of their biggest problems last year was getting to the hoop, getting to the line, and finishing around the rim. They should be able to address all those concerns with the guys they've brought in (Sanders looks like he could be a beast, btw). Hammond is a very smart guy. I think keeping Ridnour should be next on the docket. Other than that, I'm very satisfied with what they've done.
    The Bucks needed some quality vets who can score, they already had a good young nucleus that played well together and was developing. Now they should have it all. I see no reason they can't finish in the top 5 in the east again (would've if Bogut didn't get hurt), possibly top 4 regardless of who goes where in the big free agent blow-out. Yes, one or two teams are going to walk away with LBJ, Wade, Bosh, and Amare or maybe two or three, but I'd compare the Bucks depth to the Celtics from last season. They just have waves of guys they can send at you. Very exciting.
  21. mark
    21. Posted by mark Thu Jul 01, 2010 9:18 pm EDT

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    Charles Barkley would call this deal TURRIBLE. Salmons took over half a decade to break out and it was not for a good team, which skews his numbers (David Lee's next team is going to find this out when he drops to 16 and 7 a night for max money.) Salmons might have two years left at this productivity level and his speed will become an issue fast as he ends up covering SGs and SFs who can run circles around him.
    There's a reason the Bucks haven't won jack since Kareem.
  22. chris l
    22. Posted by chris l Thu Jul 01, 2010 10:16 pm EDT

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    bucks fans suck!!! Redd was a loyal buck and all you can do is dog him whenhe gets such bad injuries?? When Jennings leaves you after his rookie contract remember where the karma came from. Punks who scream loyalty at players are just punks. why should a player be loyal when fans and organiations arent?
  23. TJ
    23. Posted by TJ Thu Jul 01, 2010 10:25 pm EDT

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    If they don't sign him, the bucks are donkeys. The fact they do sign one of the better players for us last year, they're still donkey's in the so called experts that type their stupid ass comments. You know what how about you just stop watching sports and your life will be so much easier and so much less distraction for you while you're washing your trailer home. Geez....I'm glad the Bucks are doing what they can to show the fans they want to win. Remember Hammonds has a winning record of building teams. I think he knows a little bit more then most of us...
  24. myerscur000
    24. Posted by myerscur000 Thu Jul 01, 2010 11:36 pm EDT

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    really chris?! really? u2 mark. Charles Barkley was a good basketball player but some of this he has no clue. this was a good pick up for the bucks. Salmons helped out the bucks when he came here. the bucks went 22-8 when he arrived. remember that. bucks will be back in the playoffs this yr. and brent said it perfectly, FEAR THE DEER ANOTHER YEAR!!!
  25. Pork Chop
    25. Posted by Pork Chop Thu Jul 01, 2010 11:59 pm EDT

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    I'm a Big Bucks fan. I think Redd would be great off the bench for 18-20min. a night. By the end of the season he could be 6th man of the year...F.T.D.

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