Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Maybe Rudy Fernandez(notes) shouldn't have set that NBA rookie record a few years ago. Remember which one he claimed?

I didn't. Skeets and Tas gave me a bit of a trivia lesson earlier this month, and when the question was posed as to which NBA rookie set the record for most 3-pointers in a season, I was stumped.

It was Fernandez with 159 during 2008-09. Kind of blows me away that no other rookie has managed two 3-pointers a game in his rookie year, but the person behind the record just doesn't seem right. Fernandez, in his two NBA seasons, always struck me as an all-around talent, and not just a 3-point shooter. And Rudy, to his credit, has tried to push the perimeter-based part of his resume onto the backburner. Even took part in the dunk contest. I'm sorry for bringing that up.

But Portland Trail Blazers coach Nate McMillan, for whatever reason, doesn't see Rudy as someone to hand the ball to. It makes a little bit of sense — you want Brandon Roy(notes) using as many possessions as he can and Andre Miller(notes) is no slouch as a point man — but those guys can't hound the rock forever. Or for 48 minutes. So why not hand Rudy the ball, and at the same time, hand him his game back?

Ah, forget that. The Blazers are just going to trade the guy.

To possibly the Celtics, Bulls, or Knicks, Jason Quick reports.

All three would love to have him. And if I were a fan of either of those teams, I'd welcome him to a new city with open arms. I'd be wary about some things, but then I'd get past them.

What's to be wary about? Well, Fernandez hasn't been all that great in two NBA seasons. Average in his rookie year and below average last season. A fine shooter, to be sure, but someone who has taken a ridiculous 63 percent of his shots from behind the arc. Ray Allen(notes) is another (nearly) record-setting 3-point shooter and (weirdly) a dunk contest participant, and he's only taken a third of his career looks from long range. And even these days, with his forays to the basket seemingly few and far between, and the years ticking away, Allen takes only about 40 percent of his shots from behind the 3-point line.

On top of that, though Fernandez has started only nine NBA games in his career, three of those came in the playoffs last season, against the Suns. Phoenix, a team that can't play defense despite all the on-air proclamations about how things have improved markedly (or even partially) on that end. Should have been right up Rudy's alley, which sounds like an album title, and yet he managed only 7.3 points on 6-for-17 shooting. Five assists, during that turn, at just under 26 minutes a game.

And yet, this is where I throw all this stuff out. All this documentation of how things actually went down with him on the court. All this proof we have, spread out over 3,700 NBA minutes during the regular and postseason.

Because, if it's not his game that he's playing, how can we criticize him for not playing it well?

This is a prickly path to go down. You can scan the Internet for scads of columns I've written criticizing certain players for straying from a coach's seemingly righteous intended path. For wanting to play their game above the team game.

But Rudy, just by watching the guy play, seems different. There are a lot of Rudys in this league, players who aren't used properly in one fashion or another, and I think this guy could be a sterling pickup for a team that needs someone to run stuff off the bench. Or even a starter and second ball-handler. Perhaps, like — I don't know — Kirk Hinrich(notes) was in Chicago over the last two years?

Not to demand that he ends up in Cook County, but you get the picture. A starter and someone to take over on a team that can be aided by its point guard playing off the ball sometimes. Or, to take over running the show when the starting point man sits, because of the sheer amount of shoot-first backups in this league. Or just your typical mini-Manu, ham-and-egging it off the pine.

"Or just your typical mini-Manu, ham-and-egging it off the pine." Sportswriting.

Either way, with just one year and just under $1.25 million left on his contract (there's a quite affordable team option for $2.1 million to follow in 2011-12), Fernandez could be a steal. And even if he keeps playing the way he's played — slightly below average — he's a steal at ... $1.25 million!

So yes, team, give up that first-round pick. Give it up in an instant. This guy is either going to be a bust-out player for you, or well worth what a team like Chicago or Boston (with a selection in the low teens or probable 20s) would end up paying for a first-round guaranteed deal at that slot anyway. If you kept the pick and ended up drafting a guy of Rudy's 2010-11 caliber, you'd be ecstatic. Even with him playing at his lowest ebb, as we may have seen last season.

This is worth chasing down, NBA. Take advantage of a team that might not know what it has.

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111 Comments

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  1. r t
    1. Posted by r t Thu Jul 29, 2010 1:36 pm EDT

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    Rudy's handles leave a lot to be desired. He is an exciting player on the court, makes good passes and terrible ones, play's bad defense one possession then moves his feet really well the next time. He can get hot and score in bunches, or he will miss a couple and stop playing free and easy. He will do well for a team that will play him and let him run and gun without fear of getting benched for 1 mistake, but mini-manu he is not.
  2. Todd L
    2. Posted by Todd L Thu Jul 29, 2010 1:55 pm EDT

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    KD--a few typos. Take a second to re-read your stuff, please. Also, this seems like the perfect blog to which Travis will respond. Curious what he and other Blazer fans have to say on this. And if I'm Cleveland, I go for a trade--they're going to need someone to bring some excitement to their team, and Rudy can probably do a bit better in the Eastern conference than West.
  3. mcwelk
    3. Posted by mcwelk Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:13 pm EDT

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    Fernandez is better than Wes Matthews offensively.
  4. Travis
    4. Posted by Travis Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:18 pm EDT

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    Ha, here I am, Todd. :)
    I'm with you on this, KD, and I've watched just about every game Rudy has played in over the last two years. Rudy needs to be in the right system for him, and he needs to be given a pretty long leash. His handles, as #1 said, are really shaky, and he can't create his own shot off the dribble, but coming off of screens, playing in the open court, Rudy will "put points on your face." But not in 12 minutes of playing time off the bench. He hasn't shown the ability to come in cold, consistently, and knock down threes. Maybe that'll come, and maybe his nervousness played a big part in that for the Blazers. That's understandable.
    Rudy actually plays pretty solid defense for a guy who isn't real strong and isn't real quick.
    I've been pretty frustrated with Rudy at times, but not nearly as frustrated as I have been with Nate. I'm not sure whose career looks brighter at this point, but, yeah, Rudy would be a great fit for some teams. For other teams, it's not worth taking a second look at him. In addition to the teams mentioned by Quick, I think a team like New Orleans could use him. It'd really say something about how Rudy was used in Portland if Monte wanted him in NO...
    Btw, I'm writing for www.beyondthebeat.net now. Check it out sometime.
  5. Raymond
    5. Posted by Raymond Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:24 pm EDT

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    Steph Curry hit 166 3pt's last year. Just saying.
  6. theSchonz
    6. Posted by theSchonz Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:26 pm EDT

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    KD, as a Blazers fan and resident of Rip City I appreciate you pitching Rudy's services to teams.
    The reality is that he shoots 63% of his shots from beyond the arc because he has no other facet to his game. He can't take anyone off the dribble. He can't go left to save his life. He doesn't have the handles to maximize his quick step when using a screen. He is too intimidated to go into the lane (the prevailing theory for some Blazers fans is that the Ariza takedown from the spring of '09 has permanently instilled this fear).
    So, what does he have? He has the couple-stutter-steps-forward-then-step-back three, the wide-open-in-the-corner three, and the transition three. Oh, and I gotta give him credit for superior court vision, too. That's about it.
    And mind you he's whined and complained for 2 years now about wanting more minutes, deserving a bigger role, needing more this and that, despite not expanding his game or working on things to better thrive in this system.
    Factor in that he is el matador on defense and that he doesn't make smart decisions (better described as making risky passes on a team that runs the ultimate non-risky offense) and he's pretty much worked his way right out of Nate's and many fans' favor.
    Really, I applaud your sales effort, and I really hope he gets swapped for a 1st Round pick, cuz that seems like an as good as it gets return at this point.
  7. William "Eron"
    7. Posted by William "Eron" Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:32 pm EDT

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    @#3 Maybe he is slightly better than wes on the offensive side of the ball, but Wes doesn't throw up stupid circus threes with 15 on the clock and he actually plays d.
  8. crb
    8. Posted by crb Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:50 pm EDT

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    KD you're way wrong. As some one who lives and breathes the Blazers, Rudy can go. We loved him his first year but his 2nd was a disappointment. The loss of his close friend Sergio Rodiguez had a lot to do with it, but also his game plateaued. He can't drive, he can't slash. He has a knack for flashy plays but those are few and far between, not to mention littered with turnovers. He's poor on defense and CANNOT run the point. At least your bogus post gives me hope that other teams are over-valuing him. Man if you're this off base about Rudy, how can I trust you for good analysis on other NBA players I don't follow as closely?
  9. michael m
    9. Posted by michael m Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:19 pm EDT

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    Works for NY because they don't play defense either, in boston they would notice the vast defensive drop off from ray allen to rudy. But the situation in portland has been downhill for a year and a half, nate hated sergio and played rudy because he could shoot and the fans got pumped up. This year, with sergio gone rudy lost 2 points a game without the alley oop. This year, Rudy got injured, sergio was gone, and it became clear that the 2 spot belonged to Roy, and only him, and rudy wasn't gonna get enough minutes, or freedom from nate to really make some plays in the NBA. I'm just afraid that his value to the blazers is much lower than his value to other teams, and that makes him tough to trade without getting ripped off, and he's requested a trade
  10. Ryan
    10. Posted by Ryan Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:57 pm EDT

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    As a big blazer fan, I agree with just about everything theSchonz said. Rudy, to outsiders, is seen as this multi-faceted guard who can do a bit of everything, or the jack of all trades and the master of none. Realistically, he can't really do anything but play off screens and shoot the transition 3-ball. His defense is all show and no go: I can't count how many possessions I've seen where he takes about 30 shuffle steps to stay in front of his man and has ultimately gone nowhere.
    I will say, I'll miss his charisma and 3-point shooting, but when you're behind two guards who are clearly better than you (Roy & Miller) and a small forward with huge potential who has already shown he can learn better than you and actually defends (Batum), you're the odd man out and dont deserve the minutes you're requesting.
    According to 82games.com, 89% of Rudy's shots are jumpers. The other 11% of the time, he gets blocked 15% of those attempts. Could you imagine getting blocked once every 6 or 7 times you take it to the rim? That is not good, and a testament to his inability to perform in the lane. A lot of people will remember Rudy's drive into the lane and dunk over (or around, depending on who you ask) Dwight Howard. The reality is that we haven't seen that aspect of Rudy's game, consistently, in the two years he's spent in Portland. Given his extremely high level of timidness to even attempt to go into the lane, I don't know when we ever will.
  11. Gideon
    11. Posted by Gideon Thu Jul 29, 2010 4:27 pm EDT

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    First of all, I agree with the other Blazers fans who (like me) turned a bit sour on Rudy. His game is just very limited right now, and it's not clear whether his ceiling is much higher. The things that tend to improve with age and experience most are shooting, "basketball IQ", and strength. Rudy is already an excellent shooter, a very smart player, and is probably not going to put on much more muscle at age 25 and with his build. I don't see him improve his ball-handling skills or his foot-speed much, and those are his biggest weaknesses, IMO.
    That being said, I think that offensively he would be fantastic in certain systems. He is tireless in cutting and weaving around screens, and - as others observed - has great passing skills. Unfortunately for him, neither is very useful for the Blazers, whose offense is much more isolation and drive-and-kick heavy. There were a few glimpses, over his first two years, of the potential. Two that come to mind are the "Spanish connection" alley-oops that he got seemingly almost every game from Sergio, when he was still here. The other was when coming off curls with Oden, where he would immediately read the D, and made some great passes either to a rolling Oden or to an outside shooter.
    The two systems that come to mind as good fits are Utah's flex and the triangle. I would have loved to see what Rudy could do for Utah, though his D might be too suspect to get much PT from Jerry Sloan (would have been funny if Utah and Portland ended up swapping Rudy for Matthews...) Phoenix might also be a good spot, as long as Steve Nash is there to break down the defense.
  12. NormanD
    12. Posted by NormanD Thu Jul 29, 2010 4:44 pm EDT

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    As a GS Warrior fan, I am sad to say that Rudy fits the GSW hoops style! All offense, no defense! LOL! He should be a great pick up for a run-&-gun team.
  13. Steve-0
    13. Posted by Steve-0 Thu Jul 29, 2010 5:02 pm EDT

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    I think this is a classic example of a guy who just isn't as good as he thinks he is. Rudy was a Euroleague MVP, and took a significant pay cut to come ink a rookie contract in the NBA. His up-tempo free-wheeling style doesn't mesh well with Nate McMillan's slow-down half court offense. The problem is, Rudy just isn't good to have a system tailored just FOR him in the NBA. I think even if he gets traded you'll see him head back to Europe in a year or so. That's what happened to his buddy Sergio Rodriguez...
  14. rocky63215
    14. Posted by rocky63215 Thu Jul 29, 2010 5:29 pm EDT

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    Rudy Sucks!
  15. Ken
    15. Posted by Ken Thu Jul 29, 2010 5:44 pm EDT

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    I think the best scenario for all would be a three way trade between portland, boston, and ny. Where portland trades rudy and pryzbilla. Boston gets pryzbilla, ny gets rudy, and portland gets danillo galinari. Throw in draft picks and or cash here and there to balance out contracts.
  16. akb24b
    16. Posted by akb24b Thu Jul 29, 2010 6:04 pm EDT

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    Stephen Curry has the record...
  17. NormanD
    17. Posted by NormanD Thu Jul 29, 2010 6:24 pm EDT

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    /\ /\ ... yeah...Curry has the record.
  18. Adrian
    18. Posted by Adrian Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:15 pm EDT

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    Been a fan of Rudy since I saw him flying around in the Olympics. He was robbed in that dunk contest, and he should be a Bull soon.
  19. Gideon
    19. Posted by Gideon Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:25 pm EDT

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    Ken.... I don't know if you've noticed, but after Amare, Galinari is the one player the Knicks are least likely to trade. There's no chance in hell they trade him essentially straight-up for Rudy. Also, the Blazers don't need someone like Galinari, who would need minutes at the 4 behind LaMarcus Aldridge, or at the 3 behind Nic Batum. They need bench players (maybe a bruiser 4, and a D-and-3 2); and they need a starting or huge-upside PG to take over from Miller, now or next year.
  20. Ken
    20. Posted by Ken Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:46 pm EDT

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    @ gideon. It obviously wouldn't just be straight up, like I said draft picks, and other role players, plus boston can offer other things like sheeds contract. Gallo is really high in ny managements mind, so it would be a tough deal to pull, but I think gallo would fit well in portland. If ya noticed our players get injured a lot :p playing a manu ginobili type role and being a perennial 6th man award winner , and filling in for injured l.a. and batum at times. Maybe even starting ahead of batum, unless batums defense was needed for matchup purposes on that game night.
  21. Ken
    21. Posted by Ken Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:49 pm EDT

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    Also portland is looking for jay bay to ste up and become a more well rounded point. Armon johnson have impressed quite a few around here too as far as eventually taking over for miller. Course that all goes out the window if we can get the hornets management to pull the trigger on the cp3 trade again, and this time not back out. Either way looking forward to hopefully a healthy upcoming blazers season.
  22. give_and_go
    22. Posted by give_and_go Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:26 pm EDT

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    He shot 48% from behind the arc last year! Of course he's got the green light with that incredible percentage. But 19 minutes per game isn't enough. If Portland trades him to a team who knows how to utilize him, he'll have a break-out year.
    Also, he was robbed in the dunk contest. If you're going to have a stupid rule that says you can take as many attempts and misses as you want in two minutes, and the dude gets a spectacular dunk within the context of those rules, you can't knock points off when you didn't knock points off of Nate "hella bricked dunks" Robinson for doing the exact same thing the year before. Rudy's behind the backboard dunk was one of the best two dunks in the entire dunk contest that year. He was penalized for being European.
    Anyway, solid player.
  23. Nanda Linn Aung
    23. Posted by Nanda Linn Aung Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:05 pm EDT

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    I want him on my team, Magic..fits the bill perfectly with his 3s.
  24. trailblazer tom
    24. Posted by trailblazer tom Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:11 pm EDT

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    the blazers half court, shoot early or late style of offense will never allow rudy to be the player he was in europe. really to bad too because if you go and watch any of the film on him in europe with his mobility and shooting and passing he still would be able to dominate here. he would flourish in either the nicks system or boston. they would give him the freedom to play his style of game and would allow rudy to just be rudy and do what he does.
  25. bong
    25. Posted by bong Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:19 pm EDT

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    I feel like writing something fancy today, so I'll state this sentence twice.
    "I feel like writing something fancy today, so I'll state this sentence twice." Just saying.

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