Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Tue Jan 20, 2009 1:00 pm EST

Really, Riles? Jermaine O'Neal?

The word has died down a bit, Pat Riley helped to throw a little baking powder on that grease fire the other day, but it's worth briefly reminding you that any trade that would send Shawn Marion and his expiring contract to Toronto for Jermaine O'Neal could not be counted on as anything less than an absolute steal for the Raptors.

If you're a Raptor backer, you have to worry that the trade, as reported last week (Marcus Banks would also be moving along to Toronto) has died, that even Pat Riley is scared of O'Neal's knees. And as a Heat supporter, you also have to be scared at the idea of penny-wise ex-coaches working as personnel bosses, and that Riley would even consider giving up a cap space bonanza for O'Neal.

I mean, Riles is Riles. He'll compromise anything for the chance to win now, and you just have to learn to expect that from him. Sometimes it'll work; the Heat did raise a banner in 2006 after all. The ultimate "win now" champion.

But usually it doesn't. There are many smaller and more nuanced factors that explain away Riley's championship drought since leaving the Lakers in 1990, but the overriding theme is that Riles as a front office behemoth just doesn't really work to perfection that often.

Or, more than once. He had Dave Checketts reigning him in somewhat with the Knicks, but unchecked in Miami, the highs have been high, and the lows have been pretty low.

One such low allowed for Dwyane Wade to come on board, and a bit of cap space and expiring deals to work with as the remnants of one chase of the dragon neared the end of its run. Riley cashed those assets in on Shaquille O'Neal, and while he helped, he was also the third-leading scorer in the 2006 Finals. This was Wade's run.

Wade's still running, and the Heat have both expiring deals to work with, a youngish core, and the potential to take on quiet a bit of cap space should Miami decline to trade Shawn Marion for a longer contract, while letting the forward walk during the offseason. About $10 million in cap space, and possibly more if they can find some takers for Mark Blount's hefty expiring deal.

But to waste it on O'Neal? Jermaine's been pretty OK offensively this year, nothing more, but he still wants the ball a bit too much, and his once-dominant defense has really fallen off this season. This isn't to say Toronto is a better defensive team with O'Neal sitting, far from it, but they've been a better team with O'Neal on the bench, for whatever reasons you want to attribute this to.

And grabbing Marion's expiring deal could leave the Raptors with nearly $16 million in cap space this summer if they go full bore and pass on Joey Graham and this year's draft pick. That's a team-changing figure, and Riley wants to hand it to them?

I know that starting off with $10 million in cap space might not be enough to land Carlos Boozer, but Miami can get creative. They could think long-term. They could make the tough decisions now (working the phones, involving agents, exploring sign-and-trade options), or they can shrug their shoulders, bring in O'Neal, and talk up impending cap space and flexibility in 2010, when everyone is going to have impending cap space and flexibility.

You hope, for D-Wade's sake and for Michael Beasley's future, that this is all talk. That Riley's come to his senses. That this won't go down. But the mere idea that Riley would even consider this deal has to be off-putting.

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66 Comments

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  1. Ted H
    1. Posted by Ted H Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:25 pm EDT

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    I think the thought is this. The Miami Heat won't be winning anything this year or the next. They are too young and weak, and the East Big Three are too dominant. Just look at it now. Dwyane Wade is playing at an unbelievable level and they are still slightly above .500% and in the 5-8 range in the East. What this potential move would do, ironically, is set Miami up to pry away Chris Bosh from the Raptors in 2010. At that point, the Heat would have the superstar tandem of Wade and Bosh, along with youngsters Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, and Daequan Cook.
  2. Ruckus Roger
    2. Posted by Ruckus Roger Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    Firsty firsty!! Hi! Ruckus Roger in da houses!
    Riley is brilliant, a true genius GM. He will squeeze out whatever is left in JO, and he will contend for a title this season. You forget that the Miami weather will heal many of JO's ailments. GO RILEY!
  3. Ted H
    3. Posted by Ted H Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:25 pm EDT

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    Roger, Good point, I know the Heat are good,they are no scrubs. But they will not win the East, or the finals. MAYBE next year with JO and the young guys a year older they could contend but I still doubt it.
  4. the REAL Headless Chicken
    4. Posted by the REAL Headless Chicken Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    K.D., please proofread your first paragraphs. Like, always. You just shot your otherwise nice post by overseeing that Marion's contract already is in Miami and if at all they'd send it to the Raps.
  5. the REAL Headless Chicken
    5. Posted by the REAL Headless Chicken Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    And, what's so bad about pennywise? I like me some punk rock in the morning.
  6. Mike
    6. Posted by Mike Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:04 pm EDT

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    You said it, theyd have 16 million without Joey Graham and their draft picks, might a first rounder be passed to miami in this deal as well? If so, there would be more to think about but as reported it is a very uneven trade idea.
  7. Dennis H.
    7. Posted by Dennis H. Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

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    I think Danny Ainge would argue that the Heat aren't the ultimate win-now champion
  8. datn
    8. Posted by datn Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

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    danm 8
  9. yuanhuagao
    9. Posted by yuanhuagao Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    what are talking about?? not making any sense. Be logical man!
    I think heat should get JO. Because Marion will walk away this off season, when absolutely no need to re-sign him and give up Chris Bosh, Stomaire or Joe Johnson in 2010.
    Plus Beasley need one or two seasons to become a 20-10 guy, and Marion is a block of his development.
    JO can provide some front line help, but still don't expect the heat going anywhere this season or two. Because you don't have big, you don't have a good point guard, you don't have a deep bench..... if Wade injury, this is a garbage team man!!
    If Riley is smart business man, he will more focus on the long term future, you can't just win now (when you can't), and give up the future. Let's take a look at this year' free agent. Carlos Boozer and Artest may be the only guy can help this team, they may be want Mike Bibby at the point, but Boozer is going make this team a contender, and Bibby is getting old, and will you give him 5 year 50 million? but it is still not helping them to get a champion.
    So I think it's time to trade for JO and get 23 million plus Wade's 16 million off the book when 2010 come and re-sign Wade and get another super star for 15 million. By the time, Beasley is ready to go and they might end up some good player in the drafts and improve their bench.
  10. gordonwilllose
    10. Posted by gordonwilllose Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:11 pm EDT

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    Wade = good, Miami = bad. Wade + Miami (no Bosh) = no championship ever again. Wade + Bosh + Miami = championship!!!
  11. TheBiggestLakerFanEver
    11. Posted by TheBiggestLakerFanEver Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    Uhh...Miami is not a Title Contender this year...Roger, you're trippin' man. Miami won't even win it's division let alone it's conference. Miami will make a first round exit this year. Miami's not bad, but they aren't title contenders.
  12. timjh2484
    12. Posted by timjh2484 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:10 pm EDT

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    What is KD talking about, does he actually watch either of these two teams play? Miami is a short team meaing getting a 6-11 C/PF who is still an effecitve player is a good idea. Toronto is trying to get out and run more and needs a consistant athletic starting 3. Both players have huge contracts expiring either this summer (Marion) or next (JO). The real questions are 1)can Riley dump Bank's contract by packaging him with Marion 2) which summer does he want to be a player in '09 with $17Mill or '10 with $23Mill to spend. If they really want Boozer then its a no brainer.
    Also the Raptors would be sending out Anthony Parker not Graham as his contract is bigger (roughly $1M more) and Joey still has upside while Parker is in decline.
  13. the path of rage
    13. Posted by the path of rage Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    Wait, what? This trade would be perfect for Miami. First of all, it exchanges 09 caproom for 10, a MUCH better year of Free Agency. Who are the best free agents this year, Boozer? Artest? Andre Miller? .....pass. My biggest fear of keeping Marion's expiring contract would be that we'd go after Boozer this summer, who would be like Shaq all over again, randomly missing 35 games every time he bruises his leg. This guy is a complete joke and anyone who wants him is just setting themselves up for misery. Yeah, JO has his injuries, but for only 1.5 years, I can live with them as opposed to a 5 year commitment to Boozer.
    Secondly, it opens up a starting spot for Beasley (a player that can...*gasp*...create his own shot), which will make our starting lineup 50 times better than with Marion. And Beasley in the starting lineup finally allows for James Jones to get some playing time, a player we've struggled to find room for with Daequan's emergence.
    Who knows how the team would perform in comparison to the team we have right now, but this team is solely about 2010, and has no chance of competing with the likes of Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando before then.
  14. yuanhuagao
    14. Posted by yuanhuagao Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    they got Cook last year, Chalmers and Beasley this year, I love the way they draft and develop their rookie, so in the up coming drafts(2009 and 2010), hope they can find a couple or more good player through the draft to improve their bench.
    If they do get JO, and at 2010, they get Chris Bosh for 15 million and Steve Nash for some cap. They might end up great with :
    Bosh, Beasley, Haslem, Wade and Nash. On the bench: Cook, Chalmers, James Jones, Wright, ChrisQinn, and good rookie, good rookie, good rookie, 3 good rookies just like Cook..
    By that time, I think if they can pull up another trade and get a good center, they might be able to win a championship.
  15. Silas
    15. Posted by Silas Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:30 pm EDT

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    I know that this isn't the best move that could be made, but I still see why Miami would want to do it. Free agency is unreliable, and Miami has very specific needs - to let Marion walk for nothing would defeat the purpose of trading for him. Having JO will not put them in title contention by any means. That's laughable. But it will take the pressure off of the current front line (allowing Haslem to move back to the 4) so they can start addressing the point guard situation. The value of cap space in the upcoming offseason has been greatly overstated - letting Marion go for nothing would be foolish.
  16. Ralphredimix
    16. Posted by Ralphredimix Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:27 pm EDT

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    Please go back to damon jones' coat!!!
  17. A Yahoo! User
    17. Posted by A Yahoo! User Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:02 pm EDT

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    I agree with most of the comments and yes....Miami nightlife and the weather will cure any ailments J.O. has. Trade for O'neal,sign him to a lesser deal in two years,convince him that he actually needs to quit being a [profane]man up and play Center. Sign LBJ in 2010 and somehow trade for Hinrich to run the point...2010/'11 starting lineup: C:O'neal PF: Beasley SF:James SG:Wade PG: Hinrich
  18. yuanhuagao
    18. Posted by yuanhuagao Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    on the state sheet, if you get Bosh, Beasley and Wade, the other teams are going to get kill by their offense, just thinking about that Wade can give you 25 point, Bosh can give up at least 20 point, Beasley is a offensive weapons, and he is going to give you 20 point for sure. So if they got Nash, the way he push the ball, and get another defensive mind center. Plus through the drafts, hope they can give a lot player to help the bench. But with Cook, Chalmers, James Jones.... I think the Bench is going to be productive too. Don't forget this team is going to be young, physical and experienced with Bosh and Wade both play 8 years in the league, plus Steve Nash, who born in NBA.
  19. El
    19. Posted by El Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:57 pm EDT

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    a healthy Marion is not better than one leg JO?
  20. JoeyB
    20. Posted by JoeyB Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 pm EDT

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    how does this move have anything to do with chris bosh????
  21. harry
    21. Posted by harry Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

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    why does the headline on the front page say "the heat would be wise to pass on the raptors offer to send them o'neal for wade"
    can you at least print the correct headlines when your attempting to state the obvious?
  22. harry
    22. Posted by harry Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

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    "Iffy proposition
    The Heat would be wise to pass on the Raptors' offer to send them Jermaine O'Neal for Dwyane Wade."
    notice anything wrong? please think before you post your stupid headlines
  23. yuanhuagao
    23. Posted by yuanhuagao Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    most likely LBJ is not going to leave Cleveland, if he does, he will head to NEw York, there is no reasons he will head to Miami, because Business is Business. Miami will not be able to give room for two best players in NBA. So I think Bosh and Nash are the best candidates in 2010. Nash can always play, because with the way he play, he don't need a lot of energy. Bosh is going to improve his defense in the next two years, he might end up another Kevin Garnett. With Cleveland, Boston and Orlando right there, Miami is going nowhere for sure the next two years.
  24. harry
    24. Posted by harry Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:16 pm EDT

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    stupid prick yahoo admins delete my comments
    headline to article---***
    Iffy proposition
    The Heat would be wise to pass on the Raptors' offer to send them Jermaine O'Neal for Dwyane Wade.
    *****
    notice anything wrong with that? please yahoo, ATTEMPT to write and proofread your articles AND headlines.
  25. timjh2484
    25. Posted by timjh2484 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:10 pm EDT

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    JoeyB, I'm with you on this. I know Bosh is highly coveted but whoever thinks he'll sign for $15M (which by the way is about what he makes now) and not a max deal is out of their minds. Also Miami just drafted a kid who could potentially be playing at a very high level by then and plays the same possition.

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