Ball Don't Lie - NBA


Restricted free agents, I'm sorry, but they're a pain.

Every summer, players that aren't huge knockout stars tend to get shafted as restricted free agents. Coming out of their rookie contracts, these semi-stars usually have to fruitlessly flirt with other teams, signing offer sheets that may or may not be matched, only to usually come back to their original team after an odd, potentially chemistry-killing, summer.

Sure, the owners make it up to the players by wildly overpaying them at age 30 a few years later, but what about right now? And what will it take for the incumbent teams to let these guys go free, assuming they sign an offer sheet with another team? Here's our guesses, along with the top eight restricted free agents.

1. David Lee(notes)

He's a system guy! His stats were trumped up because the Knicks ran so much! He's useless away from Mike D'Antoni, I say, I say!

No, he's a double-double guy. He's been great since his rookie year, he just didn't get minutes until he was given a real coach (are you honestly going to call Larry Brown's 2005-06 tank job "real" coaching?), and this is why we use per-minute, pace-adjusted stats. John Hollinger's PER, which is a catch-all stat that takes into consideration the pace of a team compared to the pace of the league, had Lee at 19 last season. Up from 18, the season before, and down from 20 the year before that.

In other words, right where he's been all along.

What will it take for New York to decline a match? That's tough, as the Knicks still fancy themselves 2010 contenders, the cap is dropping, and the team is not going to be able to find a way to dump Eddy Curry(notes). It's not the size of the contract, it's the length. I could very well see New York passing on even a great talent like Lee if his new deal ran after 2009-10.

2. Marvin Williams(notes)

No, he's not Chris Paul(notes). He's not Deron Williams(notes), and he's probably not the all-world scorer/slasher Hawks fans had in mind when Atlanta drafted Marvin ahead of Paul and Deron back in 2005.

But he is a sound defender and efficient scorer who, at age 23, will only get better. Seriously, this guy can defend damn well, and he's a perfect fit on a team with lots of hungry mouths to feed and not enough basketballs to go around. He gets to the line, too. Gives Mike Bibby(notes) a chance to adjust his calf sleeve.

What will it take for Atlanta to decline a match? Quite a bit. Williams' qualifying offer is up over $7.3 million, he's probably worth a little more, and I bet the Hawks (a team far away from the luxury tax, looking to win now) would even venture into eight figures in Williams' first year. Not that they'll have to. Though Marvin would be a fabulous fit in Portland.

3. Nate Robinson(notes)

Now, Nate's pace-adjusted stats did bump up a notch in D'Antoni's system, but I think this is a perfectly explainable small jump (from a 15 PER to 18) considering his age and abilities. That's a long way of saying, "yes, I think Nate can keep it up on a Trail Blazers team that walks it up the floor."

Not that Nate should join the Blazers.

What will it take for New York to decline a match? Not much. Robinson kept the Knicks in a ton of games last year with his all-around play, but don't you get the feeling that his rather effervescent personality wore on Mike D'Antoni a smidge? You could probably get this guy for an MLE starting salary. I do think he's worth it, Robinson's rep as a team-killing player really isn't deserved.

4. Ramon Sessions(notes)

I'm glad people are coming around on Ramon Sessions, it was obvious the guy was a starting-quality guard down the stretch of the 2007-08 season, and all the talk of full MLE money (to the Clippers, most recently) is deserved.

But he's also a guy who struggles to shoot three-pointers, and isn't going to put a great team over the top. The only sort of team he would put over the top would already have a no good point man in place, and Sessions would make things better by way of his sheer competency.

What will it take to get Milwaukee to decline to match? Bucks GM John Hammond hasn't tipped his hand, but you get the feeling (with Brandon Jennings(notes) on board, and Luke Ridnour(notes) around to just sort of hold serve quite below-averagely) he's thinking "Ramon is nice and all, but [Scott] Skiles doesn't like him, and do I really want him making seven million a year in 2013, with Jennings on board?"

5. Glen Davis(notes)

Davis runs the risk of being overrated because of his time spent on national TV this season, but he also runs the risk of being underrated if you purely look at his 2008-09 stats. Davis was nowhere near the same player in the second half of the season and the playoffs as he was in the first half, and in a good way.

Still, heaps of minutes pumped up his numbers in the playoffs, and his rebounding remains awful.

What will it take to get Boston to decline to match? I think Boston matches past the MLE. Seriously, Davis was rumored to go to a number of teams even earlier this month, but interest in his services fell by a ton when Boston started poking around and throwing out hints that they'd match. It's an arms race between Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland; and Danny Ainge doesn't want to lose Glen's chubby, kid-pushing wings.

6. Linas Kleiza(notes)

The Missouri product has shopped around. Cleveland showed interest, among others, and he's a fair player who would do quite well as a ninth man on a great team, or a first forward off the bench on a so-so outfit.

He's just two years removed from dropping 41 in a game, and if you could put this guy on a team where the coach would implore to drive more, you could have something. Linas Kleiza, driving more, more specifically.

What will it take to get Denver to decline to match? The Nuggets are right at the luxury tax line, so any contract to bring Kleiza back would nearly cost twice as much. He's good mates with the owner's son, but that's a tough call to make for a franchise that has paid quite a bit for first round flameouts before 2009.

7. Hakim Warrick(notes)

The prototypical fourth forward, Warrick could really use a change of scenery. Stuck on a team full of me-first types, playing for one of league's more debt-ridden owners, you think he wants to guard Zach Randolph(notes) (reeking of last night's vodka/cranberry) in practice every morning from October until April?

What will it take to get Memphis to decline to match? Probably MLE money. They have the cap space to absorb things, but the Griz are still looking to do things on the cheap. That's my hope, for Hakim, at least.

8. Josh McRoberts(notes)

McRoberts was last on the Pacers in scoring per game last year, at 2.4 a contest. And he picked up a pretty bad rep in his rookie year as a Trail Blazer/NBDL denizen. As though he were slumming in the minor leagues, and didn't need the seasoning.

In Indiana, though, things are different. Boy howdy, are they different. McRoberts grew a beard, starting having fun again, and would come off the Pacer bench to showcase an athletic, rebound-heavy game that could really work if he doubled or event tripled his minutes. And at age 22, he'll only get better.

What will it take to get Indiana to decline to match? Well, McRoberts looks like he's in My Morning Jacket, Larry Bird seems to be pretty into that, so in upwards of three or four million.

More BDL: Ranking the NBA's nine best unrestricted free agents

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75 Comments

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  1. Bobby
    1. Posted by Bobby Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:37 am EDT

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    The Pacers have already signed Josh McRoberts to a 2-year deal.
    http://pacersplace.com/2009/07/16/pacers-sign-josh-mcroberts-to-2-year-deal/
    Also, it was a rather cheap deal.
    Go Indiana White Boys!
  2. xangoir
    2. Posted by xangoir Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:50 am EDT

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    Warrick should be above Nate and Glen Davis. on the right team he could earn 6th man of Year.
  3. Travis
    3. Posted by Travis Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:59 am EDT

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    I'll take Warrick and Kleiza over Big Baby any day. In a lot of systems, or even just teams with more depth than Boston, Davis doesn't get many minutes at all. Anyone notice just how flat that buzzer-beating jumper was in the playoffs? That ain't droppin' 80% of the time. Tractor Traylor had more skills, just fewer KGs around him.
  4. Matt
    4. Posted by Matt Wed Jul 22, 2009 11:17 am EDT

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    I love Kleiza's versatility. Can play the 2, 3, or 4 if needed. Would be a fit on any team. Kind of wish the Cavs would have offered the rest of their MLE to him and not gone after Moon......though he should be a decent fit in Cleveland.
  5. Vittorio De Zen
    5. Posted by Vittorio De Zen Wed Jul 22, 2009 11:48 am EDT

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    I think Moon fits better with what Cleveland wants to do, but Kleiza would have been good as well.
    Heard the Raptors were after him for a while but now that they've got Jarrett Jack I don't think they have the money.
    Glen Davis probably deserves the mid-level from somebody. I'm not sure where he really fits now, though. Washington? Utah if Boozer goes?
    I've been hoping that Portland would go after Sessions but it seems it's just not happening. Blah. Really hope Lee and Marvin get taken care of, too. My buddy and I were talking about the possibility of Marvin in Toronto months and months ago - I still think he would have been a smarter investment than Turkoglu. Damn restricted free agency...
  6. razzle dazzle
    6. Posted by razzle dazzle Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:09 pm EDT

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    I really do feel badly for David Lee and Nate Robinson. These guys played their asses off for a lousy team and made the Knicks somewhat respectable after last season. I do hope they get their lion's share.
    As for Hakim Warrick, I've monitored his stats since he was a rookie and the dude deserves more. Memphis, trade him! He'd definitely be a better asset for a team like the Thunder.
  7. Lajames W
    7. Posted by Lajames W Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:09 pm EDT

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    Get Hakim some minutes somewhere. If he stays he can expect big minutes only when Zach is suspended (2-3 games), Taking care of personal business (strippers in the guise of dead relatives, again 2-3 games), or taking games off (if the coach has the authority to sit him 10-15 games). So 21 games of PT isn't that great and he deserves better.
  8. razzle dazzle
    8. Posted by razzle dazzle Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:16 pm EDT

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    Also, any team that struggles distributing the ball should throw $$$$$$$ (or themselves) at Ramon Sessions! He's a proven assist machine with low turnovers, which would fit well with... the Memphis Grizzlies. Even Kelly said it while writing about Hakim Warrick, who is "stuck on a team full of me-first types." Maybe the Grizzums need a you-first guy running the point.
  9. Coco
    9. Posted by Coco Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:24 pm EDT

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    Lee and Robinson will find some team to latch on to. Everyone can always use a gritty rebounder and an offensive sparkplug off the bench.
  10. steven h
    10. Posted by steven h Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:28 pm EDT

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    Not bad list... solid contributors that could help many teams...
    As a Laker Fan, if Lamar doesn't sign, I wouldn't mind getting two players that are still available... mayb make a run at Williams, we need his shooting and versatility, and mayb Powe/Ike for some rebounding and inside muscle... between Lamars' 9 mill we should be able to get a couple of these guys...but lets see, I hope Lamar does sign though... he should, you think any of the available agents wouldn't sign that contract lamar didn't for any reason, agents or not... We could even make a run at D. Lee with that offer... LOL...
  11. Matt
    11. Posted by Matt Wed Jul 22, 2009 1:17 pm EDT

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    Cavs need some bigs though still even with getting Shaq and bringing back Varejao.
    Z is old....still a good bench guy and will be one of the best backup centers this year.
    But the Cavs are thin at the 4. Lebron is gonna be playing big a lot this year as things stand now. JJ Hickson is a nice young talent...but he's still hurt and won't play any summer ball. Darnell Jackson is a hustle guy and nothing more. Decent 5th or 6th Forward/Center option...but that's it.
    Kleiza would be a nice 3/4 to put along side Lebron when they 'go small'. Now? Moon and Parker will get time at the 3 when Lebron goes big. Moon isn't a bad option there....but think Kleiza would have been the better fit. Would also be a nice young player to grow with Lebron.
  12. Freddyjay
    12. Posted by Freddyjay Wed Jul 22, 2009 1:41 pm EDT

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    i agree with razzle/dazzle! lee and nate kept the knicks in so many games last year(s) that i can't imagine how great the fan letdown will be when these two are gone. gallinari didn't hardly play last year and danfoni is touting him as the go to guy next year?
    i'm really looking forward to the knicks next year without lee and nate!!! the thrill of watching an interview with wilson chandler, larry hughes,and eddie curry is something only an insomniac would enjoy.
    go knicks
  13. danielsu0710
    13. Posted by danielsu0710 Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:22 pm EDT

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    lets go davis!!!!! :) ( i hope davis go to the cavs to help out z and replace varejao who left...
  14. razzle dazzle
    14. Posted by razzle dazzle Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:43 pm EDT

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    Daniel, Varejao is still a Cav. He was given a ludicrous contract extension not too long ago.
  15. DraftMaster
    15. Posted by DraftMaster Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    So... You write "I don't think [Nate Robinson]'s worth [a MLE]...", and you follow it up with "...Robinson's rep as a team-killing player isn't really deserved." What exactly do you mean with this sentence?
  16. DraftMaster
    16. Posted by DraftMaster Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    disregard, misread it
  17. verlis g
    17. Posted by verlis g Wed Jul 22, 2009 8:31 pm EDT

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    Hak wants to stay in Memphis and thinks the Grizz are heading for better days. His words not mine. I say Grizz win 40 plus games this upcoming season.
  18. big dog
    18. Posted by big dog Wed Jul 22, 2009 9:12 pm EDT

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    on the right team nate robinson can be win sixth man of the year . he was the heart and soul of ny.
  19. theresa r
    19. Posted by theresa r Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:20 pm EDT

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    for the lakers re sign odom and get marvin williams........laker nation.....
  20. Stephen Janetzki
    20. Posted by Stephen Janetzki Thu Jul 23, 2009 12:37 am EDT

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    If I were to rank these players in order I would go;
    Tier One
    David Lee
    Tier Two
    Marvin Williams
    Nate Robinson
    Tier Three
    Hakim Warrick
    Ramon Sessions
    Tier Four
    Linas Kleiza
    Glen Davis
    Tier Five
    Josh McRoberts
  21. MichaelA
    21. Posted by MichaelA Thu Jul 23, 2009 1:54 am EDT

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    If I had to pick, it would be Hak. The only reason why Memphis hasn't done so good ever since they made the playoffs for a few years straight is because Jerry "the pest" drafted all bad guys and traded all our good ones out of our city. West, who was suppost to be the best GM didn't do shxt. when he first got here in 2001 he drafted Battier, then drafted Jamal Tinsley when he could have drafted Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas. Then he drafted Will Soloman over Mehmet Okur and Earl Watson. But at least he traded 2 of the players to get Gasol. Gasol though is a player who will only play for a winning team. He showed he could produce at first then he cheated the team by on purposely missing shots so the team finally said thats enough. Back to West now in the 2002 nba draft he drafted Drew Gooden over Amar'e Staudamire and for our round two pick in the 2002 draft, he drafted Robert Archibald when we could have drafted Carlos Boozer. Now to the 2003 nba draft when he drafted Marcus Banks and traded him to Boston for their pick who was Troy Bell who ended up sucking and we also got Dahntay Jones in that trade who sucks. We could have gotten Luke Ridnour, David West, Boris Diaw, Travis Outlaw, Leandro Barbosa or Josh Howard if he didnt pick Marcus Banks, Then West picked Kendrick Perkins who is a
    good player but traded him to Orlando who then traded him to Boston. He could have picked Josh Howard or Leandro Barbosa if he wouldn't have picked Perkins. West drafted Hak in 2005 and traded for Lawrence Roberts who as usual ended up sucking. So we could have ended up being a great team if it wasn't for West. Many think he was just caring about his paycheck when he was here and didn't care about the team. I agree with that. So don't say that the Grizzlies suck because of all our GM's its mostly West's fault. This year we should have a pretty decent team since our we now have Zach Randolf and our summer league team finished with a 5-0 record. Marcus Williams is showing that he can do many things since he got 17 assists in one game and hit one game winning shot so far. We'll see for Hasheem Thabeet. I'll go with Verlis G and say the grizz will probably be the suprise team and win 40 games or more this year.
  22. saberthooooth
    22. Posted by saberthooooth Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:03 am EDT

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    pacers with no point guard and no center
    and with lits of cap space.
    they needa go after
    either..
    ramon sessions
    david lee
    glen davis
    ai
    or they should get andre miller at the cheapest price and try to fill in there roster with like warrick and david lee/big baby try to make the pacers as good as they can
  23. razzle dazzle
    23. Posted by razzle dazzle Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:37 am EDT

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    Pacers are near the luxury tax already, tp. They let Jarrett Jack go for this reason and singed Earl Watson at a discount.
  24. AntonG
    24. Posted by AntonG Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:53 am EDT

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    i wish the philippines will win against korea...............................
  25. MAX_IN_MISSOURI
    25. Posted by MAX_IN_MISSOURI Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:16 am EDT

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    What about a morning jacket? lol

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