Ball Don't Lie - NBA


After 1,230 regular season games, the NBA Playoffs are finally here. (Adam Haluska hallelujah!) KD and I will deliver our first round thoughts and predictions tomorrow, but for now we turn to the bloggin' team experts. On tap: Ben Q. Rock from Third Quarter Collapse and Jeff Wong from The Score breakdown the Orlando-Toronto series.

Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse: Orlando won the season series 2-1, but take that information with a huge grain of salt. Chris Bosh missed the third meeting between the Raptors and Magic, which we won, but barely. The game was tight until the fourth quarter, when T.J. Ford bone-headedly took it upon himself to end all of the Raptors' possessions in the first six minutes.

I'd be stating the obvious if I said we need to contain Chris Bosh and Toronto's pick-and-roll game. Dwight Howard is inarguably a better player than Bosh is, but Howard has difficulty guarding Bosh because he has the range to draw him away from the basket, but also the quickness to drive past him to the basket for an easy score. Instead, I offer this insight: The Magic have a point differential of just -8 in the two games versus Toronto in which Bosh played despite turning the ball over nearly twice as often. If they can find a way to force more turnovers — paging Rashard Lewis, Orlando's steals leader — or a way to reduce their own, they shouldn't have too much trouble putting Toronto away in six games. Lewis and Turkoglu should be able to shoot the Magic into the second round. The website 82games.com shows the Raptors won just 19% of their games against teams in the top-10 in effective field goal percentage; the Magic are second only to the Phoenix Suns in that category.

However, since I'm not sure that we'll be able to force Ford and Jose Calderon into making mistakes, and since I am sure these teams are equally talented, I predict the Magic will win the series in seven games, with home-court advantage being the deciding factor. What's that, you say? We have a better road record (27-14) than home record (24-16)? Chill. 10 of those 16 home were at the hands of Western teams, and they don't figure into the discussion at this point. The Magic are 8-3 this year at home against Eastern playoff teams. It won't be easy, but they'll manage.

*****

Jeff Wong, Courtside at The Score: What to watch: how the Raptors will contain the Magical offense, headlined by Rashard Lewis' perimeter shot, Hedo Turkoglu's playmaking and Dwight Howard's inside stuff. In three games this season, Orlando averaged 105.7 points on 49% shooting. Mr. Obvious says, defend better.

What to hear: how commentators will pronounce Andrea "Bargnani." It's barn-YAH-nee. If you can say "Turkoglu," you can say "Bargnani."

A quick look at a few key players:

Chris Bosh — He struggled mightily in his first playoff experience last year against the Nets. How will he do this time, against his buddy Dwight?

Rasho Nesterovic — Our best defensive player has emerged offensively as a starter in the last month and a half. Will he be back to playing the 11 minutes that he averaged against Orlando this season?

TJ Ford — Will we see him play point guard or faux point guard, in the Mike James mold?

Jose Calderon — No questions here. He'll do his usual stellar job, which will be needed especially if TJ shoots more than he passes.

Andrea Bargnani — He tends to perform better in big games. Will he be on consistently during this series?

Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Carlos Delfino — Can they keep the Magic's shooters in check?

Final prediction: this goes the full seven, with the Magic winning it on a controversial call. That's the only way they can beat the Raptors, right?

Previous Blogger Playoff Previews: BOS-ATL | CLE-WAS

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54 Comments

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  1. the REAL Headless Chicken
    1. Posted by the REAL Headless Chicken Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    Chris Bosh in seven. By inches. I don't know why. Maybe just because Rashard is on the other team and I thought much of Rashard since his High School days. But since any team with a player I favor loses in the playoffs* it will be Bosh.
    * Except for one with Jordan on it.
  2. ffffffff
    2. Posted by ffffffff Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    raptors in 6
  3. MALKIT S
    3. Posted by MALKIT S Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:32 pm EDT

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    this is gonna be a crazy series
    i cant wait
  4. Jacky
    4. Posted by Jacky Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

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    i would say magic in 5 also
  5. Age
    5. Posted by Age Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:34 pm EDT

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    Magic baby!
  6. ben g
    6. Posted by ben g Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:23 pm EDT

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    RAPTORS IN 6
    CB4 gonna bee crazzzzzzzzzzzzy~!
  7. Caribou
    7. Posted by Caribou Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:14 pm EDT

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    as a raps fan i hate to say it, but magic in 5
  8. claudio_yoon
    8. Posted by claudio_yoon Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

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    Raptors baby!!!!!.....
  9. Patrick Chewing
    9. Posted by Patrick Chewing Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:02 pm EDT

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    Magic in five. Toronto will probably squeak one out
  10. Anton
    10. Posted by Anton Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    I don't really care who wins this one - I like both teams.
  11. akskafidag
    11. Posted by akskafidag Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    Magic in 6, it'll be a fun series.
  12. mr.fastball
    12. Posted by mr.fastball Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

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    magic in 6, dwight is just to good.
  13. skinnyrealtor.com
    13. Posted by skinnyrealtor.com Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:07 pm EDT

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    Another series no one will remember since winner will get treated like Roy Jones Jr (knocked out in second round). GO LAKERS!
  14. niti s
    14. Posted by niti s Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    Raptors in 6 games. school time for howard, bosh takes over this series. the raptors are going to be the sleeper team in the playoff.
  15. Crispy19
    15. Posted by Crispy19 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    Magic in 6
  16. Crispy19
    16. Posted by Crispy19 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    Magic in 6!!!!!!!!!!!!
  17. Lee M
    17. Posted by Lee M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:23 pm EDT

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    If you look at the season series.....I think that for the Raptors, Turkoglu is a bigger concern than Howard....Raps in 7
  18. Deegots
    18. Posted by Deegots Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    Raptors in 6 Games. Howard vs. Bosh. Pretty even there. Power vs. Finesse. But, Bosh has range on his jumper, which forces D12 to guard CB4 outside of the key, leaving the Magic vulnerable without their #1 rebounder under the glass. Plus, D12 can't keep up with CB4's quickness, which might put D12 into some foul trouble. Orlando's point guards can't defend T.O.'s 2 headed point guard. (TJ & Jose) But, I think it will all come down to who hits their 3 pointers. Rashard & Hedo vs. the #2 3-point shooting team in the league. This will be a fun series. Let's see what happens.
  19. kiem james g
    19. Posted by kiem james g Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:36 pm EDT

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    Magic in five!!!!!! watch out 4 supermann!
  20. Ro
    20. Posted by Ro Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:53 pm EDT

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    Raptors in four! Gigs if you read this you suck.
  21. Not a Kicker
    21. Posted by Not a Kicker Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:09 pm EDT

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    Howard cannot contain bosh, its up to the rest of the crew, it will go 7, either way..
  22. warriors49ers
    22. Posted by warriors49ers Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:35 pm EDT

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    Raptors suck
    Magic in 5
  23. gepotmd
    23. Posted by gepotmd Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:08 pm EDT

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    with the "SUPERMAN" in town, i guess they'll take it home in 6 games.
  24. 'A Laker'
    24. Posted by 'A Laker' Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

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    Magic at 4. Hopefully the Raptors would play well to have a good series and make it to game 7. But still the Magic will win.. ;-)

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