Ball Don't Lie - NBA


You've my heard my crackpot prediction — Magic in 6 — and KD throws in his two cents below, but we also called in four of the NBA blogosphere's finest to help set up the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Up first: Jeff Clark from CelticsBlog and Ben Q. Rock from Third Quarter Collapse breakdown the highly anticipated Boston-Orlando series.

CelticsBlog: At full strength the Celtics might be the Magic’s toughest matchup. Perkins is able to body up Howard while Garnett provides superb help defense and when he’s in the game Leon Powe is a master at drawing charges on the big fella. Since that full strength Celtics squad can play Howard more straight up than any other team, they can stay at home on the shooters.

Of course, none of that matters one bit. No KG, no Leon Powe, and to be fair, no Jameer Nelson and Courtney Lee is out for at least Game 1.

Boston still has Perkins, who can muscle up Howard. However, that only helps when Howard is in the post and when Perkins is on the floor. Kendrick has a tendency to get into foul trouble and he’s got an oft-injured shoulder that he grabbed in pain at the end of Game 7. In the last meeting between these teams, the Magic used Dwight’s quickness and athleticism to get him going. They used him on pick and rolls where he was able to attack the basket at a run. Then the guards penetrated to force the Celtics bigs to help off of Howard, which is pretty much defensive suicide.

It doesn’t help that the Magic (specifically Lewis and Turkoglu) can get hot from beyond the arc and light up any defense. Of course, they seem to live by the three and die by it.  Boston was able to wait out a few hot shooting performances in the last series (though just barely in some cases) because they trust the defensive game plan and execute it as well as they can with the personnel they have.

It would be hard to expect a near triple double every time out for Rondo, but who’s going to stop him on the Magic? Maybe even Marbury can get things going. It would be nice to see some more productivity out of the bench in general. It would be really nice if House continued his hot shooting and Scalabrine could give us some more quality minutes. If nothing else, we know that Mikki Moore has six floppy fouls to throw at Howard if necessary.

And somehow I made it to the end of this without even mentioning Paul Pierce or Ray Allen. You can bet they won’t be an afterthought in this series.

Celtics in 6.

*****

Third Quarter Collapse: If basketball is a game of matchups, then we’re in for one heckuva series between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics. Call it a war of attrition.

Orlando has a significant edge at the power positions. Talent is an issue for Boston, as is depth. Although Kendrick Perkins has shown he can defend Dwight Howard well, he’s also foul-prone. Glen Davis is neither quick enough to chase Rashard Lewis around the perimeter nor savvy enough to neutralize him in the post. The only rotation player behind Perkins and Davis is Brian Scalabrine, against whom Lewis has no trouble scoring. Doc Rivers might have to go to the end of his bench and call on the little-used Mikki Moore just to give the guys ahead of him a breather. They’re going to need it. Look for Lewis and Howard to have a big series.

Boston’s advantage is on the wings. Paul Pierce has consistently had his way with Hedo Turkoglu, but that’s not even the worst part of it for Orlando: it’s having J.J. Redick on an island against Ray Allen. The sinus injury to Courtney Lee, the Magic’s best perimeter defender, will sideline him for at least the first two games of this series. As such, the Magic will have to rely on Redick to chase Allen through myriad screens. Making matters worse is the fact that Mickael Pietrus is the only other wing player in Orlando’s rotation. He’ll have to spell Turkoglu and Redick, but he can’t do both at once. Stan Van Gundy will have to get creative, perhaps going with the rarely-seen “tall ball” lineup of Howard, Marcin Gortat, Lewis, Pietrus, and Rafer Alston.

So, who will it be? The Magic are more talented, more rested, and better coached, but have less experience. And their consistent frittering away of double-digit leads against the 76ers bodes ill against Boston, which consistently rallied back from similarly sized deficits against the Bulls. Additionally, the Celtics made valiant comeback efforts against the Magic in the last two games between these teams, only to fall short in the end.

Thus, I expect a close series with some exciting finishes. I also expect the Magic to win the series, due in large part to their defense and pronounced edge in the frontcourt.

Magic in 6.

*****

Kelly Dwyer: You have to go back and forth on this, because you’d be doing either side a disservice if you didn’t. The Celtics are limited, I’m not going to imagine that they aren’t; but they’ve also shown a predilection toward playing over their heads.

And the Magic? They boast the same predilection. Problem is, that attitude has been hard to find over the last month or so. Then again, talent usually outs. Then again, are you the one to pass on backing a team as potent as the Magic, playing a Boston club that is limited severely by comparison?

So, just expect competition. It might not always be fun to watch, but it will be admirable to behold.

Celtics in 6.

Also see: Denver-Dallas | Los Angeles-Houston

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105 Comments

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  1. gaborik10m
    1. Posted by gaborik10m Mon May 04, 2009 2:41 pm EDT

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    2 teams compete for the ultimate prize...a chance to be swept by the Cavs
    hijinx ensue
  2. bcatsfaninla
    2. Posted by bcatsfaninla Mon May 04, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    I'm one of the first for once.
    This one is tough, but I'm saying Orlando in 6. LWWLWW. Watch.
  3. bcatsfaninla
    3. Posted by bcatsfaninla Mon May 04, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    Put it this way, if the Celtics are gonna win it, they'll need all 7 games. Otherwise, this'll be Orlando's series.
  4. Joe B
    4. Posted by Joe B Mon May 04, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    I would love for the Cs to take it. But with the way they're struggling, they probably want a warm bath more than the championship. Magic takes it in 6 is my call.
  5. Joshua S
    5. Posted by Joshua S Mon May 04, 2009 2:48 pm EDT

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    Rondo the Black Gollum versus Dwight the Flying Elbow Howard! I'm thinking Black Gollum is going to be flying into the 5th row, after Howard lays into him.
  6. Colorado Kobe aka The All-Mighty Ball Hogg Messiah
    6. Posted by Colorado Kobe aka The All-Mighty Ball Hogg Messiah Mon May 04, 2009 2:48 pm EDT

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    Fudge rondo & Fudge Dwight Howard. This is the Dirty Bowl... We'll see which flop artist/WWE Wrestling champion comes out of this... I got Magic in 6
  7. Mark E
    7. Posted by Mark E Mon May 04, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    I predict the Magic will steal the first game and win in six.
  8. Rise With Us
    8. Posted by Rise With Us Mon May 04, 2009 3:04 pm EDT

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    This should be a good series but w/o KG I think Orlando will win.
  9. erik52201
    9. Posted by erik52201 Mon May 04, 2009 3:14 pm EDT

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    Split after 2, Magic take 3-1 lead back to Boston and blow lead only to get blown out in games 6 and 7...
    Lets go MAGIC!!!
  10. Erwin
    10. Posted by Erwin Mon May 04, 2009 3:16 pm EDT

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    i agree the magic will probably win game one and win in 6
    celtics had it enough with the bulls already...paul pierce at the end of game 7 had no sign of confident...he knew they barely got by the bull in round 1 and has no confident for the next round
  11. Joshua S
    11. Posted by Joshua S Mon May 04, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    This is really a tough call. In the first round I knew we shouldn't discount the chip on Boston's shoulder and they scrapped it out, but how far can they go on like that. Glen 'Stay-Puft' Davis has stepped it up and been effective, but he has no KG-like impact. As much as I'd like to see J.J. Redick prove himself, I don't see him doing it in the playoffs and that will have an impact on Orlando if they don't get their starter back.
    I'll go with Orlando in 6 too, but if the Celtics win I won't be surprised either.
  12. habs1rule
    12. Posted by habs1rule Mon May 04, 2009 3:19 pm EDT

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    Orlando only has a chance if they contain either Pierce or Ray Allen..Otherwise..The Magic is gone.
  13. Rafael G
    13. Posted by Rafael G Mon May 04, 2009 3:23 pm EDT

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    Magic in 6
  14. Neps
    14. Posted by Neps Mon May 04, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    This series is for The Magic. Orlando FTW!!!
  15. Tom L
    15. Posted by Tom L Mon May 04, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    Kelly writes, "the Magic, playing a Boston club that is limited severely by comparison?" but he doesn't mention the Garnett and Powe injuries. Is he saying the Celtics are limited regardless of having Garnnet and Powe? If so, he is just plan wrong. There is a reason the Magic are a lower seed. Over the course of a season they proved to be the more limited squad. That being said, without Garnett, it's hard to imagine the Celtics winning this. If you took a player of Garnett's quality off of any NBA they would likely have folded to the Bulls. His loss is a great disadvantage.
  16. dukefan509
    16. Posted by dukefan509 Mon May 04, 2009 3:35 pm EDT

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    watch jj shut down allen and score at least 15
  17. Spiderbandit88 - Read the Blogs, Not the Comments
    17. Posted by Spiderbandit88 - Read the Blogs, Not the Comments Mon May 04, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    I think this series should be fun to watch, almost as fun as the first.
    Rondo vs. Howard
  18. Jeffrey M
    18. Posted by Jeffrey M Mon May 04, 2009 4:09 pm EDT

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    somehow i think it's going to be boston in 7, even tho i want orlando to win. look at last season. first round-boston in 7, 2nd round-boston in 7, 3rd round-boston in 7...the only time it wasnt boston in 7 was against the lakers, but thats cuz lakers were missing ppl and were bruised up. so, i say boston in 7.
  19. pats 4 life
    19. Posted by pats 4 life Mon May 04, 2009 4:17 pm EDT

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    neither team will get swept by the cavs, i am so hoping for you guys to lose so i dont have to hear from you fans that talk even though they havent won anything
  20. Travis
    20. Posted by Travis Mon May 04, 2009 4:17 pm EDT

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    being swept by the Cavs?? are you on drugs?? Cavs won't sweep Celts or Magic..... or lakers if they go that Far..
    Get ready to smell coffee, and lots of it.... Cavs will LOSE to Magic or Celtics winner..... and I bet it is the magic.
  21. ontherockz72
    21. Posted by ontherockz72 Mon May 04, 2009 4:18 pm EDT

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    This one is gonna be tough for the Celtics.
    But Van Gundy out coaching Rivers?? No way!!
    Celtics in 7!
  22. James C
    22. Posted by James C Mon May 04, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    "The Magic are more talented, more rested, and better coached..."
    Really?! Better coached? Hmm...i seem to remember Doc Rivers winning a ring last year and winning coach of the year with the Magic. Has Van Gundy won either? Nope.
  23. KB24
    23. Posted by KB24 Mon May 04, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

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    Magic in 6.
    Then the Cavs and Magic in the Eastern Finals.....That would be great.
  24. Madan Kumar
    24. Posted by Madan Kumar Mon May 04, 2009 4:36 pm EDT

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    Orlando def got this, no doubt

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