Ball Don't Lie - NBA

Mon Apr 13, 2009 1:50 pm EDT

Executive of the Year? Daryl Morey


Makes sense, right? The guy that keeps throwing out stats and numbers to back up his observation picks the "numbers GM," the guy given a series of derisive nicknames ("it's a compliment, really!") by famous sports scribes while being alternately derided and somewhat feared as the boring future of team-creatin'. Not "feared" because people are scared of what they don't understand. Feared because, beyond the initial "he went to M.I.T.!" stories, we're out of easy column ideas with Daryl Morey.

The problem with your initial assumption about my appreciation for Houston's GM comes with the fact that while Morey does utilize one or several (I'm not sure) numbers-based systems for judging talent, his findings are kept secret, and we have no way of telling if he completely blindly follows what the numbers say like a raving madman, or if he mixes that data with scouting and anecdotal evidence.

We're guessing the latter, but because we have no way of knowing what his formulas are actually coming up with, the idea that he's using numbers in any significant way beyond how Red Auerbach used them means absolutely nothing to us. Because we can't see or judge the formulas, they become a moot point. For all we know, he could be doing brilliant work with the statistics, or he could be judging point guards based on their birthdays mixed with a pace-adjusted count of how many times they can say "Admiral Halsey" in a 30-second span.

Here's what we do know. Morey was given a smallish personnel sway over a solid Houston team that was coming off an injury-plagued 2005-06 turn that put the Rockets back into the lottery, while becoming the full-on GM a year later. Since then, he's made no huge moves. There hasn't been a giant turnaround, bent on either getting under the salary cap, or compiling expiring assets in order to trade for a superstar.

And if the Rockets are lucky, they'll finish with the same amount of wins this year as they finished with last season (55). Which would be just three more wins than the team's 2006-07 turn.

So why am I giving it to Morey?

Well, if it weren't for this guy's moves, Houston would be in the proverbial slop. Much, much more so than any other team would falter save for the moves of their particular GM.

You see, Morey was given the reins of a team with one superstar, and two guys making superstar money. The Rockets were capped-out, have been for years, and will be for the foreseeable future. And while it's not the end of the world when two players take up over 70 percent of your cap space, how well that 100 percent usually does depends on the contribution of that 70 percent.

And when one player is alternately brilliant but quite injury-prone (Yao Ming, though not this season), and alternately so-so as well as very injury-prone (Tracy McGrady), you better figure out a way to work around what is a pretty dodgy set of circumstances.

That means finding undervalued talent. That means accruing depth with very little resources in which to work with. That means finding guys who can contribute just as much as the so-called superstar, at 1/15th the price.

Or, in the case of Von Wafer, 1/25th the price. Once you factor defense and usage in, Wafer is giving the Rockets exactly what McGrady was giving them, while working for about $800k a season. McGrady goes down, be it for the season or a fortnight, Wafer steps into some of those open minutes, and the team continues apace. In most cases, the team plays better, because Wafer doesn't chuck and consider himself an All-Star, unlike McGrady.

(So, that's it. You're giving him the award because he signed Von Wafer, and because Tracy McGrady is a ballhog?)

No. I'm giving him the award because he, unlike most if not all other GMs, understands that players one through 15 count. That it's not OK merely to fill out that end of the bench with names that you've heard of ("I remember Jake Voskuhl! UConn, right?"), but guys who have to actually contribute when called upon. Because when you're an average team looking to overachieve and take that next step, every minute counts.

In the end, I'm giving it to Daryl Morey because he understands that points scored and advantages taken in the eighth minute of the second quarter mean just as much as points scored and advantages taken with a minute left to go in the game.

There's no magic to the Rockets. Rick Adelman has done a fine job coaching and the players work hard, but the reason this team has done so well despite major injuries and nearly 40 percent of its cap space going to a wasted roster spot in McGrady is because Morey has put together a roster of players that will usually contribute more than the players on the other team from the opening tip until the final buzzer. That's not a cliché, that's the truth.

And that's the best job of GMing that I've seen this year. And that's what this award is all about.

Danny Ferry? Fine job. Essentially turning Joe Smith into Mo Williams and then getting Joe Smith back was a masterstroke. Securing Delonte West was terrific. But he's also had to work around his previous mistakes. Morey inherited a capped-out team. Ferry created his, due to his work over the summer of 2005.

And there are smaller, important distinctions between the two that will no doubt be overshadowed by dunderheaded "65 wins vs. 55 wins, brah. Nuff said"-commentary.

The Cavs signed Lorenzen Wright last summer, a guy whose name you'd recognize, but someone who had clearly lost it. And in a stretch in mid-January, Wright was forced into playing big minutes for the Cavaliers in a couple of games, and spot minutes in others. Now, there are a few reasons why the Cavaliers lost two of those four games; but there are a few reasons why the Rockets could have lost two of four against teams they were better than or evenly matched-up with during their own stretches.

The difference? The Rockets have the depth to hold things up despite myriad injuries. Luis Scola begats Carl Landry who gives way to Chuck Hayes; all unheralded players who defend like mad and are efficient offensively besides shortcomings.

Wright? He gives the Cavs nine points and nine rebounds during that four-game stretch, is overmatched defensively, misses seven of ten shots, and isn't heard from again for the rest of the season. Darnell Jackson suffered through the same fate from mid-March to early April.

(So, you're basing your argument around backup-to-backup power forwards?)

Do you want to know who I think did the best job of putting a team together this year, or not? The difference is small, and quite boring, but there is a difference.

The best teams in the NBA will only win by an average of eight or nine points. And that's a ton. Most other teams are trying to work from that negative four point-to-positive four point margin. And that's where Morey helps turn the tide. First, read this quote, and breakdown from Howard Beck of the New York Times, on what counts most to Morey:

"We track everything imaginable," Morey said. "Each pick-and-roll, what's the result of it? Each guy on the floor, how efficient they are. A lot of it, we end up not using. But we track it so that we have it available in case the question comes up where it becomes relevant."

Whatever revelations Morey has found for assessing players, they remain proprietary for now. But at the team level, he said, there are four statistics that are now widely accepted as indicative of a team's success rate: "effective" field-goal percentage (a combination of 2-point and 3-point percentages), rebounding and turnover rates (which determine how many more possessions a team gets), and free-throw edge (in attempts, not percentage).

That last part is significant, and it's something that a lot of fans don't see when they casually work through a game.

Let's say Chuck Hayes picks up two offensive rebounds over the course of the first minute and a half of the fourth quarter, and both times he gets fouled on a putback attempt. Hayes will knock in two of his four attempted free throws, everyone will laugh at his free throw stroke, the crowd might groan at the thought of only scoring two points when four were possible, and the whole thing will be forgotten seconds later.

But four minutes later, with Yao Ming having been fouled a couple of times and Ron Artest getting corralled as he dashed to the other side of the court after stealing the rock, the Rockets will be in the penalty. And the next time Aaron Brooks takes a Tyson Chandler hip to his side as Chandler overplays the screen and roll 25-feet from the hoop, he'll get two free throws, and he'll make both.

And this means the Rockets have created four points out of absolutely nothing. Four points that weren't going to be there, because in most other cases (with 75 percent of other power forwards), those offensive rebounds were defensive rebounds for the other team.

And those four points, in a league that is just trying to come out on the winning side of 96-92, mean so, so much.

I don't want to tell you that he's changing anything. He hasn't. Most teams track possessions, if not to the same extent as the Rockets, than pretty damn close to what they do. Most teams have some sort of statistical bent to their analysis, and most teams allow for that bent to at least have some impact on personnel decisions. This guy isn't a genius. He's not a step and a half ahead of his colleagues. He's just better at being a GM than anyone else, right now.

Otis Smith inherited Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Hedo Turkoglu; and his biggest move was to wildly overpay Rashard Lewis in 2007, a move that could cost him Turkoglu this summer. Mitch Kupchak has done fine work since 2006, but the Lakers have been getting killed defensively in the backcourt all year, while the Rockets managed to go out and get Kyle Lowry to shore up their issues in that area.

Kevin Pritchard? Despite other GMs distaste for his style, he's a worthy winner. Danny Ainge? As much as the Celtics have faltered with their best player on the sidelines, well, re-read that sentence. And they've held onto the second seed with lower-rung draft picks that Ainge has selected. He's done a terrific job.

John Paxson gave Chicago the offensive boost it needed by trading for Brad Miller and John Salmons (while unloading Andres Nocioni's contract), but that trade (in the end) basically made up for the wins Chicago lost due to the on-court training of the coach he hired. Still, fine job.

The Denver duo of Mark Warkentien and Rex Chapman did a fantastic job. They understood how Marcus Camby was probably overvalued due to his block and rebound totals (a deal that was initially ridiculed by people who don't understand the league), saved their owner a ton of money, and understood what Joe Dumars was after (expiring deals) on their way to grabbing Chauncey Billups.

My issue with them is, what happens next year? When everyone is a year older (and, save for Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, a little worse), and still making all this money? That's a minor quibble, though, as that duo more than deserves the award.

Sam Presti? He might be a victim of what LeBron James had to go through in 2006 and 2008. He'll have plenty of time to win that award.

In the end, though, Morey's done the best job.

Fair-weather NBA fans look at Houston's roster and think, "what a load of no-names. Yao Ming and Ron Artest must be doing a hell of a job holding that mess together."

People who have a deeper knowledge of this league look at that roster and think, "what enviable depth. It's a shame Yao turns the ball over too much and Ron thinks of himself as just a step below Kobe."

And that's why he won't win the award. And that's why this post will be laughed off. Too many Lorenzen Wrights follow and cover the NBA. Not enough Carl Landrys do.

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84 Comments

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  1. Colorado Kobe aka The All-Mighty Ball Hogg MEssiah
    1. Posted by Colorado Kobe aka The All-Mighty Ball Hogg MEssiah Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    1st!
    Um i better be Danny Ferry hands down. We went from 45-27 last year to probably 67-15 this year... 22 game jump from the trade of Damon Jones & Joe Smith for Mo Williams... Best record in the League & about to tie best home record of all time then followed by a championship... Its all Ferrys
  2. Fran T
    2. Posted by Fran T Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    great article. it's nice to learn something reading about pro basketball. happens too infrequently.
  3. A Yahoo! User
    3. Posted by A Yahoo! User Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:29 pm EDT

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    "But at the team level, he said, there are four statistics that are now widely accepted as indicative of a team's success rate: "effective" field-goal percentage (a combination of 2-point and 3-point percentages), rebounding and turnover rates (which determine how many more possessions a team gets), and free-throw edge (in attempts, not percentage)."
    This is what kills me most about the Celtics/Cavs matchup. The Celtics do 2 of those 4 things poorly - they're a turnover prone team, and the Cavaliers basically cheat when it comes to fouls (LeBron 5 straight nights without a foul, 1.4 PF/game at home, 2.0 PF/game on the road, etcetc). Coincidentally, these two factors are two of the most frustrating things to watch when they're not going you're way - my team being sloppy with the ball while the other team gets every call. WOE IS ME
  4. Boomhauer
    4. Posted by Boomhauer Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

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    Mo Wiliams for Damon Jones? That move alone should get Ferry GM of the Year.
  5. Hayesfan
    5. Posted by Hayesfan Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    KD as always I love that you go farther than just looking at what the surface looks like to delve into what "mainstream media (I mean you ESPN) thinks is the truth"
    I know that it's unlikely that Morey gets recognized for what he does to actually win the award he deserves, but we Rockets fans appreciate our Magician Morey every time a player goes down and there is someone on the bench just waiting to pick up the slack.
  6. AJ
    6. Posted by AJ Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:01 pm EDT

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    An aging Bobby Jackson, a seeming bust in Donte Green, and a worthless first rounder for one of the best defenders in the leauge who absolutely detroyed LBJ,and is the reason why they are 5 game winners and are going to te playoffs.
    Also, The Rockets got a young aggressive guard in Kyle Lowry, for Alston who has been hurting them with hs bricks and airballs.
    He also got diamond in the rough in Von Wafer who seemed to just be a training camp invtiee,and now is he sparkplug in their offense.
    NO MOVE ALONE should determine whether a guy is Exec. of the Year.
  7. Colorado Kobe aka The All-Mighty Ball Hogg MEssiah
    7. Posted by Colorado Kobe aka The All-Mighty Ball Hogg MEssiah Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    when you have the best record in the league in the & a 20+ game jump from 1 single acquisition... I think it makes it easy to see. Especially Damon Jones & Joe Smith for an all-star. NO ONE thought Mo would have the impact that he's had... Except Danny Ferry......
  8. Chris M
    8. Posted by Chris M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    KD, let me know if you think Landry is still exec of the year after Portland bounces them in the first round.
    What a joke.
  9. Rockets
    9. Posted by Rockets Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:37 pm EDT

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    "And if the Rockets are lucky, they'll finish with the same amount of wins this year as they finished with last season (55). Which would be just three more wins than the team's 2006-07 turn."
    that's impossible the rockets already have 28 losses
  10. Kirk T
    10. Posted by Kirk T Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:13 pm EDT

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    I've only started reading this blog everyday earlier this season (had read once in a while last season). Sometimes when you gush about Kobe or CP3 or the Lakers offense or Lebron, I love it as a baseketball and Laker fan. But I must say, KD, this was the best post I've read here all year. Kudos.
  11. Z
    11. Posted by Z Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    Danny Ferry has a maturing LeBron... you'd have to be a moron of Millen-esque proportions to not be able to create a winning team with him.
  12. JZ
    12. Posted by JZ Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:03 pm EDT

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    kevin pritchard should win every year. name another GM who has improved a team's win total by 10 every single year. Daryl Morey?!?! He traded nicolas batum for joey dorsey and darrell arthur! LMAO he got prichslapped!!!
  13. Jake C
    13. Posted by Jake C Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:00 pm EDT

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    nice read, kd. i clicked the link from clutchfans and again, you delivered. whether other fans agree or not, this article is fact-based and well reasoned. kudos!
  14. Tommy S
    14. Posted by Tommy S Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:23 pm EDT

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    Yeah, JZ, the Rockets traded Batum for Dorsey/Arthur. But then we traded Arthur off for Donte Greene. And do you know who we get for Donte Greene? No? Ron Artest. Yeah, I guess Morey is stupid for managing trades to go from Batum to Artest. TERRIBLE.
    Do a little research before you post stupid things.
  15. LT
    15. Posted by LT Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:53 pm EDT

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    8. Posted by Chris M Mon Apr 13, 2009 4:11 pm EDT
    "KD, let me know if you think Landry is still exec of the year after Portland bounces them in the first round.
    What a joke. "
    ^You're the joke, Landry is a power forward for the Rockets, MOREY is the GM. Bandwagon Portland fan idiot.
  16. Jermaine
    16. Posted by Jermaine Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:37 pm EDT

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    Good article as always Kelly. It is good to read a basketball article that goes in depth with research to prove to your points besides the usual Ferry deserves the Exec. of the Year because the Cavs won the most games this year that we will be hearing from the experts at the four letter in the upcoming weeks. I know the Blazer and Cav fans are going to take over the comments section saying how wrong you are but you give credit to both Pritchard and Ferry. Keep up the good work Kelly.
  17. KD
    17. Posted by KD Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    Chris M,
    I wasn't aware the award was handed to whatever team wins a first round series. Does Kupchak immediately become better than Pritchard win the Blazers lose to the Lakers in the second round?
    I am aware that the award is for the personnel boss who has done the most with what he's been given, and 1-15, Morey has done the best job.
  18. Anton
    18. Posted by Anton Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    You gotta give it to him. The Rockets are the only team where if all their players got injured, they'd just get some people out from the audience and win. It is astonishing how the Rockets win without their main players. If they had some better offense then they could go far. Allen Iverson would be good for this team though. Basically a shorter version of T-mac.
  19. Shawn Merkwood
    19. Posted by Shawn Merkwood Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:33 pm EDT

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    Excellent article! Good analysis and facts. DM deserves it for the good moves that he's made alone with not making drastically bad ones. Waiting out on Landry and not giving him a bad contract was a good move which other GM's would have offered a bad long-term contract.
    However, Danny Ferry will win this just because one move. He has made many bad moves over the year which could hurt the cavs.
  20. ASGisChillin
    20. Posted by ASGisChillin Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

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    great analysis as always. I agree with you on this. Unlike the mvp award which often is given to the best player on the best team with no thought, you cant use the same logic with executive. a great nba exec doesnt just get a player or 2 to put around the best player on the planet, they also look beyond the current season to find undervalued or developing talent. thats why ferry doesnt deserve it. although the mo williams trade was certainly a good one, you could make the argument that the cavs would still win 55 games without him. lebron is that good. meanwhile, without those role players on the rockets bench, how many games would they win. I would say they would be lucky to get to 45. All you have to do is remember their win streak from last season to understand how important those players are. stars are crucial on an nba team but so are role players, the best GM's know that.
  21. mandoesmybackhurt
    21. Posted by mandoesmybackhurt Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    admiral halsey? has someone been listening to the "ram" album today?
  22. DAVID
    22. Posted by DAVID Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:49 pm EDT

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    I can't believe they let this guy write articles... for money??!!??... I have read several of your post Dwyer and you everyone of them has cost me points off my IQ. Between your L*ker lover articles and this inane drivel I have to say you are lucky to have a job... IMO
  23. tim
    23. Posted by tim Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:10 pm EDT

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    michael lewis wrote a great article in the new york times about the rockets management and how they have incorporated little known statistics into their philosophy (much like the oakland a's and moneyball). you should definitely chekc it out
  24. Will
    24. Posted by Will Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    thank you for recognizing morey!
    in the last two years houston has added the following essentially free guys - luis scola, carl landry, aaron brooks, kyle lowry, von wafer, c hayes. it's trades/signings? the two top ranked defenders at their positions - battier and artest - and they were very reasonable signings money-wise. all with draft picks in the 20s in above. there are three comparable benches - la, bos, por. boston's bench was also built, in large part, by morey. portland's is filled with high draft picks. la has a strong bench partly because a former laker simply donated an all star to them, along with very shrewd drafting/signing.
    cleveland - win without 40% of your payroll this year - win without lebron. could cleveland get to 55 wins without lbj? i'm thinking no freaking way. could cle get to 30 wins without lbj? houston has reached 55 without mcgrady, who eats the same cap space.
    portland has done a good job lately. overall. but as long as odom looks like the second coming of olowokandi and durant fills the box score...its tough to say their gm is the best. and yes, batum is a decent looking player, his upside is rashard lewis, which isn't bad - i'll still take ron artest over him - and that's what that deal was.
  25. Anton
    25. Posted by Anton Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    David W - why do you CONTINUE to read his articles if you don't like them? That is just stupidity by choice.

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